Twelve for '12: A Dozen Republicans Who Could Be the Next President

[Dos Equis]

Some observations on Iowa:

- Romney's win, though not a predictor, is impressive for him given the fact he only spent 18 days in Iowa and Iowa is full of social conservatives who don't really trust him.

- Iowa dodged a bullet by the slimmest of margins.  Santorum (or Paul) winning would have effectively doomed their chances of holding the first caucus next cycle.  I don't think Santorum has a snowball's chance.  What his placing shows is grassroots campaigning is still effective.  He went to every county. 

- Paul had a respectable showing.  He is actually better off not winning Iowa when you look at Iowa's history of predicting the nominee.  Still, it's all down hill (numbers wise) for him.  He's not going to win NH, or SC, or FL, and those three states will probably decide the nominee. 

- Newt is still in this.  If he wins SC he could also win FL.

- Perry was probably going to quit if Bachmann hadn't dropped out.  I doubt he will be the nominee, but he's not entirely out of it yet. 

- Bachmann did the right thing by dropping out.  If she couldn't get any traction in her own backyard, she has no business being in the race.  Too bad, because I really like her.

- Huntsman is a fool for skipping Iowa.  He should quit. 

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Romney remains way ahead in New Hampshire
Posted by
CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser

Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) - Five days before the Granite State's first-in-the-nation primary, a new survey indicates that Mitt Romney remains the overwhelming front-runner.

According to a Suffolk University/7 News two day tracking poll, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts has the support of 48% of likely Republican New Hampshire primary voters. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is a distant second, at 18%.

- Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

The survey, released Thursday morning, was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, meaning that about half of the people were questioned after Tuesday night's Iowa caucuses, where Romney edged out former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania by 8 votes to won the contest.

The poll indicates that Santorum is at 8%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 7%. According to the survey, a rather large 17% are undecided.

Romney has been the frontrunner in New Hampshire polling for over two years. He is well know in the Granite State, thanks to his years as Massachusetts governor (most of the more populated southern part of the state is in the Boston media market). Romney also owns a vacation home in New Hampshire, and besides spending lots of time in the state campaigning for the White House over the last year and in the past presidential cycle, he's also made many stops in the state stumping for fellow Republican candidates.

The Suffolk University/7 News poll was conducted by telephone, with 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters questioned. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 4.4% points.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/05/poll-romney-remains-way-ahead-in-new-hampshire/

[Dos Equis]

Sounds similar to what Huck did in 08 in Iowa and SC.

Rasmussen: Santorum Surges to 2nd in SC
Friday, 06 Jan 2012

Rick Santorum's surge continues, even in the up-for-grabs  primary state of South Carolina where he is now in second place behind front-runner Mitt Romney, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is still in the lead, earning 27 percent support from likely GOP primary voters, up from 23 percent in early November. Santorum is at a close 24 percent of the vote. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in third with 18 percent of the vote, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 11 percent.

Bringing up the rear are Texas Governor Rick Perry with five percent  percent and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman at 2 percent. Some 11 remain undecided.

In the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race in November, Georgia businessman Herman Cain came in first with 33 percent support, followed by Romney and Gingrich. Cain has since dropped out of the race.

The latest findings from South Carolina parallel the voting sentiments of Republicans nationally following the Iowa caucuses, with Romney out front with 29 percent support. Santorum, after his photo-finish with Romney in Tuesday’s caucuses, runs second at 21 percent, with Gingrich in third with 16 percent of the vote.

The January 21 primary in South Carolina is especially critical for Santorum who has largely written off next Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary and is counting on the conservative, evangelical vote in the southern state to build the momentum for his candidacy.

Things remain fluid in South Carolina, however, with nearly half the state’s primary voters 48 percent saying they still could change their minds. Just 41 percent are certain already of how they will vote. Those certain of their vote include 62 percent of Paul’s supporters, 51 percent of Perry’s backers, 50 percent of Romney voters. Just 43 percent of Santorum voters and 36 percent of Gingrich supporters are locked in at this point.

