Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

Obsidian - I believe I explained to you earlier, there is not really any "alt" to Bitcoin in terms of Bitcoin's function of universal money and a universal decentralized store of value. Indeed the use of the term "alt" is misnomer insofar as it suggests there are alternatives, similar to Bitcoin, for this purpose. It of course is very appealing to alt-losers / idiots and fools / gamblers / suckers etc, to believe that they can get "something as good as Bitcoin" (or even "better than Bitcoin"), for a cheaper price. We all know this is a load of nonsense. United in an agreed universal store of value we thrive, divided and diluted we fall - a very basic economic concept. You can devote all the effort you like to promote shitcoins - ultimately you will fail. You would be far better off aligning your efforts with promoting the adoption of Bitcoin, and thriving from the ongoing adoption of a long term trend.

Most of the so-called "alts" are actually, if anything, alternatives to a shareholding in listed companies (albeit companies which are very risky, and typically outright scams with zero prospect of long term success).  They are shares, represented by "tokens", in ventures/projects, which have not been registered securities, despite US securities law requiring this to be done.

The US stock market has thrived over the decades because of regulation and oversight providing investor protection and certainty, resulting in the attraction of investor capital from all around the world. Unregistered securities primarily benefit the issuer at huge risk to any investor. So it is quite right that for public offerings to US investors, companies seeking investor funds should comply with the law.

GIB, I think Bitcoin is a sound investment. But I don't agree that it is the only investment and nothing else is an option.

You've heard of the Kennedy Shoeshine Boy story.

https://www.pitzlfinancial.com/blog/ode-shoeshine-boy#:~:text=In%201929%2C%20at%20the%20height,of%20his%20favorite%20stock%20picks.

"In 1929, at the height of an economic boom in America, Joseph Kennedy Sr. (father of JFK) was working as a stockbroker on Wall Street. As the story goes, Joseph was walking around when he decided to sit down for a shoeshine. While polishing his shoes, the young worker gave Joseph some of his favorite stock picks. When Joseph heard the shoeshine boy giving out stock tips, he figured the party was about to end, and it was time to get out of the market. Joseph proceeded to exit his positions in the market and bought short positions that bet on the market going down.

Shortly after that, the stock market entered a free fall. On Monday, October 28, 1929, the market dropped about 13%. The next day it fell another 12%. These became better known as Black Monday and Black Tuesday, and ushered the United States into The Great Depression."

There's a saying that you should buy something when nobody is talking about it and sell when everyone talks about it. Most crypto influencers are only promoting Bitcoin. The average Joe on the street only knows about Bitcoin. And that's where they are missing out on getting into other crypto projects that will most likely result in bigger gains. Yes, you're still early if you buy Bitcoin now. And even more so for Ethereum, Solana, and a few others.

It's likely that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in a bull market. And Solana will outperform Ethereum. Bitcoin has a larger market cap and requires more money to flow into the project to move the price. Solana has a smaller market cap and already dumped hard after the FTX fiasco. But it has a thriving community / network effect, is fast (albeit more centralized and prone to shutdowns), and has institutional interest. It's more risky than Bitcoin, but with risk comes the chance of a bigger reward. I currently don't own any Solana but I might look into getting some in 2024.

Ethereum has a really interesting tokenomics right now. We have not yet seen how deflationary it will become in a true bull market. Its inflation has been lower than Bitcoin since the Merge. Long-term Bitcoin's finite supply gives it an edge because it is still unknown what Ethereum's supply will be in the future. Some might argue that lower fees will reduce the amount of ETH burned. Then again, if more transactions occur, it would make up for the lack of ETH burning. What's the use case for ETH L2s If ETH gas fees are lowered significantly in future upgrades? See below...

https://medium.com/blockchain-biz/will-ethereum-2-0-render-existing-layer-2-solutions-obsolete-143c9f98330c

Can Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2 Solutions Co-Exist?
Let’s take a moment to reflect on the purpose of the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade and existing Layer 2 solutions built on the Ethereum network. At their core, each of these are focused on trying to solve the same issue — scalability.

Layer 2 solutions were built first primarily to solve for the bottlenecks occurring on Ethereum’s base layer. However, once Ethereum 2.0 is in motion, what purpose will Layer 2s serve if the base layer they were built to scale is now exponentially more efficient itself? Will Layer 2s become obsolete as a result?

To answer this question, it is helpful to reflect on Ethereum’s vision, which is to bring Ethereum into the mainstream and serve all of humanity. This is a grand vision and one that requires scaling for a future that contemplates much more than 4% of the total population owning crypto. Even if the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is able to significantly expand the network’s throughput, it is still questionable whether it would be able to support a future world with billions of potential daily crypto users without becoming congested.

The relationship between Ethereum 2.0 and its existing Layer 2 solutions is therefore likely to be symbiotic. This implies a world with different scaling solutions working in harmony, allowing for an exponential effect on future transaction speeds and throughput. It is these combined effects, and not one or the other, that Ethereum is planning for in order to achieve its vision.

