Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 467615 times)

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #850 on: April 24, 2008, 08:42:19 AM »
New-home sales sink 8.5% to 17-year low
Despite huge price declines, inventory on market rises to 27-year high



April 24, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders have slashed their prices by a record amount, but sales still plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The report gives little hope that the housing market is near a bottom. February's sales pace was revised lower to 575,000 from 590,000.



NT

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #851 on: April 24, 2008, 10:12:26 PM »
New-home sales sink 8.5% to 17-year low
Despite huge price declines, inventory on market rises to 27-year high



April 24, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders have slashed their prices by a record amount, but sales still plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The report gives little hope that the housing market is near a bottom. February's sales pace was revised lower to 575,000 from 590,000.



NT



Right on.   We're going to see much greater price corrections to the downsides, than what we've seen so far.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #852 on: April 25, 2008, 10:58:24 AM »
Consumer sentiment index at a 26-year low

 
 
 

4/25/08 NEW YORK (Reuters) — Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in April, hitting its weakest level in 26 years, on heightened worries over inflation and the sagging housing market, a survey showed Friday.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence for April fell deeper into recession territory, to 62.6 from 69.5 in March and below economists' median expectation of 63.2 in a Reuters poll.

The April result is the lowest since March 1982's 62.0, when the "stagflation" period of low growth and high inflation was an issue for Americans.

"More consumers reported that their personal financial situation had worsened than any time since 1982 due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and widespread reports of declines in home values," the survey said.

"Never before in the long history of the surveys have so many consumers reported hearing news of unfavorable economic development as in the April survey."



NT

 

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #853 on: April 25, 2008, 11:17:31 AM »
guys.......notice the disconnect between what's happening in the real economic world and the stock market ?

without historic Plunger Team manipulation, this market would be toast.

BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly)  ;)



NT 

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #854 on: April 25, 2008, 11:40:12 AM »
guys.......notice the disconnect between what's happening in the real economic world and the stock market ?

without historic Plunger Team manipulation, this market would be toast.

BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly)  ;)

NT 

Would that explain the decline in gold prices?

I was watching Smart Money on CNBC last night and they were jerking each other off about the one day decline in oil and supposed strengthening of the dollar vs the Euro and how this is news that the economy is recovering.


stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #855 on: April 25, 2008, 11:49:44 AM »
BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold the gold they stole in 1933 for 20.67 per ounce then revaluing it to 35 per ounce in essence STEALING 69% of private wealth from American Citizens to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly)  ;)
NT 


Fixed

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #856 on: April 28, 2008, 07:15:29 AM »
Wall Street Grain Hoarding Brings Farmers, Consumers Near Ruin



April 28 (Bloomberg) -- As farmers confront mounting costs and riots erupt from Haiti to Egypt over food, Garry Niemeyer is paying the price for Wall Street's speculation in grain markets.

Commodity-index funds control a record 4.51 billion bushels of corn, wheat and soybeans through Chicago Board of Trade futures, equal to half the amount held in U.S. silos on March 1. The holdings jumped 29 percent in the past year as investors bought grain contracts seeking better returns than stocks or bonds.



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stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #857 on: April 28, 2008, 08:01:54 AM »
Vacant homes hit new record high in first quarter
Monday April 28, 10:23 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer 
Percentage of US vacant homes hits new record high in first quarter as housing pain persists


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Census Bureau says the percentage of vacant homes in the U.S. has hit a record high in the first quarter of this year.
The report, released Monday, shows that 2.9 percent of U.S. homes -- excluding rental properties -- were vacant, compared with 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The West had the biggest gain in vacancy rates among homeowner, rising to 7 percent in the January-March period from 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Vacancy rates fell in the Midwest and South, but rose in the Northeast.



Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #858 on: April 28, 2008, 12:52:29 PM »
gbers, below is a great article pertaining to the PPT. i consider this piece to be highly accurate and worth reading.





The Plunge Protection Team 



 
The Washington Independent
25 April 2008

    Some people foolishly think that Washington's recent high-profile effort to steer, subsidize and protect the American financial sector is the beginning of something new - a revolutionary development.

    It isn't. Consider that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - nicknamed "the Plunge Protection Team" by The Washington Post in 1997 quietly observed its 20th birthday on Mar. 18.

    "Quietly," in fact, is an understatement. "Semi-secretly" would be more like it. The Working Group, or PPT, is much-pondered but reclusive group that has declined to submit to the federal Freedom of Information Act or to testify in detail before Congress about its activities. This is true even though its current chief, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke is another prominent member - made no secret of revving up its operations after he took took over at Treasury in 2006.

    The curious reader will wonder: Just what does the PPT do?

