Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure
Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: arce1988 on May 14, 2013, 02:56:53 PM
-
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/14/news/economy/deficits-falling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Budget shortfalls are projected to increase later in the coming decade ... because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs and growing interest payments on the federal debt," the CBO said in its report.
-
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/14/news/economy/deficits-falling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Budget shortfalls are projected to increase later in the coming decade ... because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs and growing interest payments on the federal debt," the CBO said in its report.
if you post any more about debt, I'll out your whole neighborhood and post up your junior high school yearbook photos....YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED !!!!!!!
:-\
-
if you post any more about debt, I'll out your whole neighborhood and post up your junior high school yearbook photos....YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED !!!!!!!
:-\
lol
-
What can China do ?, if U.S. tell them : we a not paying back, NOTHING ;D
-
What can China do ?, if U.S. tell them : we a not paying back, NOTHING ;D
they might close all their restaurants
dogs and cats everywhere will breath a sigh of relief
-
What can China do ?, if U.S. tell them : we a not paying back, NOTHING ;D
They've been in the works to make their currency the world reserve currency, in addition, if they just announced they wanted their debts paid and were no longer investing in the U.S., the market would crash causing a world wide domino effect. they don't have to lift a finger to fuck us.
-
Stock market doesn't seem to care! ;D
-
Stock market doesn't seem to care! ;D
That's because it's another bubble.
-
"In its updated budget outlook released Tuesday, the CBO now estimates the annual deficit for this fiscal year will be $642 billion or 4% of GDP. That's $203 billion less than the agency estimated a few months ago. The CBO attributes the improved estimate to higher-than-expected tax revenues and an increase in payments to the Treasury by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
By 2015, the deficit will fall to its lowest point of the next decade - 2.1% of GDP. And it will remain below 3% until 2019, at which point it will start to increase again. Deficits below 3% are considered sustainable because it means budget shortfalls are not growing faster than the economy.
Similarly, the CBO now estimates the country's total debt - the sum of annual deficits accrued over decades - will fall to roughly 71% of GDP in 2018 and 2019. That's four percentage points below where it is today."
What's this about Obama's debt-laden policies destroying the United States? The fear over Obama's deficits was always silly insofar as it implied these deficits were causally responsible for economic problems here and now: there is zero substantive research indicating that debt-to-GDP ratios in the range the USG currently maintains are harmful to the economy and countercyclical fiscal/monetary policy (government spending/tweaking interest rates/purchasing assets) is a widely accepted precept of macroeconomics with plenty of empirical support.
Yes, long-term structural problems remain unaddressed, yes the situation in the job market is very disconcerting and Obamacare may exacerbate it, and yes, no one is precisely sure what will happen when the Fed takes its foot off of the quantitative petal. But these issues are independent of my point about the short-term deficits of the Obama Administration.
-
What can China do ?, if U.S. tell them : we a not paying back, NOTHING ;D
It's more about the principle. Not paying China would cause an uproar across the world and set a precedent that would send foreign markets into chaos.
Out of the 16.7 trillion dollar debt the US has, China owns roughly about 1.2 trillion of it. That is pretty substantial.
Remember though, being in debt has been part of American history. The only time America was free of debt was back under the presidency of Andrew Jackson. He wiped out our debt, but, sadly two years later, we had a 6 year long economic depression (it was the second longest depression suffered by this country, second to that of the great depression).
"1"
-
That's because it's another bubble.
(http://cdn.mature-beauty.com/pics/2011-08-28/24546_08.jpg)
-
P.S. Compare the fact that our debt-to-GDP will be 71% in a few years to the Romney counterfactual where -- assuming he carried out the major planks of his stated policy program -- we'd be spending more on defense (building battleships for when the aliens come), tax rates and thus revenue would be significantly lower, investor uncertainty would rise exponentially as a major piece of legislation was dismantled, and a Eurozone-esque austerity regime would be instituted, probably with similarly disastrous effects for demand.
