Obama vs Romney

[Soul Crusher]

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RNC Says Memo Blaming Tied Poll on ‘Flaws’ in Gallup Methods Shows Obama Campaign is ‘Panicked’
 Politicker ^

Posted on Monday, October 15, 2012 5:25:36 PM by Arthurio

After a new poll out today from Gallup and USA Today showed Mitt Romney pulling ahead of President Barack Obama by strengthening his standing with likely female voters in key swing states, the Obama campaign fired back by releasing a memo written by Josh Benenson of the Benenson Strategy Group consulting firm criticizing “deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.” Tim Miller, deputy communications director at the Republican National Committee, told Politicker the Obama campaign’s memo shows they are “panicked” with battleground state polls tightening in the wake of President Obama’s widely panned performance in the first presidential debate.

“Since the president’s disastrous debate performance, the panicked Obama campaign’s message has vacillated from Big Bird to false character attacks on Mitt Romney to now nitpicking the crosstabs of bad polls,” Mr. Miller said. “Litigating polls won’t help the president fix his two central problems: he can’t defend his economic record and he has offered no plan for getting people back to work in a 2nd term.”

Mr. Benenson’s memo described the poll showing President Obama and Mr. Romney tied among likely women voters in swing states at 48 percent as an “extreme outlier.” Mr. Benenson pointed to other recent polls of the battleground states that have shown President Obama with an average 10.3 percent lead over Mr. Romney and Gallup’s data on registered female voters in the battleground states, which shows him leading Mr. Romney 52 percent to 44 percent.


(Excerpt) Read more at politicker.com ...






PANIC SETTING IN FOR SURE

[Soul Crusher]

Here's The Reason Mitt Romney Is Performing Exceptionally Well Among Latinos In A New Florida Poll
 


Brett LoGiurato|Oct. 15, 2012, 6:39 PM|3,692|17
 





AP
 
A new poll among Florida's Latino voters shows that President Barack Obama's lead on Mitt Romney is shrinking, which could spell trouble for the president in the crucial swing state.
 
Obama leads Romney 51-44 among likely Latino voters in the state, according to a new FIU/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll. It's a stark difference from the rest of the nation with Latino voters, and it serves as a primary reason that Romney has built a significant, 7-point lead in the state, according to the same poll.
 
Compare that number to the rest of the nation — Obama leads Latinos by an astounding 67-23 margin, according to the latest tracking poll from the firm Latino Decisions. In its latest Florida poll, Latino Decisions found Obama with a 61-31 lead over Romney.
 
"We find that Romney performs best in Florida, but not as strong as this poll shows," said Sylvia Manzano, a senior analyst at Latino Decisions. "That suggests some big methodological differences."
 
One methodological difference is that the FIU poll does not weigh by national origin, whereas Latino Decisions does. FIU Political Science Professor Eduardo Gamarra, who conducted the poll, said in a webcast today that he did not weigh the poll by national origin.
 
That's important because FIU does not weigh the sample of Cuban-Americans to match Florida's population. Cuban-Americans tend to vote more Republican than other Latinos. In the unidentified sample in the FIU poll, Cuban-Americans were the only demographic that identified as more Republican than Democrat.
 
"This is not a sample weighed by Cubans," Gamarra said. "If I had weighted more by Cubans, in fact, the vote for President Obama would have been much higher."
 
That reconciles some of the differences between the Florida polling. The key number for Obama in Florida is 57 percent — that's the share of the Latino vote he won in 2008, according to exit polling.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/florida-latino-poll-obama-trails-romney-2012-10#ixzz29QWZUCda

[Soul Crusher]

Poll Shows Romney Gaining Ground in Pennsylvania
 National Journal ^ | 10/16/2012

Posted on Tuesday, October 16, 2012 6:53:35 AM by My Favorite Headache

President Obama now holds only a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state thought only a month ago to be safely in the incumbent’s corner, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University released on Tuesday.

The survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 12-14, reports the president is ahead of the GOP presidential nominee in the Keystone State by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney has gained 8 points on Obama since a late-September Quinnipiac poll, when the president led, 54 percent to 42 percent.

