90% the Gay 4 Pay, you just can't be that out there with it, and win. It would signal Weider Group's tacit approval of the underbelly of bodybuilding, so you give him the safe place of second that rewards him, but doesn't let him be the face of bodybuilding.
5% Incumbent factor, you real have to blow the current winner off the stage to win. If you're just edging him out, or it's a toss up, it will usually go to the incumbent. Also see grapefruit factor.
5% Phil being more relateable to everyone. He's arrogant, but he's sort of got an all American boy factor happening. I like Kai, but he's a wild one. Phil is more toward the center, so it attracts more on average.