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Author Topic: Why gold is falling even as global economic fears intensify  (Read 8403 times)
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« on: April 16, 2013, 09:45:32 AM »

April 16, 2013

FORTUNE – As gold plunges to new two-year lows, a paradox has emerged: The decline reflects better news in the U.S. economy, but it also suggests bad news in other parts of the world as bullion loses its luster as a safe-haven investment.

After rising for 11 consecutive years, the price of gold started falling steadily in October. Its downward spiral has intensified, with prices falling by 5% on Friday, officially entering bear market territory. The sell-off continued Monday, as prices dropped by more than 9% to $1,361.70 an ounce.

Historically, many investors think of gold as an alternative investment when economic times get tough. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with its monstrous debt problems.

Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 an ounce, but prices have since fallen 24% on signs that the U.S. economy is recovering. Home prices have steadily risen. And since the start of the year, the U.S. stock market has soared to record highs as investors turned to riskier investments. But while the U.S. appears to be doing better, signs in China and Europe look so troubling that investors don't seem very convinced gold will guard them from losses.

Last week, gold plunged on worries that debt-troubled Cyprus would sell a big chunk of its gold reserves to foot the bill for portions of a bailout. This has spurred fears that other European countries struggling with high debts, particularly Italy, Spain, and Portugal, might also sell some gold reserves.

And on Monday, the sell-off continued after China -- the world's biggest buyer of gold besides India -- reported slower-than-expected growth. During the start of the year, the Chinese economy grew 7.7%, lower than the government's targeted 8% growth rate and by far a big drop from the double-digit annual growth it had seen over three decades. Investors worried that Chinese consumers, faced with less cash, may buy less gold. What's more, if China's economy continues to significantly slow, it will affect economies across the world and hurt exporters of raw materials that have come to demand on surging Chinese demand over the past decade.

In a report last week, Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its three-month price target for an ounce of gold to $1,530 from $1,615 and lowered its 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550. This followed Societe Generale's April 2 note calling gold a "bubble." The bank, along with Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), are among those forecasting lower average prices in 2014 than this year.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/16/gold-price-outlook/?source=cnn_bin
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2013, 09:51:12 AM »

As I type this, 24KT is furiously typing a missive about how now is the time to buy gold, a gram at a time, fears about a bubble aside.
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2013, 02:50:53 PM »

As I type this, 24KT is furiously typing a missive about how now is the time to buy gold, a gram at a time, fears about a bubble aside.

LOL, ...a proper response requires switching from iPad to desktop.
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2013, 03:21:20 PM »

I still don't see the reason to get rid of any of my gold what little I have. I'll stick to gold rather than the fictitious paper money produced by Amreeka. The multi trillion dollar indebted country that thinks it owns real stuff. The country that think its wealthy and that thinks its free. lol. Hollywood is the best America has produced, selling dreams and fantasies. I'll give em that.
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2013, 03:36:09 PM »

OK, am on the desktop, ...am cracking my knuckles, ...and sufficiently warming up my fingers before hitting the keyboard. See ya in 2 mins.  Cheesy
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2013, 03:49:58 PM »

Personally, I am quite happy about what has been taking place. I have already gone on record as saying I hope the price continues to fall. As far as I am concerned, this is one of the best weeding tools myself and my colleagues can have to separate those who think they way we do. They'll recognize this as the buying opportunity we view it to be.

The sell-off taking place right now is in ETF's NOT the physical bullion we deal in.

It has been rumoured & speculated that it was a default at he LBMA that resulted in the need for the smash down. If that turns out to be the case, ...we could very well see the decoupling of paper from physical sooner than we think. Personally, I'd like it to be later rather than sooner, ...and I'd like to see the price fall much, much, lower.

I feel bad for those who may be tempted to sell their physical gold as a result of this paper sell off. However a default only exposes the inherent scam of the ETF's to begin with.

IMO, the true value of an ounce of gold is NOT the spot price, ...but rather the spot price x 100 (the amount of times that ounce of gold is sold in the ETF market.

I also believe the sell off highlights and will shake out all the people who bought gold for all the wrong reasons. Those who are following the same strategy as myself ... using gold as a LONG TERM store of value, or as a form of INSURANCE, NOT as an investment, are not at all phased by recent occurances. They will even actively embrace and be grateful for it.