In 2008, during the final week leading up to the South Carolina primary, voters for less successful candidates peeled away from their first choice to vote for one of the two front-runners. In that race, it was the eventual nominee John McCain and the second place finisher Mike Huckabee.

It’s important to note, too, that 66% of all likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, regardless of whom they want to win, think Romney will ultimately win the party’s presidential nomination.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/santorum-romney-poll-second/2012/01/06/id/423288

[Dos Equis]

Will be interesting to see if this changes after the weekend debates. 

GOP rivals gear up for weekend debates
By David Ariosto, CNN
updated 4:01 PM EST, Sat January 7, 2012

(CNN) -- As the field of GOP nominees for president narrows, the remaining crop of those seeking to replace Barack Obama geared up Saturday for a pair of pivotal weekend debates in New Hampshire, just days ahead of the nation's first primary.

Front-runner Mitt Romney, who eked out a narrow eight-vote victory ahead of former Sen. Rick Santorum in the Iowa caucus, has since surged past his competition in the Granite State.
A NBC News/Marist poll has the former Massachusetts governor commanding a robust lead with 42% of the vote.

Rep. Ron Paul, an outspoken libertarian from Texas, is a distant second, tallying about 22%, according to the Saturday poll.

"Mitt Romney's the overwhelming front-runner here in New Hampshire, so of course expect him to have a bull's eye on his back," said CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser. "The two-time presidential candidate is used to being on the receiving end of attacks from his GOP rivals. But this will be the first debate where Rick Santorum isn't an afterthought standing at the far edge of the stage."

The former Pennsylvania senator has enjoyed a recent surge in campaign funding following his strong showing in Iowa and has benefited from a bump in New Hampshire support.

Still, he trails in the third spot.

Santorum's recent rise will likely force Romney to share some of the spotlight as single-digit candidates like Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who once led in the polls, take aim in a much-anticipated sparring match Saturday.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, has watched his numbers decline since late December and will be counting on a break-out performance to stay relevant as the Republican field begins to take shape.

Ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has also staked out his claim in New Hampshire. But despite devoting the bulk of his campaign resources there, he continues to hover around 9%.

Tuesday's primary is widely thought to be a make-or-break moment for Huntsman, a former ambassador to China, who is counting on a strong showing to continue campaigning nationally.

Just 10 hours will separate the two debates this weekend; a one-two punch that will afford voters their last chances to weigh their choices ahead of decision day next week.

ABC News is scheduled to broadcast Saturday's event -- the first debate after more than three weeks of campaigning -- from Saint Anselm College at 9 p.m. ET.

Sunday's debate is set for 9 a.m. ET and is co-sponsored by NBC's Meet the Press and Facebook.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/07/politics/new-hampshire-debates/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[Dos Equis]

January 7, 2012, 1:53 PM
Romney Showcases Endorsement by Ex-Ambassadors to Vatican
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Five former ambassadors to the Vatican endorsed Mitt Romney on Saturday, choosing a Mormon over two Roman Catholic rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

In a statement showcased by Mr. Romney’s campaign, the ambassadors said they “are united in our wholehearted support for the candidacy of Mitt
Romney for the Presidency of the United States because of his commitment to and support of the values that we feel are critical in a national leader.”

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are both Catholics and often talk about their religion and values on the campaign trail.

The endorsements could also help blunt any under-the-radar attacks by religious conservatives who oppose Mr. Romney because of his religion. Last year, some evangelical leaders called Mormonism a cult.

That might be especially helpful to Mr. Romney in South Carolina, even though it has only a small number of Catholics. Religious conservatives there have traditionally played a large role in the primary where tough, negative campaigning is the norm.

In the statement, the ambassadors cited what they said was Mr. Romney’s commitment to “traditional values” and said that because of his “outstanding record in defense of marriage and the family, we are confident that he understands the importance of strong families as pillars of a vibrant economy and a flourishing polity.”

According to the statement, the ambassadors are:

Thomas Patrick Melady (U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See 1989-1993)
Raymond L. Flynn (U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See 1993-1997)
James Nicholson (U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See 2001-2005)
Francis Rooney (U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See 2005-2008)
Mary Ann Glendon (U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See 2008-2009)

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/holy-see-ambassadors-endorse-romney/?partner=rss&emc=rss

[Soul Crusher]

Romney opening up very strong tonight. 

