Place your bets: GOPers start speaking up on veepsBy: Emily Schultheis and Maggie Haberman
August 1, 2012
House Speaker John Boehner is “partial” to Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and thinks he’d be a “great asset.” Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani think Florida Sen. Marco Rubio would be the most exciting. And Gov. Scott Walker thinks “there’s nobody better” than Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.
As the hour draws near for Mitt Romney to pick his running mate, a slew of prominent Republicans are making their own feelings known — laying down markers of their own in very public ways that let them either claim ownership, or express disappointment, down the road.
“It’s almost devolved into an NBA or NFL draft, with everyone offering advice on who Romney should pick,” said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, a veteran of Al Gore’s 2000 campaign.
To a certain extent, it’s inevitable: veepstakes speculation is, said California-based GOP consultant Rob Stutzman, “the best parlor game to get everyone through the summer.”
And with a nominating process that basically wrapped up in the spring, there’s been a long time for people to mull their choices — and everyone from Boehner to Giuliani to Bush to William Kristol is offering their own suggestions and predictions for the presumptive Republican nominee.
“It’s becoming increasingly common if only because the speculation has become increasingly intense,” said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.
The public musings and advice this year are, some observers say, more intense for Romney than they’ve been in the past.
“Romney in particular is probably getting a little bit more from the chorus than you typically get,” Lehane said. “And I think that is at some level a function of real concerns about the operation of his campaign to date. … That has created a lack of discipline among Republicans so that people do feel liberated and free to offer their opinions out there.”
Most of the chatter so far has been in favor of one particular candidate or another, rather than negative feelings toward any of the potential short-listers — like in 2008, when conservatives blasted Sen. Joe Lieberman as a possible running mate for John McCain.
The latter is much more important for the campaign to take into account as they make their choice, Lehane said.
“Counsel and advice and opinions and thoughts that you’re getting from the peanut gallery out there … is relevant to the degree that you may pick someone who will be problematic for the base,” he said.
The talk has been especially intense around Rubio, a rising Hispanic star at a time when the party’s base has had a rightward shift on immigration, and who many believe could help Romney in key swing states in the general election.
“Some of this is rooting for the home team and that’s understandable,” said Florida-based GOP strategist Rick Wilson. “I would say that both Jeb and Rudy backing Marco is because those are two guys that have watched Hispanic numbers and those are two guys who are good talent-spotters.”
Indeed, Bush has been pushing aggressively for Rubio since the day he endorsed Romney through a statement. And Giuliani was a backer of Rubio in his Florida race against Charlie Crist in 2010.
Either way, the public chatter won’t undermine the Romney campaign’s sense of ownership of the process if the candidate makes it clear he’s in charge, Stutzman said.
“[The Romney campaign in] Boston probably pays attention to it, but at the end of the day, Beth [Myers] has run a very rigorous process and it’s a pretty personal decision for Romney,” he said. “And I think he wants to make sure he’s driving it, as opposed to what we saw with the McCain campaign four years ago.”
Former George W. Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer agreed.
“I think it is going to be very hard to influence the governor’s decision, but you certainly can take a stand on behalf of someone in whom you believe,” Fleischer said.
Still, those familiar with the VP selection process say outsiders are much more likely to have an impact if they make their preferences known privately, rather than publicly.
“Those with opinions that they’d like taken seriously would be far better off going through a private channel,” said David Wade, who handled press for John Kerry’s ’04 campaign. “Then again, when they go public with their recommendation, it’s typically a sign that no one’s asking for their private opinion to begin with.”
Jeb Bush, for one, said publicly that he told Romney privately he wants Rubio — a dual approach.
And public opinions might be totally different than those a politician would express to Romney privately — a way to appeal to either their own electorates or other politicians with whom they’d like to curry favor.
“When you start making public announcements, it’s more about sending public announcements to a particular group of voters but for your own political purposes,” Schnur said. It helps a politician “play to the home-state crowd or Buckeyes, improve your Latino credentials by pitching for Rubio, show off your budget-cutting credentials by recommending Ryan … and so on.”
That could be the case with Boehner, Walker and Bush, all of whom have publicly thrown their hats in the ring for fellow home-state pols.
“There’s a public dialogue and a private dialogue, and I believe there’s probably variation [between] the two,” Stutzman said.
As Romney makes his eventual choice, his decision won’t please everyone who’s spoken their mind publicly — a fact that may ruffle the feathers of those whose preferred candidates weren’t chosen.
Still, given the slate of oft-discussed potential choices, observers say Republicans will probably fall in line and support whomever Romney chooses.
“Unless he appoints someone who is pro-choice or so far out of the modern mainstream of the Republican Party,” Fleischer said, people will “quickly absorb the choice and refocus on the (candidate) at the top” of the ticket.
Former Ronald Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins agreed: “Unless it’s an outrageous choice [the inclination will be for] people to say, let’s move on.”
Indeed, unlike in 2008, Stutzman said he doesn’t expect there will be any major outcry from party members, given how widely acceptable many of the presumed short-listers are to the GOP as a whole.
“People will close ranks behind any of the common list of six or so names that we are all hearing about,” he said. “They would all be good picks — I don’t think anyone will growl about them.”
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