Twelve for '12: A Dozen Republicans Who Could Be the Next President

[Dos Equis]

Good ad.

Ron Paul touts 'pro-life' credentials in new TV commercial
Posted by
CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) - Rep. Ron Paul is once again doing what the other Republican presidential campaigns apparently are not doing: Spending big bucks to run commercials on broadcast and cable television.

This time the longtime congressman from Texas is going up with an ad titled "Life" in which the narrator says "Dr. Ron Paul: More than four thousand babies delivered. A man of faith committed to protecting life."

"This whole notion of life not being valuable, just was something I was never able to accept," says Paul in the 60 second spot.

The campaign says the ad will begin airing Friday on broadcast and cable television in Iowa, and on radio in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, the four states that vote first in the primary and caucus calendar. The campaign says the ad buy is around a million dollars and that the spots will run for weeks.

Paul's campaign recently went up with a sixty second ad that touted Paul's work supporting military veterans

Paul's new ad buys stands in contrast with the lack of paid commercials being put up on the airwaves or cable by the other campaigns, including those of Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the fundraising leaders among the GOP candidates.

This appears to be the fifth time the Paul campaign has gone up with a paid ad buy. In July, Paul ran a commercial in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada highlighting his opposition to raising the nation's debt ceiling.

In mid August, just three days after nearly winning a crucial Republican presidential straw poll in Ames, Iowa, Rep. Paul went up with a television commercial in Iowa and New Hampshire that grouped Perry, Romney, and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with President Barack Obama and the top two Democrats in Congress.

In early September, the Paul campaign said they spent six figures to go up with an ad in Iowa and New Hampshire that contrasted Paul's support for Ronald Reagan in 1980 to Perry's support of Al Gore's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination eight years later. Perry was a conservative Democrat at the time.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/14/ron-paul-touts-pro-life-credentials-in-new-tv-commercial/

[240 is Back]

Look, Cain tossed out something.   Its far from perfect, but at least it starts a debate.  

what are the primary 3 flaws with the 999 plan, in your opinion?

[Dos Equis]

Cain’s 9-9-9 Plan Gain’s Big-Name Backers
Friday, 14 Oct 2011

By Martin Gould and David A. Patten

More ways to share...  Mixx  Stumbled  LinkedIn  Vine  Buzzflash  Reddit  Delicious  Newstrust  Technocrati Share:    More . . . A    A   |    Email Us   |    Print   |    Forward Article Herman Cain’s catchy 9-9-9 tax overhaul system is gathering major supporters as the former pizza magnate consolidates his position at the top of the Republican field in the race for the White House.

House budget committee chairman Rep. Paul Ryan and Ronald Reagan’s economic guru Art Laffer both expressed their support for the plan which would replace the current tax code.

The anti-tax Club for Growth also came out in favor of Cain’s plan which would cut income and corporate taxes to 9 percent and institute a new national sales tax at the same level. Payroll, capital gains and estate taxes would all be eliminated under Cain’s proposals.

Eventually Cain’s plan calls for the complete elimination of income taxes – and the IRS – and the introduction of what he calls the Fair Tax, in which the all Federal revenue would come from a sales tax.

“I love the 9-9-9 plan, it’s a great first step,” Laffer told Fox News’ Bret Baier. “This is a lot better than our current tax laws that are filled with all sorts of ducks, chickens, pigs and turkeys. They’ve just got to be cleaned out and we’ve got to completely revamp the codes.”

Ryan didn’t go quite as far. The Wisconsin congressman did not endorse the plan, but praised it saying he loved “specific and credible” proposals.

Club for Growth president Chris Chocola called the 9-9-9 “an outline for a more prosperous and globally competitive America,” saying it is “both pro-growth and a good starting point on the way to a flat or fair tax.

“Eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends and combining that with huge rate cuts in both corporate and income taxes would create an unparalleled economic boom,” said Chocola. “9-9-9 also eliminates the regulatory and compliance costs from the current tax code that suck billions out of the economy each year.”