I'm not at all worried.  I do have to admit though... I was surprised to the extent that it has gone down. I thought it was consolidating very nicely and poised for a break out... oh well. but again, ...not at all phased.

I'm glad the ETF's could soon be exposed for the scam I believe them to be. To quote a girlfriend of mine... "I have 4 gold crayons at home worth more than a gold ETF". lol.  Grin
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2013, 03:55:04 PM »

I still don't see the reason to get rid of any of my gold what little I have. I'll stick to gold rather than the fictitious paper money produced by Amreeka. The multi trillion dollar indebted country that thinks it owns real stuff. The country that think its wealthy and that thinks its free. lol. Hollywood is the best America has produced, selling dreams and fantasies. I'll give em that.

That's because you were smart enough to have acquired PHYSICAL gold, rather than the bogus ETF vapourware put out there.

You have major press coverage of big boys like George Soros selling off their gold, ...but what they neglect to mention is that what he's selling are gold ETF's, ...and they neglect to mention that while he's selling off his gold ETF's high, ...he's quietly acquiring the physical bullion at the resulting low prices brought about by the paper sell off. LOL!
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2013, 04:08:56 PM »

Personally, I am quite happy about what has been taking place.

Of course you are. You're happy when gold goes up, you're happy when gold goes down. It's unclear why that is, but hey, as long as you're happy!


I have already gone on record as saying I hope the price continues to fall. As far as I am concerned, this is one of the best weeding tools myself and my colleagues can have to separate those who think they way we do. They'll recognize this as the buying opportunity we view it to be.

Your "colleagues"? That's a funny way to refer to others who bought into this nonsense that gold will, any day now, become the preferred medium of exchange and ought to be stockpiled a gram at a time.


The sell-off taking place right now is in ETF's NOT the physical bullion we deal in.

Perhaps it is. I don't see the difference one way or the other: the spot price for an ounce of gold is dropping faster than a free-falling ounce of lead Grin


I feel bad for those who may be tempted to sell their physical gold as a result of this paper sell off. However a default only exposes the inherent scam of the ETF's to begin with.

Why are ETFs a scam? Not everyone cares to hoard gold under their mattress, and ETFs allow people who are inclined to own gold to do so in a form much more convenient: purely electronic. I know, you don't like this electronic mumbo jumbo and only feel safe when you have the real thing there, so that you can trade it with the many businesses that will accept bullion any day now! Wink


IMO, the true value of an ounce of gold is NOT the spot price, ...but rather the spot price x 100 (the amount of times that ounce of gold is sold in the ETF market.

The true value of an ounce of gold is whatever the market thinks it is. How about a bet? I'll bet you that the price of gold will have crossed the $1,300 threshold by July. If it does, then you pay me $1,300 (U.S. dollars, in cash please). If it doesn't, I'll deliver a shiny one ounce gold maple coin to you. I'm even willing to send the coin today to a respected getbigger to hold in escrow.


I'm glad the ETF's could soon be exposed for the scam I believe them to be. To quote a girlfriend of mine... "I have 4 gold crayons at home worth more than a gold ETF". lol.  Grin

Does your girlfriend have a background in economics or did she graduate with a degree in advanced crayoning?
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2013, 04:09:27 PM »

Real buying opportunities are lurking on the horizon.

Again, gold is NOT an investment. It IS insurance. With gold in the portfolio, I'm insulated from governmental stupidity.

Gold crushed by 400 tonnes or $20 billion of selling on COMEX

Ross Norman
April 15, 2013


The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract (see below) in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level... the line in the sand.

Two hours later the initial selling, rumored to have been routed through Merrill Lynch's floor team, by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market - it had the hallmarks of a concerted 'short sale', which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of 'shock & awe' - would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell as their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called 'stopped-out' in market parlance - probably hidden the unimpeachable (?) $1540 level.

The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production - too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold's non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data. The assault to the short side was essentially saying "you are long... and wrong".

Futures trading is performed on a margined basis - that is to say you have to stump up about 5% of the actual cost of the gold itself making futures trades a highly geared 'opportunity' of about 20:1 - easy profit and also loss ! Futures trading is not a product for widows and orphans. The CME's 10% reduction in the required gold margins in November 2012 from $9133/contract to just $7425/contract made the market more accessible to those wishing both to go long or as it transpired, to go short. Soon after we saw the first serious assault to the downside in Dec 2012, followed by further bouts in January 2013 - modest in size compared to the recent shorting but effective - it laid the ground for what was to follow. One fund in particular, based in Stamford Connecticut, was identified as the previous shorter of gold and has a history of being caught on the wrong side of the law on a few occasions. As badies go - they fit the bill nicely.

