Author Topic: Misery Index: The Obama Depression - "Private sector doing just Fine"  (Read 152270 times)

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.


May 9, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

Housing crash is getting worse: report
Commentary: But all this bearish news makes me bullish
By Brett Arends, MarketWatch
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — If you thought the housing crisis was bad, think again.

It’s worse.

New data just out from Zillow, the real-estate information company, show house prices are falling at their fastest rate since the Lehman collapse.
• Pado: Summer stock pullback in the cards 144706 Average home prices are down 8% from a year ago, 3% over the quarter, and are falling at about 1% every month, according to Zillow.

And the percentage of homeowners in negative-equity positions — with a home worth less than its mortgage — has rocketed to 28%, a new crisis high.

Zillow now predicts prices will fall about 8% this year and says it no longer expects the market to bottom before 2012.

“There’s no way we can get to flat, from these depreciation levels, in the last nine months of the year,” says Zillow economist Stan Humphries. “Demand is a lot more anemic than we had previously thought.”

When in 2012 does Zillow see the market bottoming out? Humphries won’t say.

What a foolish boondoggle those tax breaks for home buyers have turned out to be. The government spent an estimated $22 billion between 2008 and 2010 on tax breaks to prop up the housing market. All it achieved was a brief suckers’ rally that ended last summer.

Click to Play  Zillow plots IPOOnline real-estate listings firm Zillow seeks to go public, looking to run with consumer-oriented Internet companies headed for IPOs like Facebook, Groupon and Pandora.
“As we said at the time, it was a giant waste of money,” says Mark Calabria, economist at the conservative Cato Institute. “None of these things really turned the housing market around. They just put off the adjustment for awhile.”

It’s hard to overestimate the scale of the carnage in the housing market. Zillow found prices fell in all but four U.S. metro areas.

Falling real-estate prices mean spiraling hidden losses throughout the economy, from banks to homeowners.

Remember Japan’s “zombie banks”? These were the financial institutions that haunted that country’s economic recovery after the 1990 crash. They staggered on with huge losses they could never repay — the walking dead.

Here in America we have “zombie homeowners.” Millions of them. According to Zillow, a record 16.3 million families are upside-down on their home loans. Sixteen million! And many are a long way upside-down. Their homes may never be worth as much as their mortgage. But they are hemorrhaging cash to pay the nut every month.



‘Demand is a lot more anemic than we had previously thought.’





Stan Humphries, Zillow


Recovery? What recovery? This looks a bit like a depression to me.

What does this mean?

All the misery makes me think of a great French general, Ferdinand Foch. He’s the one who defended Paris at the Battle of the Marne in World War I. During the darkest hour of the fighting, he is supposed to have looked around him and said:

“Hard pressed on my right. My center is yielding. Impossible to maneuver. Situation excellent — I attack!”

In other words, when it comes to distressed housing, I’m finding it hard not to be a contrarian bull.

Why? Am I crazy?

Well, maybe. But I’m a medium-bull for all the reasons everyone else is gloomy.

First, prices in many areas are now cheap. They have corrected a long way since the bubble began to burst five years ago. Of course, it depends on where you are. I’m still skeptical of the real-estate markets that have held up best — prime stuff like Manhattan, San Francisco or Beverly Hills. It’s hard to get a deal there.

But in the places that have fallen the furthest, there are deals aplenty. Zillow found only four metro areas in America that have leveled out, or risen, lately. Notably, two of those are in stricken Florida — Fort Myers and Sarasota. Have they fallen so far they’ve hit bottom? Maybe.



 

Look at this chart. It shows Miami real-estate prices, adjusted for inflation, over the past quarter-century, using Case-Shiller data. The picture is pretty remarkable. The gigantic bubble has been completely wiped out. We’re back to prices seen in the 1980s — when “Miami Vice” was on the air.

The second reason: There are tons of foreclosures and short sales on the market. And there are plenty more sitting in the wings. Banks are holding back big shadow inventories of homes. And that means you can get a great deal. They have to sell. You don’t have to buy. You hold all the cards. Remember, the name of the game isn’t “let’s make a deal.” It’s “take it or leave it.”

Third, in many places rental yields are terrific. It’s cheaper to own than to rent. There have been some forced sales in my building in Miami. Based on my math, the latest buyers have bought condominium units for six times gross annual rents, and maybe 12 times net rents. We’re talking net yields of 7% or more. And rents are rising, because so many former owners are now renters.

The fourth reason I’m bullish is that you can get a very cheap mortgage. Thirty-year conforming loans are going as low as 4.3%. Throw in the tax break on the interest, and you are talking cheap finance. See latest weekly mortgage-rate update.

The fifth reason is that, as painful as this collapse has been, real estate has historically proven to offer very good long-term protection against inflation. Returns have typically averaged about 1% or 2% above inflation. At a time when everyone has been piling into gold, commodities and TIPS bonds to protect themselves against the possibility of inflation, it seems odd that the most popular and successful hedge, namely real estate, goes a-begging.



TRADING STRATEGIES: MAY
Stay to play in May

While the temptation to sell in May is strong, there are reasons to stick around: from stocks that ignore the summer doldrums, to those that benefit from America's sports obsessions.


Not so fast. Steve Quirk, head of the Trader Group at TD Ameritrade, says large-cap stocks hold appeal, and suggests buying portfolio insurance while it's cheap.143702 Thirty-year TIPS bonds are yielding just 1.6% over inflation, and shorter-term bonds offer even lower returns. Short-term TIPS are actually offering negative real yields. How holding TIPS may actually make you poorer.

The sixth reason I’m bullish is perverse, but I’m sticking by it. Everyone else is bearish. You cannot find a real-estate bull anywhere. No one wants to own this asset. No one wants to talk about it. No one wants to hear about it. Everyone seems to agree it’s just going down, down, down — forever.

They said much the same about stocks in 1987, 2002 and 2009; Treasury bonds in 1982; and gold in 2000. I cannot prove this is capitulation, but it sure smells something like it.

As ever, if you aren’t disciplined and patient, this probably isn’t for you.

I have absolutely no idea when real estate is going to hit rock bottom. It may take several years. I suspect it will do so in different markets at different times. But there are good homes out there going really cheap. If you hunt down the bargains, you’re disciplined about price, you get the right financing, and you hold on for five years or more, you’ll probably do pretty well from here.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Almost half of Detroit unable to read
Russia Today ^ | May 6, 2011 | Russia Today




A study by the Detroit Regional Workforce Fund found that 47 percent of adults in the city are ‘functionally illiterate’.

