Misery Index: The Obama Depression - "Private sector doing just Fine"

[Soul Crusher]

Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise, Manufacturing Gets Weaker
Published: Thursday, 15 Sep 2011 | 8:37 AM
www.CNBC.com
 

Applications for unemployment benefits continued to rise in the past week, while inflation pushed higher and a key manufacturing index weakened.

 
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The weekly jobless claims number, which is closely watched as an indicator for employment trends, unexpectedly rose 11,000 to 428,000, well ahead of estimates of 411,000.


The consumer price index, meanwhile, gained 0.4 percent when including volatile food and energy prices, after an increase of 0.5 percent in July. The so-called core CPI, though, gained 0.2 percent, which was in line with expectations.

Consumers paid more for a range of goods and services last month, pushing up inflation and squeezing Americans' purchasing power.

For the 12 months ending in August, the core index surged 2 percent, the biggest year-over-year increase in nearly three years. That's at the top end of the Federal Reserve's informal inflation  target. It could limit the central bank's ability to take further steps to try to revive the economy.

Food prices rose 0.5 percent, the biggest increase since March. That was due to higher prices for cereals and dairy products. Energy costs increased 1.2 percent.

Other indicators from a major government data release this moring also were not not encouraging: New York manufacturing activity contracted in September for the fourth consecutive month.

Also, the US current account deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $118 billion in the second quarter from a revised $119.6 billion in the first quarter as exports hit a record high.


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As a percentage of gross domestic product, the current account deficit—which measures the flow of goods, services and investments in and out of the US—narrowed to 3.1 percent in the second quarter from 3.2 percent in the first quarter.

Exports of goods and services rose to $716.7 billion, eclipsing the previous high set in the second quarter of 2008.

Economists had been expecting the current account gap to widen to $122.5 billion from a previously reported $119.3 billion.

Jobs Market Languishing

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level in three months.

Applications have been rising over the past month, a signal that the job market remains depressed.

Applications typically drop during short work weeks, as was the case with the Labor Day observation. In this case, applications didn't drop as much as the department expected, so the seasonally adjusted value rose. A Labor spokesman said the total wasn't affected by Hurricane Irene.

Still, applications appear to be trending up. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the fourth straight week to 419,500.

Applications need to fall below 375,000 to indicate that hiring is increasing enough to lower the unemployment rate. They haven't been below that level since February.

The economy added zero net jobs in August, the worst showing since September 2010. The unemployment rate stayed at 9.1 percent for the second straight month.

The job figures were weak because companies hired fewer workers and not because they stepped up layoffs, economists said. Business and consumer confidence fell last month after a series of events renewed recession fears.

The government reported that the economy barely grew in the first half of the year. Lawmakers fought over raising the debt ceiling. Standard & Poor's downgraded long-term U.S. debt for the first time in history. Stocks tumbled—the Dow lost nearly 16 percent of its value from July 21 through Aug. 10.

Businesses added only 17,000 jobs in August, which was a sharp drop from 156,000 in July. Government cut 17,000 jobs. Combined, total net payrolls did not change.

Unemployment benefit applications are considered a measure of the pace of layoffs.

The total number of people receiving benefits dipped 12,000 to 3.73 million, the third straight decline. But that doesn't include about 3.4 million additional people receiving extended benefits under emergency programs put in place during the recession. All told, about 7.14 million people received benefits for the week ending Aug. 27, the latest data available.

More jobs are desperately needed to fuel faster economic growth. Higher employment leads to more income. That boosts consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic growth.

Higher gas and food prices have cut into their buying power this year. The economy expanded at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent, the slowest growth since the recession officially ended two years ago.

The weakness has raised pressure on the Federal Reserve and the White House to take steps to boost economic growth.

Many economists expect they will decide at its meeting next week to shift money out of short-term mortgage-backed securities and into longer-term Treasury bonds. The move could push down longer-term interest rates, including rates on mortgages, auto loans and other consumer and business borrowing.

President Barack Obama has proposed a $447 billion job-creation package. He wants to cut Social Security taxes for workers, extend unemployment benefits, cut taxes for small businesses and spend more federal money to build roads, bridges and other public works projects.

Republicans oppose the president's plan, particularly after he said he wants to pay for it with higher taxes on wealthier households, hedge fund managers and oil companies.

© 2011 CNBC.com


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HOPE AND FUCKING CHANGE! 

[Soul Crusher]

NY manufacturing activity dips again: Fourth straight negative monthly reading (-8.
Marketwatch ^ | 9.15.11 | Greg Robb



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Manufacturing activity in the New York region weakened again in September, according to data released Thursday, raising fresh concern over the strength of the factory sector in the third quarter.

The Empire State index decreased slightly to negative 8.8 in September from negative 7.7 in August, according to the manufacturing survey released by the New York Federal Reserve. This is the fourth month in negative territory.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the index to improve to negative 4.0.


(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


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[Soul Crusher]

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/09/14/billions-in-unemployment-benefits-paid-in-error/tab/print


Billions in Unemployment Benefits Paid in Error.

Nearly $19 billion in state unemployment benefits were paid in error during the three years that ended in June, new Labor Department data show.


Source: Labor Department
Click image for a full-size interactive mapThe amount represents more than 10% of the $180 billion in jobless benefits paid nationwide during the period. (See a sortable chart of each states’ overpayments) The tally covers state programs, which offer benefits for up to 26 weeks, from July 2008 to June 2011. Layers of federal programs that help provide benefits for up to 99 weeks weren’t included.