The value of the 400 tonnes of gold sold is approximately $20 billion but because it is margined, this short bet would require them to stump up just $1b. The rationale for the trade was clear - excessively bullish forecasts by many banks in Q4 seemed unsupported by follow through buying. The modest short selling in Jan 2013 had prompted little response from the longs - raising questions about their real commitment. By forcing the market lower the Fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie ; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.

This now leaves the gold market in an interesting conundrum - the shorter is now nursing a large gold position and, like the longs also exposed - that is to say the market is polarized between longs and shorts and they cannot both be right. Either the gold bulls - like in a game of tug-of-war - pull back and prompt the shorters to panic and buy back - or they do nothing, in which case the endless stories about the "end of gold" will see a steady further erosion in prices. At the end of the day it is a question of who has got the biggest guns - the shorts have made their play - let's see if there is any response from the longs to defend their position.



Going over the figures in my back office, ...looks like a lot of people actually "get it"   Smiley

Personally, I think the "longs" are waiting to see how far down it will go before making their move.
No doubt the algorithmic traders are siphoning off the money, and the people who got into gold for all the wrong reasons (speculators) are having panic attacks, heart attacks, and getting fleeced.
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« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2013, 04:15:08 PM »

April 16, 2013

FORTUNE – As gold plunges to new two-year lows, a paradox has emerged: The decline reflects better news in the U.S. economy, but it also suggests bad news in other parts of the world as bullion loses its luster as a safe-haven investment.

After rising for 11 consecutive years, the price of gold started falling steadily in October. Its downward spiral has intensified, with prices falling by 5% on Friday, officially entering bear market territory. The sell-off continued Monday, as prices dropped by more than 9% to $1,361.70 an ounce.

Historically, many investors think of gold as an alternative investment when economic times get tough. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with its monstrous debt problems.

Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 an ounce, but prices have since fallen 24% on signs that the U.S. economy is recovering. Home prices have steadily risen. And since the start of the year, the U.S. stock market has soared to record highs as investors turned to riskier investments. But while the U.S. appears to be doing better, signs in China and Europe look so troubling that investors don't seem very convinced gold will guard them from losses.

Last week, gold plunged on worries that debt-troubled Cyprus would sell a big chunk of its gold reserves to foot the bill for portions of a bailout. This has spurred fears that other European countries struggling with high debts, particularly Italy, Spain, and Portugal, might also sell some gold reserves.

And on Monday, the sell-off continued after China -- the world's biggest buyer of gold besides India -- reported slower-than-expected growth. During the start of the year, the Chinese economy grew 7.7%, lower than the government's targeted 8% growth rate and by far a big drop from the double-digit annual growth it had seen over three decades. Investors worried that Chinese consumers, faced with less cash, may buy less gold. What's more, if China's economy continues to significantly slow, it will affect economies across the world and hurt exporters of raw materials that have come to demand on surging Chinese demand over the past decade.

In a report last week, Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its three-month price target for an ounce of gold to $1,530 from $1,615 and lowered its 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550. This followed Societe Generale's April 2 note calling gold a "bubble." The bank, along with Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), are among those forecasting lower average prices in 2014 than this year.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/16/gold-price-outlook/?source=cnn_bin

China sold 800 tons of Gold paper....BUT bough and took delivery on 500 tons physical. All you need to know.
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« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2013, 04:36:33 PM »

Of course you are. You're happy when gold goes up, you're happy when gold goes down. It's unclear why that is, but hey, as long as you're happy!

Absolutely Cheesy
Things have a way of working out best for people who make the best of the way things work out. Grin

Your "colleagues"? That's a funny way to refer to others who bought into this nonsense that gold will, any day now, become the preferred medium of exchange and ought to be stockpiled a gram at a time.

The people I refer to as "Colleagues" are those who also use gold as INSURANCE, and accumulate it in smaller, more transaction friendly weights in order to maintain maximum flexibility.