‘Functionally illiterate’ means they struggle with day-to-day tasks, like reading job applications, following a bus schedule or understanding product labels.

Those deemed illiterate however have been educated. The report indicated that the same group found to be ‘functionally illiterate’ had completed element education, where reading is taught and half of the group had either a high school diploma or a GED.

Nearly half of the city’s population lacks the necessary skills to work in even the most entry level and remedial jobs.

“Increasing adult educational attainment is critical to connecting the one in two city residents who are currently unemployed and underemployed to good jobs in our new economy,” said Karen Tyler-Ruiz, director of the Detroit Regional Workforce Fund. “This is a critical opportunity for Detroit, where we know that access to services to improve basic skills like reading and math are extremely limited in and around the city.”

Detroit however is not Michigan’s only problem spot. Surrounding cities and suburbs also show many residents are unable to adequately read. With a number of areas showing 24 percent to 34 percent of the area’s population is ‘functionally illiterate’.

The city, already in shambles due to the recession, experienced a major decline in population according to the 2010 US Census. The population fell by 25 percent, the city’s lowest numbers since 1910. Around one third of the city sits vacant and deteriorating.

225for70

  • Getbig IV
  • ****
  • Posts: 3127
  • Suckmymuscle is OneMoreRep's little bitch
Them peoplez ain't be readin in Detroit ain't Obama's fault.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Those people not being able to read in Detroit isn't Obama's fault.

Ha ha ha ha - its still a symbol of misery.    and considerin gobama promised to split the oceans and "we are the ones we have been waiting for", yes I blame him.    ;D  ;D

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Guest Post: $6.5 Trillion Lost, One House At A Time
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2011 09:57 -0400
www.zerohedge.com




BLSBureau of Labor StatisticsFailGuest PostHousing BubblePurchasing PowerReal estateRealityToo Big To Fail


Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

$6.5 Trillion Lost, One House At A Time

The $6.5 trillion lost in the bursting of the housing bubble is not a "paper loss," it is tragically real.

Is anyone surprised that housing continues to slide? According to this report, Home Market Takes a Tumble: Turnaround More Distant After 3% Drop, Steepest Quarterly Decline Since 2008, housing has declined in value for 57 straight months, almost 5 years.

Since the housing bubble topped in most areas in 2006, and it's now 2011, that makes sense: 2006 + 5 = 2011.

American homeowners have lost $6.5 trillion in equity in those 57 months. Here is the data from the Fed Flow of Funds household balance sheet:

Homeowner's equity:
2006: $12.8 trillion
2011: $6.3 trillion

Net decline: $6.5 trillion

That is a big number, and the analysis I presented in The Housing Bubble Broke the Middle Class (April 27, 2011) suggested that this $6.5 trillion was roughly half of the middle class's total net assets.

It's difficult to grasp such large numbers, so let's look at some actual houses. The sales price of houses is public record, and more or less at random, here is a selection of recent home sales here in Northern California. I purposefully selected sales from a spectrum of neighborhoods ranging from working-class to very desirable, exclusive suburbs (the price will telegraph the property's desirability).

The key point here is that these catastrophic losses are taken by someone: either the homeowner, the lender, or the taxpayer. The gains were paper, but the losses are real. That is the ongoing tragedy of the housing bubble.

1. Recent sale: $820,000
Last sold 2007: $1.172 million
Nominal loss: $355,000
(does not include transaction costs or losses due to inflation)

Even if owner put down 30%, their equity was wiped out.

2. Recent sale: $110,000
Last sold 2005: $370,000
Nominal loss: $260,000

3. Recent sale: $160,000
Last sold 2004: $455,000
Nominal loss: $295,000

4 Recent sale: $175,000
Last sold 1999: $205,000
Nominal loss: $30,000

Nationally, prices have round-tripped to 2003, but that masks the reality that in many locales, prices have returned to 1998 or even lower.

This is a home in a very desirable suburb:

5. Recent sale: $650,000
Last sold 2005: $1.25 million
Nominal loss: $600,000

If you add up the losses from just these four homes purchased in the bubble era, the loss exceeds $1.5 million. That is a staggering loss from only four homes. Now multiple that by hundreds of thousands of homes.

Here are two homes in less desirable ("rough") neighborhoods:

6. Recent sale: $85,000
Last sold 2004: $295,000
Nominal loss: $210,000

7. Recent sale: $135,000
Last sold 2005: $419,000
Nominal loss: $284,000

Sadly, the subprime mortgage fraud enabled the "dream" of effortless profits from owning and churning real estate to filter down to even marginal areas. The bubble put real estate out of reach of qualified moderate-income buyers, and yet it was touted as a wonderful "innovation." It was certainly wonderful for Wall Street and those who originated the embezzlement-special mortgages, but less so for the taxpayers who were handed the bill to save the "too big to fail" banks and investment banks.

8. Recent sale: $255,000
Last sold 1996: $189,500
Nominal gain: $65,500

This is interesting because it offers an example of the pernicious effects of even "low" inflation. As we are constantly reminded, the U.S. has been in a "low inflation" environment for decades. This is of course a key part of the propaganda campaign to mask the severe erosion in wages' purchasing power.

On the face of it, the home seller pocketed a hefty profit of $65,500. But let's factor in commission and inflation. The transaction costs (commission, closing, transfer fees, etc.) are typically around 7%, so the actual net capital gains would be around $47,500, not $65,500.

According to the BLS inflation calculator, which likely underestimates "real" inflation, it now takes $270,000 to buy what $190,000 bought in 1996.

So the owner actually lost purchasing power in owning this house for 15 years. Minus commission and closing costs, the proceeds were around $237,000, which is about $33,000 less than the inflation-adjusted break-even point of $270,000.

Yes, there is the mortgage deduction and tax breaks to factor in, but considered strictly as an investment, the nominal and real gains in real estate still matter.

Put another way: a house purchased in 1996 for $100,000 has to be worth $142,000 today just to keep up with inflation. Factoring in transactions costs, then the house would have to be sold for roughly $152,000 for the owner to extract $142,000--the sum needed to simply maintain purchasing power.

