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BayGBM
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« on: January 25, 2012, 05:10:50 PM »

Netflix Regains 600,000 U.S. Subscribers
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Netflix has regained most of the U.S. customers it had lost following an unpopular price increase, signaling that the video subscription service is healing from its self-inflected wounds.

Fourth-quarter figures released Wednesday show Netflix Inc. ended December with 24.4 million subscribers in the U.S. That was up 600,000 from 23.8 million at the end of September. That means Netflix regained about three-quarters of the 800,000 it lost last summer after raising its U.S. prices by as much as 60 percent.

The subscriber uptick is a positive sign for Netflix after several months of upheaval that battered its stock.

The fallout contributed to a 14 percent decrease in Netflix's fourth-quarter earnings.

Netflix made $40.7 million, or 73 cents per share, in the final three months of last year. That compares with income of $47.1 million, or 87 cents per share, a year earlier.

Investors had been bracing for a bigger drop-off. The company's performance easily exceeded the average earnings estimate of 54 cents per share among analysts surveyed by FactSet.

Fourth-quarter revenue climbed 47 percent from the previous year to $876 million $19 million above analyst projections.

Netflix's stock soared $12.97, or more than 13 percent, to $108.01 in extended trading. During the regular session, it increased $2.37, up 2.6 percent.

The stock still has a long way to go to return to its peak of nearly $305, which was reached in July, about the same time that Netflix announced the price increase that outraged customers.

But the fourth-quarter results should help bolster confidence in Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, who had been skewered in Internet forums and analyst notes for miscalculating how subscribers would react to higher prices.

A contrite Hastings had promised that Netflix would work to lure back customers, and it managed to do so better than he had forecast.

Netflix expects its comeback to gather more momentum in the current quarter.

The company, which is based in Los Gatos, Calif., forecast that it will add 1.7 million U.S. subscribers to a service that streams video over high-speed Internet connections. That would be in line with how many streaming subscribers signed up in last year's first quarter.

Netflix ended 2011 with 21.7 million streaming subscribers in the U.S. and another 1.9 million in Canada and Latin America. This month, Netflix introduced streaming plans in the United Kingdom and Ireland, too.

Most of the streaming gains will be offset by cancellations of DVD-by-mail rental plans, which Netflix is gradually phasing out. Hastings believes discs are becoming increasingly antiquated as technology advances. Netflix predicted its DVD subscriptions will fall from 11.2 million in December to 9.7 million in March. The company lost 2.8 million DVD subscribers in the fourth quarter.

While Netflix sees its emphasis on streaming as a smart long-term strategy, the DVD attrition will hurt the company's financial performance this year. That's because Netflix's recent price increases made delivering discs through the mail more profitable, at least for now. Part of the reason is because Netflix is paying higher fees to obtain the streaming rights to exclusive programming, as well as video already available in other outlets and formats.

Netflix expects those factors to produce an annual loss this year, the first time that has happened in a decade. The company gave the first inkling at how big the setback will be with its first-quarter projections. The company predicted a loss of 16 cents to 49 cents per share.

The average analyst estimate called for a first-quarter loss of 29 cents per share.

Netflix projected first-quarter revenue of $842 million to $877 million. Analysts expect revenue of $849 million.


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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2012, 09:21:28 PM »

  I work for them. My stock went from about $300K in value to about 20% of that during the hemorrhaging. It's back up to almost $100K now, so things are looking up.
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2012, 12:37:13 AM »

Netflix streaming sucks no new movies. If a movie has sequels the first movie is not available for streaming. I'll stuck with iTunes and blockbuster.
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2012, 10:03:16 PM »

Netflix shares dive 13% on weak guidance
By James O'Toole @CNNMoneyTech July 24, 2012: 5:57 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Netflix reported second-quarter earnings Tuesday that beat analyst expectations, but shares fell 13% after-hours as the company offered a weak outlook for the rest of the year.
Netflix said it may be "challenging" for it to meet its goal of adding 7 million new streaming subscribers in the United States this year if subscribers don't come in strong in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, Netflix added roughly 2.3 million new domestic streaming subscribers, and now has nearly 24 million in total.