Much of the criticism of the plan has been the idea of a new sales tax, which critics fear would be bound to grow. But Chocola dismissed those fears. “Of course a future Congress could raise taxes above the 9 percent levels, but under our current monstrosity of a tax system, Congress already can raise taxes at any time and often has. It is on a path to do so yet again next year with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

“Herman Cain’s proposal might not be the perfect plan, but it is a truly revolutionary tax reform that would amount to a massive job creating tax cut on investments, savings, and income.”

And Chocola issued a challenge to others in the GOP race. “Instead of tearing down ideas that would create economic growth and jobs, the other Republican presidential candidates should produce their own plans to achieve a flatter and more growth-oriented tax code. The American people deserve nothing less.”

Backing for Cain’s plan also came from Kevin Hassett, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute also praised the Cain’s proposal for moving towards a flat tax. “If someone’s going to attack the 9-9-9 plan, I would say they should be careful because you are talking about the Republican holy grail,” he told the Associated Press.

More equivocal support came from Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former director of the Congressional Budget Office who advised John McCain during his presidential run. “I don’t think it’s dramatically out of line with reality,” he told Bloomberg.

And Alan Viard, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, which favors smaller government, said the revenue estimates were “in the ballpark in some vague sense.” But Viard said the rates might need to be a little about 9 percent to generate the same revenues as the the current tax code.

As Cain has risen to the top of the GOP field – he is now running neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney at the top of polls –his plan has come under attack. During Tuesday’s GOP debate former Utah Gov. John Huntsman joked that he thought it was the price of pizza while Spirit Airlines have mocked the scheme by bringing in a 9-9-9 plan for certain fares. Texas Gov.Rick Perry’s wife, Anita, said, “When I hear 9-9-9, I want to call 9-1-1.”

Others have even suggested Cain got the idea from the video game SimCity 4 in which citizens live under a tax code of 9 percent for commercial taxes, 9 percent for industrial taxes and 9 percent for residential taxes.

Cain’s case wasn’t helped when he refused to name his advisors, except for “Rich Lowrie from Cleveland, Ohio,” during the Dartmouth College debate. Investigations soon found that Lowrie is a personal tax consultant for a Wells Fargo bank branch in Pepper Pike, an affluent suburb of Cleveland, who has no training in economics.

Lowrie himself defended the plan on Fox News on Friday, claiming, “The economy will expand by $2 trillion, 6 million jobs are going to be created and the unemployment rate will come back down to a more typical or natural rate of 4 or 4 ½ percent.

“Wages are going to go up by 10 percent, businesses investment will go up by a third,” Lowrie added, saying those figures came from former Treasury Department aide Gary Robbins. In an interview with Politico, although Robbins praised the plan, he added, “There’s nothing wrong with the plan, it just wouldn’t be the one I picked.”

Lowrie said Cain had told his advisers he wanted a “simple, transparent, efficient, fair and neutral,” tax code, adding “I want to tax everything once and nothing twice.”

Fox News contributor Stephen Hayes, of the Weekly Standard, said he couldn’t understand why Cain had not mentioned Laffer’s name at the debate instead of Lowrie’s. Despite that, he said Cain’s plan is resonating with the public.

“The most effective line Cain had in the debate the other night was when he said these politicians are all telling you this can’t be done, well I’m not a politician and that’s why I’m making these arguments,” said Hayes.

“He’s really talking to a huge swath of the Republican primary base and Independent voters as well to say the politicians have handled this for years and years and years and that’s why we are where we are.”