In other words, a house that rose 50% over the past 15 years has simply kept pace with inflation. The nominal "gain" is utterly illusory.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Dollar in graver danger than the euro
Financial Times ^ | Axel Merk
Posted on May 11, 2011 9:58:10 PM EDT by cornfedcowboy

Imagine a country that spends and prints trillions to patch up any problem.

Now imagine another country where there is no central Treasury, meaning that bail-outs are less easy, and which has a central bank that has mopped up liquidity over the past year, rather than engage in quantitative easing.

Why does it surprise anyone that the latter, the eurozone, has a stronger currency than the former, the US? Because of peripheral countries’ debt refinancing issues? And the potential for contagion? These are real and serious issues, but in our assessment, they should be primarily priced into the spreads of eurozone bonds, not the euro itself.

(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Click to Add Topic

Bindare_Dundat

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12227
  • KILL CENTRAL BANKS, BUY BITCOIN.
Some of the losses for the homes in less desirable neighborhoods is incredible. wow...

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Some of the losses for the homes in less desirable neighborhoods is incredible. wow...

I have been holding out forever buying a house.  Prices are still way too high. 

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Related News:Markets Magazine  · Science .Desperate Americans Buy Kidneys From Peru Poor in Fatal Trade
By Michael Smith - May 12, 2011 12:01 AM ET Bloomberg Markets Magazine
(Bloomberg) --



Francis Delmonico, a Harvard Medical School professor and surgeon, talks with Bloomberg's Michael Smith about the illicit market for organ transplants. Affluent, often desperately ill patients travel to countries such as Egypt, Peru and the Philippines, where poor people sell them their organs. Elisabeth Tercero, whose son died after having a kidney removed in Nicaragua, and Vilma Bramon, a victim of botched surgery in Peru, also speak through translation. (Source: Bloomberg)


Luis Picado’s mother remembers the day her son thought he had won the lottery. He came home to their tin-roofed cinder-block house in a Managua, Nicaragua, slum and said he’d found a way to escape poverty and start a new life in the United States.

An American man had promised to give Picado, a 23-year-old high school dropout who worked as a construction laborer, a job and an apartment in New York if he’d donate one of his kidneys. He jumped at the deal, his mother says.

Three weeks later, in May 2009, Picado came out of surgery at Managua’s Military Hospital, bleeding internally from the artery doctors had severed to remove his kidney, according to medical records. His mother, Elizabeth Tercero, got on her knees next to her son’s bed in the recovery room and prayed, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its June issue.

“I told my boy not to worry, that I would take care of him,” Tercero, 49, says. “But it was too late.” Picado bled to death as doctors tried to save him, according to a coroner’s report. “He was always chasing the American dream, and finally, it cost him his life,” she says.

Matthew Ryan, the American man, suffered a similar fate. Ryan, a 68-year-old retired bus company supervisor in New York, died two months after receiving Picado’s kidney in the same hospital.

Nicaraguan postmortem reports cited the transplant as a cause of death for both men. Prosecutors in Managua are now investigating whether anyone broke a Nicaraguan law that prohibits paying a donor for an organ.

Illicit Market
The two men were participants in a growing and illicit market for organ transplants that spans the globe. Every year, about 5,000 gravely ill people from countries including the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia pay others to donate an organ, says Francis Delmonico, a Harvard Medical School professor and surgeon. The practice is illegal in every country except Iran, Delmonico says.

Affluent, often desperately ill patients travel to countries such as Egypt, Peru and the Philippines, where poor people sell them their organs. In Latin America, the transplants are usually arranged by unlicensed brokers. They’re performed -- for fees -- by accredited surgeons, some of whom have trained at the world’s leading medical schools.

The global demand for organs far exceeds the available supply. In the U.S., 110,693 people are on waiting lists for organs, and fewer than 15,000 donors are found annually.

Americans who go abroad for illicit transplants can contract infections or HIV from unhealthy donors, posing a public health threat when they return, Delmonico says.

‘Exploit the Patient’
“With all the anxiety in getting a transplant, they exploit the patient,” says Delmonico, who is president-elect of the Montreal-based Transplantation Society, which lobbies governments to crack down on trafficking. “It’s big money.”

The illegal organ trade is the ugly side of the otherwise legal medical tourism industry, in which people travel to other countries for cut-rate hip replacements, tummy tucks and gastric bypasses. The legitimate medical procedures generated about $100 billion in revenue in 2010, according to a report by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.

For decades, wealthy Brazilians, Mexicans and Saudis have gone to U.S. and European hospitals for medical care they couldn’t get at home. In the past decade, that pattern has changed. Hospitals from Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, to Medellin, Colombia, now lure middle-class Americans with promises of high- quality care at a fraction of what it would cost them at home.

Medical tourism company MedToGo LLC, based in Tempe, Arizona, says it will offer kidney transplants in Mexico and Costa Rica for about $50,000, a fifth of the cost in the U.S.

Preying on the Poor
In the illegal organ trade, brokers scour the world’s slums, preying on the poor with promises of easy money and little risk in exchange for a kidney. Inside hospitals, people are injured or killed by botched surgery as doctors place money above ethics, criminal investigators say.

In Colombia, 321 foreigners got transplants from 2005 to 2010, according to the country’s National Health Institute. Juan Lopez, a doctor who oversees Colombia’s organ transplant system as director of the NHI, says many of these surgeries are driven by profit for hospitals, doctors and brokers.

“I don’t want my country to be a Mecca for transplant tourism,” Lopez says. He’s gone to court to try to stop 23 organ transplants for foreigners since 2010, he says.

In Peru, Rafael Peraldo, a taxi driver who’s under investigation for being an organ broker, has plied Lima’s dusty slums since at least 2005, according to five people who say in interviews that they sold kidneys to him.

‘Spare-Parts Bank’
Peraldo paid as little as $5,000, the five people say.

Patients who bought these organs paid as much as $150,000, prosecutors have found.

“The poor have become a spare-parts bank for the well-to- do,” says University of California, Berkeley, anthropologist Nancy Scheper-Hughes, who specializes in organ trafficking.

The Peruvian National Prosecutor’s Office is investigating 61 transplants in seven of Lima’s top hospitals since 2004, documents in the case show. Peraldo is one of 150 brokers, doctors, nurses and others under investigation, says Jesus Asencios, the prosecutor leading the probe.