The figures were released Wednesday as the Obama administration promotes its bid to reduce waste at federal agencies. The federal government foots the bill for administering the programs, and states are supposed to pay for the benefits. Many states exhausted their unemployment insurance trust funds during the long recession and slow recovery, prompting them to borrow from the federal government to replenish their funds.

Improper payments most often occur when recipients claim benefits even though they have returned to work; employers or their administrators don’t submit timely or accurate information about worker separations; or recipients don’t correctly register with a state’s employment-service organization.

The Labor Department launched a plan to crack down on the improper payments, targeting Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Washington, Louisiana and Arizona in particular for their high error rates. Those states will undergo additional monitoring and technical assistance until their error rates dip below 10% and remain there for at least six months, according to the Labor Department.

“The Unemployment Insurance system is a unique partnership between the federal government and the states. States bear the responsibility of operating an efficient and effective benefits program, but as partners the federal government must be able to hold them accountable for doing so,” Labor Secretary Hilda Solis said in a release.

Indiana had the highest error rate, with improper payments accounting for more than 43% of the total amount paid. But Mark Everson, commissioner of the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, said the differences in error rates stem from variations in state programs.

“To characterize it as waste, fraud and abuse is just manipulative,” Mr. Everson said. “There’s no way in the world you could cut the 43% of people off.”

Mr. Everson pointed out that in Indiana, benefit recipients are required to list three work searches. If a recipient fills out only two of the three searches correctly, there are cases when the recipient can still receive benefits. But that counts as an error.

The Labor Department noted, “it may be misleading to compare one state’s payment accuracy rates with another state’s rates… States with stringent or complex provisions tend to have higher improper payment rates than those with simpler, more straightforward provisions.”

Follow Sara Murray on twitter at @SaraMurray

[Soul Crusher]

Updated 9/16/11 11:29 a.m.
Posted 9/15/11 12:56 p.m.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WLS) - Illinois' unemployment rate shot up almost half a percentage point in August to 9.9 percent. It was a fourth straight month of diminishing job prospects that state officials blame on weak consumer confidence and the struggles of the national economy.




Even the state's manufacturing sector, which had been a bright spot even as other types of employers shed jobs the past few months, cut employment in August.

Illinois' unemployment rate surged up from 9.5 percent in July but has been increasing since it was at 8.7 percent in May, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security. The national jobless rate held steady in August at 9.1 percent.

"We know that consumer confidence drives our economy, and that confidence has been shaken across our country," Department of Employment Security spokesman Greg Rivara said. "So it is a challenge for any state to sustain positive momentum while the national economy remains so uncertain."

Nationally, pessimism about the economy increased sharply in August, according to the Conference Board, the private group that surveys Americans every month about consumer confidence. The board's monthly index fell more than 14 percent.

The number of unemployed people in Illinois actively looking for work increased in August by 25,400 to 653,000, the department said. That's an increase of 4 percent.

The biggest job losses in August were the 2,800 jobs cut by government employers and the decrease in manufacturing employment by 1,000 jobs.

The government jobs lost were almost entirely at the local level, Rivara said.

Local governments continue to struggle with tight finances, driven down both by decreasing tax revenues and the state's troubles finances. Illinois' government is months behind on payments to local governments and institutions around the state because of its ongoing multibillion-dollar budget deficit.

In all, Illinois has shed about 12,000 government jobs since May, down to 843,300, or 1.4 percent. Rivara wasn't sure how many of those jobs may have belonged school employees who don't work over the summer.

Manufacturing had been a bright spot as unemployment inched up over the summer, with Illinois-based companies such as Caterpillar and Deere continuing to prosper on strong exports.

Food production and auto manufacturing have both been strong, too, said Jim Nelson, vice president of the Illinois Manufacturers Association. But even some strong categories of manufacturers have begun to see sales flatten.

"When we have a net loss of a thousand over the month, there's more cause for concern than there is optimism," he said.

Gov. Pat Quinn plans to leave Friday on a trade mission to China intended to boost Illinois export prospects, for raw agricultural goods such as soybeans but also other sectors of the state's economy.

Talking about that trip Friday in Chicago, the governor said the state's economy and the confidence of its businesses and its residents has been battered by the uncertainty created by events in Washington such as the debate over raising the nation's debt ceiling but also economic problems in European countries such as Greece.

"I think everyone knows that it was a rough summer," he said. "It has been a turbulent year for the world economy and all of us are affected by it."

Illinois' summer job losses are translating into tough times for people already struggling, said Jason Greenly, a supervisor at The TIME Center, a homeless shelter and soup kitchen in Champaign.

Demands on the center's soup kitchen have increased the past few months, he said.

"The curve is definitely going upwards," he said. "Of those who are able to work, the challenge is there's just less work to be had."

Among sectors that increased employment in August, according to the Department of Employment Security, the state's professional and businesses services companies, which include banks, added 2,200 jobs. Construction employers added 1,000 jobs.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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[Soul Crusher]

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, Offering Glimmer of Hope [423K new, last week rev up 432K]
Reuters/CNBC.com ^ | September 22, 2011



Applications for unemployment benefits slipped to 423,000 in the week ending Sept. 17 from an upwardly revised 432,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.


(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


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Glimmer of hope? 

LMFAO!!!