Perhaps it is. I don't see the difference one way or the other: the spot price for an ounce of gold is dropping faster than a free-falling ounce of lead Grin

Yes it is... and the spot price measured in ounces denotes the price for ETF gold which currently dominates & dictates the price for currency grade physical gold. This to me indicates a problem with the paper gold market, that could result in it's decoupling from physical. IMO the result will be the inevitable true price discovery for the physical market. In the meantime, I'm content to allow the paper market to dominate the price for physical. it affords me a greater opportunity to acquire more of it.

Why are ETFs a scam? Not everyone cares to hoard gold under their mattress, and ETFs allow people who are inclined to own gold to do so in a form much more convenient: purely electronic.

It is a scam in my estimation because as much as 99% of the gold traded via ETFs does not even exist. That in itself is fraudulent. Taking something real from someone, in exchange for something you do not have and never will have, in the hopes of all the people you took something real from, do not require you to produce the goods. It is just one big casino where every one nudges each other and winks, and manipulates the game of musical chairs. in the end, the music always stops, and the real money is siphoned off and divvied up.

I know, you don't like this electronic mumbo jumbo and only feel safe when you have the real thing there, so that you can trade it with the many businesses that will accept bullion any day now! Wink

Who in their right mind would feel safe paying money for vapourware in a rigged game?

The true value of an ounce of gold is whatever the market thinks it is.

Right you are. I stand corrected. What I should have said it that the true current value of gold to the ETF gold cartel is the spot price X 100

How about a bet? I'll bet you that the price of gold will have crossed the $1,300 threshold by July. If it does, then you pay me $1,300 (U.S. dollars, in cash please). If it doesn't, I'll deliver a shiny one ounce gold maple coin to you. I'm even willing to send the coin today to a respected getbigger to hold in escrow.

LOL. There you go away with the offer to bet. No thanks. but I will keep my fingers crossed that it does... for both our sakes. I'll get my gold more economically, ...and you can have your bragging rights which I just know you will want to rub my nose in constantly. .. won't you? Cheesy


Does your girlfriend have a background in economics or did she graduate with a degree in advanced crayoning?

Well she has a few kids, and the most adorable and special little grandson, so I will assume she has an advanced degree in crayoning. Cheesy
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« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2013, 04:39:14 PM »

China sold 800 tons of Gold paper....BUT bough and took delivery on 500 tons physical. All you need to know.

It's not just China that's doing it. Central banks are as well... all the while talking gold down to the general public, ...even encouraging them to sell gold.  Cry

I see it as the lambs being led to the slaughter, ...and if not slaughter, ...certainly the fleecing. 
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2013, 04:56:39 PM »

Kitco.com forums great place
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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2013, 05:00:22 PM »

Kitco.com forums great place

Yep, I know.
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2013, 05:17:52 PM »

In other Global Currency Trends ... Cheesy
Gold Rebounds on Bargain Hunting; Bears May Be Exhausted
by Jim Wykoff
Tuesday April 16, 2013 2:15 PM


Gold prices posted solid gains in calmer trading conditions Tuesday, following Monday’s chaos. Bargain hunters stepped in after prices fell to a 26-month low of $1,321.50 an ounce overnight, basis June Comex futures. Heavy physical buying in Asia overnight helped to boost gold prices Tuesday. June Comex gold last traded up $21.50 at $1,382.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $29.90 at $1,383.00.  May Comex silver last traded up $0.194 at $23.56 an ounce.

Emotions were less frayed Tuesday as gold rebounded well off its overnight two-plus-year low. However, there remains a bit keener anxiety in the market place, with much for traders and investor to ponder as the week plays out. This week’s price action in many markets, including gold and silver, will likely be extra important for price direction in the coming weeks. How markets close on Friday (near their weekly highs or weekly lows) could be a harbinger of price action in the particular market for the coming weeks, or a bit longer.

Reports overnight said physical demand for gold all across Asia increased sharply following the recent plunge in gold prices. Major gold consumers China and India saw their citizens snapping up gold jewelry and bars as prices reached two-year lows. Some retail stores in Asia ran out of gold products for sale. The big jump in demand for physical gold helped stop the bleeding in the gold market.

