Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 467874 times)

GigantorX

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6371
  • GetBig's A-Team is the Light of Truth!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2225 on: December 07, 2009, 03:10:37 PM »
Dollar strengthens. gold takes a beating, commodities take a beating. the stock market takes a beating. interest rate "tightening" rears its head. etc etc

That was the case until Berhnake openend his mouth on some expertly timed comments that seemed to completely alter the course of the market as it was...his comments seemed well rehearesed like they were meant to just what they did.

Strange, very strange.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 40063
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2226 on: December 07, 2009, 07:09:31 PM »
Dollar strengthens. gold takes a beating, commodities take a beating. the stock market takes a beating. interest rate "tightening" rears its head. etc etc

That was the case until Berhnake openend his mouth on some expertly timed comments that seemed to completely alter the course of the market as it was...his comments seemed well rehearesed like they were meant to just what they did.

Strange, very strange.

I just read on bloomberg that japan is doing a new stim bill cuz their recovery is faltering.  Bernake also made crytpic remarks signaling the same thing. 

pedro01

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4800
  • Hello Hunior
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2227 on: December 08, 2009, 04:43:02 PM »
For Natural Gas, I'd avoid UNG & GAZ ETFs as the CTFC is looking to close them down as they represent such a large percentage of the natural gas futures markets.

Also -we have been in Contango with Natural Gas futures contracts and as UNG buys the near team contracts, the rollovers cost them dearly.

FCG is an ETF that invests in natural gas companies which in my opinion is a better play.

Long term though - there is serious oversupply with natural gas inventories building and more gas rigs coming on line to take advantage of the recent price rises. At some point there is the very real chance that the producers are told to stop producing as storage is nearing capacity.

Saying that - the last time GAS Prices dipped below $4.50 ($4.382 to be precise) at the start of Septembe, they took a run up to a little over $6 and there was money to be made in UNG, GAZ & FCG.

This time, I'm not getting in because the supply situation is so much worse despite the increased winter use.

BTW - Great thread. I've learnt a few things here !

dario73

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6467
  • Getbig!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2228 on: December 09, 2009, 07:07:20 AM »
The great Bush 'deregulation' myth
by Jeff Jacoby

WE'VE HEARD IT again and again: The financial crisis was caused by the Bush administration's reckless plunge into deregulation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, for example, blames the mess on "the Bush administration's eight long years of failed deregulation policies." Billionaire investor George Soros declares that "excessive deregulation is at the root of the current crisis." Nouriel Roubini, the widely-quoted New York University economist, pins it on "these Bush hypocrites, who spewed for years the glory of unfettered Wild West laissez-faire jungle capitalism." A New York Times editorial pronounces the American financial system "the victim of decades of Republican deregulatory and anti-tax policies."

President Jimmy Carter attributes it to the "atrocious economic policies of the Bush administration," particularly "deregulation and . . . a withdrawal of supervision of Wall Street."

That's also Barack Obama's view. "The biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system," Obama said last month. He called the present troubles "a final verdict on the failed economic policies of the last eight years . . . that essentially said that we should strip away regulations, consumer protections, let the market run wild, and prosperity would rain down on all of us."

Deregulators run amok undoubtedly make a flamboyant culprit. But do they exist? Should we really be taking seriously the claim that the past eight years have been characterized by letting "the market run wild"?

Granted, there has been significant recent legislation easing financial restrictions. Most often mentioned is the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which, as The New York Times described it on Monday, "removed barriers between commercial and investment banks that had been instituted to reduce the risk of economic catastrophes." Some argue that the law, which allowed traditional banks and investment firms to be affiliated under one holding company, helped bring on the credit meltdown. Even if true, how was that George W. Bush's fault? The law was signed by President Bill Clinton in 1999, after being passed by lopsided majorities in both houses of Congress.


President Bill Clinton after signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999. The law partially deregulated the securities industry. (Photo: Justin Lane/The New York Times)
 
Gramm-Leach-Bliley's lead sponsors were Republicans, but the 34 Democratic senators who voted for the bill surely weren't scheming to "let the market run wild." Ditto the 151 Democrats -- among them future Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- who voted for the measure in the House. Then-Treasury Secretary (and current Obama adviser) Larry Summers didn't denounce the bill as "laissez-faire jungle capitalism" -- he praised it for "promoting financial innovation, lower capital costs, and greater international competitiveness." Clinton himself defends the law to this day.

Now, this is not to say that Bush hasn't also been responsible for legislation having a decided impact on the country's regulatory climate. On July 31, 2002, declaring that free markets must not be "a financial free-for-all guided only by greed," he signed the Sarbanes-Oxley law, a sweeping overhaul of corporate fraud, securities, and accounting laws. Among its many tough provisions, the law created a new regulatory agency to oversee public accounting firms and auditors, and imposed an array of new requirements for financial reporting and corporate audits. Whatever else might be said about Sarbanes-Oxley, it was no invitation to an uninhibited capitalist bacchanal.