[Theoak*]

GIB, I think Bitcoin is a sound investment. But I don't agree that it is the only investment and nothing else is an option.

Risk is everything in investing, of course there are assets that will outperform Bitcoin but it’s impossible to know which

It’s like saying the returns of powerball can beat a Vanguard index fund. It’s true but irresponsible to suggest as a strategy.

You can cherry pick numerous examples from many asset classes over many timeframes to make various points. ABC shitcoin might outperform it over any 1, 2, or 3 year period looking forward.

I would challenge you to find a single asset of any type that has better risk/reward characteristics looking forward

[gib]

Agree, and @Theoak, I would you are really mixing up asset classes when comparing Bitcoin with other investment schemes you call "crypto".

Bitcoin is a cryptographic currency. Its role is to act as the world's digital medium of exchange and store of value.

As I have mentioned earlier, the other assets you have mentioned, are more akin to a shareholding in unlisted companies (albeit companies which are very risky, and typically outright scams with zero prospect of long term success).  They are shares, represented by "tokens", in ventures/projects, which have not been registered securities, despite US securities law requiring this to be done. They are most certainly not pure currencies, although they do have tokens representing an ownership an a venture, which can be traded. (The main probem here, is that almost all such ventures are absolute BS, or trade at a value no where close to the market cap of the tokens. FileCoin might be a rare exception here, but even there, FileCoin, whist an amazing venture, is certainly not "cheap" by traditional VC valuation standards, although it is one of the most "legit" ventures I have analyzed, represented by electronically tradable tokens).

That is not to say that an investment in art, or gold, or shares or property or unregistered securities or lottery tickets may not be successful. They might well be, especially if you happen to "get lucky". Of all these assets, those where an investor really knows what they are doing, and can add value with their analysis, include property and stocks, less so in gold, even less so in art, and once you get into the "crypto / lottery tickets" you really are kidding yourself if you think you know what you are doing in terms of having any hope of trying to calculate and justify your "investment" on fundamental value (although possibly at a very macro level you can do OK - ie like now, knowing that BTC's rise will float all boats due to scam victims still not understanding how alt promoters schill BTC value into empty alt promises).

The sly part of the alt scam, is convincing innocent suckers that the tokens being issued are somehow an "alternative" to Bitcoin. They are not. Happens every cycle, and every cycle, these "investors" end up eventually getting brutally raped. In terms of BTC's purpose and goals, we are as GetBiggers all much much better off aligning our focus to BTC. United we stand, united we thrive.

[gib]

Just blasted through 43K...

Reminds me of the good old days at the beginning of the prior BTC cycle back in 2019, during the 3K price moving up to 5K price phase (which ultimately peaked at 64K). Only this time, 4 years later in the next cycle, (we have an added zero), 30K moving up to 50K phase. Time will tell if we peak at 640K...

I am by no means a fan of charts, but the chart does look like a God-candle is possibly forming.

[obsidian]

Just blasted through 43K...

Reminds me of the good old days at the beginning of the prior BTC cycle back in 2019, during the 3K price moving up to 5K price phase (which ultimately peaked at 64K). Only this time, 4 years later in the next cycle, (we have an added zero), 30K moving up to 50K phase. Time will tell if we peak at 640K...

I am by no means a fan of charts, but the chart does look like a God-candle is possibly forming.

BTC is on a roll for sure. At 43.5K now. Maybe it will shoot up to 50K soon. Will be interesting to see if BTC breaks the ATH price before the halving next year.

ETH is not doing too shabby either, right behind BTC. It will be hilarious if ETH also breaks an ATH before the halving. Time will tell.

Glad for all the BTC holders. I won't begrudge anyone making gains, no matter which project they have invested in! One day I will get into BTC. Not via FIAT, but via crypto trades. I also plan on getting some Solana and Chainlink. Maybe some degen stuff like PEPE and Shiba. But small amounts...

[gib]

Quite something that BTC, with a much larger market cap, is outperforming smaller "alts" despite it being far easier for an alt to move in % terms due to its relatively smaller cap. Again, a great bullish signal, indicating money in the "crypto ecosystem" is moving into a quality asset over time.

Retail investors (and obviously the institutional investors of finance) are understanding that Bitcoin is not crypto.

Obsidian - the best advice I can give to you, or anyone, is simply to stack and HODL. Imagine reading this thread in 10 years time how you will feel if you don't start now. You still have a massive head start over most the rest of the world, both in terms of knowledge, access to Sats, and access to money to convert into Sats. Do not squander this very obvious opportunity.

[deadz]

Quite something that BTC, with a much larger market cap, is outperforming smaller "alts" despite it being far easier for an alt to move in % terms due to its relatively smaller cap. Again, a great bullish signal, indicating money in the "crypto ecosystem" is moving into a quality asset over time.

