Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 467794 times)

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2175 on: August 17, 2009, 02:42:20 PM »

guys, without a significant correction/pullback since the March rally began, (on low volume) i'd be very careful on the Long side.



NT


Stocks tumble on consumer fears

August 17, 2009
NEW YORK  -- Wall Street slumped Monday, falling for the second straight session, as worries that nervous consumers will pressure a fragile recovery dragged stocks lower after a five-month advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or 2%, after having lost as much as 204 points earlier. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 24 points, or 2.4%.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at 3-week lows.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 55 points, or 2.8%, ending at a one-month low.


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2176 on: September 01, 2009, 01:53:11 PM »
guys, without a significant correction/pullback since the March rally began, (on low volume) i'd be very careful on the Long side.



NT



Stocks plunge on worries that the market gains have raced ahead of any economic recovery. Dow down 185 points; S&P 500, Nasdaq sink 2%.


NEW YORK  Markets tumbled Tuesday, as investors took a big step back at the start of what is typically a rough month, betting that stocks have risen too far too fast without any underlying support.

"I think we've had a nice run and it's time for a bit of a pullback," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus. "I wouldn't be surprised if we moved back to the 880 level (on the S&P 500) before moving back up."

A drop to the 880 level would constitute a slide of about 12% from the current levels.

Investors nitpicked through the morning's better-than-expected reports on housing and manufacturing but found little reason to jump back into the fray.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or almost 2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 22 points, or 2.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 40 points, or 2%.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2177 on: September 02, 2009, 02:52:45 AM »
guys, S&P closed yesterday below the psychological level of 1000... on HEAVY volume. the run up since March has been accompanied by LOW volume/support, making a market correction highly probable.


NT

 

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2178 on: September 02, 2009, 08:18:37 AM »
guys, i'd like to see the S&P correct to 880-900 area before pressing higher heading into the Holidays.

980 should act as our next temporary support level.



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2179 on: October 06, 2009, 01:30:39 AM »

as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.

furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.

why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.


just my opinion.



NT



guys, continue to follow GS as they dictate markets direction.

fundamentals are meaningless....for now.




NT   

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2180 on: October 06, 2009, 02:41:02 AM »
UNG seems poised IMO.



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2181 on: October 13, 2009, 03:56:58 AM »
i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.

as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.

guys, always keep a close eye on GS.  ;)



NT


Hedgehog

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2182 on: October 13, 2009, 05:46:39 AM »
i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.

as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.

guys, always keep a close eye on GS.  ;)



NT



In your opinion, what kind of action should the legislative and executive branch have taken last year?

Ideally?
As empty as paradise

GigantorX

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2183 on: October 13, 2009, 06:05:35 AM »
i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.

as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.

guys, always keep a close eye on GS.  ;)



NT



The Goldman Sach's prop desk is quite busy these days...

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2184 on: November 02, 2009, 04:58:52 AM »
How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash.



WASHINGTON — In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.

Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.

Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.

Now, pension funds, insurance companies, labor unions and foreign financial institutions that bought those dicey mortgage securities are facing large losses, and a five-month McClatchy investigation has found that Goldman's failure to disclose that it made secret, exotic bets on an imminent housing crash may have violated securities laws.

"The Securities and Exchange Commission should be very interested in any financial company that secretly decides a financial product is a loser and then goes out and actively markets that product or very similar products to unsuspecting customers without disclosing its true opinion," said Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who's proposed a massive overhaul of the nation's banks. "This is fraud and should be prosecuted."

John Coffee, a Columbia University law professor who served on an advisory committee to the New York Stock Exchange, said that investment banks have wide latitude to manage their assets, and so the legality of Goldman's maneuvers depends on what its executives knew at the time.

"It would look much more damaging," Coffee said, "if it appeared that the firm was dumping these investments because it saw them as toxic waste and virtually worthless."

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman's chairman and chief executive, declined to be interviewed for this article.

A Goldman spokesman, Michael DuVally, said that the firm decided in December 2006 to reduce its mortgage risks and did so by selling off subprime-related securities and making myriad insurance-like bets, called credit-default swaps, to "hedge" against a housing downturn.

DuVally told McClatchy that Goldman "had no obligation to disclose how it was managing its risk, nor would investors have expected us to do so ... other market participants had access to the same information we did."

For the past year, Goldman has been on the defensive over its Washington connections and the billions in federal bailout funds it received. Scant attention has been paid, however, to how it became the only major Wall Street player to extricate itself from the subprime securities market before the housing bubble burst.

Goldman remains, along with Morgan Stanley, one of two venerable Wall Street investment banks still standing. Their grievously wounded peers Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch fell into the arms of retail banks, while another, Lehman Brothers, folded.

