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Author Topic: RCP has moved North Carolina from "leans Romney" back to "Toss Up"  (Read 622 times)
blacken700
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« on: October 26, 2012, 07:48:01 AM »

Whose got momentum now  Grin
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MCWAY
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 08:30:37 AM »

Whose got momentum now  Grin

Answer: Romney!!

At least three polls now have Romney at 50%: Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC/WaPo. CNN may be a fourth one.

Not to mention Romney's is gaining ground in Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire. And Romney's RCP average in Florida has gone up over 2 points, thanks to recent poll that has him up 5.

That is momentum, not an oversampled PPP poll (Dems +9) in NC that has it TIED at 48. Hmmm...I wonder where all those undecideds go.  Roll Eyes
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flipper5470
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 08:32:24 AM »

Latest WaPo survey has Romney with 60% of the white vote...a threshold Liberals have said he would need to win but never, ever achieve...
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2012, 08:33:30 AM »

Latest WaPo survey has Romney with 60% of the white vote...a threshold Liberals have said he would need to win but never, ever achieve...

He'll get more than that, on election day. I posted a thread on this months ago.

If Romney gets about 62% of the white vote, Romney wins this hands down.

But the biggest proof that Romney has the mojo: The Dems are already crafting excuses for an Obama loss.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203897404578078803373321988.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLETopOpinion
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blacken700
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2012, 08:36:49 AM »

Whose got momentum now  Grin


 Cheesy  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy n.c. went from leans romney to toss up be cause romney has momentum  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2012, 08:42:52 AM »


 Cheesy  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy n.c. went from leans romney to toss up be cause romney has momentum  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Three national polls have Romney at 50%.

Romney's is stretching his lead in Florida, gaining strength in Colorado.

Libs are teeing up the excuses for Obama's loss in advance.

Yet, the lone reason NC is back in toss-up: A PPP poll, oversampling Democrats by 9 points (Obama didn't even have that edge in 2008 and he won by about 14,000 votes) that has it......TIED.

Keep flailing in the wind, Blacken. We need the laughs.

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blacken700
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2012, 08:46:55 AM »


Scott Rasmussen said this this morning


                                                                               rass doesnt see it your way mchannity


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College.
 
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2012, 08:50:19 AM »

Scott Rasmussen said this this morning


                                                                               rass doesnt see it your way mchannity


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College.
 


That idea's been floated for at least a week. Again, you're late to the party.

The problem is that's happens only four times, only once where the challenger got at least 50% of the popular vote.

And, it's never occurred with an incumbent president.


And, of course, you left out the context in which Rasmussen made those comments:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/wisconsin_may_be_the_new_ohio

Wisconsin, a state Obama won by 14 is now UP FOR GRABS. The article states how a Wisconsin win gives Romney the ability to win the presidency without Ohio.
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blacken700
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2012, 08:56:38 AM »

That idea's been floated for at least a week. Again, you're late to the party.

The problem is that's happens only four times, only once where the challenger got at least 50% of the popular vote.

And, it's never occurred with an incumbent president.



mchannity spinning again

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spZeJhPrISY" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spZeJhPrISY</a>
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2012, 09:07:44 AM »

mchannity spinning again

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spZeJhPrISY" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spZeJhPrISY</a>

44 men have been president; 4 have won elections without the popular vote; ZERO have been incumbents.

Obama's an incumbent. I don't like his chances.

Rasmussen just reported his Wisconsin poll...it's TIED at 49%. A state Obama won by 14 in 2008 is now TIED.
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2012, 10:16:17 AM »

Three national polls have Romney at 50%.

Romney's is stretching his lead in Florida, gaining strength in Colorado.

Libs are teeing up the excuses for Obama's loss in advance.

Yet, the lone reason NC is back in toss-up: A PPP poll, oversampling Democrats by 9 points (Obama didn't even have that edge in 2008 and he won by about 14,000 votes) that has it......TIED.

Keep flailing in the wind, Blacken. We need the laughs.


PPP may be the lone poll...BUT ITS ALSO THE MOST RECENT POLL.  The other 2 are from weeks ago.  Like I said before...NC is still a hot territory


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A
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2012, 10:17:49 AM »

It's the most recent poll, oversampling by nine for Democrats....yet, it's a TIE.