The latest survey is representative of national polls that show the race shifting in Romney’s favor since the first presidential debate. As in those polls, his gains correlate with increased favorability ratings. In September, just 41 percent of likely voters saw Romney favorably, while 50 percent saw him unfavorably. Now, a plurality of likely voters in the state see the former governor positively, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Obama’s number remain mostly unchanged: 52 percent see him favorably, while 45 percent don’t. A month ago, 54 percent saw him favorably and 43 percent who didn’t.

The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.

But another poll conducted on the Philadelphia Inquirer’s behalf by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican group National Research, reported Obama held a far more comfortable edge among likely voters. He led by 8 points there, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the Inquirer survey, taken from Oct. 4-8.

The Quinnipiac poll reported a gargantuan gender gap between support of the two candidates. Romney led among men in the state, 54 percent to 43 percent, while Obama led among women, 57 percent to 39 percent. That’s a net 29-point difference.

Pennsylvania has traditionally been among the country’s most fiercely contested presidential battlegrounds, even as Democrats have won every quadrennial battle there since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988. But it has largely been ignored by both campaigns this cycle, who have shifted their focus to new swing states such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. TV-ad spending by either campaign, tracked and compiled by The Hotline, shows Obama’s campaign hasn’t spent a dollar over the air there since July; Romney’s campaign has yet to make a single ad buy in Pennsylvania in the general election.

However, Ann Romney told Philadelphia radio station WPHT on Monday: "You know, the debate was huge and we’ve seen our numbers move all across the country, but in particular, Pennsylvania is in play, so we’re here and we’re fighting."

It’s not surprising that if the general-election race is close, Pennsylvania would be competitive. Obama won the state by 10 points four years ago, but George W. Bush lost it narrowly by just over 2 points in 2004.

Whether the Romney campaign will make a last-ditch effort to win the state remains unclear. Obama’s lead has shrunk, but it remains larger in the Keystone State than in battlegrounds such as Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. And advertising in Pennsylvania is both expensive and inefficient, particularly in the sprawling Philadelphia media market. An investment capable of moving numbers would likely cost millions of dollars, and advertising in Philadelphia means paying for voters in southern New Jersey and Delaware to see the ads (each part of the city’s media market), both of which are safe Democratic seats.

The Romney campaign has already calculated it can reach 270 electoral votes by winning some combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Making a late play for Pennsylvania would siphon money from efforts in each of them — although it’s possible that, for strategic reasons, Romney’s campaign decides to make Obama’s campaign put up ads of its own there.

Quinnipiac University's latest poll surveyed 1,519 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The poll used live interviewers, who called land lines and cell phones.










Landslide coming 

[garebear]

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[Soul Crusher]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158045/voters-equally-favorable-candidates-prior-second-debate.aspx



LOL.  Maybe Gaybama hiding behind Hillary's skirt has something to do with this. 

[whork]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158045/voters-equally-favorable-candidates-prior-second-debate.aspx



LOL.  Maybe Gaybama hiding behind Hillary's skirt has something to do with this. 

LOL at a guy who spends his life on the web surfing politics has to resort to childish arguments like this

[garebear]

If Obama pulled half the shit that R and R has, many Republicans on this board would have had a brain aneurism weeks ago. 

[Soul Crusher]

If Obama pulled half the shit that R and R has, many Republicans on this board would have had a brain aneurism weeks ago. 

LOL like what?  Fast n Furious?  Benghazi cover up?  Solyndra?  Worst DOJ ever? 

[flpl88]

In every election since I've been alive I've always noticed a pretty equal amount of campaign signs in homeowners lawns. This year, I've seen MAYBE 1 or 2 obama/biden signs...

[garebear]

LOL like what?  Fast n Furious?  Benghazi cover up?  Solyndra?  Worst DOJ ever? 

Never mind.

You're not out of the woods yet.