To piece together Goldman's role in the subprime meltdown, McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings, copies of secret investment circulars, lawsuits and interviewed numerous people familiar with the firm's activities.  8)


Goldman Sachs:


Bought and converted into high-yield bonds tens of thousands of mortgages from subprime lenders that became the subjects of FBI investigations into whether they'd misled borrowers or exaggerated applicants' incomes to justify making hefty loans.


Used offshore tax havens to shuffle its mortgage-backed securities to institutions worldwide, including European and Asian banks, often in secret deals run through the Cayman Islands, a British territory in the Caribbean that companies use to bypass U.S. disclosure requirements.


Has dispatched lawyers across the country to repossess homes from bankrupt or financially struggling individuals, many of whom lacked sufficient credit or income but got subprime mortgages anyway because Wall Street made it easy for them to qualify.


Was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.



The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman.

These decisions preserved billions of dollars in value for Goldman's executives and shareholders. For example, Blankfein held 1.6 million shares in the company in September 2008, and he could have lost more than $150 million if his firm had gone bankrupt.

With the help of more than $23 billion in direct and indirect federal aid, Goldman appears to have emerged intact from the economic implosion, limiting its subprime losses to $1.5 billion. By repaying $10 billion in direct federal bailout money — a 23 percent taxpayer return that exceeded federal officials' demand — the firm has escaped tough federal limits on 2009 bonuses to executives of firms that received bailout money.

Goldman announced record earnings in July, and the firm is on course to surpass $50 billion in revenue in 2009 and to pay its employees more than $20 billion in year-end bonuses.





NT





Soul Crusher

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2185 on: November 02, 2009, 05:00:55 AM »
How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash.



WASHINGTON — In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.

Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.

Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.

Now, pension funds, insurance companies, labor unions and foreign financial institutions that bought those dicey mortgage securities are facing large losses, and a five-month McClatchy investigation has found that Goldman's failure to disclose that it made secret, exotic bets on an imminent housing crash may have violated securities laws.

"The Securities and Exchange Commission should be very interested in any financial company that secretly decides a financial product is a loser and then goes out and actively markets that product or very similar products to unsuspecting customers without disclosing its true opinion," said Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who's proposed a massive overhaul of the nation's banks. "This is fraud and should be prosecuted."

John Coffee, a Columbia University law professor who served on an advisory committee to the New York Stock Exchange, said that investment banks have wide latitude to manage their assets, and so the legality of Goldman's maneuvers depends on what its executives knew at the time.

"It would look much more damaging," Coffee said, "if it appeared that the firm was dumping these investments because it saw them as toxic waste and virtually worthless."

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman's chairman and chief executive, declined to be interviewed for this article.

A Goldman spokesman, Michael DuVally, said that the firm decided in December 2006 to reduce its mortgage risks and did so by selling off subprime-related securities and making myriad insurance-like bets, called credit-default swaps, to "hedge" against a housing downturn.

DuVally told McClatchy that Goldman "had no obligation to disclose how it was managing its risk, nor would investors have expected us to do so ... other market participants had access to the same information we did."

For the past year, Goldman has been on the defensive over its Washington connections and the billions in federal bailout funds it received. Scant attention has been paid, however, to how it became the only major Wall Street player to extricate itself from the subprime securities market before the housing bubble burst.

Goldman remains, along with Morgan Stanley, one of two venerable Wall Street investment banks still standing. Their grievously wounded peers Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch fell into the arms of retail banks, while another, Lehman Brothers, folded.

To piece together Goldman's role in the subprime meltdown, McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings, copies of secret investment circulars, lawsuits and interviewed numerous people familiar with the firm's activities.  8)


Goldman Sachs:


Bought and converted into high-yield bonds tens of thousands of mortgages from subprime lenders that became the subjects of FBI investigations into whether they'd misled borrowers or exaggerated applicants' incomes to justify making hefty loans.


Used offshore tax havens to shuffle its mortgage-backed securities to institutions worldwide, including European and Asian banks, often in secret deals run through the Cayman Islands, a British territory in the Caribbean that companies use to bypass U.S. disclosure requirements.


Has dispatched lawyers across the country to repossess homes from bankrupt or financially struggling individuals, many of whom lacked sufficient credit or income but got subprime mortgages anyway because Wall Street made it easy for them to qualify.


Was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.



The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman.

These decisions preserved billions of dollars in value for Goldman's executives and shareholders. For example, Blankfein held 1.6 million shares in the company in September 2008, and he could have lost more than $150 million if his firm had gone bankrupt.

