Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[War-Horse]

Like I said in a previous thread, I baught my house to live in not as an investment. Now, if I baught it to flip, then I would worry. I'm kinda old school and prefer not to take risks or at least limit my risk. Besides, no way in hell property in my area would drop "40%".

    If youre leasers fall thru (Most likely)You'll carry the ball.         In march 10million morgatges adjust higher.   We're just getting started on the housing crisis.      I hope youll be okay tho, everyone who works deserves a home.

[The Coach]

When you live in the ghetto, how can the value get any lower?

Yes, I live in the ghettos of Sunset Beach, I remember one time I had to call the cops on my neighbor because he would start his peice of shit Enzo low rider at 7am on Sunday morning.....and that bitch wife of his would have her limo driver double parked while waiting to take her work.......I tried, but the cops were too scared

[The Coach]

    If youre leasers fall thru (Most likely)You'll carry the ball.         In march 10million morgatges adjust higher.   We're just getting started on the housing crisis.      I hope youll be okay tho, everyone who works deserves a home.

Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.

[Neurotoxin]

Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.

the markets are down (as predicted in Nov.07) but now is not the time to buy. there will be a tremendous buying opportunity down the road...........just not right now.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

gbers......


Productivity Slower in 4th Quarter
 
 
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: March 5, 2008


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Worker productivity slowed sharply in the final three months of last year as the economy lost momentum.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that productivity -- the amount an employee produces for every hour on the job -- increased at an annual rate of just 1.9 percent in the October-to-December quarter. That was down considerably from the third quarter's brisk, 6.3 percent growth rate and was the slowest pace since the first quarter of last year.

As productivity growth slowed, labor costs went up.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

gbers........


Report Shows Big Loss in Private-Sector Jobs
 
 
By REUTERS
Published: March 5, 2008


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers cut 23,000 jobs in February, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday



NT

[boonasty]

neurotoxin how do you think the current concentrated short position in the metals will be resolved in the short run ?


do you own any metals why or why not ? 

[stormshadow]

neurotoxin how do you think the current concentrated short position in the metals will be resolved in the short run ?

do you own any metals why or why not ? 

I like to say that precious metals should be an ongoing part of any investment portfolio.  Before my cashflow dried up I was spending 10-15% of my passive monthly income to purchase gold, so I was buying 2 oz per month.  With the run up in gold I probably would have switched to silver or another metal a couple months ago.  I also believe in owning the actual metal, and keeping it in a safe deposit box at the bank.

Again, this would just be a small part of your overall portfolio. 

I just sold off a chunk of gold yesterday, because I have every cent tied up in an oil deal, I’m waiting on more credit, and my reserves for this month were getting low.

I would not look at gold as an "investment" I would look at it as an ongoing store of wealth, or converting your fake money into real money.

I value gold, whether it is 200 per ounce, or 1,000.  Gold is real money and men have been killing each other for it since the beginning of time, and if you study the history of gold you will see that there is more to holding gold in your portfolio than gambling on its increase in value.

[The Coach]

When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.

[War-Horse]

Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.

Theres a big push by the realtors association to advertise this.  However dont believe it.  Prices will continue to drop drastically.  We're just starting to see the effects of this crash.   So many variables are going to come into play that anyone who buys now will be upside down very soon.     The market has to adjust for the false equity put out there, wages couldnt support it.............

[stormshadow]

When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.

The stock market is for suckers... seriously.  The money is made with IPO's and options.  If you are going into the market to buy and sell, you are making a fraction of the money that you could be.

I'll give you an example.

Right now I have just under 400k invested in a private oil fund.  My money is secured by oil, several times over.  The return is 72% APR.

Compare that to the stock market.  You are buying a piece of paper that you THINK is worth more than what you paid for it...  What collateral do you have when the value of that stock goes down? 

Invest in yourself first, then learn about the real investments.

Private Placements
IPO's
Hedge Funds
Real Estate
Hardmoney Lending
POF Investments

[boonasty]

i would NOT be entering the metals sector at this time. it's overbought and due for a healthy correction.

if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits.

as you know, shorts are entering this sector after the huge run-up.

be careful !

i understand what you are saying but i believe metals will continue to climb. i think theyll repeatedly correct a little fluctuate and climb. and if there is a sharp sell off then look out

I also believe in owning the actual metal,

i agree

I would not look at gold as an "investment" I would look at it as an ongoing store of wealth, or converting your fake money into real money.

I value gold, whether it is 200 per ounce, or 1,000.  Gold is real money and men have been killing each other for it since the beginning of time, and if you study the history of gold you will see that there is more to holding gold in your portfolio than gambling on its increase in value.

i do see metals as investments. silver is up 30% since the start of the year. gold is up 16%. i think metals will go higher.  i just check and gold is up 24.30 right now and silver is up .94!  sure it will fluctuate but gold has already surpassed its all time high of about 850 - its at almost 1000 oz right nopw and silver - currently at about 20 hasn't yet approached it's high of 50. i think it will go much higher.

pluse silver is being used for many things and is becoming more rare than gold - gold is use for few things.  silver is used for things that get used up. 

[Neurotoxin]

When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.

joe, when the time is right, having working capital will pay nice dividends. only once in a lifetime do opportunities like were seeing in certain sectors present themselves.

this is where the "warren buffett's" of the world make their fortunes.

