Scott Rasmussen: Romney winning PA, MI and/or MN are "REPUBLICAN FANTASIES!"

[The True Adonis]

Sure it is. It's in the polls themselves, shown repeatedly.

It would help if you actually went to the site and read it.

[Hawk]

No way in hell Willard wins Pennsylvania.

MI & MN? I can't see it...sounds like GOP wishful thinking. 

[MCWAY]

It would help if you actually went to the site and read it.

I've been to his site. And, I've seen the polls he used and the way he weighs them.

It would help if you actually saw the internals of the polls and their HUGE Democrat oversampling.


An 80% chance of winning, with Obama bleeding independents, male voters, and losing the early vote? PLEASE!!!

[The True Adonis]

I've been to his site. And, I've seen the polls he used and the way he weighs them.

It would help if you actually saw the internals of the polls and their HUGE Democrat oversampling.


An 80% chance of winning, with Obama bleeding independents, male voters, and losing the early vote? PLEASE!!!

You live in an alternate reality.  Its clear you don`t even read the data he presents.

[The True Adonis]

[The True Adonis]

His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.

[andreisdaman]

I see Obama losing this election unfortunately..I just don't trust the polls.....and as I have said, I really believe that many people who say he /will vote for Obama, ultimately wont...not to mention Obama is not going to get the young vote black vote, female vote or Hispanic vote that he got in 2008 when everyone was excited because he was a fresh face on the scene

[Soul Crusher]

I see Obama losing this election unfortunately..I just don't trust the polls.....and as I have said, I really believe that many people who say he /will vote for Obama, ultimately wont...not to mention Obama is not going to get the young vote black vote, female vote or Hispanic vote that he got in 2008 when everyone was excited because he was a fresh face on the scene

Obama is going to lose massive # out of NY, CT, NJ w the floods etc.   Even if he squeeked out an EC win and lost the popular vote by a few million , his presidency would be mired in stalmate, scandal, lame duck status, and have little or no legitimacy. 

[andreisdaman]

Obama is going to lose massive # out of NY, CT, NJ w the floods etc.   Even if he squeeked out an EC win and lost the popular vote by a few million , his presidency would be mired in stalmate, scandal, lame duck status, and have little or no legitimacy.  

simply not true.......the president of the United States ALWAYS has legitimacy no matter how he gets elected or gets into office.....witness President Ford becoming president simply because Nixon stepped down.....Kennedy becoming president even though he had no experience and was beat out in the popular vote by Nixon.....Bush becoming president due to technicalities in Florida, Clinton becoming president due to the vote being split three ways...Johnson becoming president due to Kennedy's assassination....no one ever questions the credentials of the President

except for the right wing loonies like yourself and the rest of your conservative idiot buddies on here who tried to claim that Obama was not a citizen simply because he was black....

wishful fantasies on your part yet again

[Soul Crusher]

simply not true.......the president of the United States ALWAYS has legitimacy no matter how he gets elected or gets into office.....witness President Ford becoming president simply because Nixon stepped down.....Kennedy becoming president even though he had no experience and was beat out in the popular vote by Nixon.....Bush becoming president due to technicalities in Florida, Clinton becoming president due to the vote being split three ways...Johnson becoming president due to Kennedy's assassination....no one ever questions the credentials of the President

except for the right wing loonies like yourself and the rest of your conservative idiot buddies on here who tried to claim that Obama was not a citizen simply because he was black....

wishful fantasies on your part yet again

Right - remember - "Selected not elected" ? 

[The True Adonis]

I see Obama losing this election unfortunately..I just don't trust the polls.....and as I have said, I really believe that many people who say he /will vote for Obama, ultimately wont...not to mention Obama is not going to get the young vote black vote, female vote or Hispanic vote that he got in 2008 when everyone was excited because he was a fresh face on the scene

The problem with your assessment though is that its just based on your opinion and not consistent with the data or based on any at all.

Obama has a 20 percent chance that he will lose the election and an 80 percent chance that he will win at this point.  Those are the odds.  I`d put my money on the 80 percent before I would the 20.

[MCWAY]

You live in an alternate reality.  Its clear you don`t even read the data he presents.

Wrong again, Adonis. What's clear is that you don't read what's happening, regarding the internals of the polls.

The key points that lead to Obama's win in 2008 are crumbling, one after the other.

Again, he's bleeding independents, male voters, nearly tied with Romney with female voters.

Early voting...NOT going his way. Turnout....LOWER.

And many of those polls you listed are loaded with oversampling of Dems, which has been pointed out REPEATEDLY FOR MONTHS, on this forum. For example:

Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Not to mention, Obama's under 50% in many of those polls, often mired in the mid-40s. Incumbent presidents, stuck in the mid-40s (especially with less than a week to go) TEND TO GET BEATEN.....often badly.

[andreisdaman]

The problem with your assessment though is that its just based on your opinion and not consistent with the data or based on any at all.

Obama has a 20 percent chance that he will lose the election and an 80 percent chance that he will win at this point.  Those are the odds.  I`d put my money on the 80 percent before I would the 20.

I agree with you....my assessment IS FLAWED because as you pointed out, it is simply my opinion......just a gut feeling I have.....I never presented my theory as anything other than that....I hope to God Obama wins....but again...I just do not trust the polls on this one

[240 is Back]

yeah, 'confidence' seems to be going obama's way.  You can see it on the networks.... Morning joe are smirking again, and FOX n friends are jittery and talking excuses and internals and reasons why all the polls are wrong.

On the message boards, you just kinda know the direction it's going... more and more of the national polling orgs with great success rates in 2008 and 2010 are starting to call it for obama. 

On the campaigns, you're seeing obama coasting and avoiding gaffes on the campaign trail.  Romney is speaking 3x a day in FL and making a huge huge Republican club meeting in Ohio, picking up canned goods to be shipping in a rental truck across the country...  that may have been his applesauce moment, in retrospect.

[MCWAY]

yeah, 'confidence' seems to be going obama's way.  You can see it on the networks.... Morning joe are smirking again, and FOX n friends are jittery and talking excuses and internals and reasons why all the polls are wrong.

On the message boards, you just kinda know the direction it's going... more and more of the national polling orgs with great success rates in 2008 and 2010 are starting to call it for obama. 

On the campaigns, you're seeing obama coasting and avoiding gaffes on the campaign trail.  Romney is speaking 3x a day in FL and making a huge huge Republican club meeting in Ohio, picking up canned goods to be shipping in a rental truck across the country...  that may have been his applesauce moment, in retrospect.

In what alternate world are you living?

The analysis of the polls being wrong has been happening FOR MONTHS on Fox. It certainly didn't start this week. Let Morning Joke smirk all he wants.

Let's see: Obama is losing independents, losing his early voting efforts. The male voters? FORGET IT!

The female voters? Romney just about caught him there.

The Obama campaign is regurgitating the Bain stuff in their ads. You have MoveOn.org and Michael Moore, releasing some of the dumbest ads ever seen. That hardly sounds like confidence going Obama's way.

[blacken700]

I'm pretty sure everyone knows.

What Scott Rasmussen is saying isn't at all shocking in the least. It's aucune to some other pollster telling Democrats that MO or Texas are Democrat fantasies.

did you tell mchannity,he didn't know