Obama 281-257. I give him OH, NV, IA, MI, WI, PA, and NH. I give Romney FL, CO, NC, and VA. Moving IA and NH to Romney in this scenario still gives Obama the EC victory. Romney could win WI but will still lose without OH
Obama will move heaven and earth to win Ohio. That includes early voting, voter fraud, voting without ID, non-stop ads about how he saved the auto industry, and giving away shit such as Obama-phones. He's done enough in the past four years to win this state, such as increase welfare, food stamps, government dependence, etc. The 47% don't give a shit where the money comes from as long as they get their checks.
Romney winning NV and IA, but losing OH and NH would help create a 269-269 tie. Just saying. Romney could get one electoral vote in ME and win 270-268. It could get crazy.