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TuHolmes
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« Reply #300 on: June 17, 2016, 01:52:25 PM »

I saw this quickly and I agree with a lot of it.

http://www.ontheissues.org/2012/Gary_Johnson_War_+_Peace.htm
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« Reply #301 on: June 18, 2016, 02:08:40 AM »

He was governor of New Mexico, so he has been vetted somewhat.  I don't think people care about reformed pot heads. 


Somewhat perhaps. I'm unsure that Governors are vetted all that much. While I could give a flying fuck whether someone smokes dope or not, a lot of conservative folks do.
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« Reply #302 on: June 20, 2016, 02:13:51 PM »


Somewhat perhaps. I'm unsure that Governors are vetted all that much. While I could give a flying fuck whether someone smokes dope or not, a lot of conservative folks do.

You think so?  Sounds like a stereotype.  I don't hear people talking about it very much.  In fact, I think we are very close to having it legalized nationwide. 
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« Reply #303 on: June 20, 2016, 02:15:37 PM »

Poll numbers dropping.  Campaign in disarray.  Whispers of convention problems.  Members of Congress openly withholding support.  Good job GOP.   Roll Eyes

Donald Trump Parts Ways With Controversial Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski
Lewandowski was known for his brash tactics and insistence that letting “Trump be Trump” would win the White House.
06/20/2016 10:19
Senior Political Correspondent, The Huffington Post

Falling in the polls and watching Republican delegates mount a campaign to oust him, Donald Trump has cut ties with his controversial campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.

Trump announced the change on Monday in a statement from spokeswoman Hope Hicks, which was first reported by The New York Times.

Lewandowski had been with Trump since January 2015, when most political observers believed the reality TV star was never going to actually run for president, and guided him to securing the nomination in May 2016 when his final opponents dropped out.

The New Hampshire native had no experience on national campaigns, and had jealously protected his access to and influence with Trump, arguing that letting “Trump be Trump” was the strategy that would win the White House just as it won the nomination.

But Lewandowski faced increasing pressure from both inside the campaign and from Republican Party leaders to broaden his approach and conduct a more traditional campaign to go up against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

For weeks, Lewandowski had been competing with longtime GOP lobbyist and consultant Paul Manafort, who was originally brought in to manage the campaign’s delegate tracking operation for the nominating convention in Cleveland.

Even as Manafort went to Republican National Committee members and Republican members of the House and Senate to assure them that Trump would adopt a more “presidential” tone and strategy after he secured the nomination, Lewandowski worked to keep things as they had been.

And because Trump keeps neither a computer on his desk nor a cell phone in his pocket, Lewandowski and Hicks had been able to maintain roles as Trump’s gatekeepers, deciding who got access to the self-proclaimed multi-billionaire, according to sources close to the campaign.

Lewandowski also regularly traveled with Trump, accompanying him to nearly all of his rallies and meetings outside of New York City. This helped give him a level of influence with Trump that exceeded anybody else’s inside or outside the campaign, save for Trump’s children.

It’s unclear who will take Lewandowski’s place. Manafort’s allies cheered Monday’s announcement, but the Trump campaign has not yet said what the new organizational chart will look like.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-corey-lewandowski_us_5767f5bbe4b0853f8bf15aba
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« Reply #304 on: June 20, 2016, 05:58:50 PM »

Campaign in disarray.

Trump is the master of organizational mgmt, with WORLDS more experience at it than anyone else.

To think he cannot run a campaign of a few thousand people - at all?   When he can run multimational companies, making deals all over the world, building massive skyscrapers and golf courses, all at once...

But when his sole focus is on the campaign, he cannot hire people to fill key roles?  I just do not believe he became this inept overnight.  I think it's on purpose.
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« Reply #305 on: June 20, 2016, 07:53:01 PM »

Sales to earning for S&P companies are 2 to 1, eclipsing both the "great recession" and the dot com bubble. Companies are routinely using non-gaap to estimate earnings, and until recently were participating in significant debt to equity purchases. There is considerable economic volatility in Europe, as Britain may exit the European Union. The federal reserve cannot raise interest rates, lest it causes a financial catastrophe in the bond market. American companies are laying people off left and right, especially as workers are increasingly being replaced with technology. The military is converting into a leaner force, less dependent on human capital, and real estate has eclipsed the highs of 2006 in Denver. Who knows what's in store for the economy as it gets closer to elections?