Like the alligators lurking in New York City sewers, Bush's massive regulatory rollback is mostly urban legend. Far from throwing out the rulebook, the administration has expanded it: Since Bush became president, the Federal Register -- the government's annual compendium of proposed and finalized regulations -- has run to more than 74,000 pages every year but one. During the Clinton years, by contrast, the Federal Register reached that length just once.

Similarly, the administration has broken every previous record for regulatory agency spending. According to researchers at Washington University and George Mason University, appropriations for federal regulatory functions have soared during the Bush years. Adjusting for inflation, the regulatory budget has grown from $25 billion in fiscal year 2000 to an estimated $43 billion in FY 2009 -- a 70 percent increase. "In constant dollars," writes James Freeman in the Wall Street Journal, "the Bush regulatory budget increases vastly exceed those of predecessors Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, and, yes, Lyndon Johnson." Staffing has skyrocketed, too. Regulatory agencies employed 175,000 people in 2000. They employ nearly 264,000 today. (Some of that reflects the Transportation Security Administration's takeover of airport security screening in 2003.)

Amid the stress and storm of the financial crisis, "deregulation" makes a convenient villain. But the facts tell a different story: The nation's regulatory burden has grown heavier, not lighter, since Bush entered the White House. Too little government wasn't what made the economy sick. Too much government isn't going to make it better.


dario73

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6467
  • Getbig!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2229 on: December 09, 2009, 07:20:30 AM »
As another poster in another site stated:

The "Clintonesque Boom" of the 90s had more to do with productivity gains spurred by private investments in emerging technologies in the 80s, fostered by Reagan-era tax incentives?...that the deregulation of the banking industry (aka, repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act) that created this mess occurred under Clinton?...that the expansion of home ownership into lower economic stratas and foregoing traditional lending requirements originated with the Community Reinvestment Act signed and championed by Jimmy Carter?

pedro01

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4800
  • Hello Hunior
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2230 on: December 09, 2009, 07:53:37 AM »
guys, momentum continues to the downside. right now the highest probability is the S&P testing the 50dma in the coming days. a breakout above 1120 seems highly unlikely at this point.

Well - whichever way it breaks, making money will be a lot easier (for me anyway) when it does.

Hugo Chavez

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 31865
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2231 on: December 09, 2009, 08:14:08 AM »
please no politics in this thread.

thanks in advance.



NT
I was going to split them and start a new thread, but considering the thread is started with political accusations, I think he has a right to respond to them here.  He was positive in his posts so it's all good imo.

loco

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19189
  • loco like a fox
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2232 on: December 09, 2009, 12:11:18 PM »
please no politics in this thread.

thanks in advance.



NT

bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.

our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.

in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.

cash is king !

I agree with Hugo!

War-Horse

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6490
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2233 on: December 09, 2009, 03:33:21 PM »
Almost 47,000 veiws.   :o

Tito24

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 20638
  • I'm a large man but.. one with a plan
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2234 on: December 09, 2009, 08:57:15 PM »
NT what do you think about currencies??

you think the US dollar carry trade is officially dead?


Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 40063
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2235 on: December 10, 2009, 08:09:13 AM »
Dec. 10, 2009  

Natural gas surges after EIA inventories

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Natural gas futures surged nearly 7% Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a decline in U.S. inventories that was more than expected. Natural gas stockpiles fell for the first time in nine months, down 64 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 5.




NT


Just in time for winter when we have to purchase fuel to heat homes.  How freaking convenient. 

pedro01

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4800
  • Hello Hunior
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2236 on: December 10, 2009, 06:12:51 PM »
Just in time for winter when we have to purchase fuel to heat homes.  How freaking convenient. 

Yes - that pesky supply and demand, eh ?  ::)

Are you suggesting that there should not be futures markets for commodities or perhaps that they should exist but shouldn't be based on supply and demand ?

Also - are you aware of how futures prices effect you personally ? Are you allowed to chose your own provider of natural gas ? Do you choose one that locks in low prices ahead of time by buying futures ?

Don't go seeing conspiracies everywhere - there isn't one here IMO.

Tito24

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 20638
  • I'm a large man but.. one with a plan
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2237 on: December 10, 2009, 08:10:44 PM »
Yes - that pesky supply and demand, eh ?  ::)

Are you suggesting that there should not be futures markets for commodities or perhaps that they should exist but shouldn't be based on supply and demand ?

Also - are you aware of how futures prices effect you personally ? Are you allowed to chose your own provider of natural gas ? Do you choose one that locks in low prices ahead of time by buying futures ?

Don't go seeing conspiracies everywhere - there isn't one here IMO.

I understand stock index futures pretty well, e-mini's etc.

Tito24

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 20638
  • I'm a large man but.. one with a plan
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2238 on: December 10, 2009, 08:17:02 PM »
friday's jobs number was a farce. WS's reaction?  selloff the intraday rally that followed such a spurious number.

continue to follow UUP for market direction.



