Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[Bindare_Dundat]

U.S. Stocks Slide on Concern Recession Is Deepening; GM Tumbles


Nov. 19  U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid below their lowest closes since 2003 on growing concern over the fate of the nation's car industry and economic data signaling the recession is deepening.

General Motors Corp. tumbled as much as 18 percent to its lowest price since 1942, while Ford Motor Co. lost 24 percent. Citigroup Inc. slid 17 percent to $6.90, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of assets from structured investment vehicles it advises. Government reports showing the biggest decrease in consumer prices and the fewest housing starts on record sent JPMorgan Chase & Co., Cisco Systems Inc. and General Electric Co. to declines of more than 5 percent.

The S&P 500 slipped 4.1 percent to 806.00, extending its 2008 retreat to 45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -427.03 points, to 7,997.00 The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 4.3 percent to 1,419.17. Seventeen stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Dow 5000 here we come. 

[Bindare_Dundat]

GOVERNMENTS CAN'T HANDLE GLOBAL RUN ON GOLD COINS

There's a worldwide run on gold coins.

Even as the price of the precious metal itself comes under pressure along with commodities like oil and copper, people around the world are demanding so many of the valuable coins that government mints are having difficulty filling orders.

A spokesperson for the US Mint tells me that gold coins in this country, for the past month, "are being allocated because of an increased demand."

In one sense, the attraction for gold coins isn't surprising. Since ancient times, gold has been considered the safest investment to hold in times of uncertainty.

With fears of future inflation rising and concern about the value of paper currency and government-debt increasing with each new recovery plan announced in Washington and in foreign capitals, the desire to hold gold grows.



How could there be such a dichotomy between the historic high premium for coins all over the world and the low Comex price?

[Neurotoxin]

Buffett obviously has not followed this thread. 


NT



Nov. 20  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.

The stock has plunged 41 percent this year, compared with the 45 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.

[Bindare_Dundat]

CREDIT CARDS WILL BE THE NEXT BIG FINANCIAL BLOWUP

WASHINGTON is so nervous that credit cards will become the next financial sinkhole that the government will soon ask banks to go through the arduous task of running tests on hundreds of millions of their cardholders.

On Oct. 7, the Office of the Controller of the Currency put together a test called Definitions of Data Fields Collected Monthly at the Account Level, which asks banks nationwide to put the 700 million or so credit cards in existence to a test of 74 questions.

I mentioned a few months back that the government was getting worried about credit-card defaults and that it was trying to put together a way to measure the problem by September, an unachievable deadline that came and went without any results.

Now, finally the government is ready to move and will probably seek out someone to make sense of the data once the banks put their credit cards to the test.

Question 11 on the test is, "Student Credit Card Flag - indicate whether a credit card is internally identified as a student credit card."
Question 27 is "report dollar and number of all applicants that applied for credit with a FICO score below the bank's normal cutoff FICO score."

Quick, close the barn door, the cows have already left.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11202008/business/credit_cards_will_be_the_next_big_financ_139703.htm

[Benny B]

Buffett obviously has not followed this thread. 


NT



Nov. 20  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.

The stock has plunged 41 percent this year, compared with the 45 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.

I think the world's greatest investor is going to be ok. 

GOVERNMENTS CAN'T HANDLE GLOBAL RUN ON GOLD COINS

There's a worldwide run on gold coins.

Even as the price of the precious metal itself comes under pressure along with commodities like oil and copper, people around the world are demanding so many of the valuable coins that government mints are having difficulty filling orders.

A spokesperson for the US Mint tells me that gold coins in this country, for the past month, "are being allocated because of an increased demand."

In one sense, the attraction for gold coins isn't surprising. Since ancient times, gold has been considered the safest investment to hold in times of uncertainty.

With fears of future inflation rising and concern about the value of paper currency and government-debt increasing with each new recovery plan announced in Washington and in foreign capitals, the desire to hold gold grows.



How could there be such a dichotomy between the historic high premium for coins all over the world and the low Comex price?

Gold has turn out to be a shit hedge in this current environment.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Gold has turn out to be a shit hedge in this current environment.

It all depends on what you thnk will happen in the coming months.

[Neurotoxin]

as additional economic data comes in, continue to focus on institutional support. (7,800-7,900)

if we breach support in this environment... things could get very ugly.


NT

finally breached support and things got ugly. Dow down - 444.00 points to close at 7,552.00 Dow 7,200-7,300 is next important institutional support level.