[Soul Crusher]

In every election since I've been alive I've always noticed a pretty equal amount of campaign signs in homeowners lawns. This year, I've seen MAYBE 1 or 2 obama/biden signs...

In NYC there is literally nothing at all.  I have never seen anything like this.   Maybe a bumper sticker here or there at best, but no signs, no window stickers, ZILCH  

You would not even know an election is three weeks away if you cam to NYC  

Obama is going to have TERRIBLE turnout.    

[Soul Crusher]

Never mind.

You're not out of the woods yet.

STFU pedo.   No wonder you love Obama - you are a pedo for fucks sake! 

[garebear]

STFU pedo.   No wonder you love Obama - you are a pedo for fucks sake! 

That's it?

------------------------------------

[Soul Crusher]

Romney Is Winning The Battle For Women
The Week|7 minutes ago|6|
 

 Mitt Romney has surged to a 4-percentage-point lead in 12 crucial swing states, largely because he has erased President Obama's lead among women voters, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.
 
The battle for women has been a major focus of both campaigns, and is expected to figure prominently in their closing arguments in Tuesday night's debate and in TV ads during the last three weeks before election day.
 
As a group, women tend to wait longer than men to choose their candidates, which makes them — especially blue-collar "waitress moms" hit hard by the economy's troubles — a key swing vote. Women overwhelmingly backed Obama throughout the campaign, so why are they suddenly warming to Romney? Here, five theories:

1. Romney showed them he's not crazy

Romney's "humor and authority" in the first presidential debate changed everything, says Tim Stanley at Britain's Telegraph. His pledge to protect Social Security, Medicare, and financial regulation reassured them "that while he is a traditional Republican, he isn't crazy." Romney reinforced that image after stepping off the stage, by saying he has no plans to pursue federal anti-abortion legislation, making it harder for Obama to "portray Romney as an antediluvian conservative who would swap sex-ed classes for chastity belts." Obama might be able to change all that, says Digby at Hullabaloo, if he points out that the real Mitt is all about "destroying Medicare, Medicaid, and calling half the country a bunch of dependent losers he doesn't have to care about."
 
2. He's blurring where he stands on abortion

"Romney has been blurry on abortion," says Margaret Talbot at The New Yorker. He promised to "preserve and protect a woman's right to chose" when he was running for governor of Massachusetts, then vetoed a bill making emergency contraception more accessible. In this year's GOP primaries, he "declared himself proudly pro-life;" now he insists anti-abortion legislation isn't on his agenda. The truth is that women's issues are among "the starkest differences between the Obama and Romney tickets." Romney's GOP doesn't just want to limit "the right to abortion but, astonishingly, the right to contraception, too." Women can't "pursue education and careers" if you deny them the right to "plan when they will give birth." Romney's hoping they won't notice what he's up to until it's too late.

3. Women are worried about the deficit

Abortion isn't "the losing issue for the GOP" many Democrats think it is, says Laura Vanderkam at USA Today. They're as likely to favor abortion rights as they are to oppose them, and "more women will pay into the Social Security system, for instance, and will send their children to schools, than will ever have an abortion." Besides, we've had Republican presidents and Congresses, and they haven't overturned Roe v. Wade, "so it seems unlikely the next president will be able to institute an immediate nationwide abortion ban, let alone a ban on birth control." The reality this campaign season is that voters, women included, "rank jobs, the economy, and the federal budget deficit as more important than abortion."

4. Romney showed he's a good listener

Republicans, citing internal polls, think they know how Romney won over women, says Mike Allen at Politico: Their focus groups, one GOP insider says, told them that women who watched the first debate found Obama to be "the interesting but arrogant guy that turns them off." Romney "was a reliable father. He showed women that he's a listener." In the first debate, the Republican source said, Obama "was the husband who says: 'That's your problem? Here's the solution.' Mitt was the husband who says: 'Well, you, know I've been thinking about this. I've got some ideas. You wanna talk about them?' Women want to know that you listen to them." Both candidates, Allen says, will try to come cross as "the good husband" in Tuesday's debate.
 