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Cain-999-tax-plan/2011/10/14/id/414487

[Dos Equis]

Summary of primaries someone e-mailed to me.  Interesting to see the movement over the past several months.  


http://americanresearchgroup.com/

October 13, 2011

Florida Republican Presidential Primary

 

Florida
Likely Republican
Primary Voters Oct 2011
  
Bachmann 3%
Cain 34%
Gingrich 11%
Huntsman 1%
Johnson -
Paul 4%
Perry 5%
Roemer 1%
Romney 28%
Santorum 1%
Other -
Undecided 12%

Herman Cain leads the Florida Republican presidential primary with 34%. Cain is followed by Mitt Romney at 28% and Newt Gingrich at 11%.

In July, Rick Perry was leading in Florida with 16%, followed closely by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Romney at 15%, Sarah Palin at 13%, and Cain at 11%.

Cain leads Romney 34% to 28% among registered Republicans likely to vote in the primary, with Gingrich at 11%.

Among Tea Party supporters, Cain leads Romney 43% to 19%, with 12% for Gingrich. Among likely Republican primary voters saying they are not Tea Party supporters or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads Cain 38% to 23%, with 9% for Gingrich.

Among likely voters saying they will definitely vote, Cain leads Romney 36% to 27%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted October 7-12 can be found here.

 


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October 10, 2011

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

 

South Carolina
Likely Republican
Primary Voters Oct 2011
  
Bachmann 5%
Cain 26%
Gingrich 8%
Huntsman -
Johnson -
Paul 7%
Perry 15%
Roemer -
Romney 25%
Santorum 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 12%

Herman Cain leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 26%. Cain is followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

In July, Romney was leading with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 13%, and Herman Cain at 10%.

Among likely primary voters considering themselves to be Republicans, Cain and Romney are tied at 27% each, followed by Perry at 15%.

Among Tea Party supporters, Cain leads with 35%, followed by Perry at 16% and Romney at 15%.

Among those saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 33%, followed by Cain at 19%, Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 10%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted October 5-10 can be found here.

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

September 30, 2011

Lynch and Obama Job Approval in New Hampshire

Lynch Job Approval Ratings
9/29/2011 Approve Disapprove Undecided
 
Overall 56% 23% 21%
Economy 55% 27% 18%

Has John Lynch received the highest quarterly job approval rating since the New Hampshire Poll began in 1976? No.

The highest quarterly job approval rating, 77%, goes to Jeanne Shaheen in March 1998. She is followed closely by Steve Merrill in June 1993 with an approval rating of 76%, and John Sununu in June 1983 with an approval rating of 71%. Lynch's highest approval rating to date was 68% in September 2006. Lynch's quarterly average is 52% approve compared to Shaheen's average of 53% approve while she was governor.

 


Obama Job Approval Ratings in NH
9/29/2011 Approve Disapprove Undecided
 
Overall 31% 59% 10%
Economy 27% 65% 8%

A total of 51% of New Hampshire residents say they are financially worse off compared to a year ago, 37% say they are the same, and 12% say they are better off. Of the 31% saying they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, 29% say they are better off, 50% say they are the same, and 21% say they are worse off. Of the 59% saying they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, 6% say they are financially better off, 29% say they are the same, and 65% say they are worse off compared to a year ago.

Results from the September 2011 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, John Lynch, and Barack Obama.

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

September 28, 2011

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

 

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers Sep 2011
  
Bachmann 15%
Cain 6%
Gingrich 8%
Huntsman 1%
Johnson -
Palin 4%
Paul 12%
Perry 14%
Roemer 1%
Romney 21%
Santorum 2%
Other 1%
Undecided 15%

Mitt Romney leads among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers with 21%. Romney is followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%.

In early July, Bachmann was leading with 21%, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 14%, Sarah Palin at 11%, and Perry at 2%.

Among Tea Party supporters, Bachmann leads with 19% (down from 30% in July), Perry is at 14% (up from 3% in July), Gingrich and Paul are at 13% each, Herman Cain is at 10%, and Romney is at 6%.

Among those saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 37% (up from 31% in July), followed by Perry at 15%, Paul at 11%, and Bachmann at 10%.