Dow Nov. 2007 =14,200
Dow Nov. 2008 = 7,552 and counting


to those who listened....congrats, great job. 

Citation 5/Vegas/partying/this weekend 


NT



U.S. Stocks Retreat, Sending S&P to Lowest Level Since 1997



Nov. 20  U.S. stocks slid and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index plunged to its lowest level in 11 years after economic reports depicted a deepening recession and lawmakers postponed a vote on a plan to salvage the auto industry.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index extended its 2008 tumble to 49 percent, poised for the worst annual decline in its 80-year history. Chesapeake Energy Corp. and National-Oilwell Varco Inc. slid more than 21 percent as crude sank to a three-year low as the economic slump crushes demand. JPMorgan Chase & Co. tumbled 18 percent and Citigroup Inc. plunged 26 percent as concern the recession will trigger more bankruptcies pushed the cost of insurance against corporate defaults to an all-time high.

``It's an ugly mess out there,'' said Randy Bateman, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer of the asset management unit of Huntington Bancshares Inc. in Columbus, Ohio. ``The economy is confirming it is very, very weak.''

The S&P 500 slid 6.7 percent to 752.58, under the low of 776.76 reached during the bear market in 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank -443.8 points, or 5.6 percent, to 7,553.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 5 percent to 1,317.05. Twelve stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

[Neurotoxin]

Unemployment claims hit sixteen-year high

November 20, 2008
New claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week to a 16-year high, the Labor Department said Thursday, providing more evidence of a rapidly weakening job market expected to get even worse next year," AP reported early Thursday.

[BayGBM]

Neurotoxin:  Today Citigroup closed at $4.71!    Their market cap is now 25.6 billion. What do you think is going to happen to Citi?

[Bindare_Dundat]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors has a market capitalization of less than $2 billion. The stock, which now trades for a little under $3 a share, hit a 70-year low of $1.70 on Thursday morning before recovering a bit.

Normally, when a blue-chip company sinks to such depths of despair, it gets tossed from the S&P 500. But not only is GM (GM, Fortune 500) still a member of that index, it remains a component of the granddaddy of market barometers: the venerable Dow Jones Industrial average.

Why? Or in the words of mid-'90s self-help guru Susan Powter, "Stop the insanity!" The editors of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Indexes, who decide who's in and who's out of the Dow, soon have to come to grips with reality and remove GM from the DJIA.

[Bindare_Dundat]

C aint going nowhere, but it seems neurotoxin is flying in his "citation v" to "las vegas"...

Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock remains below that level, it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower.

"That's the danger of crossing that $5 threshold," says Owen Malcolm, senior vice president of Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "They're (Citigroup) already in trouble. It could get worse."

[Bindare_Dundat]

The ameros Hal shows turn up to not be official.  This guy Daniel Carr made them:
The http://www.dc-coin.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWCATS&Category=8

I believe they are working toward a north american union.

STOP MOCKING NEURO. This is your last warning. 

[Bindare_Dundat]

Gold made a nice gain today, so far.

[The Luke]

NT,


I'd be very interested in your take on economists Peter Schiff and Max Keiser's vehemently professed opinions that the Dollar is essentially a zombie... all but dead.

Both Schiff and Keiser believe economic COLLAPSE (not a recession; not a depression; not stagflation) is inevitable.


Could soup kitchens and Hoovervilles be making a comeback? Could the USA be a second/third world country by the end of an Obama administration, no matter what Barrack does right or wrong?


The Luke

[Bindare_Dundat]

NT,


I'd be very interested in your take on economists Peter Schiff and Max Keiser's vehemently professed opinions that the Dollar is essentially a zombie... all but dead.

Both Schiff and Keiser believe economic COLLAPSE (not a recession; not a depression; not stagflation) is inevitable.


Could soup kitchens and Hoovervilles be making a comeback? Could the USA be a second/third world country by the end of an Obama administration, no matter what Barrack does right or wrong?


The Luke

I think the arguement against people like Peter is that the money isnt in the system yet and is just sitting in banks so the chance of inflation or hyperinflation isnt a real problem... yet. Anyone else's comments on this is appreciated.

[Alex23]

patience, patience...

GM is up 33% today @4.74... if you listened to me, you're up 170% if you bought when I said to...

I called on GM last Tuesday when the stock hit 2.77, stating that Wednesday will be a good time to start buying. They will not let GM fail. Closed at 3.18 today.

Patience grasshopper.

