Picking a Winner
If one format wins, a number of experts predict it will be Blu-ray due to its higher number of manufacturing and content partners.
Forrester Research analyst Ted Schadler said in a research note on October 5, 2006, that Blu-ray will win out because it has more support, with over 100 manufacturers compared to HD DVD's 10. According to Schadler, Dell, Apple and Sony will ship PCs with Blu-ray drives. HD DVD has Toshiba in the PC fold. "This deeper support will translate into a broader assortment of products, more retail shelf space and a bigger marketing budget," he said, adding that the Playstation 3 will also make inroads for Blu-ray.
These groups have huge corporate egos and major financial issues at stake and at least for now, it appears that this dual battle will go on for some time.
--Tim Bajarin, analyst,
Creative StrategiesHowever, content is also important. Schadler predicts that Blu-ray will eventually have more movie titles due to its broader support from the studios. "Content is key. The new formats are (for now) read only. This makes content even more important than in Betamax vs. VHS," says Dreze.
"At least with Betamax you could record sitcoms (off your TV.) Here, all you can do is play pre-recorded content. If there is none (available), there is no benefit from buying the player."
Tim Bajarin, principal analyst for Creative Strategies, agrees that the content selection coupled with the Playstation 3 and manufacturing partners favor Blu-ray. "With the studios backing (Blu-ray) and the potential for millions of Playstations eventually getting into consumers' homes, there is a possibility that it could end up with the larger share of this market," says Bajarin.
Not everyone is in the Blu-ray camp, however. Werbach questions whether either side will win. It's unclear, he says, why consumers will want a physical disc when they will have digital distribution for high-definition movies through either Microsoft's Xbox or cable operators who have invested in video on demand. In addition, Werbach says that as storage densities increase, PCs or digital video recorders could bundle dozens of movies on hard drives with automatic downloads for more titles. "The next-generation DVD players had a window of opportunity if they could have delivered a single standard at reasonable cost, but I suspect they have missed it," says Werbach. "I personally have no plans to plug in yet another box next to the TiVo, cable set top box, VCR, DVD player, CD player and Xbox in my den."
Protracted War
With the exception of Dreze, who predicts that a clear winner will emerge in six months to a year, most experts expect a long battle between HD DVD and Blu-ray. "These groups have huge corporate egos and major financial issues at stake and at least for now, it appears that this dual battle will go on for some time," says Bajarin.
The one wild card is a high-definition DVD player or discs that feature both formats. According to Bajarin, such a player would ease consumer fears and spur some demand. However, Bajarin notes that a multi-format player is "by no means the optimal way to approach this problem. The ideal solution is for the two groups to come together, like they did with the CD formats, and create a single player/recording format or platform that meets the needs of all consumers."
But cooperation between the two parties underestimates the corporate needs of Sony and Microsoft. The goal for each: Relegate the other's format to Betamax-like obscurity. "I suspect it will be a while before either of the two high-definition DVD formats folds up shop, as Betamax did," says Werbach. "Sony will probably be the last to give up, because it will ship millions of Blu-ray drives in the next few years with the Playstation 3. But it will be something of a Pyrrhic victory."
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