Among those saying they will definitely attend the Republican caucus, Romney leads with 19% (up from 17% in July), followed by Bachmann and Perry at 15% each, and Paul at 14%. In July, 25% of definite Republican caucus-goers said Bachmann and 2% said Perry.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers conducted September 22-27 can be found here.

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

September 22, 2011

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

 

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters Sep 2011
  
Bachmann 7%
Cain 4%
Gingrich 4%
Huntsman 10%
Johnson -
Palin 4%
Paul 12%
Perry 13%
Roemer 1%
Romney 30%
Santorum 2%
Other 1%
Undecided 12%

Mitt Romney continues to lead the New Hampshire Republican presidential preference primary. Romney, at 30% among likely Republican primary voters, is followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 12%, and Jon Huntsman at 10%.

Preference for Romney is virtually unchanged since a similar survey in July, but Perry is up 11 percentage points, Huntsman is up 10 percentage points, and Paul is up 8 percentage points from the July survey. Bachmann has lost 5 percentage points since the July survey.

Romney leads among registered Republicans likely to vote in the presidential primary with 35%, followed by Perry at 13% and Paul at 10%. Among undeclared voters (independents), Romney leads with 19%, followed by Huntsman at 17%, Paul at 15%, and Perry at 14%.

Perry leads among Tea Party supporters with 23%, followed by Romney at 21%, and Paul at 10%. Among likely Republican primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 38%, followed by Huntsman at 19%, and Paul at 13%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted September 16-21 can be found here.

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

September 21, 2011

Obama Job Approval Ratings  
9/20/11 Approve Disapprove Undecided
 
Overall 41% 56% 3%
Economy 37% 60% 3%

A total of 41% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 56% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In August, 41% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 53% disapproved. When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 37% of Americans approve and 60% disapprove. In August, 40% approved and 55% disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy.

Among Americans registered to vote, 40% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 57% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 36% of registered voters approve and 60% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted September 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 

[Dos Equis]

He should quit.  He has put  $2.25 million of his own money into this campaign??   

Huntsman campaign nearly broke as GOP campaign heats up
Posted by
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby

(CNN) - Jon Huntsman's presidential campaign is verging on broke after burning through more than $4 million since the former Utah governor entered the race for the Republican nomination in June.

The Huntsman campaign, which re-trenched last month by laying off staff and moving its national quarters to the must-win primary state of New Hampshire, finished the third fundraising quarter in September with just $327,000 in the bank and $890,000 in debt.

Since joining the race on June 21, Huntsman raised $2.26 million and contributed $2.25 million of his own money to the campaign for a total $4.51 million.

But a campaign official told CNN Friday that they have spent $4.18 million, leaving Huntsman with a paltry war chest as the GOP nomination fights heats up.

By contrast, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney each have roughly $15 million in the bank.

Fundraising reports are due with the Federal Election Commission on Saturday, and the numbers will provide the first official glimpse into the Huntsman books.

Huntsman announced his campaign before the second quarter fundraising deadline on June 30, but federal election regulations did not require him to file a report because he joined the race just days before the deadline.

A source close to the campaign said in an email that "after a fast start fundraising, the projections were far too high. Fundraising dried up in the summer and that accounts for the campaign reining in spending."

But there are encouraging signs for Huntsman supporters.

After a rocky summer that saw the departures of a handful of senior campaign advisers, the operation has slimmed down and reduced spending by half since June.

And after an uptick in the polls in New Hampshire –Huntsman's beachhead in the GOP race– the campaign says they have seen a 240% increase in fundraising since late September.

"Since the end of the third quarter, Gov. Huntsman has unveiled a bold foreign policy plan, performed strongly in the debates and seen positive momentum in every New Hampshire poll," Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller told CNN. "Our campaign has re-organized to become more nimble with a focus on success in New Hampshire and our fundraising this first two weeks of this quarter has reflected that."

