and he keeps beating hilary, and he keeps schooling McCain in polls of a head-to-head matchup.
I'm guessing the ppl who keep saying that, are the ones who aren't ready. The majority of the country, according to everything we're seeing - is ready.
The polls the media touts are useless, because they look at overall popular vote, and include a lot of people who probably won't vote anyway. You have to look at it state-by-state, because that's all that matters in a presidential election. 80% of the states are too far one way or the other (Dem or GOP) for there to be any chance of the other candidate winning, so it comes down to the swing states. As with the last election, the most imporatant ones (nost number of votes) are FLorida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Depending on what happens in those states, smaller swing states like Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa could come into play.
Here's my take:
McCain wins Florida easily. There's no sizable black population, lots of military, lots of old folks, lots of right-leaning moderates.
Obama takes Ohio. Large black population, terrible economy that has just gotten worse the past 8 years, razor-thin margin in '04, and the republicans there tend to be of the religious sort that won't be enthused about coming out for Mccain.
PA is a tossup, with McCain having a great shot of taking it. McCain in PA's kind of republican... fiscally conservative, socially liberal, war hawk, with an independant streak. Remember, this is the state that elected Tom Ridge governor twice.
I think this is how it will go down: Obama takes Ohio, McCain takes FLorida and PA, McCain wins.
However, Obama could win PA and McCain still win overall, IF McCain takes all the smaller swing states. IMO, he wins Nevada (it's next to his home state, he's not a religious nut, and Nevada is big on defense), he wins New Mexico (also next to his home state, and there are no blacks there, but lots of hispanics who aren't enthused about Obama), he wins New Hampshire (they like independants, and he's always done well there), and it could come down to Iowa.