I'm Going to answer this with bullet points :
Didn't mean to type gay, I meant to type guy. Sorry about that, you know I have a lot of respect for you, and think you are a total class act.
Rivera has not had a ton of innings in the post season recently
I know you follow stats, but sometimes you come at me with the "on paper" and (IMO) that means nothing. I know some of the analysis you post is third party, I can tell by how in depth it is, and how targeted it is in saying ( insert Boston player) is not as good as people say he is. Thats fine.
That cool, I would take Pap over Rivera..... Much rather have Pap closing a huge game, and he has proven he can do it.
Maybe Pap won't have the longevity, maybe he wont compare to Mo in the end, but none of that matters to me, I'm a Boston fan, Pap is a GREAT closer, and IMO he is better than MO at this stage.
So if the sox or the yanks dont win the big one this year, who will?
Oh, I knew you were joking, I just thought it was hilarious.
I agree with you on the "on paper" thing - the end goal is to win the WS, so, if a team does that, it renders all negative numbers for that season useless for that year. The can be used, however, to try to point out future trouble spots.
Rivera's just having a better year right now, in almost every measurable sense. He's not blowing any saves, in fact, he's 23 for 23 right now.
Here's my non statisical observation of Papelbon's recent minor struggles: His put away location is off. Papelbon's M-O seems to be to try to get ahead of hitters, then finish them with a fastball at the shoulders or the split in the dirt. I've been seeing him leave the split high and the fastball low, and it's been getting hit. It was very evident in the ABs of Cano and Gardner in the last Yankee game. He had them both set up the way he wanted but didn't make the signature strikeout pitch.
If the Yanks/Sox don't win who will? Well, to be fair, it's hard for even me to take the Yankees as WS contenders right now, but I'll have a better idea over the next 10 games. That said, I'll say..........LA due to the pitching. Milwaukee is a beast in a short series with CC/Sheets too. I'm also intrigued by Arizona with Webb/Haren, but their offesnse is weak. If the playoffs started today, the favorites would probably be Boston.