Peraldo says in a telephone interview that he’s done nothing wrong; he says he won’t say more until the investigation is completed.

Because people with kidney failure are always in poor health, a transplant is never a guaranteed cure. Still, legal transplants have a high probability of success. More than 75 percent of the recipients of kidney transplants in the U.S. live for more than 10 years, according to the National Institutes of Health.

Perils Abound
Donors usually do fine; they can live a normal life span with just one of their two kidneys. In the illicit trade, by contrast, perils abound for all participants.

Organs removed by surgeons in Peru from 2004 to 2010 went to ill men and women from the U.S., Chile, Mexico, Spain and Venezuela, according to hospital records and prosecutors’ interviews with donors and doctors.

One of those patients was Oscar Soberon, the wealthy founder of a Mexico City computer systems company. After about a year of enduring dialysis sessions to survive kidney failure, Soberon negotiated a transplant at a Lima hospital with Peruvian doctor Christian Miranda, for $125,000, Soberon told prosecutors before he died.

On Nov. 1, 2009, doctors transplanted a kidney from a baker into Soberon. Eleven weeks after surgery, Soberon was dead, his body ravaged by infection, his medical records show.

Waiting Lists
The kidney is a fist-sized organ that continuously filters blood to clear waste from the body. Toxins are flushed into the bladder, which removes them. When a kidney fails, doctors use a machine system called dialysis to circulate and clean blood. A patient with kidney failure will die quickly without dialysis or a transplant.

In legal transplants, a kidney patient typically turns to relatives willing to donate one of their kidneys, or goes onto a waiting list if no one volunteers. A hospital screens potential donors, reviewing their health records, blood type and body tissue to ensure they’re medically compatible.

The illicit organ trade is dangerous for the donor and patient because criminals take shortcuts, such as accepting organs from people who are sick and wouldn’t be approved by hospitals in the U.S., says Gabriel Danovitch, medical director of the kidney and pancreas transplant program at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“It’s a filthy business in the same subcategory as the sex trade and child pornography,” Danovitch says. “That is why it has to be stopped.”

It’s hard to stop critically ill people who are in a race against death from seeking solutions outside the official transplant system, especially if they have the money and connections to do something about it.

Ryan, the retired New York bus line supervisor, used his son-in-law in Managua to set up a deal for a kidney, says Picado’s boss, who overheard the offer. The chain of events that brought Ryan together with the 23-year-old Picado began in 2009.

Ryan, known by relatives as a quiet, levelheaded man who rarely got angry, had been living a grueling existence since his kidneys failed in 2007. He lived in Cedarhurst, New York, near John F. Kennedy International Airport, with his wife, Lily Molina, an immigrant from Nicaragua, and underwent four-hour dialysis sessions three times a week.

Welts covered his arms, where medical workers inserted tubes into his veins. Like many kidney patients, Ryan was seeking a transplant.

“He was on a waiting list but was suffering a lot,” says Molina, 53, who first met Ryan when she worked at a Wendy’s restaurant in 2001. They married in 2005.

In March 2009, Ryan traveled to Nicaragua for vacation. He stayed with his stepdaughter, Julissa Molina, and her husband, Elvis Hernandez, in their two-bedroom home near Managua’s Augusto C. Sandino International Airport.

The house was being remodeled by Picado and his boss, Erick Bermudez, who remembers how the subject of transplants came up.

“Elvis said Ryan’s kidneys were bad and he needed a transplant,” says Bermudez, sitting in the windowless, dirt- floored room he rents in Managua.

Two months later, in May 2009, Ryan offered Picado a deal, says Bermudez. He says he heard the entire conversation as he stood a few feet away. Using his stepson as an interpreter, Ryan said he would arrange for a coyote, or human smuggler, to transport Picado illegally to New York if he donated a kidney, Bermudez says.

Picado went over the details of the offer several times, he says.

“Luis said they would give him a $5,000 gift for his kidney,” Bermudez says. “They told him everything he wanted to hear.”

For years, Picado, who had a round face and thick, curly black hair, had talked about going to the U.S. to escape the poverty that plagued just about everyone he knew, says his mother, Elizabeth Tercero.

“Luis said the gringo would take him to New York and he’d never have to worry about anything else,” Tercero says. “I begged him not to do it. It could be dangerous. But he wouldn’t listen.”

Hernandez says there wasn’t any promise of compensation for Picado.

“Luis did it altruistically,” he says. “Maybe Matthew said he would try to help him out, but there was no offer of any money.”

Ryan’s widow, Lily Molina, says her husband told her Picado had donated voluntarily and he never gave him any cash.


Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
So much for obamacare -  ha ha ha ha - you fucking assholes.   

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
New Yorkers under 30 plan to flee city, says new poll; cite high taxes, few jobs as reasons
New York Daily News.com ^ | May 13,2011 | Kenneth Lovett




Escape from New York is not just a movie - it's also a state of mind.

A new Marist College poll shows that 36% of New Yorkers under the age of 30 are planning to leave New York within the next five years - and more than a quarter of all adults are planning to bolt the Empire State.

The New York City suburbs, with their high property values and taxes, are leading the exodus, the poll found.

Of those preparing to leave, 62% cite economic reasons like cost of living, taxes - and a lack of jobs.

"A lot of people are questioning the affordability of the state," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

An additional 38% cite climate, quality of life, overcrowding, a desire to be closer to family, retirement or schools.

The latest census showed New York's overall population actually increased, though parts of upstate shed population and jobs.

A full 53% think the worst is yet to come for the state's economy, while 44% say things should start improving.

"As the state of the economy fails to recover, New Yorkers see this not as a sluggish rebound, but as a sluggish economy," Miringoff said.

During a visit to Buffalo yesterday, Gov. Cuomo yesterday said attracting and retaining jobs is a priority for his administration.

"We have to keep jobs here and we have to develop new jobs," he said. "And we want to start bringing back jobs from other parts of the country."

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Medicare Financing to Run Out in 2024 Without Fix
By Drew Armstrong - May 13, 2011 12:08 PM ET


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-13/medicare-financing-to-run-out-in-2024-without-fix.html



Medicare, the U.S. health insurance program for the elderly and disabled, won’t have sufficient money to pay full benefits starting in 2024, five years earlier than last year’s estimate.