What could possibly go wrong?
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« Reply #306 on: June 22, 2016, 12:12:50 PM »

Clinton closing in on running mate search
By Jeff Zeleny and Dan Merica, CNN
Tue June 21, 2016

Columbus, Ohio (CNN) — Hillary Clinton is narrowing her choices for a running mate, intently focusing on a handful of potential candidates as her team closes in on the final weeks of vetting before she makes a decision in less than a month, several Democrats watching the process tell CNN.

With her long Democratic primary fight now over, Clinton has privately signaled she is less concerned about choosing someone who fills a specific liberal or progressive void, rather than selecting a partner who is fully prepared for the job and has a strong camaraderie with her.

The list of serious vice presidential candidates is believed to be smaller rather than larger, with Democrats close to the campaign placing it at no more than five contenders. But several aides acknowledged they were not sure, considering the secrecy imposed on the process by Clinton.

Clinton has not yet conducted formal interviews, but has devoted hours studying the records and backgrounds of several Democrats on a list that includes Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro of Texas.

But those three should not be seen as absolute finalists, several Democrats said, only as active contenders. The roster also may include Labor Secretary Tom Perez, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Rep. Xavier Beccera of California.

Asked about his prospects, Kaine smiled and winked Tuesday as he stepped into an elevator in the Capitol.

It does not include Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, her primary rival who has yet to endorse her candidacy but has pledged to help defeat Donald Trump. He was not expecting to be considered, aides said, and her aides say he is not.

John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign and a trusted confidante, is leading the effort, according to Democrats who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak about the highly-secretive process. Cheryl Mills, Clinton's longtime adviser and lawyer, is also helping Clinton with the decision.

Both were seen leaving Clinton's home in Washington on June 10, hours after the former secretary of state met with Warren. The topic of the meeting was not the vice presidency, aides said, but it was an opportunity for the two whose relationship has not always been warm to have a face-to-face conversation about the direction of the party.

As Clinton has repeatedly said in interviews, her top consideration is someone who would be able to step into the presidency should anything happen to her. And, by extension, someone who Republicans could not credibly cast as ill-prepared.

"I want to be sure that whoever I pick could be president immediately if something were to happen," Clinton told CNN earlier this month. "That's the most important qualification."

Another top consideration for Clinton and her aides, Democrats said, is finding someone she actually wants to work with, not necessarily someone who checks regional or specific electorate boxes. She, perhaps more than most presumptive nominees in recent history, knows the inner-workings of the West Wing intimately.

This could bode well for several Democrats, who aides say Clinton enjoyed campaigning with this year, including Kaine, Perez, Castro and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey.

For all the calculations about who would make a better running mate, the list of actual candidates is believed to be fairly small. Clinton is not expected to make a decision before Trump reveals his choice at the Republican convention, but aides say she is almost certain to have her decision made privately by then.

Each Democrat being considered offers a variety of pros and cons that Podesta, Mills and other aides are currently weighing. A veteran Washington lawyer, James Hamilton, is also overseeing the vetting of the candidates.

The real scrutiny, though, comes through the work of Democratic lawyers and researchers who are assigned specific candidates and are walled-off from others. They start by studying public records, searching for anything embarrassing, distracting or otherwise problematic.

One area of inquiry, for instance, is a batch of legal files in Richmond, Virginia, where death penalty cases of a young civil rights lawyer named Tim Kaine are being reviewed. Kaine was vetted by the Obama campaign eight years ago and people close to that process say nothing was discovered that would disqualify him.

Kaine, a former governor and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, is one of the few prospects with executive experience. He also speaks fluent Spanish, often conducting interviews on the campaign trail or on Capitol Hill in his second language. He is not a progressive firebrand, but that may be less of a demand than once thought during the heat of the Clinton-Sanders fight.

Castro is seen as young, vibrant and would further cement the Latino vote. But his experience is far less than anyone else on the list and some Democrats fear he could be cast as a lightweight.

Perez is seen as someone ready and willing to attack Trump and whose long history in labor politics could excite voters in labor strongholds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Yet he has spent most of his life as a political appointee, only successfully running for county council of Montgomery County, Maryland, in 2002.

While Warren is being actively considered, several Democrats close to both women are skeptical she will be selected. She has aggressively attacked Trump in recent weeks -- much to the delight of the Clinton campaign -- but the two do not have a personal relationship and Warren has, at times, been outspoken against some of the Clinton White House's policies.