[Soul Crusher]

1740s Tavern Becomes Victim of Recession

The Marlborough Tavern will close on Saturday.By Ryan Hanrahan |  Thursday, Sep 22, 2011  |  Updated 8:26 AM EDTView Comments (113)
| Email| Print 

advertisement Since 1740, the Marlborough Tavern has been a fixture of this small town southeast of Hartford, but it will close this weekend.

The establishment, which has operated off and on as a tavern and restaurant, has been a host to presidents and even the French army during the Revolutionary War, but Saturday will be the tavern's last day until a new owner is found.

Jim Bradley took over the restaurant in 1985 with three friends. The building had been vacant since the previous owner closed the place in 1979. After a rough start, "the whole thing took off," Bradley said.

For nearly two decades, the Marlborough Tavern prospered near the center of town off Route 2. When gas prices spiked several summers ago, business took a big hit.

"It fell right off a cliff. It went down from June 2008 to July 2008," Bradley recalled.

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Weird News Photos More Multimedia He and a co-owner put money into the business to keep it afloat for the last three years, but with business down nearly a third, it became too much.

Bradley said losing food after Tropical Storm Irene disrupted his cash flow too much that he needed to shut the tavern's doors.

"Emotionally, it takes a toll after awhile when you realize you've been swimming hard against the tide," Bradley said.

Customers were surprised to hear about the landmark closing. Many assumed that the tavern would be in Marlborough forever.

"This is one of the places we come all the time and I can't believe it's not going to be here anymore," said Karen Pietrusziewicz, who met her husband at the tavern years ago.

Bradley said he's not sure what he's going to do yet after Saturday.

"I'll just join the 20 or 30 million other Americans in the same boat," he said.

The Marlborough Tavern will remain open through dinner on Saturday and then they will hold an auction to sell off antiques, bar, and restaurant supplies on Tuesday.

[OzmO]

Stories like this have Played out all over America for the last 10 years.  If people would start choosing family owned business over chains more places like this would still be around.

[Soul Crusher]

ROUBINI: Recession Is At This Point Unavoidable, And It Could Be Worse Than 2008
Business Insider ^ | 09/22/2011 | Gus Lubin



Nouriel Roubini is calling it this morning, following a bout of dismal economic data around the world. Europe and the U.S. are "effectively in recession" and there's nothing policy makers can do to save them.

@Nouriel tweets:

Economy already in recession. Whatever the Fed does now is too little too late

UK in double dip @MarkitEconomics: CBI Trends total orders at -9 in. UK Man PMI highlights real weakness in order books twitpic.com/6onoto

EZ in recession @MarkitEconomics: Flash Eurozone Composite PMI comes in below consensus for the 4th time in past 5 mths twitpic.com/6oneor

China slowing @MarkitEconomics: release saw HSBC Flash China Man PMI remain <50 at 49.4 (Aug:49.9).


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

El-Erian: World on Eve of Next Financial Crisis
By Shamim Adam - Sep 22, 2011



The world is on the eve of the next financial crisis, with sovereign debt its epicenter, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the biggest bond fund.

The European Central Bank hasn’t put in place a “circuit breaker” to contain the region’s debt crisis, El-Erian, who is also Pimco’s co-chief investment officer, said at an event in Washington today.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 are meeting in Washington this weekend as markets tumble on concern the world economy is slowing and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis threatens to spread beyond Greece. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 4.6 percent to 214.89 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the lowest since July 2009.

“There has been a significant increase in the financial requirements of international intervention,” El-Erian said. “You need a lot more firepower in order to be a circuit breaker. Look at how much the ECB has put in and ask yourself the question: has it created a circuit breaker? The answer is no, even though the amounts involved have been massive.”

French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said the G-20 nations will coordinate a response to the European sovereign debt crisis. Baroin, speaking to reporters today in Washington, said European nations must approve a July 21 accord on further financial aid to Greece.

Greek Budget Cuts
The Greek government said today it will accelerate budget cuts to keep emergency loans flowing, extending austerity measures that have deepened a recession and failed to ease doubts that it can avoid default. The latest round of deficit fighting was demanded by international lenders to ensure Greece reaches targets in a 110 billion-euro ($151 billion) bailout and receive a payment due next month.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the global economy is “in a danger zone,” and his counterpart at the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, said “downside risks” are high.

“We’re in it together and we will be able to solve it together,” Lagarde, a former French finance minister, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said Europe will act “with more force” to combat its debt crisis.

In the U.S., stocks tumbled on concern central banks are running out of tools to prevent another recession and after the Federal Reserve said yesterday it saw “significant downside risks” to the economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.9 percent to 1,133.09 at 12:51 p.m. on New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Washington at sadam2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Badertscher at pbadertscher@bloomberg.net
.

[Soul Crusher]

Disability claims by the unemployed skyrocketing
Sun Sentinel ^ | 09/24/11 | Sally Kestin



Laid-off workers desperate for money, many of them aging baby boomers, are flooding South Florida Social Security offices like never before to apply for disability benefits.

Demand is so great nationwide that congressional estimates show the disability program will run out of money and won't be able to cover all beneficiaries in just six years.

n Florida, applications are up more than 40 percent since 2007. Many are coming from people with mental or physical conditions who once were able to work and now can't, or who lost their job and are unable to find a new one.


(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...