[Soul Crusher]

Romney and Huntsman are both looking good tonight.   

[Dos Equis]

Some comments on the NH debate:

Perry improved a lot again . . . until his comments about Iraq.  I agree Obama's Iraq decisions were politically motivated and he's a terrible CIC, but saying you'll send troops back into Iraq?  That was one of the dumbest things he has said in these debates. 

Santorum did a decent job.  He handles the issues well.  I still don't think he has any shot to get the nomination. 

Ron Paul was pretty average overall.  He was called out for calling Santorum corrupt.  Did not handle that issue well.  He didn't answer the question about the newsletters and went off on some tangent about minorities and drugs.  Really incoherent.  His attacks on Newt based on his lack of military service were pretty Bush League IMO.  He doesn't do dirty politics very well.   

Romney was solid as usual.  Great answer regarding contraception.  Knocked that out of the park.  Friggin stupid question.  Overall he still presents himself as someone who will do a great job against Obama.   

Newt was very good again.  Fortunately for him, they didn't ask about Freddic Mac/Fannie Mae.  Great answer on the homosexual marriage issue, denial of benefits, etc.  Showed great composure.   

Huntsman was good.  He brings a lot to the table.  Was not impressed with him speaking Chinese.  That was one of those "I'm smarter than you" moments.  Fail.   

[Dos Equis]

If he wins those three it's over. 

Polls: Romney Maintains Leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida
Monday, 09 Jan 2012

Mitt Romney has a 12-point lead over closest rival Newt Gingrich in Florida three weeks before the state's Republican presidential primary, but more than half of likely voters still might change their minds, according to a poll released on Monday.

The poll came as all signs point to a Romney victory in New Hampshire, where the candidate holds about a 15-point lead over his closest rival, Rep. Ron Paul.

And in South Carolina, where conservatives Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry are looking to tap into a strongly conservative, evangelical base, the former Massachusetts governor is 10 points ahead of his closest rival, Santorum. Romney has 31 percent of likely voters, compared with  Santorum's 20 percent, according to RealClearPolitics' average of leading polls.

There are signs, though, that Romney's once-formidable lead appears to be slipping a bit in New Hampshire. In the latest release of the 7 News/Suffolk University tracking poll of likely voters, 33 percent said they planned to vote for or leaned toward Romney. In the previous poll, released Wednesday, Romney was the choice of 43 percent, and his support has been decreasing steadily since then.

In South Carolina, a splintered conservative base is dividing its support among several of Romney's rivals going into the Jan. 21 contest. The former venture capitalist's business savvy is resonating so far with voters in a state with almost 10 percent unemployment, according to recent public polls, internal campaign polling, and Associated Press interviews with South Carolina GOP operatives.

A victory Tuesday in New Hampshire would mean that Romney heads into the first Southern contest with momentum from back-to-back successes in the Midwest and Northeast. But the race is certain to get nasty, quickly, in a state known for brass-knuckled politics.

"Everyone is going to throw everything they've got at him," said Romney's senior South Carolina adviser, Warren Tompkins. "Because South Carolina is Armageddon for the rest of them."

South Carolina may offer the last chance for a single conservative challenger to Romney to emerge. Also, independent groups, or super political action committees, that are aligned with his rivals and can raise unlimited money probably will be active. The goal is to derail Romney before the make-or-break Florida primary Jan. 31.

The Quinnipiac University poll of Floridians released Monday showed Romney with 36 percent, former House Speaker Gingrich with 24 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent. Paul had 10 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry had 5 percent, and former U.S. Ambassador to China John Huntsman had 2 percent.

But 54 percent of respondents said they might change their minds before Florida convenes its Republican presidential primary election on Jan. 31. Results from New Hampshire, which votes on Tuesday, and South Carolina, which votes on Jan. 21, could shake thing up in Florida, the Quinnipiac pollsters cautioned.

"With more than half of voters saying they might change their minds and more than 50 percent of them backing candidates perceived as more conservative, Romney could be vulnerable if those voters settle on one candidate," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Romney is the best-liked candidate among Florida likely Republican voters, with a 73-14 percent favorability rating.