Huntsman remains mired between one and three percent in national polls, but his numbers are creeping up in New Hampshire.

Huntsman backers are hoping that television ads will help boost the campaign's profile both nationally and in the Granite State, the underwhelming fundraising numbers suggest the campaign far from prepared to buy any airtime.

That leaves the task of going on television to "Our Destiny PAC," a SuperPAC formed by Huntsman supporters to raise and spend unlimited funds on behalf of the candidate.

A source close to the SuperPAC had better news than the campaign, telling CNN that their fundraising total is "good" and that many of the Huntsman campaign donors have moved to the SuperPAC.

As for when the SuperPAC might actually go on television, the source called that "a tightly held" strategy.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/14/huntsman-campaign-nearly-broke-as-gop-campaign-heats-up/

[Dos Equis]

Got to watch all of last night's debate on CNN.  Some observations:

- Perry was horrible.  He does not handle confrontation well.  I think he's smart and knows how to govern, but his inability to answer questions, or even properly attack another candidate, is pretty alarming.  He could still be the nominee, but Republicans should be very concerned about whether he is ready for prime time.  He'll look like a much better candidate when all he has to do is make campaign speeches.  Same as Obama.    

- Romney did a good job again.  It's pretty obvious he has been running for president for a very long time.  

- Bachmann did ok, but I thought she was an attack dog a bit too much.  Obama sucks, but it seemed like every one of her comments attacked Obama.  Got a little old.

- Santorum shouldn't be invited to anymore debates.  He's not polling well.  He's not going to win.  He's sort of a distraction at this point.  (Same with Huntsman.)    

- Paul was ok.  His foreign policy views really hurt him.  

- Newt still comes across as the most qualified man on the stage.  Too bad he screwed himself.  He would be a good president IMO.

- Cain did a good job overall.  His comments about releasing terrorists were pretty bad, but at least he acknowledged he made a mistake.  One of the critical differences between a good leader and poor leader is an ability to recognize and acknowledge mistakes.  Huge difference between Obama and Cain in that regard.  I love the fact he has 42 years of experience in business.    

As of today, I think this is a three-horse race between Romney, Perry, and Cain.  

[240 is Back]

I hate to say it, but I agree with BB on just about everything.

I do think that at this point in time - Ron Paul has a greater chance of being president - than Rick Perry does.

RPaul is still on his slow positive slope.  Perry is plummeting.

Cain has no $, no organization - It's going to be Romney, hands down.  There will be more GOTV for Cain in all those states where he's leading Romney by a little... the $ that Romney will be handing out in the hundreds to workers to drive people to vote romney.


In 94% of races, the man with more money wins.  Romney looks good.

[chadstallion]

Got to watch all of last night's debate on CNN.  Some observations:

- Perry was horrible.  He does not handle confrontation well.  I think he's smart and knows how to govern, but his inability to answer questions, or even properly attack another candidate, is pretty alarming.  He could still be the nominee, but Republicans should be very concerned about whether he is ready for prime time.  He'll look like a much better candidate when all he has to do is make campaign speeches.  Same as Obama.    

- Romney did a good job again.  It's pretty obvious he has been running for president for a very long time.  

- Bachmann did ok, but I thought she was an attack dog a bit too much.  Obama sucks, but it seemed like every one of her comments attacked Obama.  Got a little old.

- Santorum shouldn't be invited to anymore debates.  He's not polling well.  He's not going to win.  He's sort of a distraction at this point.  (Same with Huntsman.)    

- Paul was ok.  His foreign policy views really hurt him.  

- Newt still comes across as the most qualified man on the stage.  Too bad he screwed himself.  He would be a good president IMO.

- Cain did a good job overall.  His comments about releasing terrorists were pretty bad, but at least he acknowledged he made a mistake.  One of the critical differences between a good leader and poor leader is an ability to recognize and acknowledge mistakes.  Huge difference between Obama and Cain in that regard.  I love the fact he has 42 years of experience in business.    