[Alex23]

Other stocks on my watch list:
BOOM, XETA (which I already bought @1.80), PRKR, INPH, CSCO. 

BOOM 15.34 +1.32 (9.42%)
XETA 1.91 +0.01 (0.53%) bought @ 1.80
PRKR 3.39 +0.21 (6.60%) bought @ 2.34
INPH 2.25 +0.10 (4.65%) bought @ 2.31.. still under water
CSCO 16.28 +0.86 (5.58%) bought @ 15.05, in for the long run

[Nordic Superman]

BOOM 15.34 +1.32 (9.42%)
XETA 1.91 +0.01 (0.53%) bought @ 1.80
PRKR 3.39 +0.21 (6.60%) bought @ 2.34
INPH 2.25 +0.10 (4.65%) bought @ 2.31.. still under water
CSCO 16.28 +0.86 (5.58%) bought @ 15.05, in for the long run

Cisco really was a good buy, I'll vouch for that. At those prices, the volume you can purchase is large too, great potential.

[The Luke]

Just a quick note for anyone who has recently had their eyes opened to the mechanics of this recent collapse.

You may be interested in the punditry of self-styled "financial anarchist" Max Keiser: www.maxkeiser.com


Much like this thread Keiser's website collects all the economic news that usually slips through the cracks; he succinctly cut through all the crap and subterfuge with regard to the shenanigans involved in the bank nationalizations here in Ireland.

His prediction record thus far is even than Peter Schiff, Nuriel Roubini or Jim Rogers.


But best of all he posts a weekly radio show "The Truth About Markets" which is far more insightful than Peter Schiff's efforts, and has a new BBC World tv show "The Oracle".

Be sure to check out his Al Jazeera appearances too... Keiser screaming for a fatwa against Bernanke and Paulson on live tv while the presenter squirms in the foreground is absolutely hilarious.



The Luke

[Neurotoxin]

not much has changed the last couple months....hovering around 8,000 high volitility. experienced traders only. IMO long term investors should not enter this market until we reach the accumulation stage again. the banking sector must also reverse course for any sustainable rally to occur. anticipating a test of the Nov 21st low would be prudent.

many short cover rallies occur in bear markets, do not get sucked in! current technical analysis still favors being on the sideline for long term investors.

brighter days ahead ! 


NT


U.S. Stocks Fall on Profit, Recession Concern; Microsoft Drops


Jan. 22  U.S. stocks slid, erasing about half of yesterday’s rally, as companies from Microsoft Corp. to Fifth Third Bancorp reported disappointing earnings and economic data signaled the recession is deepening.

Microsoft tumbled 10 percent after saying it’s no longer able to give forecasts for the rest of its fiscal year as the economic slump crimps demand for software. Fifth Third, Ohio’s second-largest bank, dropped 31 percent to a 22-year low after posting a third consecutive quarterly loss. Banks led declines in all 10 industry groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after initial claims for unemployment benefits matched a 26-year high and housing starts fell to a record low.

The S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent to 822.85 at 3:31 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 159.78 points, or 1.9 percent, to 8,068.32. The Russell 2000 Index decreased 2.8 percent.


 

[Neurotoxin]

its important the S+P holds 800.00....if we breach, 740.00 is my downside target.

current trading range 800 - 920


NT

[Neurotoxin]

guys, by now you know the stock market crashed, just as i predicted. now the bigger question remains....where is a safe entry point / the bottom ?

because the market is a discounting mechanism, it discounts the past and anticipates the future. as an experienced technical analyst, my analysis must always be anticipatory rather than reactionary. anyone who has followed this thread understands i anticipated the crash long before bad news emerged. (using a number of indicators) conversely, the market will find a bottom long before good economic news emerges. (news tends to follow behind the direction of the market.)

as long as the thread remains positive and void of drama, i'll continue my updates and provide my opinion as to a safe long term entry point.



NT




 

[Slapper]

Good to see ya again Neuro.

What do you think about the Citi or BofA or UBS? Dirt cheap if you're looking at 25+ years of buyin'-n-holdin'.

Cheers mate.

[TerminalPower]

GM is up 33% today @4.74... if you listened to me, you're up 170% if you bought when I said to...

Thanks man I really appreciate all you have done for this thread.

Your straight forward and honest approach is refreshing, as is your unique and accurate insight, uncanny actually. 

I am up 150% because of you. 

[Butterbean]

Bushisms are not allowed?

  OK