It seems the general population is ignoring the fact that their tax money is being spent a record levels, the national debt will be nearly doubled by the end of his term and the economy has not improved. Without the stimulus, many predicted we'd be out of the recession by the fall... so if it takes till fall/winter to get out of the recession, I don't think you can say, with certainty, that the stimulus played a major role. I don't think these things will hit people until they see the tax hikes that are likely to come next year.
I am curious to see whats going to happen with health care...thats going to be a bear.
Right now, I'd say Obama would be re-elected...most people like the guy but if the economy isn't significantly better next year and/or taxes start to go up, he will loose a lot of independents and non-party affiliated people.