As of today, I think this is a three-horse race between Romney, Perry, and Cain.  

it's not so much that Newt screwed himself...as it was all his ex wives...

[240 is Back]

it's not so much that Newt screwed himself...as it was all his ex wives...

i forgot about that - newt was ejeculating inside new women while married to old ones.

A real moral stalwart.

[Dos Equis]

it's not so much that Newt screwed himself...as it was all his ex wives...

Nah.  It was the hypocrisy surrounding Clinton.  At least that's my main problem with him. 

[chadstallion]

finally a reason to vote for Herb Cain.

he is pro choice..at least within the last 24 hours. by now I'm sure he has changed his mind.

[Dos Equis]

True.

Romney: ‘There’s a good shot I might become the next president’
Posted by
CNN Political Reporter Shannon Travis
Treynor, Iowa (CNN) – Mitt Romney on Thursday said he has a "good shot" at becoming president.

At an economic roundtable of business leaders in Treynor, Iowa, the candidate began the question-and-answer session by saying: “Your topics are at your choosing. But there’s a good shot I might become the next president of the United States. It’s not a sure thing, but it’s a good shot.”

. . . .


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/20/romney-%e2%80%98there%e2%80%99s-a-good-shot-i-might-become-the-next-president%e2%80%99/

[240 is Back]

finally a reason to vote for Herb Cain.

he is pro choice..at least within the last 24 hours. by now I'm sure he has changed his mind.

he did change his mind.  he regurgitated the standard GOP line.
it's funny - the top 3 Repubs have all held pro-choice positions.

[Dos Equis]

I don't think 6 percent is a "blowout," but I like the fact they polled "registered voters likely to vote in the 2012 general election."  More reliable sample IMO.

Romney Wins in 'Blowout' Over Obama in 2012, Poll Shows
Friday, 21 Oct 2011 12:17 PM
By Jim Meyers

A new poll using a more up-to-date voter turnout model than most other surveys shows that President Obama’s lead over his potential Republican adversaries is much smaller than believed — and the race is “eminently winnable” by the GOP candidate.

In fact, the poll conducted for Newsmax by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research, taking into consideration current voter demographics, finds that Mitt Romney would defeat Obama in a “blowout,” according to pollster Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage.

Polls today generally are using the 2008 turnout model, with a pool of respondents similar to the last presidential election’s voting pool in terms of age, race, gender, and party affiliation.

The survey of more than 1,350 registered voters likely to vote in the 2012 general election, using data from extensive outside polling, more closely reflects today’s turnout model, which differs significantly from the 2008 model and thus is likely to more accurately reflect the true voting preferences of today’s electorate.

“This is a really exciting poll,” Towery declared.

“The model that we created is very reflective of where voters are right now, not in 2008.”

Insider/Advantage first conducted a poll using the scenario that turnout will be exactly as it was in 2008, then weighted the respondent pool as if younger voters, ages 18 to 29, cast their ballots in significantly lower numbers than they did in 2008.

Many pollsters and political analysts predict a much lower turnout by younger voters in 2012, citing their disillusionment with Obama.

The result: Obama gets 47 percent of the vote to 35 percent for Rick Perry if the turnout matches 2008, but drops to 46 percent against Perry’s 36 percent if younger voter turnout is lower in 2012.

Obama’s margin of victory is reduced by one percentage point in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, Herman Cain, or Newt Gingrich when the fewer young voters scenario is compared to the 2008 model, and remains the same against Ron Paul.

The age factor, then, does not immediately appear to be significant, Towery acknowledges, “but every percentage point is important in a race as close as the 2012 race is expected to be.”

Much more significant differences appear when the pollster considered a third scenario: If Republican voter turnout is significantly higher than it was in 2008.