5. The poll is wrong

The "GOP poll denialists" really were "crazed" when they insisted that pollsters were deliberately skewing their surveys to give Obama an edge, says Jonathan Chait at New York. The Obama campaign, however, is right when it says the USA Today/Gallup poll is malarkey. Poll denialists said pollsters were simply interviewing too many Democrats. Team Obama is saying that Gallup, which found that registered voters prefer Obama by 4 points, is messing up when it calculates who's actually going to show up and cast a ballot on election day. Gallup is giving the GOP a 9-percentage-point edge among so-called likely voters. "Historically, Republicans vote at a higher rate than Democrats. But the difference is usually a couple percentage points, not 9."
 
This story was originally published by The Week.


Read more: http://theweek.com/article/index/234865/why-women-are-warming-up-to-mitt-romney#ixzz29UXgZo3J

[garebear]

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[Soul Crusher]

Romney pulls within 1 in *WISCONSIN* (O - 49, R - 48)
 Marquette University Law School poll | 10/17/12 | Marquette University

Posted on Wednesday, October 17, 2012 1:35:14 PM by The G Man

No link yet. Obama was up by 11 in same poll 2 weeks ago.

[Soul Crusher]

Romney Polling Better Than Reagan With Jewish Voters
 Frontpage Mag ^ | 10/17/2012 | Daniel Greenfield

Posted on Wednesday, October 17, 2012 5:24:21 PM


The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.

While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.





New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.

Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.

The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.

The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.

Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.

A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.

[Soul Crusher]

Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?
 

posted at 5:24 pm on October 17, 2012 by Allahpundit
 





You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”
 
Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:
 

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
 
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…
 
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
 
Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:
 



Peter Hamby✔
@PeterHambyCNN

The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)

 17 Oct 12 Reply
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It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.
 
Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.

[garebear]

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[Soul Crusher]

Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada(goodbye N Carolina, Va, Florida)
 National Review ^ | October 17, 2012 5:05 P.M | By Jim Geraghty

Posted on Wednesday, October 17, 2012 8:46:51 PM by drewh

Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).


(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...

[MCWAY]

Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada(goodbye N Carolina, Va, Florida)
 National Review ^ | October 17, 2012 5:05 P.M | By Jim Geraghty

Posted on Wednesday, October 17, 2012 8:46:51 PM by drewh

Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).


(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...

But, but, but.....Obama won the debate last night!! Hope and change is BACK!! YAAAAY!!!

BTW, weren't North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida the three states where that Suffolk polling place pulled chocks, having deemed them all but a lock for Romney last week?

[Soul Crusher]

But, but, but.....Obama won the debate last night!! Hope and change is BACK!! YAAAAY!!!

His collapse is underway.   In retrospect - romney did far better as time goes on from the debate.   

[garebear]

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[Soul Crusher]

Romney is winning the white vote — by a lot (Most since Ronald Reagan)
 Washington Post ^ | 10/18/2012 | Aaron Blake

Posted on Thursday, October 18, 2012 12:30:24 PM by nhwingut

Political analysts (including The Fix) spend a good bit of time these days talking about important voter groups — Latino voters and female voters, in particular.

But all of the focus on these groups has obfuscated one fact: Mitt Romney is performing very, very well among white voters. And in fact, most recent polls show him winning the white vote by more than any GOP presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan.


(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...

[MCWAY]

Romney is winning the white vote — by a lot (Most since Ronald Reagan)
 Washington Post ^ | 10/18/2012 | Aaron Blake

Posted on Thursday, October 18, 2012 12:30:24 PM by nhwingut

Political analysts (including The Fix) spend a good bit of time these days talking about important voter groups — Latino voters and female voters, in particular.

But all of the focus on these groups has obfuscated one fact: Mitt Romney is performing very, very well among white voters. And in fact, most recent polls show him winning the white vote by more than any GOP presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan.


(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...

Remember what I posted a few months back. If Romney gets at least 62% of white working-class voters, Obama is TOAST, no matter how many blacks, Latinos, Jews, gays, or whatever Obama can muster.

BTW, have you seen RCP lately?