-
That's because it's another bubble.
I sure hope not. It is nice to see my IRA return to where it was. I am afraid u may be right, bc it don't make much sense.
-
stock market isnt representative of much.
Fed policy is behind the dramatic rise along with stock buy backs and slightly improved economic numbers. Take the ride and get out before fed policy changes.
-
When you have the feds doing unlimited quantitative easing pumping 30-40 BILLION per month in the system and keeping inflation low, that tells you alot. This is all another bubble but a bigger one than before. Eventually hyper-inflation will ensue and you can only imagine what happens then.
-
When you have the feds doing unlimited quantitative easing pumping 30-40 BILLION per month in the system and keeping inflation low, that tells you alot. This is all another bubble but a bigger one than before. Eventually hyper-inflation will ensue and you can only imagine what happens then.
Very good post...and what comes next is the largest asset transfer in human history as the rich deleverage their debt to zero.
-
indeed, the part about the depression is often forgotten to mention by ppl who think jackson did very well.
jackson also did some other not so nice things, im sure you know, youre well read
yes seems so.
why would anyone whose broke anyway and lives from paycheck to paycheck be affraid of hyperinflation?
remove sand from vagine, life would be pretty much the same for the vast majority of people,even with hyperinflation.
bc having nothing or even nothing but debt equals having nothing.
No it wouldn't the prices on EVERYTHING would increase insanely, only the rich would be able to afford it. While everyone else would rob, kill and steal just to survive. Economics101 genius.
If that were to happen, you can guarantee there'd be martial law.
-
Hyperinflation destroys the middle class...not the rich.
Lenin said to destroy the bourgeoisie is grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.
-
The way to crush the bourgeoisie, is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.
Vladimir Lenin
Great quote
-
When you have the feds doing unlimited quantitative easing pumping 30-40 BILLION per month in the system and keeping inflation low, that tells you alot. This is all another bubble but a bigger one than before. Eventually hyper-inflation will ensue and you can only imagine what happens then.
The feds $85 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities are aimed at holding down long-term interest rates and nudging investors into stocks to drive up the market. This is happening, however, the fed will back down on this policy as economic numbers improve. I believe this will hurt the treasury in a big way because they will be selling this crap at loss and disrupt the MBS market. So what's the exit strategy because they can't do this forever? Won't be pretty and rates will have to rise as they should have already if not artificially held down.
Dog chasing tail fed policy to prop failing economy! Unemployment has never truly moved and companies continue to hoard cash and reduce head count/wages.
-
Great post Walter
You can NOT ride the tiger for EVER
-
Amnesty on illegal aliens will make things much worse.
-
He who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.
Proverb
Sometimes it is more dangerous to stop doing a dangerous thing than it is to continue doing it.
Jill: You shouldn't take out another loan. You're already too far in debt. Jane: If I don't take out a loan, I can't make the payments on the loans I already have. You know how it is—she who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.
-
Amnesty on illegal aliens will make things much worse.
No it won't. It's not amnesty first off. In the long run it is like it but it's not amnesty by the definition.
-
He who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.
Proverb
Sometimes it is more dangerous to stop doing a dangerous thing than it is to continue doing it.
Jill: You shouldn't take out another loan. You're already too far in debt. Jane: If I don't take out a loan, I can't make the payments on the loans I already have. You know how it is—she who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.
Jill is frigid. Jane is an ignorant slut.
:D
-
they might close all their restaurants
dogs and cats everywhere will breath a sigh of relief
Possums in Australian case ;D
-
Great post Walter
You can NOT ride the tiger for EVER
Exactly and when you add the rise in welfare, boomers on social security/medicare, added medicaid rolls, over taxation on all brackets to pay for gov waste etc - the fall from the Tiger is going to leave more than a mark! The Oligarchy in Washington on both sides of the aisle need to go.
-
No it won't. It's not amnesty first off. In the long run it is like it but it's not amnesty by the definition.