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[Soul Crusher]

Long Lines At State Offices For Low-Income Aid; Confusion About Food Stamps

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Long lines formed early Monday at state Department of Social Services field offices, as low-income residents sought one-time payments for losses they had in Tropical Storm Irene. (SCOTT VARGAS/FOX CT / September 26, 2011)

 
Waterbury By JANICE PODSADA AND HILDA MUNOZ, jpodsada@courant.com
 
The Hartford Courant
 
1:55 p.m. EDT, September 26, 2011
Long lines formed early Monday morning outside state Department of Social Services field offices, as low-income residents sought one-time payments for losses incurred during Tropical Storm Irene.

By mid-morning Monday, more than 400 people stood in line outside the DSS office on North Main Street, next to the Connecticut Works center. The office is one of 12 statewide where state officials are distributing ATM-style cards allowing people to make approved purchases.

But many of those standing in the long, snaking line early Monday said it wasn't clear who was eligible for the one-time payments or who needed to stand in line. Information was not readily available to applicants until they reached the front of the line, a two to four hour wait.

The program is not available for recipients of food stamps, which is the regular Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Eligible food stamp clients are already receiving disaster aid under another program and do not need to apply in person.


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Despite that, many of the people waiting in line Monday, including Taushanin Valle, were regular food stamp recipients. Valle, a waitress who recently moved to Manchester, said she was away from her Hartford apartment during the tropical storm, and had left her windows open. Carpets and clothing was damaged and the food in her refrigerator spoiled after her building lost power.

At 10 a.m. Valle said she had been on line for about two hours. Valle said she had heard that the program is not for food stamp clients, but she said a friend on food stamps had received $375. She shrugged her shoulders and said, "We'll see….I'm still going to give it a try."

Shantae Ortiz, 32, a food stamp recipient, got to the front of the line only to be told that she did not need to have stood in line. "It's only for people who don't receive food stamps," Ortiz, a single mother, began telling others.

"This is for the people who don't receive food stamps. If you already get them, you will see the relief on your benefits card," Ortiz said.

About noon, a woman with End Hunger CT! began distributing fliers explaining the program's rules and requirements to those standing in line. When it became clear that there weren't enough fliers to go around, the woman told people to "share this information."

A spokesman for the Connecticut Department of Social Services said this is the first time the state has offered disaster SNAP benefits and DSS wasn't sure what the response would be.

"I don't think we've ever seen anything like this at our offices," David Dearborn, the agency's spokesman said.

"We've had to send reinforcements to our regional offices to help with the number of applications," Dearborn said.

"We have people who used to be eligibility specialists, trainers, hearing officers, staff who work in other parts of the agency have been dispatched to regional offices to try to keep up with the applications," he said.

He said the number of applicants has built up over the past few days. Last Wednesday the first day, the agency had 451 applicants statewide.

Thursday the number of applicants rose to 1,292 applicants and by Friday, the tally was 1,949.

They've had 3,701 applicants statewide, but the number doesn't include today's applicants nor does it include "rain checks," given to people who didn't get to apply by the end of the day.

The offices are accepting applications from 8:30 until 3:30 pm., but Dearborn says lines have started well before 8:30 a.m.

He said lines have formed at most, if not all of the agency's 12 offices, with major cities like New Haven, Bridgeport, Manchester, Waterbury and Hartford reporting the longest lines.

People already enrolled in SNAP are not eligible because there is already a process in place to help them. This is for people who are not enrolled in SNAP who incurred losses related to Tropical Storm Irene.

But information and apparently misinformation about the federal government storm relief program spread rapidly through word-of-mouth and on Facebook over the weekend.

"Somebody went and got some money and posted it on Facebook," Jones said "And you know how many people are on Facebook."

Jessica Dejesus, of Manchester, said she had received the one-time disaster aid on her most recent her food stamp allotment.

"On my card they just added an extra $50 for storm relief," said Dejesus said, who said she was waiting for a friend.

Millie Jones, of Bloomfield, hoped to receive a storm relief payment for the two weeks' worth of groceries that spoiled when the electricity went out in her home. Jones is not currently receiving food stamps, so she needed to stand in line to be eligible for compensation.

"I lost power for three days. I just need enough to cover what I lost — about $200. I don't have any receipts. Who keeps receipts?" said Jones, 49, a certified nursing assistant.

The assistance, under a federal program called Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP), offers aid ranging from $200 for a single adult to $952 for a family of six, the department said. Tuesday is the last day for people to apply.

Although the program is financed through the federal food assistance agency, eligible expenses can include loss of income, medical costs, child care or repair or replacement of property — as long as no insurance or other disaster relief also covered the same losses.

To be eligible for the one-time D-SNAP aid, applicants must have a combination of take-home income and bank accounts for the period from Aug. 27 to Sept. 25 that does not exceed $2,186 for a single person; $2,847 for a household of two; $3,272 for a household of three; and $3,859 for a household of four. The income counted includes public assistance.

More information is available at http://www.ct.gov/dss or by calling 2-1-1.



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Comments (150)Add / View comments | Discussion FAQ
fitandfurious at 3:08 PM September 26, 2011
Judging by how overweight everyone is in the picture they don't need a handout.  Go on a diet and you will save enough money to pay for damages.  Make Michelle O. proud!
Mullah Mike at 3:08 PM September 26, 2011
I don't blame those welfare leeches that are in line. They are still leeches, but when they have something to grab on to... why wouldn't they do so?