Social Security, the federal program that provides income to retirees, will run out of funds for paying full benefits in 2036, one year sooner than projected last year, the U.S. government said today in an annual report on the program.

Both projections have been affected by a slower-than- anticipated economic recovery, according to the report. The estimates for funding add urgency to negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on ways to cut spending to reduce the U.S. budget deficit.

“Projected long-run program costs for both Medicare and Social Security are sustainable under currently scheduled financing, and will require legislative corrections if disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers are to be avoided,” according to the report summary.

The 2010 health-care overhaul backed by Democrats extended the life of Medicare, though more must be done to shore up the program’s long-term funding, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement distributed with the report.

“If action is taken sooner rather than later, more options and more time will be available to phase in changes so that those affected can adequately prepare,” he said in the statement. “If we do not do more to contain health-care costs, our commitments will become unsustainable.”

Republicans demanding that the U.S. cut its budget deficit have proposed privatizing Medicare by giving individuals a subsidy to buy coverage from private insurers.

To contact the reporter on this story: Drew Armstrong in Washington at darmstrong17@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adriel Bettelheim at abettelheim@bloomberg.net

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Social Security deficits now ‘permanent’
By Stephen Dinan
The Washington Times
12:55 p.m., Friday, May 13, 2011



Social Security will run a permanent yearly deficit when looking at the program's tax revenues compared to what it must pay out in benefits, the program's trustees said Friday in a report that found both the outlook for Social Security and Medicare, the two major federal social safety-net programs, have worsened over the last year.

Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund is now slated to run out of money in 2024, or five years earlier than last year's projection, while Social Security's trust fund will be exhausted by 2036, a year earlier than the prior projection.

The trustees stressed that exhaustion of the trust funds doesn't mean the programs will stop paying all benefits. Social Security could fund about three-fourths of benefits past 2036, and Medicare could pay 90 percent of benefits past 2024 under current trends.

The figures come as Congress and President Obama are wrestling over whether to make major changes to the entitlement spending, and Republicans said the new projections should force the debate to turn in their direction.

"Today's report makes it clearer than ever that doing nothing is not an option. The failure to act means current as well as future beneficiaries, will face significant cuts even sooner than previously estimated," said three top House Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee, which oversees both programs.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the managing trustee of the boards of trustees for the two programs, said the report shows the need to act "sooner rather than later," but said Mr. Obama has actually put forward an outline calling for changes to stabilize the finances for the major entitlements programs.

And Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius argued that Medicare would have been in worse shape without the new health care law Democrats passed last year, which reduced billions of dollars of Medicare payments.

Social Security began running an annual deficit in 2010 when looking at tax income and benefit payments. The gap right now is made up by payments from the trust fund, which in theory has built up over the years when the program ran an annual surplus.

Charles Blahous, one of the trustees, said the gap between tax revenues and benefit payments is now "a permanent feature of the program's finances going forward."

Still, Michael Astrue, the Social Security Administration's commissioner, said the gap was not a major issue compared with the broad size and scope of Social Security.

"It is a rounding error in terms of its significance, in my opinion," he said.

© Copyright 2011 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.
 

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
ExtraPundit 5/15/2011
Shadow Stat: Misery Index Highest on Record

John Williams, over at Shadow Stats, compiles economic data for inflation and unemployment the way it used to be calculated pre-1990. Based on that data, the CPI inflation rate is over 10%, and the unemployment rate is over 15% (see charts). The Misery Index is the sum of the current inflation rate and the unemployment rate. If it were to be calculated using the older methods, the Index would now be over 25, a record high. It surpasses the old index high of 21.98, which occurred in June 1980, when Jimmy Carter was president. Most believe the height of the Index along with the Iranian hostage crisis is what caused Carter to lose his re-election bid.







Using current calculation methods, April unemployment came in at 9.0% and the annualized April CPI number came in at 4.8%, for a Misery Index reading of 13.8.

The last time the Index came in with a higher reading with this index reading was in March 1983, with a reading of 13.90.
EconomicPolicyJournal.co m: Shadow Stat Misery Index Highest on Record

Sponsored Link:
The Evidence Provided Below on These People's Frightening Involvement with the Antichrist New World Agenda is Under a threat of Being Taken Offline. You Must Act Now to Receive it...Fast" FIND OUT MORE NOW








IT OFFICIAL NOW!

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Geithner Admits: There Are NO Trust Funds
Market Ticker ^ | May 15, 2011 | Karl Denninger
Posted on May 15, 2011 10:45:26 PM EDT by MulberryDraw

Note this one well folks:

"Medicare, the government health plan for seniors, will exhaust its principal trust fund five years sooner than previously thought, which could heighten pressure on the White House and Congress to change the program as part of deficit-reduction negotiations."

Wait a second.... didn't we just hear this from Timmy about the need to borrow more money?

"If the United States were forced to stop, limit or delay payment on obligations to which the Nation has already committed - such as military salaries, Social Security and Medicare, tax refunds, contractual payments to businesses for goods and services, and payments to our investors...."

Busted jackass.

Tim Geithner just admitted in writing that there is no trust fund - there is no money - the Government in fact blew every last penny of it.

You, America, have been serially lied to about these so-called "trust funds."

THEY DO NOT EXIST.

(Excerpt) Read more at market-ticker.org ...

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
James Pethokoukis
Politics and policy from inside Washington

» SEE ALL ANALYSIS AND OPINION
The Obama Misery Index
APR 29, 2011 15:45 EDT
     
inShare
   
2012 ELECTION | US POLITICS
The Misery Index (inflation plus unemployment) through March was 11.48 percent (2.68 percent, 8.8 percent). By comparison, it was 10.52 percent in 1992 when Bill Clinton handily beat George Bush.  (It was nearly 21 percent in 1980 when Ronald Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter.) In fact, it has not been double digits for an entire year since Bush I’s first term. This goes along way in explaining why trust in Obama’s handling of the economy has collapsed. And a new Gallup Poll finds that Americans prefer the GOP budget approach to that of Democrats by 48 percent to 36 percent.

Also keep in mind how rising gas and food prices are eating into incomes. Real disposable income (personal income after taxes and adjusted for inflation) increased only 0.1% after being flat in February.