Among Florida respondents who described themselves as tea party members, Romney and Gingrich tied with 32 percent each, followed by Santorum with 19 percent, Paul with 7 percent and Perry with 4 percent.

The race is closer among white evangelical Christians. Romney gets 28 percent to Gingrich's 26 percent, with 20 percent for Santorum, the poll showed.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/romney-gingrich-santorum-florida/2012/01/09/id/423492

[Dos Equis]

RCP average as of today:

Romney - 26%
Santorum - 17% 
Gingrich - 16%
Paul - 11.7%
Perry - 5.3%
Huntsman - 3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

[Dos Equis]

Rasmussen Poll: Romney Is Only Republican Who Can Beat Obama
Monday, 09 Jan 2012
By Newsmax Wires

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the only Republican presidential contenders most voters view as having a chance to defeat President Barack Obama.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey released today found that 53 percent of likely U.S. voters believe that Romney is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November, while 38 percent say that is unlikely.

Broken down, the findings of the Jan. 5-6 survey of 1,000 likely voters show that 26 percent say Romney is very likely to win, vs. just 11 percent who say he is not at all likely to defeat Obama.

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, who has moved into second place among Republican voters nationally, Rasmussen notes, now also is viewed by all voters nationwide as the second-strongest potential challenger to Obama. Just over 40 percent think Santorum is at least somewhat likely to defeat the president, but 50 percent say that’s unlikely. This includes 14 percent who see a Santorum win as very likely, compared with 23 percent who say that is not at all likely to occur, the survey found.

Meanwhile, 34 percent of voters feel that Republicans’ current third-place choice, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, is likely to beat the president, with 13 percent who feel it is very likely. But 60 percent say a Gingrich victory is unlikely, including 29 percent who think it’s not at all likely, according to the Rasmussen poll.

Even more voters see a win by Texas Rep. Ron Paul or former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman as unlikely.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Rasmussen-Romney-Obama-Republican/2012/01/09/id/423497

[MM2K]

The candidates are really destroying themselves with these attacks on Romney's Bain Capital past. Its backfiring on them in a big way. I think they probably thought to themselves that since Romney got away with some cinical attacks on Perry's conservative Social Security stance, then they could get away with cynical attacks on Romney's conservative position of "Creative Destruction" in capitalism.

[Soul Crusher]

The candidates are really destroying themselves with these attacks on Romney's Bain Capital past. Its backfiring on them in a big way. I think they probably thought to themselves that since Romney got away with some cinical attacks on Perry's conservative Social Security stance, then they could get away with cynical attacks on Romney's conservative position of "Creative Destruction" in capitalism.

Newt and Perry were jerkoffs for what they did. 

[Dos Equis]

After Romney's 16 point win in NH, here is how things currently stand in SC:

Romney - 31.3%
Santorum - 20.7%
Gingrich - 19.7%
Paul - 10.7%
Perry - 5.0%
Huntsman - 2.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

[Dos Equis]

Someone interesting things from the NH exit polls.  Shows that Huntsman and Paul performed so well in part because Democrats and those who like Obama voted for them.  Neither one had a lot of Republican support.  For example, here is the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who supported the top three:

Huntsman:  Democrats 40%, Republicans 10%, Independents 22%
Paul:  Democrats 25%, Republicans 15%, Independents 31%
Romney:  Democrats 14%, Republicans 49%, Independents 30%

This one aspect is pretty telling.  Of those who are satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry with Obama, here is how they voted:

Satisfied with Obama:  Huntsman 40%, Paul 32%, Romney 21%
Dissatisfied with Obama:  Huntsman 16%, Paul 23%, Romney 44%
Angry with Obama:  Huntsman 7%, Paul 18%, Romney 46%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh

There is a lot more, but pretty interesting stuff.  If you look at the trends they show neither Huntsman nor Paul will likely repeat their NH performance in states like SC and FL. 

[Dos Equis]

John Bolton endorses Romney
Posted by CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn

(CNN) – John Bolton, the former U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations, endorsed presidential candidate Mitt Romney Wednesday.