It is the welfare system that is the problem. Good luck trying to get someone who is strong enough to pluck those leeches and use pumps to drain the pond they have made their home.
FrustratedDadinBurbs at 3:05 PM September 26, 2011
Poor comes in all colors, so why is that line lacking any, um, diversity?  I mean, is there even one person in that picture who is not AA?

Oh, and loving the, 'I left my windows open before fleeing town...because of the coming storm....and someone needs to pay for my stuff' excuse for a handout - living near Detroit, I'm very familiar with that type of in your face humility.



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[Soul Crusher]

These leeches need to be put on work farms.  They are unemployable in this economy and not going to do a damn thing.   

[Soul Crusher]

Report: Consumers spent less, earned less in 2010
Government survey shows consumer spending and incomes fell for 2nd straight year in 2010
 
tweet4EmailPrint.

Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, On Tuesday September 27, 2011, 11:41 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers earned less and spent less for a second straight year in 2010. The government data shows how Americans are struggling after the worst recession since the Great Depression.

The Labor Department says in its annual survey of consumer behavior that spending fell 2 percent last year, only the second decrease since the government began the survey in 1984.

People spent less last year on food, cut back on entertainment and eating in restaurants and gave less to charity. At the same time, they paid more for gas and health care -- trends that have continued this year.

Incomes fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after a 1.1 percent drop in 2009.

Consumer spending and income have increased only modestly this year.

[Soul Crusher]

Report: Friendly's prepares for bankruptcy
YahooFinance ^ | September 29, 2011 | staff reporter


NEW YORK (AP) -- The Friendly's restaurant chain is preparing for a possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing and potential sale, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people it said were familiar with the matter.

Friendly Ice Cream Corp., based in Wilbraham, Mass., operates more than 500 casual-dining restaurants known for sundaes and hamburgers. The chain could seek bankruptcy protection as soon as next week and then try to sell itself through a bankruptcy auction, according to the report.

Sun Capital Partners Inc. acquired Friendly's in 2007 and the private-equity firm is among its creditors.


(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Kodak shares plunge as bankruptcy fears escalate
YahooFinance ^ | Sep 30, 2011 | MICHAEL LIEDTK



Investors dumped Eastman Kodak's stock Friday amid fears that the photography pioneer is headed toward bankruptcy.

After its stock lost more than half its value in a volatile day of trading, Kodak tried to paint a rosier picture. "Kodak is committed to meeting all of its obligations and has no intention of filing for bankruptcy," the company said in a statement. The reassurance lifted Kodak shares in extended trading, but the rebound wasn't enough to undo the damage sustained in a brutal week for a hallowed name in U.S. business.


(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


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[Soul Crusher]

This Economist Is Forecasting A Recession, And He's Never Been Wrong
TMO ^ | 10-4-2011 | Money Morning
Posted on Wednesday, October 05, 2011 12:34:16 AM by blam



This Economist Is Forecasting A Recession, And He's Never Been Wrong

Economics / Double Dip Recession
Oct 04, 2011 - 07:03 AM
By: Money Morning


David Zeiler writes: The U.S. economy is "tipping into a new recession" and there's nothing President Barack Obama or the U.S. Federal Reserve can do to prevent it, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).



Now, if you're wondering why you should believe this prediction ahead of others then there's something you should know: According to The Economist, Achuthan's predictions on the direction of economy - either toward recession or recovery - have never been wrong.

"We don't make false alarms," Achuthan said, noting that ECRI did not forecast a recession last year when other prognosticators were.

A new recession could topple the stock markets into another deep funk like the one caused by the 2008-2009 downturn when the markets plummeted more than 50%.

The ECRI uses dozens of leading indexes to make its forecasts, and as of last week, Achuthan said those indicators were all pointing to a recession.

"We're seeing the weakness spread widely," Achuthan told MarketWatch. "There's a contagion...that's not going to be snuffed out. The nature of a recession is not a statistic. It's a vicious feedback loop. Sales fall, production falls, income falls and that depresses sales. We're in that and it's going to run its course."

Worse still, he doesn't think any governmental policy changes can prevent it.

"It is not reversible," Achuthan told Bloomberg Radio. "There is virtually nothing that can be done to avert what is going to happen."

The ECRI recession forecast landed last week amid some mildly positive economic news - the nation's gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised up from 1% to 1.3%, and initial jobless claims fell below 400,000 for the first time since early August, to 391,000.

But Achuthan dismissed such data along with sentiment from chief executives who have cited improving revenue and earnings.

"These leading indicators are objective," Achuthan said on CNBC. "They don't listen to all the hubbub. They have a certain pattern they present in front of a recession and that is in right now."

That sentiment mirrors what Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has been telling investors for weeks. Fitz-Gerald has been warned that the weakening economy will eventually result in a bear market that sends stocks hurling back towards March 2009 lows.

"There's nothing President Obama or Bernanke can do at this point," Fitz-Gerald said. "Our debt is once again a problem, our jobs situation stinks, our government is dysfunctional, and then, of course, there's Europe."

Prepare for More Recessions

Although it would seem too soon for a recession so quick on the heels of the last one, ECRI pointed out that shorter cycles are actually closer to the historic norm. In the 1799 to 1929 period, ECRI said almost 90% of U.S. economic expansions lasted three years or less.




Based on that, as well as a decades-long pattern of slowing growth and evidence of increasing economic volatility, ECRI predicts recessions will continue to hit more frequently in the years ahead.

When asked how severe this next recession is likely to be, Achuthan said that was "unknowable," although a major financial shock - such as a Greek default on its sovereign debt - would make things significantly worse.