 

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Source: Washington Post

The Obama administration will begin to tap federal retiree programs to help fund operations after the government loses its ability Monday to borrow more money from the public, adding urgency to efforts in Washington to fashion a compromise over the debt.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has warned for months that the government would soon hit the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling — a legal limit on how much it can borrow. With the government poised to reach that limit Monday, Geithner is undertaking special measures in an effort to postpone the day when he will no longer have enough funds to pay all of the government’s bills.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/treasury...

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Why the Job Market Feels So Dismal
The number of hires is the same today as it was when we were shedding jobs at record rates.
By EDWARD P. LAZEAR
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576317142210698436.html#articleTabs%3Dcomments






Why don't American workers feel that the labor market is on the mend? After all, the May 6 jobs report could suggest that the labor market is improving. Nonfarm employment rose by 244,000 and employment growth over the last three months is averaging over 200,000 per month. With unemployment at 9%, employment is still down many millions from where it should be, but up from its recession lows.

The fact is the jobs numbers that create so much anticipation from the business press and so many pundit pronouncements do not give a clear picture of the labor market's health. A better understanding requires an examination of hires and separations, or what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. Here are some surprising facts:

First, the increase in job growth that occurred over the past two years results from a decline in the number of layoffs, not from increased hiring. In February 2009, a month during which the labor market lost more than 700,000 jobs, employers hired four million workers. In March 2011, employers hired four million workers. The number of hires is the same today as it was when we were shedding jobs at record rates.

We added jobs because hires exceeded separations, not because hiring increased. There were 4.7 million separations in February 2009. In March 2011 that number had fallen to 3.8 million. The fall in separations reflects a decline in layoffs, which went from 2.5 million per month in February 2009 to 1.6 million per month in March 2011. One small piece of good news is that the just-released April data showed hires up about 2% over last year's average and 12% above the low reached in January 2010.

The decline in layoffs is not unexpected and does not necessarily reflect labor-market health. Layoffs tend to occur early in a recession. When an economy has reached bottom and has already shed much of its labor, layoffs slow. But that doesn't mean that the labor force is recovering. We could have high unemployment and a stagnant labor force even when layoffs are low. Isn't the fact that hires exceed separations indicative of a healthy labor market? Unfortunately, no.

At any point in the business cycle, even during a recession, American firms still hire a huge number of workers. That's because most of the action in the labor market reflects "churn," the continual process of replacing workers, not net expansion or contraction of employment. The lowest number hired in any month of the current recession was 3.6 million workers. Even during the dismal year of 2009 there were more than 45 million hires.

Bear in mind that the U.S. labor force has more than 150 million workers or job seekers. In a typical year, about one-third or more of the work force turns over, leaving their old jobs to take new ones. When the labor market creates 200,000 jobs, it is because five million are hired and 4.8 million are separated, not because there were 200,000 hires and no job losses. When we're talking about numbers as large as five million, the net of 200,000 is small and may reflect minor, month-to-month variations in the number of hires or separations.

The third fact puts this in perspective. In a healthy labor market like the one that prevailed in 2006 and early 2007, American firms hire about 5.5 million workers per month. Recall that the current number of hires is four million and it has not moved much from where it was two years ago. The labor market does not feel like it is expanding if hiring is not occurring at a recovery-level pace—and that means at least a half million more hires per month than we are seeing now.

The combination of low hiring and a large stock of unemployed workers, now 13.7 million, means that the competition for jobs is fierce. Because there are now many more unemployed workers, and because hiring is only about 70% of 2006 levels, a worker is about one-third as likely to find a job today as he or she was in 2006. It is no wonder that workers do not feel that the labor market has recovered.

One final fact is worth noting. Healthy labor markets are characterized not only by high levels of hiring, but also by high levels of separations. Although it is true that the importance of quits relative to layoffs rises during good times, even the number of layoffs was greater in the strong labor market of 2006-07 than it is now. No one would suggest that layoffs are good for workers, but what is good is a fluid labor market, where workers and firms constantly seek to produce better products and to find more efficient ways to produce them. High labor market churn is a characteristic of a strong economy. It generally means that workers are moving to better jobs in growing sectors that pay higher wages and away from declining sectors that pay lower wages.

Allowing maximum flexibility encourages fluidity and means that employers are willing to hire workers who lose their jobs elsewhere. Many European countries have restricted mobility by imposing severance pay penalties on employers that lay workers off. More than reducing layoffs, these rigidities make employers reluctant to hire because of the penalties that they will later incur if a layoff is necessary. Such restrictions are in large part responsible for the chronically high rates of unemployment that have been prevalent in many European countries.

The prescription for the American labor market is simple: low taxes on capital investment, avoidance of excessively burdensome regulation, and open markets here and abroad. We must create a climate in which investment is profitable, productivity is rising, and employers find it profitable to increase their hiring rate. These are the mantras that economists have chanted in the past. But they are our best bet for ensuring a dynamic and growing labor market.

Mr. Lazear, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers from 2006-2009, is a professor at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business and a Hoover Institution fellow.

GigantorX

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6370
  • GetBig's A-Team is the Light of Truth!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-state-manufacturing-index-plunges-comes-119-down-217-and-big-miss-expectations-1955[/b]]http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-state-manufacturing-index-plunges-comes-119-down-217-and-big-miss-expectations-1955

Empire State Manufacturing Index Plunges, Comes At 11.9 Down From 21.7, And Big Miss To Expectations Of 19.55
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2011 08:37 -0400

Empire Manufacturing Index Empire State Manufacturing Gross Domestic Product Stagflation

And the US stagflation continues. The just released Empire Manufacturing index has plunged nearly by half from 21.7 to 11.9 in May. The general business conditions index fell ten points to 11.9. The new orders index declined fi ve points to 17.2, and the shipments index slipped three points to 25.8. The inventories index climbed to 10.8, its highest level in a year. The prices paid index rose to  69.9, its highest level since mid-2008, and the second highest ever, while the prices received index held firm at 28.0. And more on the stagflation as defined by the ongoing surge in Prices Paid: "The prices paid index rose sharply, indicating that price increases accelerated over the month. The index advanced twelve points to 69.9, its highest level since mid- 2008, with roughly 70 percent of respondents reporting price increases, and none reporting price declines. This index has moved up a cumulative fifty points over thepast six months." Downward GDP revisions are a-coming.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More bad news.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Obama's high energy price policies are coming home to roost.   Like in 2007-2008 when $4 gas prices were the spark that collapsed the economy, so it will be again. 