With the help of more than $23 billion in direct and indirect federal aid, Goldman appears to have emerged intact from the economic implosion, limiting its subprime losses to $1.5 billion. By repaying $10 billion in direct federal bailout money — a 23 percent taxpayer return that exceeded federal officials' demand — the firm has escaped tough federal limits on 2009 bonuses to executives of firms that received bailout money.

Goldman announced record earnings in July, and the firm is on course to surpass $50 billion in revenue in 2009 and to pay its employees more than $20 billion in year-end bonuses.





NT






I saw this a few days ago.  GS is organized crime.  There are no two ways about it. 

GigantorX

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2186 on: November 02, 2009, 05:08:43 AM »
I saw this a few days ago.  GS is organized crime.  There are no two ways about it. 

They are a force of fucking nature, no two ways about it. Hanky Panky Paulsen and Terrible Timmy Geightner are all from that death star. They have profited the most from this economic annihilation. No material risk, their HFT computers and trading software is worth billions and they more than undue influence in D.C.

Simply amazing.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2187 on: November 02, 2009, 05:08:51 AM »
guys continue to focus on the Banks/Financials. as i've mentioned before, this is the ONLY sector moving the Market. (up or down) GS being the Kingpin.


just my opinion.




NT




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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2188 on: November 02, 2009, 05:10:42 AM »
They are a force of fucking nature, no two ways about it. Hanky Panky Paulsen and Terrible Timmy Geightner are all from that death star. They have profited the most from this economic annihilation. No material risk, their HFT computers and trading software is worth billions and they more than undue influence in D.C.

Simply amazing.

However, if you look at where we are heading, its going ot get worse.

I have posted relentlessly about this Cap & Trade scam and GS's involvement in this.  The more I read about, the worse it gets. 

This is why we need to end too big to fail asap and let these criminal gangs fail.     

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2189 on: November 02, 2009, 05:20:49 AM »
i anticipate a double dip recession.


a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.




NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2190 on: November 02, 2009, 05:25:34 AM »
i anticipate a double dip recession.


a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.




NT


Neuro - i speak with business people every day and not one has any sense of a recovery or things turning around.   most are pretrified of the govt and the mandates coming down the pike and will not hire anyone.  In fact, most are still laying people off and trying to switch everyone to 1099's and temp agencies. 

Additionally, the local taxes are still increasing at a fast rate. 

This ship is sinking fast and no amount of fed printing is going to fix this. 

The cure in my opinion, is something this govt refuses to even consider.  Let the mess run its course and focus on re-industriailizing.  Lets these criminal banksters beg in the streets and open up Manufactirung Zones where we can focus on getting people to work in productive jobs making stuff. 

Until then, its all nonsense.   

GigantorX

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2191 on: November 02, 2009, 06:51:18 AM »
i anticipate a double dip recession.


a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.




NT


You actually have to recover to go on the dip again. This is a pure fantasy recovery, plain and simple. No job growth, shrinking wages, cut hours, low confidence, low spending and shrinking consumer credit. The "fantasy recovery" is riding on the backs of Admin./Media complex propaganda, a destroyed dollar, and an inflation charged DOW. Add to the fact that Goldmans price target for oil is 100$ and all the hedges will use it to drive the price up to protect against inflation and all of the pension funds will use it to meet their replacement qoutas and you have a constant and deep recession.

The admin. could have been responsible and made "changes" and showed some leadership, but they fell for the same old scam.

We are gonna come the same old way and we are going to lose the same old way.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2192 on: November 03, 2009, 04:43:55 AM »


guys, market is extremely weak. please be very careful.




NT

Come on Neuro.  I heard it was all green shoots and recovery.  No? 

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2193 on: November 03, 2009, 12:06:57 PM »


with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a short cover/bear market rally in the very near future.

 


for any of you who caught the March Low... taking some profits might be a reasonable idea.






NT





Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2194 on: November 04, 2009, 08:43:25 AM »
banking sector remains weak.

please use caution.



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2195 on: November 04, 2009, 09:01:18 AM »
in addition to keeping a close eye on GS/Banks, observe UUP (dollar) as it is trading inverse to market.

dollar down, market up.  


if Fed takes action to strengthen the dollar, market will tank.


talk about a conundrum.





NT




The Luke

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2196 on: November 04, 2009, 02:26:24 PM »
Gold at eleven hundred dollars an ounce... told you so.


The Luke

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2197 on: November 05, 2009, 01:47:53 AM »


banking sector remains weak.


please use caution.



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2198 on: November 09, 2009, 05:27:24 AM »
guys, insider buying picked up last week with a total of $118M in buying. selling continues to trump buying, with insiders selling $739M in stock.




NT

Hugo Chavez

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2199 on: November 09, 2009, 05:46:41 AM »
so is the shit about to hit again or are we talking about a dip with those numbers?