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Author Topic: Hot Stove in Baseball - Who's going where?  (Read 10655 times)
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« on: November 05, 2010, 09:15:43 AM »

Ok, the first deal is made. Papi staying with BoSox.

My guess is they'll stay with Beltre and Martinez as well.

Werth and Crawford?

My gut feeling says Werth is staying. He's got the Jeter factor - more impact in Phillies than in other uniforms. He's proven himself in a stacked lineup. But he's not a franchise player like Hamilton.
So other teams won't offer as much. And with Yankees not interested, that will enable Phillies to keep him.
My guess is - Werth five year deal - they may even try to trade away Jimmy Rollins to make room for that.

Doubt they'll get any takers on Rollins without sweetening the deal.

Crawford - I'm guessing LA Dodgers (!).

Cliff Lee - either a long 5-7 year deal down in Texas. Or a short 2-3 year deal in NY.

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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2010, 09:21:16 AM »

Ok, the first deal is made. Papi staying with BoSox.

My guess is they'll stay with Beltre and Martinez as well.

Werth and Crawford?

My gut feeling says Werth is staying. He's got the Jeter factor - more impact in Phillies than in other uniforms. He's proven himself in a stacked lineup. But he's not a franchise player like Hamilton.
So other teams won't offer as much. And with Yankees not interested, that will enable Phillies to keep him.
My guess is - Werth five year deal - they may even try to trade away Jimmy Rollins to make room for that.

Doubt they'll get any takers on Rollins without sweetening the deal.

Crawford - I'm guessing LA Dodgers (!).

Cliff Lee - either a long 5-7 year deal down in Texas. Or a short 2-3 year deal in NY.


werth is pretty much gone probably detroit. i would rather see philly trade howard for adam dunn and keep werth. howard numbers slipped badly last year. as his bodyweight goes down so does his hr's and rbi's.
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2010, 09:34:10 AM »

Ok, the first deal is made. Papi staying with BoSox.

My guess is they'll stay with Beltre and Martinez as well.

Werth and Crawford?

My gut feeling says Werth is staying. He's got the Jeter factor - more impact in Phillies than in other uniforms. He's proven himself in a stacked lineup. But he's not a franchise player like Hamilton.
So other teams won't offer as much. And with Yankees not interested, that will enable Phillies to keep him.
My guess is - Werth five year deal - they may even try to trade away Jimmy Rollins to make room for that.

Doubt they'll get any takers on Rollins without sweetening the deal.

Crawford - I'm guessing LA Dodgers (!).

Cliff Lee - either a long 5-7 year deal down in Texas. Or a short 2-3 year deal in NY.

I think there's little chance both Martinez and Beltre stay in Boston.  Beltre lives on the West Coast, and took the one year deal in Boston to re-establish himself as a FA.  VMart is going to cost an AAV near double than what he did last year.  Boston will be looking to get younger - and will probably target Crawford.

Werth, another possible future red sox, is moving.  He hired Boras to get maximum $$

Cliff Lee has no chance of signing a short deal, but I also think a 7 year deal is crazy too.  The Yankees were willing to give up their best hitting prospect in 15 years, who is also ranked in the top 4 of all MiLB prospects for a two month rental of Lee, so they absolutely want him.  I look for them to throw a big deal at Lee, as will Texas. It will just be decided by where Lee ultimately wants to go.
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2010, 05:41:58 PM »

werth is pretty much gone probably detroit. i would rather see philly trade howard for adam dunn and keep werth. howard numbers slipped badly last year. as his bodyweight goes down so does his hr's and rbi's.

Detroit's a pretty good guess. Could add some much needed depth to that lineup.

Still, they're nowhere near a World Series, or even the playoffs for that matter.

Question is - how important is the chance of winning a title for Werth?

Crawford could be heading for Detroit though. He's more versatile than Werth offensively, can hit off just about any top 4 position.


Another thing that will be just crazy to watch, should be right about after the All Star game, is the return of Strasbourg. Will he recover from his Tommy John surgery? Or is he another Joel Zumanya?