Last week, Warren dropped by Clinton's headquarters and fired up the troops, leading one top Democrat to say: "Never say never. She's good."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/21/politics/hillary-clinton-vice-president-search/
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« Reply #307 on: June 23, 2016, 10:10:19 AM »

Swing State Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Florida; Dead Heat in Ohio, Pa.
By Sandy Fitzgerald   |   Tuesday, 21 Jun 2016

A new Quinnipiac University swing state poll puts Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in Florida, the two candidates in a dead heat in Ohio, and showing Pennsylvania is too close to call, while showing that Bernie Sanders still polls higher than Clinton over Trump in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

According to the poll numbers released on Tuesday:
Florida: Clinton 47 percent;  Trump 39
Ohio: Clinton and Trump, 40 percent each
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42 percent; Trump 41

The poll conducted from June 8-19, surveyed 975 Florida voters with a margin of error of  3.1 percentage points; 971 Ohio voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points; and 950 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

According to Quinnipiac, the focus was on the three states because no candidate since 1960 has won the presidential race without winning at least two of them.

Under potential presidential match ups:

Florida: Clinton over Trump 47 - 39 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent May 10. Sanders tops Trump 45 - 39 percent.
Ohio: Clinton and Trump tied 40 - 40 percent, compared to a small 43 - 39 percent Trump lead May 10. Sanders leads Trump 48 - 38 percent.
Pennsylvania: Clinton at 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent, virtually unchanged from the 43 - 42 percent lean to Clinton May 10. Sanders tops Trump 47 - 40 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:

Florida: Clinton tops Trump 42 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Ohio: Clinton at 38 percent, with Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton at 39 percent to Trump's 36 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein.

And by the states, Florida voters gave both Trump and Clinton negative favorability ratings, of 39-53 percent for her and 33-61 percent for him. In other Florida numbers:

Men: Drops from 49 - 36 percent May 10 to 45 - 41 percent today.
Women: Clinton's lead grows from 48 - 35 percent in May to 52 - 34 percent today.
Republicans: Trump 82 - 8 percent
Democrats: Clinton 93 - 2 among Democrats and 44 - 35 percent among independent voters.
White voters: Trump over Clinton, 51 - 36 percent
Non-white voters: Clinton over Trump,  72 - 15 percent.

In other breakdowns in Florida:

60 - 31 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
47 - 36 percent that she has higher moral standards;
53 - 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
43 percent say Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 40 percent trust Clinton;
44 percent that Clinton is more inspiring, with 42 percent for Trump;
46 percent that Trump is a stronger leader, with 45 percent for Clinton;
Better creating jobs, Trump, 49 - 41 percent;
Immigration, Clinton, 50 - 43 percent;
Against ISIS, Trump, 48 - 42 percent;
Responding to an international crisis, Clinton, 54 - 39 percent;
Inviting to a barbecue, Trump, 48-40 percent;
In a personal crisis, Clinton, 49 - 40 percent.

In Ohio, voters gave Clinton a 35-59 percent favorability rating, with Trump at 32-59 percent. In other numbers:

Women: Clinton from 43 - 36 percent over Trump May 10 to 48 - 31 percent today.
Men: Trump 51 - 36 percent in May and 49 - 32 percent today.
Republicans: Trump 76 - 6 percent among Republicans and 41 - 32 percent among independent voters;
Democrats: Clinton 80 - 9 percent;
White voters: Trump 46 - 32 percent;
Non-white voters: Clinton 78 - 8 percent.

In other traits:

57 - 33 percent, Clinton is better prepared to be president;
45 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
53 - 36 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
44 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
46 - 40 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
49 - 41 percent that Trump is a stronger leader.

Creating jobs, Trump, 52-39 percent;
Immigration, Clinton, 53-53 percent;
ISIS, Trump, 54-38 percent;
International crisis, Clinton, 52-41 percent;
Barbecue, Trump, 50-36 percent;
Personal crisis, Clinton, 45-42 percent.

In Pennsylvania, where voters give Clinton a negative 41 - 56 percent favorability rating, and Trump a negative 35 - 60 percent:

Women: Clinton leads 50 - 34 percent;
Men: Trump leads 50 - 33 percent;
Republicans: 78 - 7 percent and 42 - 34 percent among independent voters;
Democrats: Clinton, 82 - 7 percent.
White voters: Trump, 47 - 38 percent;
Non-white voters: Clinton, 66 - 15 percent.