Oh ok I guess the article I read on CNN was wrong, they been making up shit since Adonis exposed them during the Boston bombings.
Arce1988 that is a nice proverb.
-
They've been in the works to make their currency the world reserve currency, in addition, if they just announced they wanted their debts paid and were no longer investing in the U.S., the market would crash causing a world wide domino effect. they don't have to lift a finger to fuck us.
Several western countries now store theirs cash in Australia, probably Russian "businessman's" too.
US, should convert to the new currency (cowboy would be good name) & make $ worthless ;D
-
Thanks to both of you as you are two great posters
walter and calf
-
stock market isnt representative of much.
they bullshit with numbers only, no real banknotes/gold coins there
-
Oh ok I guess the article I read on CNN was wrong, they been making up shit since Adonis exposed them during the Boston bombings.
Arce1988 that is a nice proverb.
Amnesty is what Reagan did in the 80s as a part of his Immigration Reform Bill, meaning all that are here can stay, you just have to come forward. That was with 2.9 million "Messicans". Today it's over 11 million illegal Messicans, assuming the bill passes they'll get a chance to come forward and wait in line behind everyone else for a chance to become a citizen. The waiting period can be up to 10 years. That's not even close to amnesty. Anyway, they aren't the problem fiscally. The Banks, then the government are the problems.
-
Thanks to both of you as you are two great posters
walter and calf
Thank you Arc. The gym is a passion along with the stock and debt markets. What I see is the most vexing convergence of negative economic factors I have seen yet the irrational exuberance continues and the presses are working overtime!
-
Thank you Arc. The gym is a passion along with the stock and debt markets. What I see is the most vexing convergence of negative economic factors I have seen yet the irrational exuberance continues and the presses are working overtime!
Walter how would one hedge against this BS stock market and coming hyperinflation outside of gold/silver?
-
Just imagine US debt payments at 5% interest rate.....bwahahahahaha
-
Exactly. I do not buy the QE bull shit. Shit is going to break at some point. It will not be a nice sight.
-
Walter how would one hedge against this BS stock market and coming hyperinflation outside of gold/silver?
Guns, ammo, farm equipment, motor vehicles, collectibles, heavy machinery....businesses, rental properties...anything that has durable value.
Preferably income producing.
-
also karatbars ::)
-
Walter how would one hedge against this BS stock market and coming hyperinflation outside of gold/silver?
The fed is so transparent a market exit can almost be timed based on fed minutes. I always ease out when I feel movement has become irrational and almost always miss the top. My hedge is what everyone bailed on in 08 and that's open market municipal dumps which happen when credit markets are in question or the market is topping or crashing. I picked up 6% yields out of those dumps and took my hits with all the re-ratings by S&P and Morningstar. They soared as rates dropped!
Conversely I would continue to put cash to work in them in an inflationary environment with rates rising. In a hyper environment I would hold more Tips, select dividend stocks, property, uranium and municipal ladder. Have some of this covered.
Sorry long winded
-
ofc there would be martial law, to prevent a civil war.
you dont know shit about hyperinflation, you think having gold would save you, of all people, how original.
i have family who lived through hyperinflation.my statement stands.
Guns, ammo, drugs...ability to impose ones will on others using violence.
-
http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hyper.htm#YUGO
Read about Yugoslavia. NO bull shit.
-
The Worst Episode of Hyperinflation in History!
Yugoslavia 1993-1994
Under Tito Yugoslavia ran a budget deficit that was financed by printing money. This led to rates of inflation of 15 to 25 percent per year. After Tito the Communist Party pursued progressively more irrational economic policies. These irrational policies and the breakup of Yugoslavia (Yugoslavia now consists of only Serbia and Montenegro) led to heavier reliance upon printing or otherwise creating money to finance the operation of the government and the socialist economy. This created the worst hyperinflation in history up to this time.
By the early 1990s the government used up all of its own hard currency reserves and proceeded to loot the hard currency savings of private citizens. It did this by imposing more and more difficult restrictions on private citizens' access to their hard currency savings in government banks.