That usually translates Romney up 4-5.
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blacken700
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2012, 10:19:52 AM »

mchannity must be getting tired running from post to post putting on the mcspin  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2012, 10:22:20 AM »

mchannity must be getting tired running from post to post putting on the mcspin  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You must be tired of jumping on and off poll bandwagons.

48-48 tie, even with Dems oversampled by 9.

As soon as NC goes back to lean Romney, you'll flee yet again, looking for a new flavor of the day.
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blacken700
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2012, 10:25:44 AM »

You must be tired of jumping on and off poll bandwagons.

48-48 tie, even with Dems oversampled by 9.

As soon as NC goes back to lean Romney, you'll flee yet again, looking for a new flavor of the day.

keep on spinning all that momentum is gone for romney,hey but mcspin away  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2012, 10:27:15 AM »

keep on spinning all that momentum is gone for romney,hey but mcspin away  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Gallup: Romney 51-46.

TIED in Wisconsin (Biden's headed there now for a late rally).
 
So much for that momentum being stopped.


And, once Romney goes back up to 50% on WaPo, you will flee yet again.
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2012, 10:30:19 AM »

It's the most recent poll, oversampling by nine for Democrats....yet, it's a TIE.

That usually translates Romney up 4-5.

have polls ALWAYS oversampled dems?   I didn't hear anything about this practice in 2008 when mccain was losing to obama in polls
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blacken700
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2012, 10:31:59 AM »

Gallup: Romney 51-46.

TIED in Wisconsin (Biden's headed there now for a late rally).
 
So much for that momentum being stopped.


And, once Romney goes back up to 50% on WaPo, you will flee yet again.


hahhaa their numbers are so far the other polls,mcspin away  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2012, 10:32:08 AM »

have polls ALWAYS oversampled dems?   I didn't hear anything about this practice in 2008 when mccain was losing to obama in polls

The polls are sampling 2008 turnout which is not going to happen for O-THUG.  

If Obama can't break 50% in polls using 2008 sampling data - he is going to get L A N D S L I D E D
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2012, 10:33:05 AM »

have polls ALWAYS oversampled dems?   I didn't hear anything about this practice in 2008 when mccain was losing to obama in polls

As I asked Straw Man, show me some presidential polls that have oversampled Republicans and you'll have a case to make.

The reason you're hearing about it now is because the jig is up. The bias in certain polls has been exposed. And now that Obama's in trouble, it's the liberals who are now complaining about the polls.


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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2012, 10:41:21 AM »


All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College.
 


I believe this is what may happen.
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2012, 10:42:30 AM »

I believe this is what may happen.

I doubt it. It's only happened four times (winning the presidency without the popular vote) and it's NEVER HAPPENED with an incumbent president.
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2012, 10:44:48 AM »


PPP may be the lone poll...BUT ITS ALSO THE MOST RECENT POLL.  The other 2 are from weeks ago.  Like I said before...NC is still a hot territory


It appears to be as hot as a glacier.

Case in point: Wisconsin is tied; Biden is dispatched there immediately for a late rally.

NC is "tied"....crickets from the Obama administration.....And NC is worth MORE EC VOTES than Wisconsin is (15 vs. 10).
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2012, 10:59:50 AM »

I doubt it. It's only happened four times (winning the presidency without the popular vote) and it's NEVER HAPPENED with an incumbent president.
This is from the Atlantic on Apr 16, 2012

Quote
Obama has an edge. He could lose four swing states he won four years ago -- Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida -- and still end up crossing the magic 270 threshold.

What if Obama were to lose the popular vote but win the electoral college? That's not unheard of. George W. Bush famously lost the popular vote in his 2000 win, and three others have done the same: John Quincy Adams (1824), Rutherford Hayes (1876), and Benjamin Harrison (1888). But no sitting president has ever won reelection while losing the popular vote.

A CNN poll also released Monday has Obama up by 9 points. Romney's favorability is at historic lows for a challenger. Furthermore, it's not popular vote that decides the election, but electoral votes.
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2012, 11:20:45 AM »

There is no way in hell...none whatsoever....that Obama could lose the popular vote in the range gallup is now (5pts) and win the EC.  It just won't happen...
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