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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2010, 08:27:10 PM »

Detroit's a pretty good guess. Could add some much needed depth to that lineup.

Still, they're nowhere near a World Series, or even the playoffs for that matter.

Question is - how important is the chance of winning a title for Werth?

Crawford could be heading for Detroit though. He's more versatile than Werth offensively, can hit off just about any top 4 position.


Another thing that will be just crazy to watch, should be right about after the All Star game, is the return of Strasbourg. Will he recover from his Tommy John surgery? Or is he another Joel Zumanya?

Veralnder, Jackson, Porcello, Scherzer  - Detroit can possibly contend in the central with the addition of another bat to compliment Cabrerra.

Strasburg should be fine.  He's young enough and they caught it early.  Didn't Zumaya hurt himself playing guitar hero or something?
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2010, 10:44:54 PM »

Cliff Lee has no chance of signing a short deal, but I also think a 7 year deal is crazy too.  The Yankees were willing to give up their best hitting prospect in 15 years, who is also ranked in the top 4 of all MiLB prospects for a two month rental of Lee, so they absolutely want him.  I look for them to throw a big deal at Lee, as will Texas. It will just be decided by where Lee ultimately wants to go.

that wasnt enough for the rangers apparently. They wanted more on top of the pitching prospects+montero that was offered for lee.

Montero is not even the best catching prospect in the yankees farm system though. Austin Romine is by far a more complete player and next in line to replace posada in a year.


As a yankee fan i wouldnt mind signing werth. He may strike out a bit, but a solid run producer. Where he would play is the big question. Gardner, grandy and swisher are all mainstay's right now.

If it were up to me i would NOT persue lee. He spanked the yanks in the post season. I'm uncomfortable with handing a blank check to a player that just kicked our ass. I would much rather go after greinke.

There is no chance crawford comes to new york.

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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2010, 07:47:39 AM »

that wasnt enough for the rangers apparently. They wanted more on top of the pitching prospects+montero that was offered for lee.

There were actually two main reasons.  They soured on David Adams when they thought his ankle injury was more severe than initially thought..  That's when they asked for Nunez and Nova, which would make the price for Lee higher for the Yankees for a two month rental than Cleveland and Philly got when they traded him for two and one years' time, respectively.  Plus, Texas apparently was really high on Justin Smoak.  Their mistake.

Montero is not even the best catching prospect in the yankees farm system though. Austin Romine is by far a more complete player and next in line to replace posada in a year.

Sorry fellow Yankee fan, but both these statements are completely false.  Romine is a better defensive catcher, but that is it.  Heck, Sanchez will be ranked higher than him within the organization soon.  Not saying Romine isn't good, but he may not even project to being a full time MLB catcher.  Montero is a once every twenty years prospect, despite needing defensive work. He wrecked AAA pitching this year in the second half and he's still not 21, and he did it with great primary and secondary hitting skills. There is literally nothing about his hitting profile that isn't perfect. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but Montero is about as close as it gets.

Plus it's already been announced that Monetero will go into ST competing for the catcher position.  If he plays well, he'll split C/DH duties with Posada.

As a yankee fan i wouldnt mind signing werth. He may strike out a bit, but a solid run producer. Where he would play is the big question. Gardner, grandy and swisher are all mainstay's right now.

I like Werth too.  He's a great player.  The trouble is, the difference between Werth and the outfield we have  will not justify the expense - it's not enough of an upgrade.  The Yankees need players who are cheap like Gardner and relatively cheap like Swisher in order to offset the ridiculous salaries some of the other players make.   Gardener being a top 15 player in the AL will make them look upgrade in other areas.

If it were up to me i would NOT persue lee. He spanked the yanks in the post season. I'm uncomfortable with handing a blank check to a player that just kicked our ass. I would much rather go after greinke.

I don't care if Lee beat us in the past.  He's elite, and signing him improves our team and makes a postseason staff lethal.  It won't be a blank check anyway - he's 32 and the Yankees will have to be careful because too high an offer could prompt Sabathia to exercise his opt out clause after next year to try to get more money.