NT

be careful what you recommend...

that UUP = symbol for PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

Don't worry i got your back Holmes.


I believe that ETF uses currency futures to achieve it's objective. I haven't read the prospectus..However, it pretty objective the fund is to be long the dollars.

chadstallion

  • Getbig IV
  • ****
  • Posts: 2854
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2239 on: December 15, 2009, 11:23:12 AM »
thankfully it hasnt crashed yet.  just had a meeting with the financial planner; for 9 months of this year have earned a 42% return on investments (stocks).
w

loco

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19189
  • loco like a fox
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2240 on: December 15, 2009, 12:35:01 PM »
thankfully it hasnt crashed yet.  just had a meeting with the financial planner; for 9 months of this year have earned a 42% return on investments (stocks).

Exactly!

Not to say anything negative about Neurotoxin and his posts.  Most people here seem to welcome him and his posts, but the title of this thread and Neurotoxin's original advice seems at this point inaccurate.

The Dow never did crash and neither did 401k.  Anyone who believes there was a crash doesn't know what a crash really is.

move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.

preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.

Most middle and upper class Americans I know who aggressively invested their 401k and other portfolios in stocks did not touch their investments during this crisis.  Some of them even bought more stocks while they were low.  Though they saw their balance get very low at the beginning, now they see it slowly recovering and close to where it was before the crisis.  Warren Buffet converted almost his entire portfolio to stocks during this crisis.

Those who pulled their money out of stocks and moved it into CDs, Cash, Money Markets, etc., will have missed a great investment opportunity here.  But those who did not panic and left their money in stocks or even put more money into stocks will see great gains as the economy recovers.

I'm not saying that the Dow won't crash in the future or that people will not lose their 401k.  Nobody knows.  But the title of this thread, the predictions and the original advice all posted in 2007 seems inaccurate at this point.  It just did not come to pass.  And I feel sorry for anyone who panicked and pulled their money out of stocks.

dario73

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6467
  • Getbig!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2241 on: December 15, 2009, 12:53:06 PM »
please no politics in this thread.

thanks in advance.



NT

You were wrong in blaming ONLY Bush, fool.


chadstallion

  • Getbig IV
  • ****
  • Posts: 2854
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2242 on: December 31, 2009, 07:14:45 AM »
end of year:  42% gain from last year in my stock portfolio.  let's hear it for REITs
w

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12405
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2243 on: January 07, 2010, 09:12:58 PM »
end of year:  42% gain from last year in my stock portfolio.  let's hear it for REITs
lol
Indeed, REITs were good to me too in '09.  :)
!

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12405
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2244 on: January 07, 2010, 09:15:51 PM »
i anticipate a double dip recession.


a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.




NT

You still comfortable with this assessment, Neuro?
!

Eyeball Chambers

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 14344
  • Would you hold still? You're making me fuck up...
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2245 on: January 29, 2010, 05:45:58 AM »
market continues to exhibit weakness on advancing volume. momentum to the downside.

S&P 1085 -1120 remains intact, but should be treated with suspicion. next downside support @ 1070

testing psychological Dow 10,000 seems highly probable

exercise caution



-NT

Welcome back!
S

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 40063
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2246 on: February 04, 2010, 10:33:14 AM »
opinion unchanged



-NT

Just great! 

Ammo, Guns, Dehydrated foods, etc. 

Buckle Up boys!

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 40063
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2247 on: February 04, 2010, 01:41:08 PM »
Stocks slammed; investors rethink global recovery

(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday took their worst single-day hit in eight months, with investor sentiment battered by European debt and worries about the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 268.37 points, or 2.6%, to 10,002.18, its worst daily loss since April 20, 2009. The Dow had lapsed under 10,000 just ahead of the close, its first lapse under that level since early November. The S&P 500 Index fell 34.17 points, or 3.1%, to 1,063.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index  declined 65.48 points, or 3%, to 2,125.43.



There is no recovery!  This has been nothing more than a sham by the government telling lies to the public 24/7! 

AE

  • Getbig III
  • ***
  • Posts: 509
  • Retribution is Certain
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2248 on: February 04, 2010, 02:01:57 PM »
The government is being forced tommorow to admit that we lost nearly 1 Million more jobs in 2009 than they initially reported. 

You call that a recovery? 

My stocks have increased in value by over 100K from their low although they still have a ways to go to get back to their high.  I call that a definite recovery in process.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 40063
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2249 on: February 04, 2010, 02:06:46 PM »
My stocks have increased in value by over 100K from their low although they still have a ways to go to get back to their high.  I call that a definite recovery in process.

The stock market is the not the economy.  You need to look at UE, tax receipts, local govt tax receipts, exports, and other barometers as well. 

The stock market itself has been supported by the Fed Reserve, not strength on underlying fundamentals or increasing baseline earnings of companies.

The only profits from these companies have come from cutting costs, not increased revenues.