In other traits:

59 - 32 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
47 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
54 - 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
44 - 40 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
45 - 41 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
47 percent that Trump is a stronger leader and 46 percent that Clinton is stronger;
Creating jobs, Trump, 52-39 percent;
Immigration, Clinton, 51-44 percent;
ISIS, Trump, 51-42 percent;
International crisis, Clinton, 54-38 percent;
Barbecue, Trump, 52-36 percent;
Personal crisis, 45-44 percent, Clinton.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Swing-State-Poll-Quinnipiac-Clinton/2016/06/21/id/734831/#ixzz4CQJ8maWu
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« Reply #308 on: June 23, 2016, 12:12:34 PM »

Trump's VP Front-runner: Sen. Sessions of Alabama

Image: Trump's VP Front-runner: Sen. Sessions of Alabama  (Photo by Molly Riley/AFP/Getty Images) 
By John Gizzi
Thursday, 23 Jun 2016
 
With less than a month to go before the Republican National Convention that will make Donald Trump's nomination for president official, sources close to the billionaire candidate told Newsmax Wednesday that his top choice, at the moment, as his vice presidential running mate is Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama.

Requesting anonymity, the sources told us that Trump feels personally comfortable with swashbuckling conservative Sessions, 69, who was the first member of the Senate to endorse his candidacy and who frequently speaks with him.

The square Sessions seems to fit many square holes for Trump: he's conservative and nails down the party's right flank, he endorsed Trump early and has been extremely loyal, he has Washington legislative experience — a key requirement — and importantly, he can be totally trusted never to criticize Trump no matter what he might say in the coming months.

Senate Judiciary Committee member Sessions has already had a "strong impact." His immigration legislation has already been the cornerstone of trumps Mexico and deportation policies. Sessions played a key role in creating Trump's surprise list of a dozen Supreme Court appointees he would consider. The list pleased conservatives and was particularly responsible for Trump naming Judge William Pryor (who succeeded Sessions as state attorney general of Alabama) as a top choice, a source said.

Moreover, judged the fifth-most-conservative U.S. senator by the "National Journal," and with lifetime ratings of 96 percent from the American Conservative Union and 80 percent from the Heritage Action Fund, insiders say by picking sessions Trump will be able to stake positions more in the center and even to the left of Hillary Clinton.

"The selection will reassure conservatives," said Franklin & Marshall College Professor G. Terry Madonna, considered the premier pollster in Pennsylvania. "Sessions is one of the more conservative senators — that should be reassuring to economic conservatives and the religious right."

Among issues where Sessions has been a leader on the right have been as a hard-line opponent of illegal immigration, Obamacare, and abortion. He was a leading proponent of tax cuts under the George W. Bush administration and helped lead the fight against repeal of the "Don't ask, don't tell" rule regarding gays in the military.

Sessions did support the Iraq War, which Trump now denounces Clinton for backing. But he also never disagrees with Trump in public, which "the Donald" is said to appreciate.

"Jeff is solid," former Sen. Jon Kyl (R.-Ariz.), who worked closely with Sessions on the Senate Judiciary Committee for many years, told Newsmax Wednesday as rumors of his possible selection mounted.

Kyl also told us that "Sen. Sessions is well grounded in all of the major areas and would be prepared to step in should there be a need."

He was referring to another reason Sessions backers close to Trump feel the senator is now leading for the Number Two spot: the long-standing Republican Party tradition of an "outsider-insider" national ticket.

Going back to 1868, when retired Gen. and first-time candidate Ulysses Grant was nominated for president and tapped House Speaker Schuyler Colfax for vice president, the GOP has had a history of almost always running a seasoned political "pro" for vice president when the nominee for the top job is a political outsider or non-office-holder.

Gen. Dwight Eisenhower was matched with known anti-communist Sen. Richard Nixon in 1952 and, more recently, "anti-Washington" nominees Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush turned to "insiders" George H.W. Bush and Dick Cheney, respectively, as running mates.

In Sessions, Trump — who has never held elected office before — would have a running mate who has been active in politics since he was in the Young Republicans at Huntingdon College in Alabama back when the GOP in the South was in the proverbial telephone booth.

Tapped by President Reagan to be U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Alabama in 1981, University of Alabama Law School graduate and U.S. Army Reserve Capt. Sessions developed a reputation as "the Southern Giuliani" for his successful prosecution record.

When Reagan appointed Sessions to the U.S. District Court in 1986, civil rights and liberal groups mobilized charged he had made insensitive comments about the civil rights movement — comments, Sessions insisted, were made "in jest" and which he was apologized for.

But supporters could never muster the one additional vote they needed in the Senate Judiciary Committee to break a 9-9 tie and report the Sessions nomination to the Senate. The nomination was withdrawn.

Sessions went on to be elected state attorney general in 1994 and, two years later, was easily elected to the Senate seat relinquished by the political actor pivotal to thwarting his nomination to the bench: Democrat Howell Heflin, who after saying he would support Sessions on the Judiciary Committee, ended up voting "no."