Greinke is stellar, but has tremendous social aniety issues and I believe NY is on his no trade list.  High pressure areas do not seem to be the  best place for him.  He could be great, but he could be a disaster.  I'd like to see the Yankees continue to try to pry Soria away from them.

There is no chance crawford comes to new york.

I agree.

Check out riveraveblues.com if you don't already.  It's easily the best Yankee blog I read.  Very smart and very informative.
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2010, 08:05:04 AM »

There is just no way montero becomes an everyday catcher. Maybe 3rd basebman?

i think romine will be a mainstay in the backstop, be it with the yankees or another team.

you think gardner will be a top 15 player in the a.l. Shocked thats a bold statement bro.
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2010, 09:06:09 AM »

There is just no way montero becomes an everyday catcher. Maybe 3rd basebman?

i think romine will be a mainstay in the backstop, be it with the yankees or another team.

you think gardner will be a top 15 player in the a.l. Shocked thats a bold statement bro.

Posada is as bad a defensive catcher as there is, but his superior bat made it worthwhile.  Montero projects to be even better, and Posada is one of the best offensive catchers ever.

Romine very well could be a backup, or even full time if Montero is SO bad that he becomes a DH.  Unlikely though.

Not will be, Garder WAS ranked #9 in the AL, and 19th overall, according to  WAR:

 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2010&month=0

Keep in mind, a lot of that value is due to his defense.  Anyway, whether that's to believed or not, he was very valuable, especially considering his minimum pay.

Either way, the point is, would the Yankees spend 15M more for an upgrade that's not valued at 15M?  In other words, the difference in talent does not warrant the expenditure or the further limiting of  payroll flexibility.
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2010, 10:31:51 AM »


If it were up to me i would NOT persue lee. He spanked the yanks in the post season. I'm uncomfortable with handing a blank check to a player that just kicked our ass. I would much rather go after greinke.






No way Greinke comes to the Yanks.he's already had anxiety issues and has a no-trade to the Yanks.he doesn't want to be in the big city.

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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2010, 01:32:21 PM »


No way Greinke comes to the Yanks.he's already had anxiety issues and has a no-trade to the Yanks.he doesn't want to be in the big city.



Its still his decision to make. the no-trade is a non starter.

sabathia had one foot in the door in boston before the yanks up'd the ante and landed him.

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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2010, 06:47:48 PM »

I think Lee will stay in TX. I doubt Boston will give Werth what he wants, he just took Boras as an agent and they wouldn't pay Bay.  I think Crawford goes to Anaheim. Beltre is as good as gone, maybe to Anaheim if they don't get Crawford. Boston might sign Vmart but i think they won't go high with the years.  I'd be shocked if Jeter leaves. I'm thinking somewhere around 4 years 80 mil.
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2010, 07:34:57 AM »

I think Lee will stay in TX. I doubt Boston will give Werth what he wants, he just took Boras as an agent and they wouldn't pay Bay.  I think Crawford goes to Anaheim. Beltre is as good as gone, maybe to Anaheim if they don't get Crawford. Boston might sign Vmart but i think they won't go high with the years.  I'd be shocked if Jeter leaves. I'm thinking somewhere around 4 years 80 mil.

That's not too rosy an outlook for your team.  Who do you think they'll go after, or do you see them going with Reddick, Lowrie and Co?  I doubt it.
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2010, 05:42:23 PM »

That's not too rosy an outlook for your team.  Who do you think they'll go after, or do you see them going with Reddick, Lowrie and Co?  I doubt it.
Not sure. I'm assuming they are going after Gonzalez hard next offseason.  The biggest upgrade they need is in the bullpen, even with the scrubs they had at the plate they scored plenty of runs. Youk gives them flexibility as he can play 1st or 3rd at a high level. They are really high on Saltalmachia(sp), so if Vmart leaves i think he's the everyday catcher to start the season. I think Lowrie was pretty impressive, he was finally healthy and at worst he'll be solid off the bench. My guess is they let Martinez walk as they won't commit to the years he wants, Youk goes to third and they get a serviceable guy or platoon at 1st and bank on Gonzalez in 2012.