Everything this govt has been doing has made every existing problem worse.   

1.  Energy prices - check
2.  Health care inflation - check
3.  Weak dollar policy - check
4.  Out of control regulatory agencies - check
5.  Regulatory and tax uncertainty - check 


If someone paid me millions of dollars to come up with a better way to collapse the nation, I don't think I could do better than Obama Admn and the horrible policies we have been following could do.     

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
In bad economy, drivers buckling under traffic tickets
St. Pete Times ^ | Monday, May 16, 2011 | By Michael Van Sickler, Times Staff Writer






Rosemary Smith saw the motorcycle cop's flashing lights behind her, and her eyes immediately started to well up.

She was going 17 mph over the speed limit and faced a $256 fine, the officer told her after she pulled into a parking lot off Fourth Street N.

As she fought back tears, her life story spilled out. She was a full-time college student, her only income from part-time work as a bank teller. She had a wedding coming up in November.

"I've got house bills to pay," said Smith, 21, visibly shaken as she clutched the wheel of her blue Saturn. "I'm freaking out."

Motorists complaining about tickets is nothing new for traffic cops. But officers say they are sensing growing distress.

"A day doesn't go by when I don't see someone cry," said Officer Mauricio Steffek. "They can't believe how much the ticket costs. They'll tell me, 'Give me a break. I don't have a job now. I'm falling behind the mortgage or car payments.' "

Once a minor, if stressful, inconvenience, the everyday traffic citation is becoming a life altering breaking point for many.

And more and more, drivers aren't paying them — creating a ripple effect in city and county budgets across Tampa Bay.

In St. Petersburg, the money collected from traffic tickets has dropped from $681,000 in 2008 to $494,214 in 2010. It's projected to dwindle even further this year — despite the fact that police handed out 1,500 more tickets last year than they did in 2008.

"It's a drastic drop that means we have to find revenue from other places," said Tim Finch, St. Petersburg's director of budget and management. "It makes it tougher on other departments."

Pinellas County has seen its ticket revenue fall by $700,000 in two years. In Tampa, police estimate they will bring in $900,000 less than they did in 2008. In Hillsborough, fine collections are down nearly $3 million since 2008.

"It's directly related to the economy," said Hillsborough Clerk of Courts Pat Frank. "People are being more cautious because they can't afford it. And police officers are more reluctant to give out tickets when the fines are more costly."

In recent years, Florida's tax adverse politicians have raised fees to generate new revenue. Traffic law-flouting motorists are a tempting target because they don't garner public sympathy.

State lawmakers in 2009 approved new measures to produce more than $63 million, all from the pockets of wayward motorists. Included: a new $10 charge on all traffic infractions, cutting an 18 percent discount for attending traffic school, and a $25 increase for exceeding the speed limit by 15 to 29 mph.

Local governments tack on more charges. In Pinellas County, for instance, each citation can get assessed an extra $30 for court costs; $3 for driver education safety programs; $3 for teen court; and $2 to pay for public safety applicant screenings.

Tickets range from $62 for a bicycle infraction to $456 for traveling 20 to 29 mph over the limit in a school or construction zone. If a driver is hit with multiple violations, such as speeding, not wearing a seat belt and having an expired tag, fines can climb to nearly $700.

In times like these, a ticket can be a severe blow to those living paycheck to paycheck.

Officers have the discretion to waive the ticket if they think the driver would be better served with a warning. Traffic cops like to say it's about public safety, not the money.

On a recent Tuesday morning, Steffek listened to Smith's tale of woe. He called up her driving history. Clean. He decided to waive the fine.

"It would have been hard for me to pay," said Smith, grateful and smiling.

As she drove away, Steffek said he had imagined himself in her predicament.

"She was shaking really bad," he said. "She was scared."

• • •

Pain felt by drivers is so evident their biggest supporters are often the cops who stop them.

"Our deputies feel that because of the way the economy is, they give out a lot more warnings," said Detective Larry McKinnon, Hillsborough sheriff's spokesman.

Same with Pinellas.

"We're very aware of some of the cost," said spokeswoman Marianne Pasha. "If there is an opportunity to write a warning, rather than write a citation, that's what we'll do."

In many cases, deputies won't write multiple citations like they did in the past. If someone with a clean driving record is caught speeding without wearing a seat belt, McKinnon said, they'll be cited for a seat belt violation.

"We're more tolerant," he said. "People have lost their jobs and are struggling. A lot of times you'll see families in the car. How do you write someone a $700 ticket when they have a carload of kids?"

Empathy comes with a price.

Pinellas is on track to write 2,000 fewer tickets than it did two years ago. Hillsborough tickets dropped by 40,000 from 2008 to 2010. Not all of that stemmed from deputies waiving tickets, McKinnon said.

The other reason also is economic: There are fewer deputies out there writing tickets.

In St. Petersburg, police are handing out more tickets than ever, but fewer people are paying, said Lt. William Korinek, who oversees traffic enforcement.

"People are saying that the tickets are too expensive," Korinek said. "For the most part, they're not criminals. They're people like you and me, average people going about their day. "

On a recent Tuesday, Chris Robinson, a retired 64-year-old, was running errands when he was stopped for speeding.

He was going 48 mph in a 35 mph zone. The fine: $206.

"I can't pay it," Robinson said as his shoulders sagged and he cradled his face in his hand. "I'm on a fixed income. It's going to kill me."

Fined drivers can pay the full sum within 30 days, or spread the fine out in six monthly installments.

An increasingly popular option: People can work off the debt with community service.

"Economic conditions are driving that," said Hazel Bure, director of the court and operational services at the Pinellas County Clerk of Court. "The traffic fines are very high."

Drivers calculate the hours they need to work for a nonprofit by dividing the fine by the $7.25 hourly minimum wage. A $206 fine would be almost 29 hours. The fine isn't waived until the courts get a verification letter from the nonprofit.

The option is a boon to groups like Habitat for Humanity. Since 2008, the nonprofit has seen the number of people volunteering to pay off tickets double to about 12 a week, said Kevin Klucas, the group's volunteer coordinator.

"It works well for us, and hopefully becomes a good experience for them, too," Klucas said.