Bolton made the endorsement on Fox News Channel, where he is a paid contributor.

“I followed the way that the William F. Buckley, Jr. test: find the most conservative candidate capable of getting elected, and there are obviously two variables there,” Bolton said on Fox News’ “On the Record w/ Greta Van Susteren.”

“In the words of the old song ‘Give Me That Old Time Religion,’ Romney is conservative enough and I think that’s critical.”

Bolton served in the administrations of former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush before former President George W. Bush appointed him the U.N. role.

Bolton endorsed Sen. John McCain's presidential bid in February 2008, and briefly flirted with a presidential run for himself in 2011.

Bolton's endorsement of Romney was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/11/john-bolton-to-endorse-romney/

[Dos Equis]

Romney back on top in new CNN national poll
Posted by
CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) - It's amazing what back to back wins can do for your poll numbers.

One-time Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney is back on top in the race for the GOP nomination, according to a new national survey.

See full results (pdf)

- Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

A CNN/ORC International poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday after the New Hampshire primary, also indicates that the former Massachusetts governor's support nearly doubles in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups against his strongest rivals.

According to the survey, 34% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they're likely to support the former Massachusetts governor for the nomination, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18%, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania each at 15%. Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands at 9% in the poll, with former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 4%.

Romney and Gingrich were tied at 28% support in CNN's last national survey, which was conducted in mid-December, before Romney's narrow victory in last week's Iowa caucuses and his big win Tuesday night in the New Hampshire primary. Romney became the first non-incumbent to win Iowa and New Hampshire back to back.

Gingrich finished out of the money in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney edged up six points while Gingrich dropped ten points since the last poll. Paul, who came in third in Iowa and a strong second in New Hampshire, has inched up a point, while Santorum, who lost to Romney by just eight votes in Iowa before coming in fifth in New Hampshire, is up 11 points.

"Romney's increased support has come entirely from conservative Republicans, and mostly at Gingrich's expense. Romney has actually lost support among moderate Republicans," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And most of Romney's newfound strength has come among higher-income categories - he has gained only three points among GOPers with less than $50,000 but 11 points among those who make more than that amount."

The poll also looks at hypothetical two-man matchups for the GOP nomination, with Romney leading Gingrich 59-37%, beating Santorum 60%-37%, and topping Paul 67-31%.

But Romney is certainly not unstoppable. Only 37% say they definitely will support the candidate they are currently backing, with 56 percent saying they might change their mind.

And the poll indicates Romney has some weaknesses.

Paul, for example, is a little bit ahead of him when Republicans are asked which candidate cares most about people. Gingrich tops Romney when Republicans are asked to name the candidate who is most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.

But Romney continues to have one ace up his sleeve - electability. Seven in ten Republicans say that they prefer a candidate who can beat Obama to one who agrees with them on every issue, and 55% believe that Romney has the best chance of defeating Obama in the general election.

"That's the biggest advantage of winning a race, such as Iowa or New Hampshire. Candidates who have won something look like winners; candidates who lost look like losers," says Holland. "Iowa and New Hampshire are probably a major reason why the number of Republicans who think Romney can beat Obama rose by 19 points since December while the number who think Gingrich has the best chance in November dropped by nearly two-thirds in that time."

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International, with 1,021 adult Americans, including 449 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/13/romney-back-on-top-in-new-cnn-national-poll/?hpt=hp_t2

[Dos Equis]

Romney's Newest Heavy Weight Hitter
by Nicole Busch | January 14, 2012

Mitt Romney's newest foreign policy surrogate didn't waste any time before going on the attack.

Last night, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton made a fierce debut by Romney's side, delivering some of the harshest criticisms of President Obama's foreign policy to date.

"He's not only the most radical president in history domestically; he is the first president, republican or democrat, at least since Franklin Roosevelt, who didn't get up every morning thinking first about what threats the united states faces. he just doesn't care about national security the way other presidents did, " Bolton told the audience at a veterans rally in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

The American people are looking for a president "who doesn't believe that the role of America in the world is to be a well-bred doormat," Bolton said.

