It all depends who the repubs run.
A competent, mature and dignified candidate could win 55% of the popular vote in a blowout.
A mess of a candidate who gets disshelved in the debates... suddenly people see Obama as experienced and prepared, and the other person as an unknown. it just takes one stupid answer, and suddenly you have a perceived middle schooler onstage talking to a college grad about how education works. A palin, pawlenty, or Romney lecturing obama on foreign policy or defense would be asinine - he is Bush military policy with 4 years at the top of the food chain - hearing Palin humor us with "i'm WAY more prepared than Barrack to face our enemies" would be foolish.
GOP needs to run an experienced and CONFIDENT person in 2012. No lib screaming (rudy), no hand notes and one-liners (palin), no idiots (you know who the dumbs ones are).
Run two very boring, very professional candidates, and win. It's that simple.