   Right now, Congress ought to able to pursue this basic question: Is the PPT a kind of committee for the extra-legal coordination, manipulation and subsidization of financial institutions and markets? Has it been stepping in when free-market forces have become too perilous to profits and asset values - in financial crisis years like 1998, 2001 and 2007. Has Washington decided to protect the financial sector more than any other element of the U.S. economy?

    Over the last decade or so, the Treasury Dept. and the Fed have both developed something of a scofflaw attitude toward strict interpretation of federal statutes and regulations. For example, both winked in the late 1990s, as federal regulators allowed Citibank to merge with Travelers Insurance, despite contrary law still on the books. Both winked in more recent years, as major banks set up huge multi-billion-dollar structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, to do on an off-the-books basis what they were not allowed under banking law. Now we have the federally funded J.P Morgan Chase takeover of Bear Stearns. The PPT may well have had a quiet role in some of these actions.

    For the bigger picture, look back to the stock market crash of 1987 - the sickening Oct. 19 fall when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average lost 508 points or 23.6 percent of its value in a single trading day. Alan Greenspan had just taken over as the Federal Reserve Bank chairman, and some believe that the Fed intervened to support the market the next day - by either buying Standard & Poors futures or telling several collaborative broker-dealers to do so.

    Tim Metz, in "Black Monday," contends that "some leaders and market makers at the New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange collaborated to save the stock market by rigging stock information and prices." Tony Dye, a British fund manager, made a similar charge of intervention by U.S. authorities. London Sunday Telegraph, Mar. 22, 1998).]] Edward Chancellor, in his 1999 book, "Devil Take the Hindmost," noted that if these interventions occurred, they raised a major issue of "moral hazard."

    The likelihood they did occur is increased by the fact that a year after the PPT group's launch, a retiring Fed board member, Robert Heller, wrote a much-discussed article in The Wall Street Journal that in the case of an another emergency like 1987, there might be a better alternative than the Fed's usual remedy - interest rate reduction. "Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, " Heller wrote, "the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole." No public mention was ever made of the Fed or the Working Group embracing the Heller scheme, but that may have happened privately.

    Such accusations are a long way from being conclusive. But they do help explain the milieu in which the Working Group, or PPT, was set up by presidential proclamation - Congress had no role - in March 1988. The proclamation authorized the Working Group to "enhance the integrity, efficiency, orderliness and competitiveness of financial markets" - language that may have been intended to provide a broad and loose authorization for intervention in the 1987 mode, should it be required again.

    Media discussion of the Working Group, negligible in 1988, rekindled after the tribulations over the Asian and Russian debt and currency crises of 1997 and 1998. Washington's ambitions to manipulate seem to have been on the upswing. In a January 1997 speech in Belgium, Greenspan indicated that the Fed could pursue "direct intervention in market events" - a bold new legal interpretation.

    A month later, The Washington Post ran a big article, revealing details never repeated by any other major publication. The article describes how the Working Group had set up a financial "war room;" assembled a global as well as national list of key emergency contacts, and carried out simulated emergency drills.

    In the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, media attention to possible government market intervention and manipulation refocused again - though less in the United States than in foreign English-speaking media. The London Observer reported, later that September, the Working Group-cum-PTT was "ready to coordinate intervention by the Federal Reserve on an unprecedented scale. The Fed, supported by the banks, will buy equities from mutual funds and other institutional sellers if there is evidence of panic selling in the wake of last week's carnage."

    The group was cited again a half-year later. The authoritative Financial Times quoted a Fed official, who declined to be identified, but acknowledged that policy-makers had considered "buying U.S. equities" - not just futures. The Fed, said the official, could "theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system," including "state and local debt, real estate and gold mines, any asset." That sounds much like the same broad conception of empowerment Greenspan had injudiciously taken note of in 1997.

    Two months later, the Australian Financial Review weighed in, wondering whether a 234-point intra-day surge on the New York Stock Exchange could be attributed to the PPT: "There is a belief that this team represents a powerful and secretive hand that is ready to act any time the Dow looks ready to tank big time."

    After 2001-02, there was little mention of the PPT group for several years. But come 2006, when Paulson decided to renew the Working Group as a major player, the British financial pages, if not the American, renewed their interest. The London Telegraph described the PPT as a "shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency and credit futures in a crash." It added that the former Clinton aide, George Stephanopoulos, had earlier described the group as having "an informal agreement among the major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."

    Not all U.S. financial journalists have been baaing sheep, ready to ignore the issue. John Crudele of The New York Post has pursued it in several columns, and others have acknowledged hearing about the buy orders from friends in the S&P trading pits. Another columnist, James Pethokoukis of U.S. News & World Report, described at length how in the final two trading hours on Aug, 16, 2007, the Plunge Protection Team might have encouraged one or two major institutions to buy stock index futures, because a 300-point Dow decline was briskly wiped away. But then he felt obliged to close with a semi-disavowal: "there's never been any official confirmation of this," and that insiders both in Washington and Wall Street "totally dismiss" these reports.