He also stripped the president of any credit for the killing of Usama Bin Laden.

"It's because navy seal team 6 killed Usama bin laden. that's his definition of success. as somebody pointed out, in 1969 when Americans landed on the moon, it's like Richard Nixon taking for credit for that, because it happened to occur during his presidency," he said.

Sharing the stage with Bolton and Romney were senator John McCain and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.

McCain opened with a few recycled jokes from his 2008 campaign, but drew big laughs nonetheless when honoring the "geezers" for their service. he told the 900-plus crowd he "slept like a baby" after he lost the election nearly four years ago to President Obama.

"Sleep two hours, wake up and cry. sleep two hours, wake up and cry," McCain joked.

Then McCain delivered a one-two punch. He defended Romney against an onslaught of attacks this week from his GOP rivals who are labeling him a job killer for his years at Bain capital, and laid a glove on Obama for his investment in Solyndra.

"Staples was started by Mitt Romney and others, $5 million and a warehouse," McCain said. Then, stealing material from Romney's stump speech, he contrasted that with the government's investment in the solar panel maker. "they [Solyndra] didn't start in a warehouse. they started in some beautiful glass palace with $500 million of your tax dollars," McCain said.

In defense of Romney's jobs record, McCain said "yes, there were some jobs lost, but overall it's what the free enterprise system is all about and jobs and business were created all over this country by Mitt Romney."

Meanwhile, former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich renewed his calls for Romney to reveal documentation of the 100,000 plus jobs he claims were created by Bain. Last night Gingrich said, "my only challenge to the governor is, show us. if you got some data, put it up."

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2012/01/14/romneys-newest-heavy-weight-hitter

[Dos Equis]

Christian conservative leaders vote to support Santorum
Posted by
CNN's Kevin Liptak

(CNN) - A meeting of Christian conservative leaders resulted in the group backing GOP presidential hopeful Rick Santorum, Family Research Council president Tony Perkins announced Saturday.

The group heard pitches from surrogates for Republican candidates on Friday, and voted to support Santorum after voting on Saturday.

"After three rounds of balloting this morning, and vigorous and passionate discussion, there emerged a strong consensus around Rick Santorum as the preferred candidate for this group," Perkins said on a conference call Saturday.

The group of conservative leaders was meeting at a Texas ranch to discuss the 2012 race, although ahead of the meeting it appeared unlikely the gathering would come to an agreement on backing a particular candidate.

Well-known evangelicals flocked to the event, including Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Perkins, National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference president Rev. Samuel Rodriguez and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer. Members of the media were barred from attending.

Perkins expressed surprise the group was able to come to a consensus, but said what resulted would be a stronger chance of beating President Barack Obama.

"I will have to admit what I did not think was possible appears to be possible," Perkins said.

Representatives winnowed the field to two candidates: Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The final balloting gave 85 votes to Santorum and 29 to Gingrich.

One of the requirements for attending the meeting was a willingness to support the candidate that emerged as the winner. At least one attendee, American Family Association founder Don Wildmon, has publically endorsed Gingrich.

"There is a hope and expectation that those that are represented here, and their constituencies, that it will have an impact," Perkins said.

The individual organizations represented at the meeting will not coordinate in their efforts to back Santorum, Perkins said.

"It will manifest itself in many different ways," he said.

Perkins said discussion of frontrunner Mitt Romney's Mormon religion did not play a significant role in the weekend's discussion, and that the Romney team sent a surrogate to speak to the conservative leaders.

"This was not a bash-Mitt Romney weekend, it was focused on the positive," Perkins said. "It's not news that there is not strong support among conservatives for Mitt Romney, and that was reflected here."

Perkins dismissed concerns that the meeting happened too late the GOP race to have an impact, with Romney already having won the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. A CNN/ORC International poll released Friday showed Romney's lead growing over the rest of the field.

"The race is far from being decided," Perkins said. "South Carolina [which votes next Saturday] is a state that is more reflective of conservative voters. So this is good time to see movement toward a particular candidate for conservatives."

In a statement Saturday, Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond said the announcement was only an indication of who evangelical voters did not want in office.