"Back in the last recession in August of '08, prior to the Lehman debacle, these indicators were pointing to the worst global recession in 30 years," Achuthan said. "Then you had Lehman."

The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a global financial crisis that not only intensified that recession, it set the conditions for the weak recovery that followed.

Even absent such a shock, Achuthan predicted this recession will have dire consequences.

"It means the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar," Achuthan said. "If you think this is a bad economy, you haven't seen anything yet."

Don't Bail on the Market

Given the economy's bleak prognosis, it might be tempting to bail on stocks entirely. But Money Morning's Fitz-Gerald says there are five steps investors can take to protect their portfolios and eke out some gains, as well:

1. Sell Strategically:Sell into strength and capture profits using trailing stops that are gradually ratcheted up as the bounce begins. This will help you raise cash (that can be used to buy into the rebound when it eventually happens)

2. Hedge Your Bets: Usespecialized inverse funds to hedge downside risk that will accompany the rollover to the downside and rack up significant gains at the same time.

3. Consider Alternatives: Buy commodities - most notably gold and oil - on pullbacks. These alternative assets will help preserve the value of your portfolio as the markets roll over. Their value will accelerate dramatically when the world economy recovers - as it eventually will.

4. Think Globally: Put new money to work in so-called"glocal" stockswith fortress-like balance sheets, diversified revenue and experienced management. Not only will they help hedge the value of your portfolio, but by concentrating your focus on them you are building in upside potential even if we haven't hit a bottom. Those offering big dividends are best because that will help you keep pace with the inflation the government debt will ultimately induce.

5. Stay in the game:It's tempting to bail out given my prognosis for more downside, but attempting to time the markets is a fool's errand -- and never works. You just wind up getting skinned twice -- once on the way down and again because you were standing on the sidelines and got left behind when the markets ultimately reverse -- which they will.



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[Soul Crusher]

Census: Housing bust worst since Great Depression (Women and Minorities Hardest Hit)
AP ^ | 6 Oct 2011 | Hope Yen
Posted on October 6, 2011 9:16:30 PM EDT by SkyPilot

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The American dream of homeownership has felt its biggest drop since the Great Depression, according to new 2010 census figures released Thursday.

The analysis by the Census Bureau found the homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent last year. While that level remains the second highest decennial rate, analysts say the U.S. may never return to its mid-decade housing boom peak in which nearly 70 percent of occupied households were owned by their residents.

The reason: a longer-term economic reality of tighter credit, prolonged job losses and reduced government involvement.

Unemployed young adults are least likely to own, delaying first-time home purchases to live with Mom and Dad. Middle-aged adults 35-64, mostly homeowners who were hit with mortgage foreclosures or bankruptcy after the housing bust in 2006, are at their lowest levels of ownership in decades.

Measured by race, the homeownership gap between whites and blacks is now at its widest since 1960, wiping out more than 40 years of gains.

"The changes now taking place are mind-boggling: the housing market has completely crashed and attitudes toward housing are shifting from owning to renting," said Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insight. "While 10 years ago owning a home was the American Dream, I'm not sure a lot of people still think that way."

He noted the now-diminished roles of mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which for decades at the urging of government helped enable loans to borrowers with poor credit, many of them minorities. In a shift, the Obama administration earlier this year said it would move from a longtime government focus on promoting homeownership for all and instead steer people with low incomes toward renting where appropriate.

(Excerpt) Read more at hosted.ap.org ...

[Soul Crusher]

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A job is becoming a dim memory for many unemployed
AP/WorldMag ^ | Oct 6, 10:46 PM EDT | CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER
Posted on October 6, 2011 11:00:36 PM EDT by quantim

WASHINGTON (AP) -- For more Americans, being out of work has become a semi-permanent condition.

Nearly one-third of the unemployed - nearly 4.5 million people - have had no job for a year or more. That's a record high. Many are older workers who have found it especially hard to find jobs.

And economists say their prospects won't brighten much even after the economy starts to strengthen and hiring picks up. Even if they can find a job, it will likely pay far less than their old ones did.

The outlook is unlikely to improve on Friday, when the government issues its monthly jobs report. Economists predict it will show that employers added a net 56,000 jobs in September.

That's far fewer than needed to reduce unemployment. The unemployment rate is expected to remain 9.1 percent for a third straight month.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week called long-term unemployment a "national crisis" and said it should be one of Congress' top priorities.

(Excerpt) Read more at hosted.ap.org ...

[Soul Crusher]

Home ownership: Biggest drop since Great Depression
CNNMoney ^ | 10/7/2011 | Les Christie



NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The percentage of Americans who owned their homes has seen its biggest decline since the Great Depression, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The rate of home ownership fell to 65.1% in April 2010, 1.1 percentage points lower than it was in 2000. The decline was the biggest drop since the 1930s, when home ownership plunged 4.2%.

The most recent decade-over-decade drop, however, only tells half the story.

Home ownership during the 2000s "was really high in the middle of the decade, up to almost 70% at one point around 2004," said Ellen Wilson, a survey statistician with the bureau.

The crash from that peak was more than 4 percentage points in just about five years -- a far more dramatic decline than the 1.1% drop over the 10-year period.


(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...