One unique part of a Trump-Sessions team-up that Democrats are sure to bring up is that, with Trump recently turning 70 and Sessions turning 70 in December, theirs would be the oldest national ticket of a major party in history. However, Trump is said not to care about this and it would seem that a Democratic nominee who is 69 would not try to make this an issue.

Plus, reports suggests the Trump will not name his vice president shall not many early, but wants to save it for the convention as a major touch point in his political coronation.

While friends of Trump acknowledge that sessions is the current front runner they also admit that it's not concrete until it's announced. Other candidates that make the shortlist or Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona, Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma, Gen. Mike Flynn, former director of the defense intelligence agency, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

http://www.newsmax.com/John-Gizzi/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-vice-president-frontrunner/2016/06/23/id/735301/#ixzz4CQo4YR8i
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« Reply #309 on: June 23, 2016, 01:23:43 PM »

Florida: Clinton 47 percent;  Trump 39

I believe this.   I play locally and talk to people.  Trump was LOVED 6 months ago.

These days, many of the same people have grown tired of him.   Once they learned what he was really about, and learned how reckless some of the things were, they just lost interest.

See, the "swing" voters are a mile wide and an inch thick.  Trump was the flavor of the week.  Now they're more interested in other things, Big Brother or Lebron winning a ring, or NFL mini-camps or whatever.   The Trump Show is kinda stupid now that the novelty has worn off.
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« Reply #310 on: June 29, 2016, 01:00:51 PM »

Poll: Clinton Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump in Swing States
By Cathy Burke   |    Wednesday, 29 Jun 2016
 
Hillary Clinton is polling higher than Donald Trump in seven swing states, holding leads ranging from 4 to 17 points, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The states polled by a Ballotpedia survey showed Clinton ahead of Trump overall by 11 points, 48 percent to 37 percent, with 14 percent picking "neither."

Here's the swing-state breakdown:

•Florida: Clinton 51 percent; Trump 37 percent
•Iowa: Clinton 45 percent; Trump 41 percent
•Michigan: Clinton 50 percent; Trump 33 percent
•North Carolina: Clinton 48 percent, Trump 38 percent
•Ohio: Clinton 46 percent; Trump 37 percent
•Pennsylvania: Clinton 49 percent; Trump 35 percent
•Virginia: Clinton 45 percent; Trump 38 percent

According to the survey, Clinton also maintained her advantage when respondents were offered a third option, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.
 
Here's the overall results in a three-way race:

•Clinton: 44 percent
•Trump: 34 percent
•Johnson: 13 percent
•Neither: 13 percent

 Ballotpedia also polled Clinton in presidential matchups against GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan and Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich – though both men have disavowed any interest in running and Trump has been the party's presumptive nominee since early May.

According to the survey, Kasich beat Clinton in five states – Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia – and Ryan bested her in three: Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Poll-Swing-State-Clinton-Trump/2016/06/29/id/736246/#ixzz4D05Qxut6
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« Reply #311 on: June 29, 2016, 01:02:50 PM »

Nate Silver: Clinton has 79 Percent Chance of Winning Election
By Theodore Bunker   |    Wednesday, 29 Jun 2016

Nate Silver predicted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the presidency, compared to Donald Trump's 20 percent, the founder of the sports and politics analysis website FiveThirtyEight said on ABC's "Good Morning America" show Wednesday.

"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said on the show. "She's taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

If Clinton were to lose, she would be the first candidate since former Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis to "to blow a lead this large." The Duke lost to George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Silver, who correctly predicted the results in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election and all 50 states in 2012, doesn't think Trump, the GOP nominee, has enough appeal outside of his core supporters.

"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary, a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."

Silver also defended his August GOP primary prediction, which gave Trump a 2 percent chance of securing the Republican nomination.

"That wasn't based on looking at polls," Silver said. "Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is, don't try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public."

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Nate-Silver-Clinton-Trump-Election/2016/06/29/id/736265/#ixzz4D05uxfSv
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« Reply #312 on: June 29, 2016, 01:14:29 PM »

we always gotta remember that 240 was worlds more correct than Nate Silver, when it came to predicting Trump's rise in the repub primaries.
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« Reply #313 on: June 29, 2016, 03:50:15 PM »

Fox News Poll: Clinton up by 6 points, 89 percent say 'hot-headed' describes Trump
By  Dana Blanton 
Published June 29, 2016
FoxNews.com

Donald Trump has had a few rocky weeks on the campaign trail, and it shows in the latest Fox News Poll.  Just over half of Republicans would rather have someone besides Trump as their nominee, and his support in the presidential ballot test has dropped seven points since May. 