    With the recent market panics and surges, the Working Group - if not its deepest secrets - might have again appeared on the front pages. But this did not happen.

    However, in March 2008, the Senate Finance Committee's top Democrat, Max Baucus (D-Mont.), and top Republican, Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), were consumed by interest in whether Paulson pressured Bernanke into having the Federal Reserve broker the controversial deal in which J. P. Morgan Chase got $30 billion to help take over Bear Stearns.

    Baucus and Grassley asked for all kinds of details. However, they seem not to have asked for information on how closely Paulson and Bernanke had been collaborating since 2006 in their mutual roles on the Plunge Protection Team. and how they interpreted their powers under the 1988 presidential proclamation. This is unfortunate.

    Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, a well-respected senior statesman, stated his concern bluntly. "To meet the challenge," Volcker said, "the Federal Reserve judged it necessary to take actions that extend to the very edge of its lawful and implied powers, transcending certain long-embedded central banking principles and practices."

    Volcker is regarded as one of the last honest men in U.S. finance. But since 1987, the lawful and implied powers of the Federal Reserve have probably been extended further than the former Fed chairman would like - and, conceivably, further than he knows.

 



Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #859 on: April 28, 2008, 01:36:58 PM »
 
Warren  Buffett: "I Think We're In A Recession"

April 28, 2008
On CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning Warren Buffett told Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Carl Quintanilla and Steve Liesman that he thought the country was in a recession, even if economists weren't quite ready to label it as such:



BUFFETT: "YEAH, I THINK WE'RE IN A RECESSION. IT IS DEFINED IN A CERTAIN WAY BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. BUT I THINK IT'S DEFINED BY THE MAN IN THE STREET DIFFERENTLY THAN WHETHER THERE HAVE BEEN TWO QUARTERS OF REPORTED GDP GROWTH. INCIDENTALLY, WHEN GROWTH IS BELOW 1% A YEAR, IT'S REALLY FALLING ON A PER CAPITA BASIS BECAUSE OUR POPULATION INCREASES ABOUT 1%. EVEN THOUGH THE NATIONAL BUREAU USES AN ABSOLUTE FIGURE, IF IT'S UP .1, THEY DON'T COUNT THAT AS A RECESSIONARY QUARTER. BUT THE PER CAPITA HAS GONE DOWN IN A QUARTER WHEN THE GAIN IS A HALF A PERCENT OR SOMETHING OF THE SORT. WE ARE IN A RECESSION UNLESS YOU WANT TO STICK STRICTLY TO THE TECHNICAL DEFINITION WHICH I DON'T THINK HAS MUCH MEANING TO THE FELLOW WHO'S LOST HIS JOB OR WHO'S FACING A MONEY MARKET FUND THAT ISN'T PAYING HIM OUT OR WHATEVER IT MAY BE."




Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #860 on: April 28, 2008, 10:06:22 PM »
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is widely expected to trim interest rates to 2% from 2.25% this week to lift the troubled US economy.

Policy makers will begin their two-day meeting later amid signs that economic growth has stagnated, or even shrunk.

It is thought that this could be the last cut for a while, after bold action from the Fed and White House has led to hopes that the worst could be over.

Rising inflation risks could also lead to a rate cut pause, analysts say.

"We expect this to be the last cut, but the Fed will be flexible in responding to economic conditions," said Peter Berezin, global economist at Goldman Sachs.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #861 on: April 29, 2008, 07:30:04 AM »
guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.


i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.


NT

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #862 on: April 29, 2008, 09:50:50 AM »
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is widely expected to trim interest rates to 2% from 2.25% this week to lift the troubled US economy.

Policy makers will begin their two-day meeting later amid signs that economic growth has stagnated, or even shrunk.

It is thought that this could be the last cut for a while, after bold action from the Fed and White House has led to hopes that the worst could be over.

Rising inflation risks could also lead to a rate cut pause, analysts say.

"We expect this to be the last cut, but the Fed will be flexible in responding to economic conditions," said Peter Berezin, global economist at Goldman Sachs.




Its so damn funny that people believe this.    By lowering rates they will feed the coming dollar crash and depression.        They can lower rates to zero%  and by tightening credit standards they are nullifying it.   The housing bubble was meant to be a last hurrah for gullible americans, they took all the money they could and ruined their credit.................i t was all planned.  Especially these empty attempts to appear noble by the administration by trying to lower rates.......and gauranteeing that no one gets qualified to use them.