[stormshadow]

i do see metals as investments. silver is up 30% since the start of the year. gold is up 16%. i think metals will go higher.  i just check and gold is up 24.30 right now and silver is up .94!  sure it will fluctuate but gold has already surpassed its all time high of about 850

Gold is not anywhere near its all time high.  When you index it for inflation, gold would have to hit 2,145 (september 2007 dollars).

I guess I should clarify my definition of "investment"

I don't consider "buy and pray" to be investing, it is speculating/gambling.

Investing is the purchase of an asset that is giving you cashflow this principle should be the bread and butter, appreciation and tax breaks generally should not come before cashflow, although there are always exceptions.  I think many learned this in 2001 and also recently with the real estate collapse.

[Neurotoxin]

When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? [/u]

IMHO, most brokers are nothing more than well dressed salesmen who know little about financial markets.

joeloco, you know a lot of people, ask around. the broker you choose should've had his clients out of this market by Nov. or Dec 07, (no excuses) if he or she didn't, i'd continue my search for a qualified adviser. remember, when a broker says "the market cannot be timed" it's an excuse for lack of knowledge.

when the time comes, i'll do my best to tell gbers what looks good to me.  

[stormshadow]

IMHO, most brokers are nothing more than well dressed salesmen who know little about financial markets.

Right on.  Brokers are salesmen.

[The Coach]

Then how does one know the right stock to pick?

[Neurotoxin]

gbers....keep in mind there's a "lag time" between rising crude oil and future gas prices. 4.00 per gallon is not far off nationally. $150.00 per barrel this summer is entirely possible.


NT

Oil jumps above $104 as supply drops, OPEC stands pat
  
 
 
Associated Press 3/5/08
NEW YORK — Oil prices surged nearly $5 to a record above $104 a barrel Wednesday after the government reported a surprise drop in crude oil stockpiles and OPEC held production levels steady
Crude oil for April delivery rose $4.89, or 4.9%, to $104.41 a barrel at the close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil said economic "mismanagement" by the United States is pushing oil prices to record highs. Khelil told reporters that America's problems were a key factor in the cartel's decision to hold off on any action.





 


 

[Neurotoxin]

Then how does one know the right stock to pick?

first off, IMO the average investor should expose himself to the market buying ETF's (exchange traded funds) this allows access to a whole specific market sector w/o the risk of buying just one stock. the other benefit of ETF's are no maintenance/broker fee's like mutual funds.

for example: the ETF for the beaten down financial/banking sector is XLF. XLF is purchased just like a stock but acts more like a mutual fund. buying XLF is the equivilent to buying all the financials/banks. so instead of trying to pick one particular bank....Citi, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs etc  buying XLF gives you exposure to them all.

most brokers are not interested in selling ETF's due to lack of commissions. selling mutual funds are where the commissions are for brokers !

example #2: DIA is the ETF for buying the Dow Industrials. SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500. the nasdaq ETF is QQQQ and so on.......

IMO, this is the best way for the average investor to expose himself to the market w/o the risk of one individual stock.


the key is knowing when and what to enter.



NT



 




      

[Neurotoxin]

the average investor understands little about markets and alternatives to the dollar. most importantly, they need to stay OUT OF HARMS WAY. getting too complicated with average 401k investors is often counterproductive and leads to indecision and doing nothing.

the main message to fellow getbiggers is: when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad. this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) which is considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.

imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered all the way down.(as usual)  conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.

i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.



  

an old post which has stood the test of time.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

something to ponder........


the housing boom helped push the dow up from 10,000 to an all time high of 14,200........since the high, the dow has already retreated 2,000 points with the housing boom now offically a housing/credit bust coupled with record inflation.

the dow dropping back to the 10,000 area in the coming months should not be surprising or unexpected.

right now the stock market is in a slow bleed......to help avoid panic.


NT


  

[The Coach]

first off, IMO the average investor should expose himself to the market buying ETF's (exchange traded funds) this allows access to a whole specific market sector w/o the risk of buying just one stock. the other benefit of ETF's are no maintenance/broker fee's like mutual funds.

for example: the ETF for the beaten down financial/banking sector is XLF. XLF is purchased just like a stock but acts more like a mutual fund. buying XLF is the equivilent to buying all the financials/banks. so instead of trying to pick one particular bank....Citi, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs etc  buying XLF gives you exposure to them all.

most brokers are not interested in selling ETF's due to lack of commissions. selling mutual funds are where the commissions are for brokers !

example #2: DIA is the ETF for buying the Dow Industrials. SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500. the nasdaq ETF is QQQQ and so on.......

IMO, this is the best way for the average investor to expose himself to the market w/o the risk of one individual stock.


the key is knowing when and what to enter.


let me know if this makes any sense.




 




     

I'm going to save this to my computer.......great info, thanks.

[Neurotoxin]

gbers.......


March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell to a six-week low, led by financial shares, after U.S. home foreclosures climbed to a record and concern grew that rising credit costs will drag the economy into a recession.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

March 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks dropped Thursday, with investors confronted by further bleak news from the financial sector, including word of a default at mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc.

"It seems like there is no end to issues within the financial sector; it is the inability to stem the flow of negative news in terms of re-evaluating capital... we're that much closer to zero now," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

Homeowner Equity Is Lowest Since 1945


AP
2008-03-06
NEW YORK (AP) - Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

That marks the first time homeowners' debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945.

NT