The government operated a network of stores at which goods were supposed to be available at artificially low prices. In practice these store seldom had anything to sell and goods were only available at free markets where the prices were far above the official prices that goods were supposed to sell at in government stores. In particular, all of the government gasoline stations eventually were closed and gasoline was available only from roadside dealers whose operation consisted of a parked car with a plastic can of gasoline sitting on the hood. The market price was the equivalent of $8 per gallon.
The combination of the shortage of gasoline and the government confiscation of German Deutsche mark deposits created a bizarre episode. A man after repeated attempts to get the government to let him withdraw his Deutsche mark deposits as Deutsche marks announced the was going to commit suicide in front of a government building by dousing himself with gasoline and igniting it. On the appointed day he showed up with a canister of gasoline. The media was there to film his protest. The police were also there and arrested the man. Afterwards the television station got numerous phone calls asking what had happened to the canister of gasoline.
Most car owners gave up driving, and tried to rely upon public transportation. But the Belgrade transit authority (GSP) did not have the funds necessary for keeping its fleet of 1,200 buses operating. Instead it ran fewer than 500 buses. These buses were overcrowded and the ticket collectors could not get aboard to collect fares. Thus GSP could not collect fares, even though it was desperately short of funds.
-
Delivery trucks, ambulances, fire trucks, and garbage trucks were also short of fuel. The government announced that gasoline would not be sold to farmers for fall harvests and planting.
Despite the government desperate printing of money it still did not have the funds to keep the infrastructure in operation. Pot holes developed in the streets, elevators stopped functioning, and construction projects were closed down. The unemployment rate exceeded 30 percent.
The government tried to counter the inflation by imposing price controls. But when inflation continued the government price controls made the price producers were getting ridiculous low they stopped producing. In October of 1993 the bakers stopped making bread and Belgrade was without bread for a week. The slaughter houses refused to sell meat to the state stores and this meant meat became unavailable for many sectors of the population. Other stores closed down for inventory rather than sell their goods at the government mandated prices. When farmers refused to sell to the government at the artificially low prices the government dictated, government irrationally used hard currency to buy food from foreign sources rather than remove the price controls. The Ministry of Agriculture also risked creating a famine by selling farmers only 30 percent of the fuel they needed for planting and harvesting.
Later the government tried to curb inflation by requiring stores to file paper work every time they raised a price. This meant that many of the stores employees had to devote their time to filling out these government forms. Instead of curbing inflation this policy actually increased inflation because the stores tended increase prices by a bigger jump so that they would not have file forms for another price increase so soon.
In October of 1993 the monetary authorities created a new currency unit. One new dinar was worth one million of the old dinars. In effect, the government simply removed six zeroes from the paper money. This of course did not stop the inflation and between October 1, 1993 and January 24, 1995 prices increased by 5 quadrillion percent. This number is a 5 with 15 zeroes after it.
In November of 1993 the government postponed turning on the heat in the state apartment buildings in which most of the population lived. The residents reacted to this withholding of heat by using electrical space heaters which were inefficient and overloaded the electrical system. The government power company then had to order blackouts to conserve electricity.
-
The social structure began to collapse. Thieves robbed hospitals and clinics of scarce pharmaceuticals and then sold them in front of the same places they robbed. The railway workers went on strike and closed down Yugoslavia's rail system.
In a large psychiatric hospital 87 patients died in November of 1994. The hospital had no heat, there was no food or medicine and the patients were wandering around naked.
The government set the level of pensions. The pensions were to be paid at the post office but the government did not give the post offices enough funds to pay these pensions. The pensioners lined up in long lines outside the post office. When the post office ran out of state funds to pay the pensions the employees would pay the next pensioner in line whatever money they received when someone came in to mail a letter or package. With inflation being what it was the value of the pension would decrease drastically if the pensioners went home and came back the next day. So they waited in line knowing that the value of their pension payment was decreasing with each minute they had to wait in line.