 
In this scenario, Obama’s lead over Cain drops from 8 percentage points in the 2008 turnout to just 2 percentage points (42 percent to 40 percent, with 18 percent undecided); his lead over Gingrich is sliced from 14 points to 8 points; his margin over Paul goes from 11 points to 6 points; against Perry, from 12 points to 6 points; and Mitt Romney actually defeats Obama, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

Higher Republican turnout is indeed likely in 2012, according to recent polls showing that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than are Democrats. And, Towery said, “Obama has lost a portion of his Democratic base and they will now vote Republican. We see an erosion of the Democratic Party in this country, in particular among white traditional Democratic voters in swing states like North Carolina and Florida.”

Presidential elections are “won state by state,” Towery added, “and the numbers tell me that Obama is facing a difficult time in swing states.”

The Newsmax poll also examined a fourth scenario: Younger voter turnout is significantly lower AND Republican voter turnout is significantly higher than in 2008 — two likely eventualities.

Then Obama’s vulnerability becomes starkly obvious.

In this scenario, Romney clobbers Obama by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent — a “blowout,” Towery states.

Cain ties Obama at 41 percent, with 18 percent undecided — and voters undecided at this point in the election cycle are more than likely to turn away from the incumbent, or not to cast a ballot for any candidate, Towery observed.

Obama still holds a 43 percent to 38 percent edge over Perry, but again, 19 percent of respondents remain undecided and could tip the balance toward Perry. The same is the case for Gingrich, who trails Obama 37 percent to 43 percent, and Paul, who trails 37 percent to 41 percent.

The bottom line, according to Towery: “When the Republican nominee is chosen, he will certainly start out with a much firmer foundation than McCain did in 2008.

“No matter who the Republican nominee is, he can be expected to do as well as Cain does [in the fourth scenario], at worst, and the same as Romney, at best.

“This race is much closer than people realize, and is eminently winnable by the Republican.”

“Obama’s big lead simply does not exist.”


http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Romney-defeats-obama-poll/2011/10/21/id/415329

[240 is Back]

I don't think 6 percent is a "blowout,"

Sure felt like one to mccain.

6 points nationally = your ass loses by 100 or more electoral votes.

[Dos Equis]

Roger Stone: Romney is a ‘Weak Front-Runner’
Monday, 24 Oct 2011

Veteran political strategist Roger Stone says Mitt Romney is a weak front-runner in the Republican presidential race and his nomination could cost the GOP support from the tea party movement.

“Romney’s refusal to reach out to tea parties in an effort to preserve his more moderate persona for the general election could still cost him the nomination,” Stone observes on his StoneZone.com website.

Romney is not winning more than 30 percent of the Republican vote anywhere outside New Hampshire, Stone adds, “making him a weak front-runner.

Romney has been hurt by a video showing him as a Senate candidate attacking Ronald Reagan and expressing support for abortion and affirmative action, Stone noted. Also, Romney supported a Massachusetts liberal Democrat, Paul Tsongas, over President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

“If Romney is nominated, any increased acceptability to moderates would be more than offset with a lack of enthusiasm and absent votes from the tea parties and the conservative right,” Stone writes.

The longtime Republican consultant surveyed the rest of the GOP presidential field:

Rick Perry has $55 million in his Super Pac and will have $20 million in his campaign to spend and “exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He must also hope for the decline of Herman Cain.”
 
Michele Bachmann is now “quietly colluding” with Romney to prevent a Perry win in Iowa. But her strategy of attacking Perry instead of Romney “has to be the most bone-headed piece of strategic thinking I have ever encountered. The way to win the hearts of conservatives is to demonstrate you are the strongest candidate to take on the national Republican establishment candidate Mitt Romney.”

Herman Cain has “deftly grabbed the outsider mantle and tea party enthusiasm.” His campaign is headed by Mark Block, who worked with Stone at the Committee to Re-elect the President in 1972 and who “knows he must translate Cain’s surge into votes at the caucus and on primary night.”
 