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[Soul Crusher]

Our Rundown Of Obama's Failing Foreclosure Programs
Lois Beckett, ProPublica | Oct. 7, 2011, 1:53 PM | 197 | 4


 
More than six million Americans are behind on their mortgage payments or facing foreclosure [1]. Housing prices have continued to drop [2], and many neighborhoods across the U.S. are filled with foreclosed homes [3].

What exactly has the administration done in the face of such historic need?

We've put together a guide to the administration's major efforts to help homeowners, laying out the promise of each and how they've actually performed.

It's a sobering list. Obama himself has called his approach to the foreclosure crisis one of his biggest mistakes [4] dealing with the recession. Overall, the foreclosure programs have failed to reach more than a fraction of the homeowners they were designed to help.

Here are the depressing details:

Programs That Have Been Enacted

Plan: Help millions of homeowners by encouraging servicers to lower mortgage payments

Obama launched his "homeowner bailout," Making Home Affordable [5], in the spring of 2009, with the aim of helping at least 3 to 4 million homeowners avoid foreclosure. The program gives banks and other mortgage servicers modest incentives to adjust the terms of mortgages so that homeowners who can't afford their current monthly payments can stay in their homes.

Reality: Mistakes, lost documents, lax oversight; billions remain unspent

As we've detailed, the program has been marked by deep dysfunction [6]. Mortgage servicers mishandled cases, made errors and lost documents, while government watchdogs looked on and did almost nothing [7]. In one case, a government auditor found that mortgage servicer GMAC had made errors on 80 percent of audited cases -- but kept the failure secret. GMAC said it never reversed a single foreclosure action as a result of the sobering audit results [8].

Meanwhile, as of August, only about 816,000 homeowners [9] have received loan modifications through HAMP, or fewer than one in four of those who applied [9]. The government is on track to spend only about $7 billion of the $45.6 billion in bailout funds [10] set aside to help homeowners. As a result, nearly $30 billion meant to address the foreclosure crisis may instead ultimately be used to pay down the deficit [10].

Plan: Allow millions of homeowners to refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates

Launched in 2009, the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) was designed to allow some homeowners to take advantage of this year's historically low interest rates [11] and refinance their loans. The administration estimated "up to 4 to 5 million" homeowners [12] would be able to take part. In his jobs speech in early September [13], Obama promised to work with federal agencies to make this option available to more people.

Reality: May not help the hardest-hit, and a government regulator stands in the way of change

As of this June, just 838,000 homeowners had refinanced through the program [14]. While Obama promised to increase the number [15] of homeowners in the program, the government regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may make this difficult [14]. While refinancing is good for homeowners, it means more risk for taxpayer-owned Fannie and Freddie, which own or guarantee 5 million mortgages that are higher than the value of the home [16].

Meanwhile, even if Obama succeeds in giving more homeowners access to the program, refinancing may not do much to address the underlying crisis [17]. "Anything that is called a 2018refinancing' program is just a joke," a member of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys told iWatch News [18].

Plan: Loan money to jobless homeowners so they can avoid foreclosure

The $1 billion Emergency Homeowners' Loan Program [19] introduced last year aimed to reach 30,000 families [20]. It offered interest-free federal loans of up to $50,000 [21] to qualifying homeowners who had lost income because of unemployment or a medical condition.

Reality: Slow start, few people qualified, at least half of money left unused

The program, which only got off the ground this June [20], had a deadline of Sept. 30 to give out money to eligible homeowners before returning unused funds to the treasure. As CNN Money reported, its success was hampered by delays and a tangle of stringent requirements [21]. A spokesman from the Housing Department, which ran the program, said earlier this week that -- at best -- the program would only succeed in loaning out half the allotted money [21]. Only 10,000 to 15,000 of the roughly 100,000 applicants qualified for the loans.

Plan: Give money to states to experiment with programs for homeowners

In February 2010, the government promised $7.6 billion [22] to finance innovative programs to deal with foreclosures in states hardest-hit by the crisis [23].

In Arizona, for instance, where nearly half of homeowners [24] with mortgages owe more than their homes are worth, the state housing department launched a loan reduction program that they hoped would aid 3,500 to 4,000 homeowners [25].

Reality: Only a small fraction of the money has been used

As of this July, only $478 million of the government's $7.6 billion [22] had been actually loaned, used or spent, and some states who implemented new programs have struggled with their enrollment levels.

For instance, as the New York Times reported yesterday, in the first year of the Arizona program, the state only approved three homeowners [24] for the reduction. The problem? Banks declined to participate, even though the state was willing to pay half the cost [24] -- and taxpayer-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have also been an obstacle [24].

The Road Not Taken

Promise Undelivered: Giving bankruptcy judges the power to lower mortgage payments

During his campaign, Obama promised to change bankruptcy laws [26] to give judges the authority to lower mortgage payments -- a tactic called "cramdown." Democrats pushed for the change after Obama's election, but Obama's economic advisers were privately dismissive of the plan [26], and Obama's promised support never came. With the administration silent, and banks fighting hard against the change, the measure was voted down [26].

Popular Idea: Reducing the amount people owe on 'underwater' mortgages

With millions of homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are now worth, one popular proposal for dealing with the financial crisis is principal reduction [27], or asking banks to adjust the total amount owed on a mortgage based on the post-bubble value of a home. The idea is controversial, since some economists argue it would create an incentive for borrowers to take out riskier loans in the future.

But it is also seen as a way to address one of key underlying factors of the housing crisis: that American mortgage-holders owe an estimated $700 billion to $800 billion more than their homes are actually worth.

