Time to call it....

[OzmO]

Now that the third debate is over and only a couple of weeks to go, who gonna win it and how much are they gonna win it by?

Landslide, Close victory, etc.


Make your official prediction here:

[GigantorX]

Now that the third debate is over and only a couple of weeks to go, who gonna win it and how much are they gonna win it by?

Landslide, Close victory, etc.


Make your official prediction here:

Mitt Romney.

Close Victory.

Big Wins: Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida

Possible Shocker: Pennsylvania.

[LurkerNoMore]

Obama in a squeaker.  Probably closer than Bush in 2000.

[Straw Man]

Obama with a close but decisive margin

I do expect that there will be long lines in many states where voter supression efforts lost in court and many legitimate voters who will discover on election day that they've been purged from the voting rolls

I think it will be a late night and it's possible they won't even call it on election night

[240 is Back]

Obama in a squeaker.  Probably closer than Bush in 2000.

Obama wins, with repubs crying for 4 years about cheating, which obama will certainly do.   Suddenly Repubs will be able to say the word "Diebold" without smirking anymore.

[Dos Equis]

Romney.  I think it will be close, but he will win the independents and crossover Republicans who voted for Obama in 08.  I also think voter turnout for Obama will be lower than 08.  

[Roger Bacon]

crossover Republicans who voted for Obama in 08.  I also think voter turnout for Obama will be lower than 08.  

bingo

[Shockwave]

I'm going with Obama in a tight victory.

[blacken700]

obama

[Mr. Magoo]

I'm going with Obama in a tight victory.

this

[Soul Crusher]

52 - 47 Romney.   
Romney gets 289 EV

[GigantorX]

52 - 47 Romney.   
Romney gets 289 EV

That's actually reasonable.

[Soul Crusher]

That's actually reasonable.

here is why -

1.  Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47.

2.   many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win. 

3.  2008 - RECORD demo turnout.   2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs.

4.  Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1. 

5.  the GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain.  Whether it's the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up. 

6.  No "old man" or " dumb bimbo" factor like in 2008.

7.  Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 

8.  indes favor Romney by a good margin

9.  Obama now has a record.   Blaming bush is old.

10.  Obama's so called "history making moment" is long over.   people don't. Give a shit anymore. 

11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise. 

12.  Obama won't get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off. 

13.  Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008.   




Tally all this up and it is at least worth a 6 point swing. From 2008.

[headhuntersix]

52-47...I agree with 3. Romney won't win NH. All the Mass libs with money have flocked to southern NH and made the state much more Blue...its basically northern Mass.

[Coach is Back!]

I said long before any predictions. Either Obama barley wins or Romney win by in the biggest landslide in American history. At this point it ain't looking too good for.ole Barry!

[syntaxmachine]

This thread will be more interesting if people add their electoral college projections. The most interesting way to do so is to go to

(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html)

and fill out the map according to your specifications, then share it with us.

Here's mine:



1. The only substantive difference between my map and the RCP 'no toss-up states' map is that I think Obama will carry Virginia. But there's a not insignificant chance I'll be wrong about this.

2. I've made Ohio a different hue of blue than the rest of the states Obama is liable to carry because it is the state that decides the election.

3. Needless to say, the popular vote will be significantly closer than the electoral college vote.

[GigantorX]

This thread will be more interesting if people add their electoral college projections. The most interesting way to do so is to go to

(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html)

and fill out the map according to your specifications, then share it with us.

Here's mine:



1. The only substantive difference between my map and the RCP 'no toss-up states' map is that I think Obama will carry Virginia. But there's a not insignificant chance I'll be wrong about this.

2. I've made Ohio a different hue of blue than the rest of the states Obama is liable to carry because it is the state that decides the election.

3. Needless to say, the popular vote will be significantly closer than the electoral college vote.

I've already done that.

[flipper5470]

Romney..., popular vote no more than 5-7 pts... but possible electoral landslide...Obama negatives are too high.  Worst record for an incumbent to run on in my lifetime...including Bush v1.0.  I think Obama senses he's in deep shit...the bits of the debate I saw last night looked like he was trying to draw Romney into a street fight while Romney was staying above the fray and looking "Presidential".
If he truly thought he was ahead, Obama would not have spent so much time and energy on the attack....

[tu_holmes]

I'm going with Obama in a tight victory.

I think this as well... I won't vote for him, but this is who's going to win. It will be close as hell though.

[AbrahamG]

I said long before any predictions. Either Obama barley wins or Romney win by in the biggest landslide in American history. At this point it ain't looking too good for.ole Barry!

Romney in the biggest landslide ever?  Ever hear of 1984?  49-1 for Reagan?  You are a real fucking moron.

[Wayne Root]

Obama 281-257. I give him OH, NV, IA, MI, WI, PA, and NH. I give Romney FL, CO, NC, and VA. Moving IA and NH to Romney in this scenario still gives Obama the EC victory. Romney could win WI but will still lose without OH

Obama will move heaven and earth to win Ohio. That includes early voting, voter fraud, voting without ID, non-stop ads about how he saved the auto industry, and giving away shit such as Obama-phones. He's done enough in the past four years to win this state, such as increase welfare, food stamps, government dependence, etc. The 47% don't give a shit where the money comes from as long as they get their checks.

Romney winning NV and IA, but losing OH and NH would help create a 269-269 tie. Just saying. Romney could get one electoral vote in ME and win 270-268. It could get crazy.

[garebear]

It will be an exact tie, followed by a cage match.

Obama will win via arm bar in the third round.

MARK MY WORDS. You heard it here first.

[Coach is Back!]

Romney in the biggest landslide ever?  Ever hear of 1984?  49-1 for Reagan?  You are a real fucking moron.

If were any more of a moron I would be a liberal, that being said, there has been no president I'm the history of this country than Obama. Like I said, if he wins , it will be by a slim.margin
, if he loses, its going to be huge. That being said....Fuck you.

Anyone that votes for Obama shows his/her true integrity.

[AbrahamG]

...biggest landslide in American history...

You really want to stand by this?  You fucking dipshit!

[James28]

Up until last week I would've said; Obama by a good margin. Now I'm not sure.

What's funny is that here in Britain the newspapers are slating Romney two days in a row now. Almost viciously so. Naturally, as always, they're trying to sell you an opinion and will be emailing a few editors today pointing out fallacies in their pathetic articles. They're running scared for whatever reason and giving way too much attention to Romney.

At a push I'd say Obama still have a chance, but it's fast diminishing.