this election comes down to non-white turnout.
if the turnout is 70-74% white, then Obama wins.
if the turnout is 74 to 78% white, then Romney wins.
The non-white vote is what determines everything. African-American & Hispanic turnout will determine Florida - and if Obama wins FL, it's over. If Romney wins FL, then he already has virgina, Colorado, and a few other swing states and he wins it, even without Ohio.
They showed a LOT of numbers comparing obama to bush 2004 - approval rating, nat'l tied, etc etc. And Kerry's negatives were high like Romney's.
I am predicting Romney delivers the upset due to poor turnout for Obama. While Obama is up to 67.4% on Intrade, he was at 95+% at this time in 2008. Just 2/1 favorite, I'd bet on the challenger.