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #863 on: April 29, 2008, 10:36:44 AM »
Not only are existing subprime borrowers hung out to dry, but with the new wave of foreclosures, you have a whole new crop of people that are now subprime.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #864 on: April 29, 2008, 03:12:19 PM »


Its so damn funny that people believe this.    By lowering rates they will feed the coming dollar crash and depression.        They can lower rates to zero%  and by tightening credit standards they are nullifying it.   The housing bubble was meant to be a last hurrah for gullible americans, they took all the money they could and ruined their credit.................i t was all planned.  Especially these empty attempts to appear noble by the administration by trying to lower rates.......and gauranteeing that no one gets qualified to use them.

you're exactly right WH. lowering rates continues to devalue our greenback and fan the inflation fire, resulting in higher prices for gas, food and all services. furthermore, lowering rates during a credit crunch combined with raging inflation borders on the absurd.  ???

it's more pandering by our Fed to appease W.S.



NT

 

Hugo Chavez

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #865 on: April 29, 2008, 11:01:12 PM »
Neuro, I want to get your opinion.  Please, thank you...  I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia.  So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%.  I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month.  Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before?  Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time.  I feel like trying now!  But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake.  Any advice?

youandme

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #866 on: April 30, 2008, 04:58:43 AM »
Neuro, I want to get your opinion.  Please, thank you...  I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia.  So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%.  I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month.  Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before?  Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time.  I feel like trying now!  But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake.  Any advice?

Good question.
Dan Zanger paper traded for a year, until he switched up to real trades.
No rush, it's not a race. If you feel like trying now, then you can go for it, try a stop loss order, and don't play on margin yet.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #867 on: April 30, 2008, 07:02:00 AM »
Neuro, I want to get your opinion.  Please, thank you...  I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia.  So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%.  I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month.  Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before?  Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time.  I feel like trying now!  But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake.  Any advice?


HC, paper trading excludes normal human emotion/fear, thus making it easier to see trading profits. with that in mind, you may want to consider trading very small shares to start and build your confidence........with emotion.

although i somewhat agree with YAM's post, i still believe trading without emotion is far too easy considering you have nothing to lose.

IMO, a "normal market environment" (an up-trending market void of raging inflation and recession fears) is much easier for a beginner to learn and gain much needed confidence. so, if you decide to use real money in this current market, be careful and start w/ very small share amounts and use stop loses to protect yourself. ( this is probably the most challenging market environment i've seen in 20 yrs, so utmost caution should be utilized. )


hope this helps.




NT






Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #868 on: April 30, 2008, 12:36:18 PM »
guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.


i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.


NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #869 on: April 30, 2008, 02:52:31 PM »



i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.





4/30/08 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) 
 
After the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to an intraday high of 13,010.0 .
 
But the stock market's enthusiasm quickly waned, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day losing 11.81 points to end at 12,820.13, with 16 of its 30 components losing ground.   



NT
 

Hugo Chavez

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #870 on: April 30, 2008, 06:50:19 PM »

HC, paper trading excludes normal human emotion/fear, thus making it easier to see trading profits. with that in mind, you may want to consider trading very small shares to start and build your confidence........with emotion.

although i somewhat agree with YAM's post, i still believe trading without emotion is far too easy considering you have nothing to lose.

IMO, a "normal market environment" (an up-trending market void of raging inflation and recession fears) is much easier for a beginner to learn and gain much needed confidence. so, if you decide to use real money in this current market, be careful and start w/ very small share amounts and use stop loses to protect yourself. ( this is probably the most challenging market environment i've seen in 20 yrs, so utmost caution should be utilized. )


hope this helps.




NT






yes, thank you, those are things I did not even think about.

youandme

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #871 on: May 01, 2008, 05:22:52 AM »
oh crap never mind, Zanger was paper trading for 5 + years.



oh also he blew up three previous trading accounts even after those 5 years of keeping in contact with the market. 

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #872 on: May 01, 2008, 08:56:03 AM »
Layoffs jump to 19-month high in April


May 1, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Led by cost-conscious financial companies, major U.S. corporations announced 90,015 job reductions in April, up 68% from March and the most since September 2006, according to a monthly tally released Thursday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.
Announced layoffs through the first four months of the year have grown to 290,671, up 9% from a year ago


NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #873 on: May 01, 2008, 09:02:22 AM »
Foreclosures spike 112% - no end in sight


   
April 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings in the first three months of 2008 rose more than 112% over last year, according to a study released Tuesday.
Real estate information firm RealtyTrac reported that nearly 650,000 foreclosure filings -which include notices of default, auction sales and bank repossessions - were issued in the first quarter and marks a 23% increase from the last quarter of 2007.



NT


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #874 on: May 05, 2008, 08:16:50 AM »
guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.


i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.


NT


my opinion is unchanged.


NT