Many Yugoslavian businesses refused to take the Yugoslavian currency at all and the German Deutsche Mark effectively became the currency of Yugoslavia. But government organizations, government employees and pensioners still got paid in Yugoslavian dinars so there was still an active exchange in dinars. On November 12, 1993 the exchange rate was 1 DM = 1 million new dinars. By November 23 the exchange rate was 1 DM = 6.5 million new dinars and at the end of November it was 1 DM = 37 million new dinars. At the beginning of December the bus workers went on strike because their pay for two weeks was equivalent to only 4 DM when it cost a family of four 230 DM per month to live. By December 11th the exchange rate was 1 DM = 800 million and on December 15th it was 1 DM = 3.7 billion new dinars. The average daily rate of inflation was nearly 100 percent. When farmers selling in the free markets refused to sell food for Yugoslavian dinars the government closed down the free markets. On December 29 the exchange rate was 1 DM = 950 billion new dinars.
About this time there occurred a tragic incident. As usual pensioners were waiting in line. Someone passed by their line carrying bags of groceries from the free market. Two pensioners got so upset at their situation and the sight of someone else with groceries that they had heart attacks and died right there.
At the end of December the exchange rate was 1 DM = 3 trillion dinars and on January 4, 1994 it was 1 DM = 6 trillion dinars. On January 6th the government declared that the German Deutsche was an official currency of Yugoslavia. About this time the government announced a new new dinar which was equal to 1 billion of the old new dinars. This meant that the exchange rate was 1 DM = 6,000 new new dinars. By January 11 the exchange rate had reached a level of 1 DM = 80,000 new new dinars. On January 13th the rate was 1 DM = 700,000 new new dinars and six days later it was 1 DM = 10 million new new dinars.
-
ofc there would be martial law, to prevent a civil war.
you dont know shit about hyperinflation, you think having gold would save you, of all people, how original.
i have family who lived through hyperinflation.my statement stands.
Yes, I don't know shit but everyone of my statements were correct. ::)
Move along or ease up on the drugs.
-
The telephone bills for the government operated phone system were collected by the postmen. People postponed paying these bills as much as possible and inflation reduced their real value to next to nothing. One postman found that after trying to collect on 780 phone bills he got nothing so the next day he stayed home and paid all of the phone bills himself for the equivalent of a few American pennies.
Here is another illustration of the irrationality of the government's policies. James Lyon, a journalist, made twenty hours of international telephone calls from Belgrade in December of 1993. The bill for these calls was 1000 new new dinars and it arrived on January 11th. At the exchange rate for January 11th of 1 DM = 150,000 dinars it would have cost less than one German pfennig to pay the bill. But the bill was not due until January 17th and by that time the exchange rate reached 1 DM = 30 million dinars. Yet the free market value of those twenty hours of international telephone calls was about $5,000. So the government despite being strapped for hard currency gave James Lyon $5,000 worth of phone calls essentially for nothing.
It was against the law to refuse to accept personal checks. Some people wrote personal checks knowing that in the few days it took for the checks to clear inflation would wipe out as much as 90 percent of the cost of covering those checks.
On January 24, 1994 the government introduced the super dinar equal to 10 million of the new new dinars. The Yugoslav government's official position was that the hyperinflation occurred "because of the unjustly implemented sanctions against the Serbian people and state."
-
Soon after the inflation rate became extreme, the monetary authorities stopped putting the picture of known people on the bills, because those bills would soon become virtually worthless, and this was considered an affront to the person depicted. Instead, the monetary authorities began using generic figures such as that of the young girl shown on the above bill.
Source: James Lyon, "Yugoslavia's Hyperinflation, 1993-1994: A Social History," East European Politics and Societies vol. 10, no. 2 (Spring 1996), pp. 293-327.
-
This is what happens when people stop seeking self sufficiency and become dependant on the state. The state uses these crisis to increase power.
You cannot centrally manage an organism as complex as "the market".