Newt Gingrich has helped the party focus on the need for unity to defeat President Obama. “He continues to look like the adult in the race and yet has little chance to be nominated.”
 
Ron Paul’s fervent following siphons off conservative votes Perry and Bachmann need. Stone suggests that the other GOP candidates should insist on allowing former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson into the debates to dilute Paul’s support. If Johnson is denied access to the debates, Stone adds, he could seek the Libertarian Party nomination for president.

Jon Huntsman’s campaign is $1 million in the red. But his father, Jon Huntsman Sr., is “no political neophyte” and was a fund-raiser for Richard Nixon’s 1968 comeback drive for the White House, as well as Special Assistant to President Nixon. “It is a mystery how Huntsman Sr. can continue to allow the mis-positioning of his son as a ‘moderate,’” Stone says, “destroying any short or long-term possibility he has of being nominated for president in the Republican Party.”

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Stone-Romney-weak-frontrunner/2011/10/24/id/415555

[240 is Back]

romney will feed $ and men to keep cain viable, and keep perry spllit on the tea party vote.

he's got this.  you're hearing it more and more.  "Rally around..."  I heard that shit on fox last night and realized, it's over.  they're gonna rally around romney early so he's got the most money and least scars for facing obama. 

[MM2K]

romney will feed $ and men to keep cain viable, and keep perry spllit on the tea party vote.

he's got this.  you're hearing it more and more.  "Rally around..."  I heard that shit on fox last night and realized, it's over.  they're gonna rally around romney early so he's got the most money and least scars for facing obama. 

240 is right on this one. If Romney wins Iowa its over. There just isnt a strong conservative candidate to take on Romney. This Republican Primary is starting to look a lot like the Democrat Primary of 1992. Back then, you had moderate Bill Clinton winning because there were no strong liberal candidates to take him on.

[240 is Back]

Note at :40.... cigarette...

This ad comes out the same day the news that he worked as a lobbyist for years-
And took a shitload of $ from RJ Reynolds tobacco...
and Cain actually beat stage 4 cancer....

Hermann Cain wants to be President... true getbigger.

[Soul Crusher]

This ad is already gone viral.   John Batchelor talking about it now. 

[240 is Back]

This ad is already gone viral.   John Batchelor talking about it now.  

its hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nothing says determination like sucking down a cigarette, closeup, with that obnoxious rock music.

they knew what audience they're appealing to there.  toothless, angry tobaccy abusing dbag.

DU:  "I think voting for Herman Cain will be as good for my future as smoking cigarettes!"

[Dos Equis]

240 is right on this one. If Romney wins Iowa its over. There just isnt a strong conservative candidate to take on Romney. This Republican Primary is starting to look a lot like the Democrat Primary of 1992. Back then, you had moderate Bill Clinton winning because there were no strong liberal candidates to take him on.

Not necessarily.  Romney's biggest challenge will be the South where he'll have competition from Perry and Cain. 

[Soul Crusher]

its hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nothing says determination like sucking down a cigarette, closeup, with that obnoxious rock music.

they knew what audience they're appealing to there.  toothless, angry tobaccy abusing dbag.

DU:  "I think voting for Herman Cain will be as good for my future as smoking cigarettes!"

It is bad ass and will set the far left on fire. 

[240 is Back]

Not necessarily.  Romney's biggest challenge will be the South where he'll have competition from Perry and Cain. 

South carolina  -  Romney wins that and it's OVER>

He's tied with Cain at 26/25%.... and perry has 9%. 

Romney has money and organization.  The others can't come close.  Romney is now putting energy into Iowa, since his "THIRTY???" point lead in New hampshire and sununu endorsement makes it a foregone conclusion...


People don't have faith in cain or perry.  Even most getbiggers don't think they'll win it.  money and support will dry up very quickly.  It's romneys.

[The True Adonis]

A lot of Tobacco farmers here in NC have been getting the shaft for years and have been encouraged to plant alternate crops.  Its put many a farmer out of work.