While some turn the experience into a productive one, officials say others let a ticket disrupt their lives. If a fine isn't paid, a motorist's driver's license is suspended, a misdemeanor that can mean going to jail. The state doesn't track the number of suspended licenses, but some law enforcement officers say there has been a rise.

A look at Pinellas County jail records show that more than 7,000 people were processed for that charge since 2005.

The majority of those were people arrested on the charge for the second or third time.

• • •

During rush hour last week, Steffek and fellow St. Petersburg Officer Chris Dort stopped more than a dozen drivers in two hours. Nearly everyone fretted about the fine.

"I work hard and make just enough to pay my bills," said Bob Samples, a 47-year-old restaurant worker facing a $206 speeding ticket. John Zurek was looking at $256 for going 17 mph over the limit. A 20-year-old St. Petersburg College student who recently quit his job at a sandwich shop, Zurek said he didn't know where he'd get the money.

Whatever strain motorists are feeling, it may only get worse.

St. Petersburg officials are installing red light cameras to catch offenders and will likely start handing out $158 tickets this summer. Hillsborough County already does. Tampa soon will.

"I feel bad for some of these drivers," Dort said. "People are busy. They're running around, trying to make ends meet. It's real rough out there."



Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Double Digit Inflation has Arrived
USAWatchdog ^ | 16 May 2011 | Greg Hunter




New inflation figures were released by the government last week, and the news was not good. The headline inflation number was 3.2% in the 12 months that ended in April. That is more than a percent above the Federal Reserve’s “target” rate of 2% and the first time it has been more than 3% in over than 2 ½ years. Of course, the accounting gimmicks used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) understate true inflation, so things look better than reality. Nonetheless, in the latest report from economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com, even the government’s own “official” numbers will likely show double digit inflation in the next three months or so. The reason is continued money printing in the form of another round of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Fed to prop up the struggling economy. Williams said, “The underlying pace of official inflation is accelerating, and could move into double-digits in third-quarter 2011. Preceding or coincident with that likely will have been some move to QE3 by the Fed and intense—if not panicked—selling of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Such a circumstance could be a base from which a hyperinflation might begin to unfold with some rapidity.”

And get this, inflation is already in double digits, according to Williams, if it was calculated the way BLS did it more than 30 years ago. Williams said, “. . . based on reporting of 1980, the April 2011 annual inflation rate would have been about 10.7%.” But, the double digit inflation story is not the one the mainstream media likes to tell. Instead, it usually focuses on what the government calls “core” inflation that excludes food and energy. The “core” inflation rate is .2%. Who lives in a world where the core of existence is not food and energy?


(Excerpt) Read more at usawatchdog.com ...


Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Poll shows Americans getting more pessimistic on economy, want spending cuts
Hotair ^ | May 16,2011 | Edward Morrissey




And in other news, water is wet. Anyone paying attention to the polls will not see any significant change over the last few months. Voters don’t want new taxes, and they are more worried now than last year about economic retreat:

Forty-six percent of voters say they feel worse off than they did a year ago, almost three times as many as the 16 percent who feel more affluent. Around one-third of voters — 36 percent — say their economic situation has remained essentially unchanged from 12 months ago. …

Voters don’t want to see taxes increased in response to the growing fiscal pressures facing the nation, the poll also indicated. Instead, they prefer significant cuts to government spending as a remedy.

Presented with a menu of choices to help curb the national debt and federal deficit, almost half of voters — 45 percent — support spending cuts alone, the poll indicates. By contrast, only 13 percent favor an even split between cutting spending and raising revenue through tax increases.

By a margin of two-to-one, respondents also said they would be unwilling to see any increase in their own tax rates even if this helped reduce the debt and deficits. Only 28 percent said they would be prepared to pay higher taxes, while 56 percent said they would not.

In fact, respondents narrowly support lowering taxes as a stimulus, 45/39. The poll splits evenly between Democrats and Republicans on which party gets more trust on economic policy, but that won’t last long if Democrats put forth a tax-hike budget plan, especially along the lines of the Senate’s notion of 50/50 deficit reduction between spending cuts and tax hikes. Only 13% of respondents backed that notion, with another 11% supporting a 2/1 split for spending cuts to tax hikes, and 15% for a 3/1 split.

Boehner declaring tax hikes “off the table” is a politically strong position for Republicans to take. In the fight over the debt limit, the national mood for spending cuts will force Democrats to give a lot of ground to the GOP if they want a raise in the debt ceiling. That will still depend on GOP courage to fight for the best deal they can cut. Having declared tax hikes off the table, Boehner has to be careful to avoid a “read my lips” moment in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, Gallup’s latest poll shows that economic pessimism is accelerating:

Three in four Americans name some type of economic issue as the “most important problem” facing the country today — the highest net mentions of the economy in two years. …

General economic concerns (35%) and unemployment (22%) are the specific issues currently at the forefront of Americans’ minds. The percentage mentioning the economy in general is up significantly from 26% in April, while unemployment is up just slightly from 19%.

Twelve percent of Americans mention the federal budget deficit or federal debt as the nation’s most important problem, down from 17% in April, although still high on a historical basis. The April reading was the highest Gallup found since 1996.

The highest non-economic concern garnered all of 8%, tied for second-to-last among economic concerns, and that was dissatisfaction with the current political class — which is likely to have been aggravated by the poor economic performance. The next one down was health care at 5%, tied for dead last among economic concerns with “lack of money.” Interestingly but not surprisingly, there isn’t a single environmental concern on the list, and the wars are tied for last at 4%.

When America goes to the polls in 2012, the economy will decide the election — and right now, that’s very bad news for Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress.

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Lurker please feel free to refute any post in this thread.   

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 39387
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fell in April 
 
(Bloomberg) Housings starts in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in April as home builders continued to struggle almost two years into an economic recovery.

Work began on 523,000 houses at an annual pace, down 11 percent from the prior month and less than the 569,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also decreased.

Falling home values and the prospect of more foreclosures entering the market mean home construction will be slow to gain traction. Unemployment at 9 percent and stagnant wages indicate any recovery in housing may take years to unfold.

“Job growth is essential to household formation and to keep home prices from falling further,” said Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York, who forecast permits at 550,000. “I don’t see home sales doing much of anything” for the foreseeable future. .............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-17/u-s-housing-st...