In a letter to investors outlining the results, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings suggested that the Olympics could have a negative impact on viewing and sign-ups.

Netflix (NFLX) reported $889 million in revenue for the second quarter, in line with analyst expectations, and earnings of 11 cents a share, ahead of analyst projections for five cents. Net income was $6 million.
In the third quarter, Netflix said it expects to post results anywhere between a loss of 10 cents a share and earnings of 14 cents a share. For the fourth quarter, the company said it will return to the red as it launches in a new market -- as yet unnamed -- in Europe.
Netflix had warned previously that it would lose money throughout 2012 as it expands internationally. In the first quarter, the company lost $5 million, or 8 cents a share.

Netflix's stock has been volatile this year, pushing close to $130 in February before dipping to around $62 in June. Shares jumped more than 10% earlier this month after Hastings revealed that subscribers watched more than 1 billion hours of video in June.
A key concern for Netflix is how much it will have to shell out to retain its catalog of TV and film titles.

Studios are demanding that Netflix pay them more money for their content, and not all of those negotiations are working out. Netflix was unable to renew its contract with Starz, a key content supplier. The Liberty Media (LMCA)-owned cable company has a large chunk of Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) movies that are now no longer in Netflix's catalog.
The company is also facing competition in streaming from HuluPlus and Amazon Prime Instant Video. Hastings said neither of these services have so far gained "meaningful traction relative to our viewing hours," but are likely to step up their efforts.
Verizon's (VZ, Fortune 500) Redbox Instant, set to launch later this year, will offer an additional challenge, though Hastings said it "will face a big challenge to break into the top 3 of subscription streaming services."

Terrible 2011: Netflix was once the company that could do no wrong in the eyes of customers and investors.
But 2011 was a year full of missteps that eroded both Netflix's reputation and market value. The troubles began in September, when Netflix hiked prices by 60% for customers subscribing to both Netflix's DVD and streaming business. In the third quarter of 2011, the company's U.S. subscriber base fell for the first time in years.

Then, Netflix stunned customers when it said it would rename its DVD business Qwikster and separate that business from the more lucrative streaming division. Customers raged so much that Netflix scrapped the idea less than a month later.
In Tuesday's letter to investors, Hastings said the company guessed it would take three years from the Qwikster debacle before Netflix achieves "full brand recovery."
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2012, 10:46:29 PM »

I cancelled Netflix. Their service is horrible. I predict they will be out of business in less than three years.
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2012, 07:03:21 AM »

I predict they will be out of business in less than three years.

  I parted ways with them a few months ago, so I have to admit that there's a small part of me that hopes this is the case.

  Now the stock is down to 60 or so per share. I'm probably gonna dump it soon and get back what I can.
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2012, 07:06:43 AM »

They are down 22% to $62.22 today.

Definitely not going in the right direction.
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2012, 09:24:06 AM »

  I work for them. My stock went from about $300K in value to about 20% of that during the hemorrhaging. It's back up to almost $100K now, so things are looking up.

Complaining about your stock loss from 300 is like complaining that your house is no longer worth what it was during the real estate bubble:  it was never worth that to begin with.  The inflated value was just that: froth.  If you bought at the peak then you were not very smart and should not be trading.  I bought at around $80 and sold at $270.  At its current value of $60 I think it is worth buying again but you need to watch it carefully; competition is heating up and they need to execute flawlessly to excel.  Can they do it?  Time will tell.



  I parted ways with them a few months ago, so I have to admit that there's a small part of me that hopes this is the case.

  Now the stock is down to 60 or so per share. I'm probably gonna dump it soon and get back what I can.

When did you buy?
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2012, 09:48:08 AM »

Netflix sucks. I cant seem them turning this around.
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2012, 09:53:42 AM »

Complaining about your stock loss from 300 is like complaining that your house is no longer worth what it was during the real estate bubble:  it was never worth that to begin with.  The inflated value was just that: froth.  If you bought at the peak then you were not very smart and should not be trading.  I bought at around $80 and sold at $270.  At its current value of $60 I think it is worth buying again but you need to watch it carefully; competition is heating up and they need to execute flawlessly to excel.  Can they do it?  Time will tell.



When did you buy?