-
Arce 1988, you become former Yugoslavia (Serbia/Montenegro) financial historian, regarding to Belgrade's own informations
they have + 4000 former Generals as pensioners ::) ::) ::)
-
exactly.they can do absolutely nothing.
china is an absolute 3rd world country shithole, a huge one, and infested with bad air and undrinkable water,lol.
if they lose the revenue from the usa consumers, theyd be in alot of shit.
china is and was on the way up, but theyre far from solidly established.
usa owns and runs the world, and i think that not even too bad, if one looks at the alternatives.
China has no ball to take over Taiwan, against mighty U.S. military power no any chances at all.
-
the bills would get 3 additional zeros every couple days ;D
everyone was a multi millionaire ;D
the people arranged themselves in a very simple and overlooked way, one which often isnt brought up when internet smartasses talk on this.
ppl simply used a foreign currency.its that simple.
hell, montenegro does even have an official currency,as we speak right now, they simply use the euro, without the european central banks ok or consent.
this is the problem with some americans, they arent able to think outside their borders.theres other currencys.
hell, usa had tobacco as official currency not to long ago.
btw, the yugoslav currency, as soon they opened the market for personal loans, was a gamble and scheme to rip off other currencys, and everyone knew full well.
but things are bit different, the jugos wouldnt mind living a farmers life and eating shit food, they didnt know any better.
not so sure if that would apply to the usa.
itd have some positive sides for wiggs, the guy is fat, he lose some weight. ;D
but overall, the pl who had nothing before, were left with nothing afterwards,no big change.
and the middle class,haha, the soooo pround middle class-the only difference to the have nothings is they can live for 1,2 months without income-,well they got slightly degraded to poor with nothing.
i find it mindboggling that the ppl who are against a welfare state somehow think that the vast majority can be middle class safely and forever, in the very same system they critizise.
either way, thinking too much about money and basing their life on just that is retarded and will make one enjoy life less and always be worried.
to each their own.
u sick fuck old guido junkie.. you re a fucking mess
-
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/14/news/economy/deficits-falling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Budget shortfalls are projected to increase later in the coming decade ... because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs and growing interest payments on the federal debt," the CBO said in its report.
Such bullshit. The whole debt thing is the biggest lie in history. How can you be in debt to yourself when you make the actual money you claim to be in debt with?
It's like the ocean complaining that it's thirsty
-
I love Serbia.
-
mmurica will just print some more money and blow everthyng up -
-
"In its updated budget outlook released Tuesday, the CBO now estimates the annual deficit for this fiscal year will be $642 billion or 4% of GDP. That's $203 billion less than the agency estimated a few months ago. The CBO attributes the improved estimate to higher-than-expected tax revenues and an increase in payments to the Treasury by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
By 2015, the deficit will fall to its lowest point of the next decade - 2.1% of GDP. And it will remain below 3% until 2019, at which point it will start to increase again. Deficits below 3% are considered sustainable because it means budget shortfalls are not growing faster than the economy.
Similarly, the CBO now estimates the country's total debt - the sum of annual deficits accrued over decades - will fall to roughly 71% of GDP in 2018 and 2019. That's four percentage points below where it is today."
What's this about Obama's debt-laden policies destroying the United States? The fear over Obama's deficits was always silly insofar as it implied these deficits were causally responsible for economic problems here and now: there is zero substantive research indicating that debt-to-GDP ratios in the range the USG currently maintains are harmful to the economy and countercyclical fiscal/monetary policy (government spending/tweaking interest rates/purchasing assets) is a widely accepted precept of macroeconomics with plenty of empirical support.
Yes, long-term structural problems remain unaddressed, yes the situation in the job market is very disconcerting and Obamacare may exacerbate it, and yes, no one is precisely sure what will happen when the Fed takes its foot off of the quantitative petal. But these issues are independent of my point about the short-term deficits of the Obama Administration.