Democrat Hillary Clinton is up 44-38 percent over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.  Earlier this month, Clinton had a three-point edge (42-39 percent).  In May, Trump was up by three (45-42 percent).  Clinton’s current lead is just inside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

The national poll, released Wednesday, finds she has a similar advantage when voters are asked about confidence in the candidates to make the “right” decisions for the country if they were president:  48 percent are at least somewhat confident Clinton would.  It’s 42 percent for Trump.

In the matchup, Clinton is the choice among blacks (87-3 percent), women (51-32 percent), voters under age 45 (45-35 percent), and those earning less than $50,000 annually (52-30 percent).

CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS

Trump leads among white evangelical Christians (66-18 percent), whites without a college degree (51-33 percent), gun owners (52-30 percent), whites (48-34 percent), men (46-36 percent), and independents (39-31 percent).

Since May, Trump has lost ground with Republicans (-8 points), whites without degrees (-10 points), and men (-9 points).

The race is almost even among just those “extremely” or “very” interested in the election (45 Clinton to 43 Trump).  This group went for Trump by four points in early June (45-41 percent).

Party unity is a trouble spot for Trump.  Just 74 percent of Republicans back him over Clinton, down from 82 percent in May.  For comparison, Mitt Romney lost despite garnering 93 percent support among Republicans in 2012.  In addition, just over half of Republicans would prefer a different nominee (51 percent someone else vs. 48 percent Trump).  And while most GOP voters describe Trump as intelligent, more than 7-in-10 feel he’s hot-headed and obnoxious.  More on that later.

Eighty-three percent of Democrats support Clinton in the ballot test.  That’s better than Trump does among Republicans, yet worse than the 92 percent backing President Obama received in 2012.  By a 21-point margin, Democrats want Clinton (58 percent) as their party’s nominee over Bernie Sanders (37 percent).

Some 66 percent of Democrats who preferred Sanders are backing Clinton over Trump.  By comparison, only 52 percent of Republicans who want someone else to lead their party support Trump over Clinton.

Twenty-four percent of Republicans lack confidence that Trump would make the right decisions for the country.  Fourteen percent of Democrats feel that way about Clinton.

"The results here aren't disastrous for Trump given the troubles he's encountered the past few weeks,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “He's within striking distance.  But he absolutely must combat the growing perception that he is temperamentally unsuited and intellectually unprepared to be president."

What words best describe the candidates?  There are a couple things voters generally agree on, and that’s both Clinton and Trump are patriotic -- and lack honesty.

Clinton outperforms Trump by the widest margin on “experienced,” as 77 percent say that describes her, while just 34 percent feel the same of Trump.

Far more see Clinton (82 percent) than Trump (66 percent) as “intelligent,” and “sensible” (54 percent Clinton vs. 35 percent Trump).

About six-in-ten think “patriotic” fits each.

Clinton is still dogged by low honesty numbers, as a record low 30 percent think she’s “honest and trustworthy,” and 58 percent describe her as “corrupt.”

Trump doesn’t have much to brag about here either:  just 34 percent describe him as “honest and trustworthy” and 45 percent say “corrupt” fits.

Most voters feel Trump is “hot-headed” (89 percent) and “obnoxious” (83 percent), while far fewer say those apply to Clinton (35 percent “hot-headed” and 45 percent “obnoxious”).

Less than half say the phrase “cares about people like me” describes Clinton (45 percent) and only about one third say it fits Trump (35 percent).

“While our polling shows a clear positive trend for Clinton, her six-point lead is notably small considering voters almost universally think Trump is hot-headed and obnoxious, and most think he’s inexperienced,” says Anderson.

“This race is nowhere close to breaking open, despite some huge perceived deficiencies in Trump’s character.” 

Pollpourri

Libertarian Gary Johnson captures 10 percent in a hypothetical three-way vote.  That causes both Clinton and Trump to lose ground, although for the most part she maintains her edge (41-36 percent).  Another 14 percent is up for grabs.

Fully 92 percent of those backing Clinton in the two-way race also back her in the three-way matchup.  For Trump, 89 percent stick with him.

The contest for the Congress looks similar to the presidential race.  When voters are asked to choose between the Democratic and Republican candidates in their district, Democrats are up by five points, 46-41 percent.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,017 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from June 26-28, 2016.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/06/29/fox-news-poll-clinton-up-by-6-points-89-percent-say-hot-headed-describes-trump.html?intcmp=hpbt1
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« Reply #314 on: June 29, 2016, 03:56:39 PM »

Fox News Poll: Clinton up by 6 points, 89 percent say 'hot-headed' describes Trump


Who are the 11% of Americans that look at Trump and say "Wow, that is one calm and level-headed man!"

