but assuming McCain wins this November - which is a virtual lock, at this point
I don't see how you believe that.
how many out-of-work factory workers without health insurance are going to walk into a polling booth this fall and say "I think the republicans will help me find a job and get coverage"?
Zero.
If there are more out-of-work people now, than the margin of victory in 2004, Obama wins.
This isn't even counting the war - signals change elections historically.
This isn't even counting the age issue - Mccain has senile moments and they will come more often now.
This isn't even counting the recession - people vote dem when they're poor, historically.
This is just the unemployment vote - enough to sway things.
Besides, Hil picks the VP - say a wes clark or more likely Evan Bui - and all her backers go Obama.