They will continue to drop... You might say it's a buy, but you are going against all analysts when you do that... Everyone is saying sell.

If you buy now, you are wasting money.

It's now below 60... Lost 20 dollars since the closing bell yesterday.
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2012, 10:03:40 AM »

They will continue to drop... You might say it's a buy, but you are going against all analysts when you do that... Everyone is saying sell.

If you buy now, you are wasting money.

It's now below 60... Lost 20 dollars since the closing bell yesterday.

Disclaimer: I am not buying.  I got out at 270 and that was enough for me.  I'm still a Netflix user though and love the service.  I'm a fan of old movies so the streaming offering suits me just fine; when I want something more recent I just add it to my queue. Cool
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2012, 10:07:05 AM »

Disclaimer: I am not buying.  I got out at 270 and that was enough for me.  I'm still a Netflix user though and love the service.  I'm a fan of old movies so the streaming offering suits me just fine; when I want something more recent I just add it to my queue. Cool

I see... Well, I was taking this quote and believed you were looking at buying again.

I think it's a huge mistake if someone follows that logic.

At its current value of $60 I think it is worth buying again but you need to watch it carefully; competition is heating up and they need to execute flawlessly to excel.

I might buy at 55 for a short term game to a climb back to 60, but for longer growth, I wouldn't buy at all.

I feel it will stable around 48, but that's just a swag.
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2012, 10:19:14 AM »

Netflix is on my watch list; it had a very good run for a while.

My best players over the last 3-5 years have been Baidu and Netese  Cool
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2012, 10:21:14 AM »

Netflix is on my watch list; it had a very good run for a while.

My best players over the last 3-5 years have been Baidu and Netese  Cool

Truly I'm very cautious, I did get lucky when I bought a bunch of Apple stock at like 7 bucks back in 98.

Everything else has been a crap shoot.
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2012, 10:45:49 AM »

"If you can't afford to lose... then you can't afford to win"

                                           --Gazoo


Over the years, I have won a fortune and lost a fortune.  Easy come. Easy go.  Roll Eyes


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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2012, 02:05:50 PM »

Ever see that movie Limitless?  Yeah, it's like that!  Grin


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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2012, 07:56:46 AM »

When did you buy?

  I started investing in the company when they started an Employee Stock Purchase Plan way back in '03 or so. About 4% of my pay went into it automatically, so I'm obviously not investing in it now. Any advice? Dump it soon?
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2012, 08:09:00 AM »

They are doing a massive ad campaign in Europe - I've listened to the CEO of the company on irish radio as well, to be honest their service does not buy me over, I do also love old films but in times like these were you really watch what you are spending and were your money goes these are expenses that I can do without.
Plus I bet you the novelty factor wears off real fast and before you know it you watch maybe a movie a month - people like Bay who have no kids and possibly more "free time" maybe more.
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2012, 09:47:30 AM »

They are doing a massive ad campaign in Europe - I've listened to the CEO of the company on irish radio as well, to be honest their service does not buy me over, I do also love old films but in times like these were you really watch what you are spending and were your money goes these are expenses that I can do without.
Plus I bet you the novelty factor wears off real fast and before you know it you watch maybe a movie a month - people like Bay who have no kids and possibly more "free time" maybe more.


If you cannot afford $10 or $20 bucks for a movie then this is really not a conversation you should be participating in.  Mind you that is the cost of a typical movie ticket in the cinema.  For that same amount, one can have access to several DVDs per month and unlimited streaming (of select films) via your computer or Netflix connected TV.  We are not talking about selling your yacht or your third vacation home in the South of France. Roll Eyes

From where I sit Netflix is still an excellent value.  

People keep harping on the limited streaming content.  Yes, it is limited, but it is no more limited that the streaming content of the competition.  Movie studios do not really want you to have access to that content unless you are paying through the nose.  The studios--not Netflix--are the bad guys here.  It is worth remembering that Netflix became a very successful company by offering DVDs by mail.  It still offers DVDs by mail and it does so very well.  Streaming is icing on the cake.  I actually prefer getting the DVDs.  If I like the film, I can easily rip it (I have ripped dozens of movies) and ripping gives you the flexibility to rip with or without subtitles or in another language--which I also love. Ripping also gives me the flexibility to share films within my movie sharing circle online.