Huh
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« Reply #315 on: June 29, 2016, 04:05:45 PM »

Who are the 11% of Americans that look at Trump and say "Wow, that is one calm and level-headed man!"

Huh

This is actually a good question.

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« Reply #316 on: June 29, 2016, 04:09:29 PM »

This is actually a good question.



I mean, even among his most ardent supporters - they LIKE him because he's violent and raging and angry and ready to break some things.

I guess there are 11% of the population who are actually more rage-filled than Donald Trump.


They must poll in prisons.
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« Reply #317 on: June 30, 2016, 06:11:23 PM »

Rasmussen: Trump Takes 4-Point Lead Over Clinton
By Cathy Burke   |    Thursday, 30 Jun 2016

Donald Trump has jumped out ahead of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 4 percentage points, a weekly poll of the likely presidential contenders shows.

Rasmussen Report's "White House Watch" released Thursday, breaks down the candidates' support among voters like this:

•Trump: 43 percent
•Clinton: 39 percent
•Another Candidate: 12 percent
•Undecided: 5 percent

In Rasmussen's weekly poll last week, Clinton had 44 percent support compared with Trump's 39 percent. According to the pollster, the new results reflect Trump's highest level of support against Clinton since October.

This week's survey also shows that among Republicans, Trump has 75 percent support, while among Democrats, he garners 14 percent. Clinton has the support of 76 percent of Democrats, and 10 percent of GOP voters.

The Trump jump comes in the wake of news last week that included Britain's vote to leave the European Union, and the terrorist attack at an airport in Istanbul, Turkey.

The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Rasmussen-Trump-Clinton-Poll/2016/06/30/id/736487/#ixzz4D7CDjGde
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« Reply #318 on: June 30, 2016, 06:14:25 PM »

Chris Christie’s Shameless Shilling For Donald Trump May Pay Off After All
The New Jersey governor is reportedly on Trump’s vice presidential shortlist.
06/30/2016
Marina Fang    
Associate Politics Editor, The Huffington Post

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), once a rival to presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, has emerged as a contender to become Trump’s vice presidential running mate.

Christie, who endorsed Trump soon after he ended his own bid for the GOP nomination, is being vetted by those leading the real estate mogul’s VP search, The New York Times first reported. A source confirmed the news to CNN.

As Trump has caused controversy after controversy, Christie has become one of his strongest defenders. When the real estate mogul launched a series of racist attacks against a federal judge, Christie immediately intervened by arguing that Trump was not racist.

Within Trump’s campaign, Christie has taken on an influential role, leading the transition team that is planning a potential Trump administration. He is reportedly helping Trump secure donations from prominent GOP donors, who so far have been reluctant to back Trump, and has reached out to his fellow GOP governors to encourage them to support the real estate mogul.

The New Jersey governor’s quick endorsement of Trump in February surprised many political observers, including politicians in his home state. Once seen as an establishment Republican and rising star within the party, Christie attaching himself to Trump’s candidacy and brand seemed to be a shameless political move. In particular, Christie spent much of his presidential campaign criticizing Trump, once calling him “a carnival barker” and “entertainer in chief.”

Christie’s now steadfast support of Trump has also been the subject of mockery. During one of his first appearances with Trump, people on social media commented that Christie looked like a hostage.

“I don’t know what I was supposed to be doing,” Christie said in response. “I was standing there listening to him. All these armchair psychiatrists should give it a break. ... He was answering questions from the national press corps, and I was listening. This is part of the hysteria of the people who oppose my Trump endorsement. They want to read anything into it that can be negative.”

“So no, I wasn’t being held hostage,” he added. “No, I wasn’t sitting up there thinking, ‘Oh my God, what have I done?’”

More recently, Christie had to deny that he is Trump’s “manservant,” following reports earlier this month that he was seen picking up Trump’s McDonald’s order.

Trump is expected to announce his vice presidential pick at the GOP convention in Cleveland next month.

UPDATE: 7:24 p.m. — Trump aides told The Washington Post later Thursday that the announcement could come as soon as next week, in order to unify the party ahead of the convention.