Because the American people ultimately own or guarantee the majority of the country's home loans through taxpayer-owned Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, a government-approved program of principal reduction could have an enormous impact [24], even without buy-in from other mortgage servicers.

But the federal regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has refused to consider principal reduction, because it would be bad for Fannie and Freddie's bottom line. (They are still $141 billion in the red after a taxpayer bailout [28].) Proponents of principal reduction argue that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have to deal with the decline in home values eventually [29] -- and by keeping losses off their books at the moment, Americans are losing their homes.

Back to the Drawing Board -- With Few Options Left

In July, President Obama noted that his administration had not made enough progress on dealing with the foreclosure crisis [30]. "We're going back to the drawing board," he said. But the administration's new proposals for tackling the crisis are modest. Part of the problem is that an estimated $30 billion in unused TARP money [10] from the previous foreclosure programs cannot be used to fund new programs [31].

Proposed Plan: Turning foreclosed homes into rental properties

This summer, the administration put out a call for proposals about how to turn foreclosed houses into rental properties [32], a way of simultaneously dealing with the glut of foreclosed properties and addressing the steeply rising price of rental units [33]. No version of the plan has been implemented yet, and the idea [34] itself has gotten mixed reviews [32].

Proposed Plan: Dedicating $15 billion to refurbish foreclosed and vacant properties

As part of his jobs bill [35], President Obama would spend $15 billion to refurbish vacant and foreclosed homes [35] or businesses, a way to help neighborhoods blighted by foreclosure, while also creating more construction jobs. Obama is pressing Congress to pass the bill quickly, but this seems unlikely to happen [36].

This post originally appeared at ProPublica.

Please follow Clusterstock on Twitter and Facebook.
Follow Lois Beckett on Twitter.

[Soul Crusher]

 

[Soul Crusher]

Obama--The Numbers Don't Lie
Townhall.com ^ | October 10, 2011 | Lurita Doan




Listening to President Obama speak to the Congressional Black Caucus about his past 32 months in office, two bizarre facts become apparent. First, Obama seems to believe that his policies and efforts have been successful. Second, Obama thinks we need to continue down the same path, that he "stood up for a different vision and did what was right. The future rewards those who press on."


Sadly, it would seem that our President is not merely wrong, but delusional. Let’s take a look at what Obama’s policies have actually produced.


Largest wealth destruction in American history: Net Wealth Lost 2009-2011 --$8.7 Trillion

Highest sustained Unemployment in decades: 9.1%

Brutal Unemployment for minorities: Black Americans : 16.7%

Unprecedented Unemployment: Black Teenage Americans :46.5%

Historic loss in American credit: U.S. Credit Rating drops to: AA-plus

Historic jump in Number of people in U.S. on Foodstamps : 45.8 Million

Quixotic investment in mythic Green Jobs : $80 billion

· Supposed Number of Green Jobs Created : 255,000

· Approximate Cost of each Green Job: $313,725.50

Stimulus Program: TARP : $475 Billion
Stimulus Program: Shovel Ready projects : $787 Billion

Stimulus Programs: Cash for Clunkers : $3 billion

Stimulus Programs: Cash for Caulkers : $10 Billion

Changes in Unemployment after $1.5 Trillion of government stimulus: +3% change

Averaged cost of a gallon of gas : $3.45 +$1.25 change

New Regulations 2009-2011 : 75 Major New Regulations, 1,827 Rules Amended

Executive Orders signed by Obama : 96

Cost of New Regulations : + $1.75 Trillion annually

Public Debt : $18.8 Trillion

2012 Federal Budget Proposed by Obama : $3.73 Trillion

Percentage of Americans that pay no taxes: 51%

Percentage of Federal Spending required from borrowing: 40%

Percentage of Government Spending on Entitlements: 60%

Number of Obama proposals to limit entitlement spending: ZERO


By any measure, President Obama’s economic policies and leadership have produced an unambiguous tale of woe. Not once has a single Obama policy produced the anticipated or promised benefits. Moreover, these many policies have made existing problems much worse.


During Obama's presidency, Americans have lost a collective $8 trillion in national wealth. Even now, his policies continue to crush business development, rob the prudent of their savings, and continue the awful trend of blaming others for his own inexperience and his policy mistakes. Perhaps the saddest fact of all is that President Obama believes that these failures represent success.





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[Soul Crusher]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44885991/ns/business-real_estate



Only getting drastically worse and and worse and worse. 

[Soul Crusher]

U.S. "misery index" rises to highest since 1983
Reuters ^ | 10/19/11 | Ann Saphir



U.S. "misery index" rises to highest since 1983

Wed, Oct 19 2011

By Ann Saphir

CHICAGO (Reuters) - An unofficial gauge of human misery in the United States rose last month to a 28-year high as Americans struggled with rising inflation and high unemployment.

The misery index -- which is simply the sum of the country's inflation and unemployment rates -- rose to 13.0, pushed up by higher price data the government reported on Wednesday.

The data underscores the extent that Americans continue to suffer even two years after a deep recession ended, with a weak economic recovery imperiling President Barack Obama's hopes of winning reelection next year.

Inez Stallworth, an underwriting assistant for a financial services company, recently gave up her car, in part because of rising costs for gasoline and groceries.


(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


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[Soul Crusher]

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-number-of-underemployed-people-keeps-growing-2011-10


Wow.    Hope n Fing Change MOFO's!!!!