At $16.66/month I am a very satisfied Netflix customer.  Cool
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2012, 12:40:05 PM »

If you cannot afford $10 or $20 bucks for a movie then this is really not a conversation you should be participating in.  Mind you that is the cost of a typical movie ticket in the cinema.  For that same amount, one can have access to several DVDs per month and unlimited streaming (of select films) via your computer or Netflix connected TV.  We are not talking about selling your yacht or your third vacation home in the South of France. Roll Eyes

From where I sit Netflix is still an excellent value.  

People keep harping on the limited streaming content.  Yes, it is limited, but it is no more limited that the streaming content of the competition.  Movie studios do not really want you to have access to that content unless you are paying through the nose.  The studios--not Netflix--are the bad guys here.  It is worth remembering that Netflix became a very successful company by offering DVDs by mail.  It still offers DVDs by mail and it does so very well.  Streaming is icing on the cake.  I actually prefer getting the DVDs.  If I like the film, I can easily rip it (I have ripped dozens of movies) and ripping gives you the flexibility to rip with or without subtitles or in another language--which I also love. Ripping also gives me the flexibility to share films within my movie sharing circle online.

At $16.66/month I am a very satisfied Netflix customer.  Cool
For me, I just couldnt ever find anything I wanted to watch on their streaming channel, which was the main reason I had it in the 1st place.
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2012, 12:49:24 PM »

Like the vast majority of their users, I joined Netflix for access to their DVD by mail service; it's like getting a present in the mail every time one arrives.  To me, streaming is very much an afterthought.  Two DVDs at at time (unlimited) for $11.99 a month is a value that can't be beat.  Three DVDs (unlimited) are $15.99 a month.  Again, a value that can't be beat. Cool
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2012, 01:28:45 PM »

Like the vast majority of their users, I joined Netflix for access to their DVD by mail service; it's like getting a present in the mail every time one arrives.  To me, streaming is very much an afterthought.  Two DVDs at at time (unlimited) for $11.99 a month is a value that can't be beat.  Three DVDs (unlimited) are $15.99 a month.  Again, a value that can't be beat. Cool
The way their dvd system is setup, i almost always cheaper to just hit up red box tho.
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2012, 06:15:12 PM »

I'll admit I don't know much about redbox, but my understanding is they are focused on the latest releases. A) that is not my interest and B) that is not an improvement on Netflix because if a film is on DVD Netlflix has it.  I'll choose three movies at random to prove my point:

Training Day 2002 Oscar winner for Best Actor
The Silence of the Lambs 1992 Oscar winner for Best Actress
Chariots of Fire 1982 Oscar winner for Best Picture

i just checked the redbox website and none of those were available.  For a real movie fan, Redbox is no competition for Netflix.
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2012, 06:29:02 PM »

I'll admit I don't know much about redbox, but my understanding is they are focused on the latest releases. A) that is not my interest and B) that is not an improvement on Netflix because if a film is on DVD Netlflix has it.  I'll choose three movies at random to prove my point:

Training Day 2002 Oscar winner for Best Actor
The Silence of the Lambs 1992 Oscar winner for Best Actress
Chariots of Fire 1982 Oscar winner for Best Picture

i just checked the redbox website and none of those were available.  For a real movie fan, Redbox is no competition for Netflix.

I think you're confusing two types of markets... For instance,myself... I don't usually watch old movies... If I do, then I probably have bought it. I generally can't find anything on Netflix streaming that I give a damn about.

Typically, the Redbox model, where I would get a new release movie and watch it maybe once a week, that's where it's at.

Actually, I rent more movies from my appleTV lately than anything.

Instantly watch the latest release without having to leave my living room? Yeah, I'm good with that... Even if it costs a couple of extra bucks.
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2012, 07:12:21 PM »

Disclaimer: I am not buying.  I got out at 270 and that was enough for me.  I'm still a Netflix user though and love the service.  I'm a fan of old movies so the streaming offering suits me just fine; when I want something more recent I just add it to my queue. Cool
TCM is the only thing you need, then. And Robert Osborne, the only host.
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