In addition to Christie, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) also is a strong contender to be Trump’s running mate. Gingrich, like Christie, has defended Trump, arguing on Sunday that Trump’s tendency to eschew facts and take inconsistent policy positions are signs that he is “evolving” as a candidate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-chris-christie-vp_us_57756feae4b0a629c1a91c0c?section=
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« Reply #319 on: Today at 08:45:16 AM »

WashPost's Cillizza: Hillary Has 'Large-Scale Problems,' Trump 'Can Win This Race'
NewsBusters ^ | June 30, 2016 | Tom Blumer
Posted on 7/1/2016, 2:00:57 AM by 2ndDivisionVet

Apparently following up on his Washington Post column earlier this week, the paper's Chris Cillizza appeared on Thursday's Morning Joe show and observed that Hillary Clinton has "large-scale problems on honesty and trustworthines," that "she is the status quo" and "represents the past." Because of that, and despite the conventional wisdom in much of the establishment press that Mrs. Clinton can't possibly lose in November, Cillizza argues that her Republican opponent "can win this race."

Cillizza has previously staunchly denied media bias in the coverage of Mrs. Clinton's campign. That's hard to square with what Tim Graham at NewsBusters observed on Wednesday, namely the contrast between Cillizza's take — "Hillary Clinton’s email story continues to get harder and harder to believe" — and the fact that no televsion network had "noticed this latest AP (Associated Press) story and (Mrs. Clinton's) latest (very problematic) batch of emails."

Given how he has blown off challenges to Mrs. Clinton's integrity in the past, Cillizza is apparently just now fully appreciating how vulnerable she is.

In February, as opponent Bernie Sanders and others were demanding that she release her paid-speech transcripts, Cillizza gave her a pass, deciding that he would prefer to "take Clinton at her word when she describes what the nature of her speeches were: Recounting high profile events and her role in them." Translation: I don't need any stinking transcripts. I'm going to believe what I want to believe, and no one else should care about what's in those speeches.

In April 2015, Cillizza infamously claimed that "No, the media isn’t biased in favor of Hillary Clinton." His basis was the stories generated by the mainstream media's gatekeepers like the Post, the New York Times and the Associated Press, which had indeed been covering her scandals. As Graham at NewsBusters wrote at the time, that's nice, but the negative stories about Mrs. Clinton were following a two-decades-plus pattern going back to her husband's presidential administration of seldom if ever making it to the airwaves:

... the national newspapers, including The Washington Post, have published some hard-hitting investigative pieces on the Clinton Foundation, on her speaking fees, and on the e-mail scandal. But the TV networks have barely touched the Clinton Foundation, were bored by the speaking-fees stuff, and have now lost interest in the e-mail scandal.

This was also the pattern of media coverage of the Bill Clinton era. Newspapers would break big scoops about the Clintons accepting donations from China and so on and the networks would yawn.

This pattern has also repeated itself during the Obama administration. If it doesn't get to the TV screens, many low-information voters won't ever learn about Mrs. Clinton's scandals. Thanks to New Media, that's less true now than it was during Bill Clinton's presidency. It also may be that social media, despite the speech policing by the new gatekeepers at Facebook and Twitter, is causing more relevant information to get to the low-info folks than was the case eight or perhaps even four years ago. Perhaps the poll which I will note at the end of this post demonstrates that.

Here is the video of the portion of Cillizza's Thursday morning Morning Joe appearance where he discusses Mrs. Clinton's vulnerabilities:

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)

Transcript:

CHRIS CILLIZZA, WASHINGTON POST: What's so hard if you are Republican it is— this is a winnable race. You can argue and say very winnable race. She has large-scale problems on honest and trustworthiness, favorability, the idea that she is the status quo and the idea that she doesn’t represent the future, she represents the past. These are all things that if you focus a race on her, you can win this race.

Well, Chris, the reason "you can win this race" is because, as you're finally admitting, Mrs. Clinton has huge and largely intractable problems.

Apparently, Cillizza's opening "What's so hard" reference was to recent polling showing Mrs. Clinton ahead of presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump by margins ranging from 1 percent to 13 percent.

The frustration tempered a bit for Republicans and others who oppose Mrs. Clinton Thursday. The latest polling from Rasmussen showed Trump with a 4-point lead. Rasmussen's commentary noted that for all practical purposes, even though he is the presumptive GOP nominee, "Trump is already running a third-party candidacy against the establishments of both the Democratic and Republican parties."
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« Reply #320 on: Today at 09:26:59 AM »

"Rasmussen's commentary noted that for all practical purposes, even though he is the presumptive GOP nominee, "Trump is already running a third-party candidacy against the establishments of both the Democratic and Republican parties." "

That would be the most amazing strategy to co-opt any chance for a rival third party challenge to get started. If Trump looks more "third partyish" than any potential third party, then he gets a whole lot of "undecided" voters come election day. The Libertarian Party is no treat, as they're running two old RINOs, this time! How establishment can you get without being Hillary? LOL!

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