The U.S. dollar index was solidly lower Tuesday, and that was also a positive for the precious metals markets. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady Tuesday, but well off the overnight low that was a fresh 9.5-month low. These two key “outside markets” will continue to have an impact on the daily price movement of the precious metals markets.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,380.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,395.00.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Tuesday. Bulls are still in serious technical trouble, but they were able to stabilize the market Tuesday. Tuesday’s high-range close does suggest the bears have become exhausted with the recent extreme downside price action. Still, major near-term and longer-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Gold prices are in a six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,404.20 and then at $1,425.00. First support is seen at $1,350.00 and then at Monday’s low of $1,335.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0



No wonder my back office is blowing up today. People know that my supplier is offering gold at yesterday's prices, and if they wait to buy tomorrow, they will have to pay today's higher price. gotta love dollar cost averaging.  Smiley
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2013, 06:17:10 PM »

basically everything posted solid gains today brainchild...

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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2013, 06:36:43 PM »

It is a scam in my estimation because as much as 99% of the gold traded via ETFs does not even exist. That in itself is fraudulent. Taking something real from someone, in exchange for something you do not have and never will have, in the hopes of all the people you took something real from, do not require you to produce the goods. It is just one big casino where every one nudges each other and winks, and manipulates the game of musical chairs. in the end, the music always stops, and the real money is siphoned off and divvied up.

It's unclear why you say it does not exist. Can you elaborate, providing some specifics and facts? And please, keep in mind that not every gold ETF is about physical gold.


LOL. There you go away with the offer to bet. No thanks. but I will keep my fingers crossed that it does... for both our sakes. I'll get my gold more economically, ...and you can have your bragging rights which I just know you will want to rub my nose in constantly. .. won't you? Cheesy

Oh come on... let's bet for fun and profit! And yes, yes I will Wink
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« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2013, 06:43:35 PM »

This is a buying opportunity.  Anyone that believes the economy is in recovery will be proven to be a sucker.
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« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2013, 06:44:58 PM »

A simple rule in life... If you can't hold it....you don't own it. This applies to paper gold and oil as well as all paper traded financial instruments.
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« Reply #19 on: April 16, 2013, 06:49:14 PM »

A simple rule in life... If you can't hold it....you don't own it. This applies to paper gold and oil as well as all paper traded financial instruments.
if you really believed that you would stock up on guns and ammo and not gold.

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« Reply #20 on: April 16, 2013, 06:52:04 PM »

if you really believed that you would stock up on guns and ammo and not gold.



I have a HUGE amount of those...I'm a partner in pawn shop and we are an FFL....lol
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« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2013, 07:19:32 PM »

basically everything posted solid gains today brainchild...


Yes it did, ...and that is precisely WHY my back office is blowing up TODAY with people backing up their pickup trucks and loading up as much as they can. TODAY Karatbars are selling based on YESTERDAY's lower price. If people waited until tomorrow to buy, the price paid for Karatbars would be even higher, because the price tomorrow will reflect the solid gains made today.

There's no need to attempt to insult.
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« Reply #22 on: April 16, 2013, 07:26:27 PM »

Yes it did, ...and that is precisely WHY my back office is blowing up TODAY with people backing up their pickup trucks and loading up as much as they can. TODAY Karatbars are selling based on YESTERDAY's lower price. If people waited until tomorrow to buy, the price paid for Karatbars would be even higher, because the price tomorrow will reflect the solid gains made today.

There's no need to attempt to insult.

People are loading up their pickup trucks with gold a gram or two at a time encased in credit-card sized chunks of plastic? What would a a one gram gold bar cost me right now?
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« Reply #23 on: April 16, 2013, 07:27:53 PM »

It's unclear why you say it does not exist. Can you elaborate, providing some specifics and facts? And please, keep in mind that not every gold ETF is about physical gold.

That is soooo my point exactly!
It's not based on physical gold, it is speculative vapourware.




Oh come on... let's bet for fun and profit! And yes, yes I will Wink


Let's not, ...I'm not much of a gambler  Wink

And I know you would. I could just see you now with a great big shit-eating grin on your face...
You'd be more orgasmic than Benny & Strawman confronting 333386 the day after the election. LOL  Grin
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« Reply #24 on: April 16, 2013, 07:32:21 PM »

People are loading up their pickup trucks with gold a gram or two at a time encased in credit-card sized chunks of plastic? What would a a one gram gold bar cost me right now?

Go to tulving.com and look it up...although 1 gram might be a stretch to find...but a 1oz Pamp should be easy.
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