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Author Topic: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".  (Read 534 times)
Shockwave
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« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2012, 11:56:13 AM »

Ah, youre saying weve come so far along this path that were not willing to deal with the consequences of actually trying to fix things, so we just limp along and try and keep bandaiding it until it finally breaks?
Basically, actually fixing it is going to be too tough for people to want to deal with, so instead theyre willing to just limp a broken system along until its inevitable collapse?

Ive kinda thought the same for a while, that people just arent willing to face reality and do what is necessary to fix things, theyd rather just ignore it and pretend it doesnt exist, ignorance is bliss after all......

BUT, that still doesnt explain people like Krugman that absolutley believe without a doubt that Keynesian econ is the be all end all answer when their only successful example is post WWII America. (Which is just a tiny bit of a much larger system, to me it feels like they built a theory around a very small piece of the pie and cant figure out why it never works out)
 
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howardroark
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« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2012, 12:02:14 PM »

What's the inflation rate like in Japan? They've had an amazing two-decade record of somehow being able to print tons of cash and live with a low inflation rate. Quite impressive, really.
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GigantorX
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« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2012, 12:19:24 PM »

What's the inflation rate like in Japan? They've had an amazing two-decade record of somehow being able to print tons of cash and live with a low inflation rate. Quite impressive, really.

Not sure what the rate is, but the population has a real, real high savings rate, a lot of the debt is domestically owned plus they have an export based economy....built by currency manipulation but still. So the govt. can spend money and go into a ton of debt but they have had a huge trade balance in their favor for a very long time.
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GigantorX
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« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2012, 12:26:43 PM »

Ah, youre saying weve come so far along this path that were not willing to deal with the consequences of actually trying to fix things, so we just limp along and try and keep bandaiding it until it finally breaks?
Basically, actually fixing it is going to be too tough for people to want to deal with, so instead theyre willing to just limp a broken system along until its inevitable collapse?

Ive kinda thought the same for a while, that people just arent willing to face reality and do what is necessary to fix things, theyd rather just ignore it and pretend it doesnt exist, ignorance is bliss after all......

BUT, that still doesnt explain people like Krugman that absolutley believe without a doubt that Keynesian econ is the be all end all answer when their only successful example is post WWII America. (Which is just a tiny bit of a much larger system, to me it feels like they built a theory around a very small piece of the pie and cant figure out why it never works out)
 

We've popped three bubbles in around 20 years. RE bubble+recession in 90-91, internet bubble in 2000 and the biggest bubble in 2007 or so. Each recession is met with the standard playbook with each successive policy action more intense than the last with less effect.

Right now, look at all the deficits, debt, zero % interest rates, stimulus, car trade in schemes, housing schemes, 99 week U.E. insurance, trillions pumped into the markets/Banks by the Fed, payroll tax cut, two wars and on and on.....and take a look at where we are at the point.

-Industrial production is still below pre-crisis levels
-Tax revenues are still down compared to 2007
-Home owner ship
-U.E. levels
-Duration of being unemployed
-Food stamp usage.
-Government dependency
-And on and on.

All that expenditure that could doom us for generations (Again look at Japan) and we aren't anywhere.

The proof is right in front of us and some cheer it on as some form of "Success" or "Progress" when all we've done is totally and utterly fuck ourselves to death.

The blame is everyone, really. The govt. never let the recessions take their course, never really let the corrections happen....so now the populace thinks that this is just the way it goes....
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howardroark
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« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2012, 12:29:15 PM »

Not sure what the rate is, but the population has a real, real high savings rate, a lot of the debt is domestically owned plus they have an export based economy....built by currency manipulation but still. So the govt. can spend money and go into a ton of debt but they have had a huge trade balance in their favor for a very long time.

The high savings rate would increase the rate of inflation due to the money multiplier. Unless the Japanese prefer storing their cash under their bed rather than in banks.
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GigantorX
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« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2012, 12:32:29 PM »

The high savings rate would increase the rate of inflation due to the money multiplier. Unless the Japanese prefer storing their cash under their bed rather than in banks.

Good point. But are the banks using those reserves to give out loans and such? Or are the banks hoarding them because they haven't yet recovered from the implosion 20 years ago?
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howardroark
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« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2012, 12:34:48 PM »

Good point. But are the banks using those reserves to give out loans and such? Or are the banks hoarding them because they haven't yet recovered from the implosion 20 years ago?

Ahh touche. That could explain it. Do you know of any stats that confirm that though?
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GigantorX
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« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2012, 12:36:11 PM »

Ahh touche. That could explain it. Do you know of any stats that confirm that though?

I'll take a look around the internet.

The banks could be using the reserves as protection or to simply buy the government debt? Batman is on the case.
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kcballer
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« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2012, 12:39:06 PM »

Also correct. Aging population + insular population = bad demographic trend.

Poor governance and massive debt have played a large role in decline, too.

China will face the same as well and on a grander scale.

Yep, very true.  China is the reincarnation of Japan.  Right down to the cries that they will surpass the US in terms of economic power. 
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Abandon every hope...
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