"Conservative evangelical leaders spoke very clearly today that Mitt Romney will not be the nominee," Hammond said. "It is encouraging for the Republican Party to have two choices in Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. It is also encouraging that public opinion polls show South Carolina conservatives consolidating their support behind Newt Gingrich just a week before the all important First in the South Primary."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/14/christian-conservative-leaders-vote-to-back-santorum/

[Dos Equis]

S.C. predictions: If Romney wins, he's the nominee
Posted by CNN Producer Gabriella Schwarz

(CNN) – Two influential conservative politicians in South Carolina predicted Sunday that Mitt Romney will effectively wrap up the Republican presidential nomination if he wins the upcoming Palmetto State primary.

Sen. Lindsey Graham and Rep. Tim Scott, both Republicans, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that a Romney victory in South Carolina on January 21 would end the suspense after the former Massachusetts governor won the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"If for some reason he's not derailed here and Mitt Romney wins South Carolina, no one's ever won all three, I think it should be over," Graham said. "That would be quite a testament to his ability as a candidate and a campaigner."

On the same program, Scott said: "If Romney wins South Carolina, I think the game is over."

The comments followed a meeting of influential Christian conservative leaders over the weekend that resulted in an endorsement of former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in an effort to prevent a split among voters on the religious right.

Scott, who won his 2010 election with heavy backing from the tea party movement, said the impact of the evangelical vote - a typically large voting bloc in conservative South Carolina - will be "huge" on Saturday. However, he added that Romney will benefit if evangelical Christian voters are divided between Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as polls have indicated.

"It's hard to find a single candidate that rallies all of the Christian voters in South Carolina and therefore that splintered approach will probably have a major impact in the state's primary," Scott said.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/15/s-c-predictions-if-romney-wins-hes-the-nominee/

[Dos Equis]

I think he's up in Florida too?  He will wrap this up if he wins both. 

Reuters Poll: Romney Opens Up 21-Pt. Lead in SC
Sunday, 15 Jan 2012

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, could all but quash his rivals' presidential aspirations with a victory in South Carolina on January 21 after winning the first state-by-state nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Voters in South Carolina - who have favored Republicans in nine of the last 10 presidential elections - appear to have shrugged off attacks on Romney by rivals who accuse him of killing jobs as a private equity executive for Bain Capital in the 1990s.

The poll showed 37 percent of South Carolina Republican voters back Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.

Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, has fallen far back after holding a strong lead in South Carolina in December. He was in fourth place at 12 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

"In primary races things can change quickly but it does look like Romney is in position to win South Carolina, and if he wins ... that's sort of the end of the road for most of his challengers," Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson said.

. . .

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/romney-leads-poll-gingrich/2012/01/15/id/424221

[240 is Back]

Rick Perry Still Doesn't Know Which Agencies He'd Eliminate

 Perry flubbed his three departments once again, NBC's Carrie Dann reports. During a radio interview this morning, he was asked which federal departments he would shut down. Perry listed: "Three right off the bat: Commerce, Interior, and Energy are the three that you think of." Problem: Those are NOT the three he had previously not been able to name. He swapped Interior for Education. He has not previously said he would eliminate Interior.
 

[Soul Crusher]

Perry has the right ideas and instincts, and I would vote for him, but he is not polished enough.

BTW. -    F U C K Obama

[240 is Back]

Perry has the right ideas and instincts, and I would vote for him, but he is not polished enough.

Disagree.  Perry doesn't know what his ideas are.  He can repeat the policy 'blurbs' that his staffers write for him.

He's a cheerleader, a salesman, a great face for a conservative state.  but he's in over his head.  Nothing to do with polish - he has plaenty of that when he's on his game talking about the stuff he knows.  He could ramble about 9 mm vs 45, and probably speak coherently for hours on the topic with great points.

But the departments he is willing to cut - he doesn't udnerstand what they are and how they work. 

[Dos Equis]

SC as of today.  Someone will get a small bump after Huntsman's withdrawal is factored in.

Romney:  29.7%
Gingrich:  22.0%
Paul:  15.0%
Santorum:  14.3%
Perry:  5.7%
Huntsman:  5.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html