You've been reading too much Krugman. The only reason we haven't seen any major problems with debt at this point is solely because of the bond markets have kept rates very low. When bonds start falling rates will rise and either taxes will have to go up to compensate or the government will have to cut spending somewhere. Right now, just a 1% rise for the US in rates would add another $100 billion in interest payments.
Guys like Bill Gross, who manages the worlds largest bond fund, have stated the super-bull bond cycle is over and to take note. If we go into a bear market with bonds, it could mean implosion for Italy, Spain, Japan, etc and will put a definite strain on the US.
-
If we go into a bear market with bonds, it could mean implosion for Italy, Spain, Japan, etc and will put a definite strain on the US.
^
please tell us more
-
If we go into a bear market with bonds, it could mean implosion for Italy, Spain, Japan, etc and will put a definite strain on the US.
^
please tell us more
Italy's debt to gdp = 127% http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
When interest rates hit 7% they almost buckled, they can't take another increase, even 2% could cause them to default. Germany isn't going to go another round in that rodeo and the ECB would have to cover major losses causing a chain reaction with the other countries who are teetering.
The US is still a way out from having that happen, but the so called "lets not worry about short term debt accumulation" ideologue avoids the reality that interest rates will go up, the only question is what measure will be taken to counter it and how harsh they will be.
Low interest rates have also allowed corporations to massive sums of capital that have very little impact (currently) on repayment.
-
You've been reading too much Krugman. The only reason we haven't seen any major problems with debt at this point is solely because of the bond markets have kept rates very low. When bonds start falling rates will rise and either taxes will have to go up to compensate or the government will have to cut spending somewhere. Right now, just a 1% rise for the US in rates would add another $100 billion in interest payments.
Guys like Bill Gross, who manages the worlds largest bond fund, have stated the super-bull bond cycle is over and to take note. If we go into a bear market with bonds, it could mean implosion for Italy, Spain, Japan, etc and will put a definite strain on the US.
1. Krugman recently cited that k_nt Naomi Kline favorably. He is dead to me.
2. No one is saying the debt isn't a problem at all -- all I'm interested in saying is that the current path is preferable to any further austerity in the short term, given the demonstrable effects of significant austerity in Europe and the IMF calling our deficit reduction efforts "overly strong" as is. Deficits matter, but not as much as jobs. Yes, spending will need to be cut somewhere.
3. Also, I think the CBO projection does include rising interest rates as an assumption, since it projects interest payments increasing significantly. But I'm not really sure that that is the case.
4. There still isn't any substantive research indicating our current or soon-to-be debt-to-GDP ratio is actively harmful to the economy; most people seem to simply intuit this conclusion. Maybe they're right, but I'd think the lack of evidence for the conclusion would give some pro-austerity persons pause. It doesn't, of course.
-
Thanks
-
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/whats-up-with-the-debt-ceiling/?hpt=hp_t1
-
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/whats-up-with-the-debt-ceiling/?hpt=hp_t1
tick-tock
-
China has no ball to take over Taiwan, against mighty U.S. military power no any chances at all.
There is no way we commit to a war with China over Taiwan. It would break our economy and the losses to win that war would be outrageous. The US is not ready for that kind of death toll.
Right now what's going to happen is the value of the dollar is going to go down. China can't run their economy without the US buying their crap. They will feel push to a wall to "loan" us money. The US credit rating will take a major hit. After a couple of years of the Federal government subsidizing health care exchanges policies the government will be done. They will blame Republicans and Hillary Clinton will get 8 years as this government goes to complete hell as more and more people rely on government for checks as the government goes into a complete default on it's payments. The government will move toward a more socialist model to survive. Russians will drink vodka and have a good laugh.
-
The end.
-
Here's a graph.
-
Pelosi has jets take her every where total waste of money
-
It's more about the principle. Not paying China would cause an uproar across the world and set a precedent that would send foreign markets into chaos.
Out of the 16.7 trillion dollar debt the US has, China owns roughly about 1.2 trillion of it. That is pretty substantial.