That being said, if Lackey and Beckett pitched like they were supposed to last year it would have been a much closer race. If they bounce back, Lester and Bucholz continue to develop, Pap reverts to 05-08 form and they upgrade middle relief, the pitching will carry them. Obviously losing 30-100 from Beltre and Martinez would hurt, but with a healthy Ellsbury and Pedroia I think the blow could be handled. It's a lot of ifs obviously.
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2010, 06:18:12 PM »

Not sure. I'm assuming they are going after Gonzalez hard next offseason.  The biggest upgrade they need is in the bullpen, even with the scrubs they had at the plate they scored plenty of runs. Youk gives them flexibility as he can play 1st or 3rd at a high level. They are really high on Saltalmachia(sp), so if Vmart leaves i think he's the everyday catcher to start the season. I think Lowrie was pretty impressive, he was finally healthy and at worst he'll be solid off the bench. My guess is they let Martinez walk as they won't commit to the years he wants, Youk goes to third and they get a serviceable guy or platoon at 1st and bank on Gonzalez in 2012.

That being said, if Lackey and Beckett pitched like they were supposed to last year it would have been a much closer race. If they bounce back, Lester and Bucholz continue to develop, Pap reverts to 05-08 form and they upgrade middle relief, the pitching will carry them. Obviously losing 30-100 from Beltre and Martinez would hurt, but with a healthy Ellsbury and Pedroia I think the blow could be handled. It's a lot of ifs obviously.

I expect Beckett to be better, Lackey similar,  and Buchholz to get a little worse (if he doesn't improve his K rates.  If he does, he'll still be very good).  Papelbon's been on a decline for three years, and I think it's mostly due to his subluxation.  I don't see him getting to where he was.

I also don't think they can make the playoffs losing both Betre and VMart.  I can't see them waiting a whole year for AGon - I think they make a splash on Crawford or Werth.

Don't get me wrong, I see them right in the mix next year, but they're going to have to add to get there.


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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2010, 06:41:38 PM »

I expect Beckett to be better, Lackey similar,  and Buchholz to get a little worse (if he doesn't improve his K rates.  If he does, he'll still be very good).  Papelbon's been on a decline for three years, and I think it's mostly due to his subluxation.  I don't see him getting to where he was.

I also don't think they can make the playoffs losing both Betre and VMart.  I can't see them waiting a whole year for AGon - I think they make a splash on Crawford or Werth.

Don't get me wrong, I see them right in the mix next year, but they're going to have to add to get there.



I agree. They keep talking about bridge years etc, and 2012 is when it comes together with Inglesias, Kelly etc..coming up. I don's see them signing either of those guys (Worth, Crawford) to be honest. Hell, they were going to go into last year with Casey Kotchman at first base. In a perfect world Victor would sign and agree to move to 1st and Youk would go to 3rd, but Martinez is hell bent on staying a catcher. Not to beat a dead horse, but if they don't sign Ortiz to a long term deal his salary as well as Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and a few others come off the books after 2011, that is a lot of money to play with. My guess, and this is probably wrong lol, they upgrade the pen with a guy like Benoit or Downs and not much else.
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2010, 08:03:45 PM »

I agree. They keep talking about bridge years etc, and 2012 is when it comes together with Inglesias, Kelly etc..coming up. I don's see them signing either of those guys (Worth, Crawford) to be honest. Hell, they were going to go into last year with Casey Kotchman at first base. In a perfect world Victor would sign and agree to move to 1st and Youk would go to 3rd, but Martinez is hell bent on staying a catcher. Not to beat a dead horse, but if they don't sign Ortiz to a long term deal his salary as well as Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and a few others come off the books after 2011, that is a lot of money to play with. My guess, and this is probably wrong lol, they upgrade the pen with a guy like Benoit or Downs and not much else.

