Despite whatever you want to say about Bush, the polls don't reflect the reality about how people in the red states feel about Bush because there are still states that are very republican and loyal to the conservative community. The truth is there are more republicans than democrats in the political spectrum and conservatives don't abandon their beliefs just because of a leader like Bush is portrayed as the so called boogyman.
The polls DO reflect how people feel. They are scientifically provable and transcend our personal experiences with people of similar thinking. IE: Beach Bum only hangs out with military people and his students - so he believes EVERYONE supports the war, because the military people do what they're told and his kids just want to impress him. So he'll discount every poll as "that's not what I hear". Likewise, if you spent your days hanging out at ACLU HQ, you would think that EVERYONE is anti-war, when that's not true either.
The issue here is this group of moderate republicans who have been jilted by Bush and are waiting for this crazy right-wing neocon group to settle down until we return to our party.
If Bush gives in and stops the war (or if Dennis Kuscinich has him impeached), the party will unite behind the new guy and will topple Hilary in 2008. however, if warmonger McCain sticks around and wins the nominatino, people aren't going to vote for 4 more years of war.