Remember though, being in debt has been part of American history. The only time America was free of debt was back under the presidency of Andrew Jackson. He wiped out our debt, but, sadly two years later, we had a 6 year long economic depression (it was the second longest depression suffered by this country, second to that of the great depression).
"1"
This...kind of. More then just the principle. There isn't really too much China could do, i.e. force. But they wouldn’t need to, U.S.A would fuck itself by doing that. It would de-value the U.S dollar beyond anything they are doing now which is just raising the debt ceiling.
I think it would have a similar effect as just printing more money without actually going into debt. The U.S dollar would be worthless. Look at Germany post war, Japan a few decade ago. This kind of thing has been done plenty of times before, nothing new. When Germany were just printing money after the war it was literally declining in value by the minute, people had to be paid three times per day because by the end of the day it would be worth significantly less then what it was in the morning. At its worst 1 US Dollar bought like 4 billion mark (or what ever the currency was then). Insane.
I think something like this would happen...I cant imagine they would just tell China to go jump though lol.
-
This place is like a madhouse. ;D
Prior to 2007 threads like these would get 50 visits, at most. Nowadays it's 50 pages.
-
Probably should have read all posts before replying..haha my bad.
-
They've been in the works to make their currency the world reserve currency, in addition, if they just announced they wanted their debts paid and were no longer investing in the U.S., the market would crash causing a world wide domino effect. they don't have to lift a finger to fuck us.
China is making no effort to establish their currency as a reserve currency. And, as long as its value is controlled by the government (keeping it artificially low), it will never be adopted as a reserve currency. No country would agree to having assets whose value is controlled by the issuer.
China owns just 13% of our debt, BTW.
-
China's slowdown pushed it to devalue the yuan?
-
China's slowdown pushed it to devalue the yuan?
That's right. They frequently devalue the yuan to stimulate exports. Labor conditions are such that they can push down wages and still have more than enough candidates for a given job.
-
Damn
-
China is making no effort to establish their currency as a reserve currency. And, as long as its value is controlled by the government (keeping it artificially low), it will never be adopted as a reserve currency. No country would agree to having assets whose value is controlled by the issuer.
China owns just 13% of our debt, BTW.
Sauce? I thought it was not even 10%.
-
Sauce? I thought it was not even 10%.
Treasury says that - about $1.2-1.4T. But it is widely believed to be much more:
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/02/chinese-investment-in-the-us-$2-trillion-and-counting
-
Thanks for the info.
-
China is making no effort to establish their currency as a reserve currency. And, as long as its value is controlled by the government (keeping it artificially low), it will never be adopted as a reserve currency. No country would agree to having assets whose value is controlled by the issuer.
China owns just 13% of our debt, BTW.
Wrong, 26% of foreign holdings are by China.
-
Wrong, 26% of foreign holdings are by China.
My 13% figure is the percentage of all US investment assets held by China as a percentage of ALL such assets.
If you are giving a figure that is a percentage not of all outstanding assets, but all assets in foreign hands, that is a different number. Still, 26% does not sound right, so what is your source for that number?
-
(http://fakeposters.com.s3.amazonaws.com/results/2013/10/08/ec2ufr77rr.jpg)
-
As already mentioned, the public debt to GDP ratio is 75% (just under $12 trillion), not a particularly interesting figure -- there just isn't any empirical research indicating that this value has special significance (discredited research indicated that 90% had special significance; see "Rogoff and Reinhart").
Since the public debt to GDP ratio has two inputs, the federal government can continually add more debt to the pile while simultaneously decreasing the ratio. While Washington absolutely needs to address certain fundamental problems (e.g., reforming Medicare, reducing world police-style defense spending), there isn't anything fatal about the current situation even if such work is delayed -- CBO projections indicate it will take another 25+ years for the public debt to GDP ratio to reach 100% if no changes at all are made.
lol, just lol @ all the fear mongering around these issues. Somebody is making a lot of money off of it, but I have a feeling it isn't the people soaking it up.