I don't think RSN has the stomach to hear anything about a bridge year again.   They'll make a splash somehow.  The thing is, I still don't know why Epstein felt the need to re-up Beckett a year before he had to.  Buchholz should have been "Beckett insurance", meaning they watch Beckett in his last year to see what they have, and if Buchholz flourishes (which he did) they aren't desperate, and don't rope themselves into an unfavorable contract.  Made little sense to me.

I think Westmorland was their best hitting prospect, and it's a shame what happened.  Hopefully he fully recovers and gets to the MLB.  He projected to be a very good hitter.  Iglesias will be solid, but I feel Kelley is all hype.

So, they'll have to make a big signing.  Werth isn't ideal due to his age, and I know Theo covets youth.  I think Crawford is the guy.  We'll see.

But you're right, it might be better for them to bide their time with the ideal situation they have in 2012.  I just don't think the fan base will tolerate it, and they will react accordingly.
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2010, 08:26:16 PM »

I don't think it's a matter of money, they have plenty. This is both guys big pay days, they are going to want, guessing around 5-6 year deals. They have been reluctant to go higher than 4 years with guys(Damon, Bay). I would love for them to sign Crawford, he is a great player but Ellsbury in their minds has just as much upside, is younger, and under their control. What do I know, though? The Lackey signing came out of nowhere last year so we'll see. I agree about Beckett, solid starter, but not the ace everyone assumed he'd be. He can't seem to put it together back to back years. The Red Sox Nation stuff makes me want to puke, so hopefully they all go away anyway. Grin
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2010, 07:06:38 AM »

I would love for them to sign Crawford, he is a great player but Ellsbury in their minds has just as much upside, is younger, and under their control.

I really doubt they see Ellsbury with Crawford upside.  He will never develop power.  Plus, he's only two years younger and I THINK is arb elligible now.

 I think we've seen what Ellsbury is - avg OBP guy, extremely fast, no power, no arm.  And, I may be piling on, but of all the hype surrounding players, this one is the one that bugged me the most.

It's not all him either - he had a great post season debut in 2007, and fans thought that's what he was.  The expectations became unreasonable.
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« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2010, 05:00:18 PM »

Joe Morgan gone from ESPN...best news i've heard all week.
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2010, 11:23:19 AM »

We will also be spared Miller's stupid pronunciation of all the hispanic names?

Also, Yankees meeting with Lee today.
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« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2010, 12:54:57 PM »

I really doubt they see Ellsbury with Crawford upside.  He will never develop power.  Plus, he's only two years younger and I THINK is arb elligible now.

 I think we've seen what Ellsbury is - avg OBP guy, extremely fast, no power, no arm.  And, I may be piling on, but of all the hype surrounding players, this one is the one that bugged me the most.

It's not all him either - he had a great post season debut in 2007, and fans thought that's what he was.  The expectations became unreasonable.

Didn't you say the same type of things about Lester?

Jacobe has been hurt.
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« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2010, 06:57:08 PM »

Didn't you say the same type of things about Lester?

Jacobe has been hurt.

Not really.  I thought Lester had good stuff, but I didn't think he would be anything special with the BB rates he had posted.  He got that under control and the rest is history.  I was wrong on that.  FWIW, I've been correct on Papelbon, Beckett, and Lackey though.

Ellsbury will not develop power.  He had 10 HRs total in 1000 AB in the minor leagues.  His arm will never improve.  He's in his statistical prime ages now.  I'm not saying his plate discipline won't get better, but I really think we've seen what he is - low to mid OBP, no arm, no power, ridiculous speed.

Like I said, I still think the sox can be a lethal team next year, but they're going to have to add FA to do it.  I don't think what they have on the farm or on the team right now will do it.
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« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2010, 07:26:59 PM »

Cashman flew to Arkansas (I think) to yap to Lee, I know no big surprise..

Rumors he will get close to what CC got, I think like 7 years for 168 million
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2010, 07:44:50 PM »

Cashman flew to Arkansas (I think) to yap to Lee, I know no big surprise..

Rumors he will get close to what CC got, I think like 7 years for 168 million

I doubt that.  He's three years older than Sabathia without the durability CC has shown throughout the years.
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