Retail investors (and obviously the institutional investors of finance) are understanding that Bitcoin is not crypto.

Obsidian - the best advice I can give to you, or anyone, is simply to stack and HODL. Imagine reading this thread in 10 years time how you will feel if you don't start now. You still have a massive head start over most the rest of the world, both in terms of knowledge, access to Sats, and access to money to convert into Sats. Do not squander this very obvious opportunity.

LOL

[Slapper]

Folks, reminder: Don’t let the charlatans separate you from your (future) money.

There is a very high possibility that,  because we fell short in last bull market (price-wise,) we’re going to make up for it big time. This blow off top looks and sounds like it’s going to be insane.

[Theoak*]

Quite something that BTC, with a much larger market cap, is outperforming smaller "alts" despite it being far easier for an alt to move in % terms due to its relatively smaller cap. Again, a great bullish signal, indicating money in the "crypto ecosystem" is moving into a quality asset over time.

Retail investors (and obviously the institutional investors of finance) are understanding that Bitcoin is not crypto.

Obsidian - the best advice I can give to you, or anyone, is simply to stack and HODL. Imagine reading this thread in 10 years time how you will feel if you don't start now. You still have a massive head start over most the rest of the world, both in terms of knowledge, access to Sats, and access to money to convert into Sats. Do not squander this very obvious opportunity.

This is not retail  buying.

[gib]

This is not retail  buying.

Combination of both retail, institutional, and sovereign wealth funds.

We know for sure that long term retail Bitcoiners continue to HODL and accumulate Sats.

We know that some who were in and now out (in last cycle) are sensing its time to re-enter.

We also know that first time retail buyers are also entering, Mums and Dads and Taxi drivers etc becoming interested again.
 
With everyone HODLing, it does not take much additional demand to move price.

Of course we have more nimble family offices, HNWs, and hedge funds accumulating. And we see some larger wallets accumulating also (quite possibly institutional).

And we have evidence (and also rumors) that various Governments are buying (or considering  - for example the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar is rumored to be poised to make a half trillion investment in Bitcoin - if that really happens, the impact on price, and on global interest in this asset, will be mind-blowing.)

But the really big driver, over time, in the immediate future, will be the US BTC ETF's. If we really see approvals next year, this will be a game changer in terms of funds consistently flowing in.

[Theoak*]

Combination of both retail, institutional, and sovereign wealth funds.

We know for sure that long term retail Bitcoiners continue to HODL and accumulate Sats.

We know that some who were in and now out (in last cycle) are sensing its time to re-enter.

We also know that first time retail buyers are also entering, Mums and Dads and Taxi drivers etc becoming interested again.
 
With everyone HODLing, it does not take much additional demand to move price.

Of course we have more nimble family offices, HNWs, and hedge funds accumulating. And we see some larger wallets accumulating also (quite possibly institutional).

And we have evidence (and also rumors) that various Governments are buying (or considering  - for example the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar is rumored to be poised to make a half trillion investment in Bitcoin - if that really happens, the impact on price, and on global interest in this asset, will be mind-blowing.)

But the really big driver, over time, in the immediate future, will be the US BTC ETF's. If we really see approvals next year, this will be a game changer in terms of funds consistently flowing in.

They dont have disposable income or stimmy checks. This is not the same market micro-structure as 2020.

This is all institutional and OG crypto money on the move.

Majority retail will come later on, like usual, late to the party.

[affeman]

BTC is on a roll for sure. At 43.5K now. Maybe it will shoot up to 50K soon. Will be interesting to see if BTC breaks the ATH price before the halving next year.

The experts agree that the halving at this point won't have any significant influence on the price anymore.

I guess the upcoming ETF might pump it up one last time slightly above the all-time high, and after that, the BTC/Crypto craze will eventually die off once and for all...

[gib]

They dont have disposable income or stimmy checks. This is not the same market micro-structure as 2020.

This is all institutional and OG crypto money on the move.

Majority retail will come later on, like usual, late to the party.

I would say we will also see many conservative yet huge sources of institutional wealth come in over time (and yes of course many retail investors. The good thing is that if BTC's rise in infinitely up against fiat over time, then its never "too late" to enter.

But entry point will of course influence total % gain. You know the old saying - "Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.."

[gib]

The experts agree that the halving at this point won't have any significant influence on the price anymore.

I guess the upcoming ETF might pump it up one last time slightly above the all-time high, and after that, the BTC/Crypto craze will eventually die off once and for all...

2 comments .

1. "Bitcoin, not crypto". Learn the distinction. Others will also.

2. Any halving, in theory should be "priced in". In reality, for many reasons, its not. Very simply, if demand remains constant, and new supply suddenly halves, then the price for that halved supply will increase.

[Slapper]

Folks, retail isn’t even in yet. Let’s just say I work on the retail side (although I deal with institutional business) for one of the big 3 financial services firms in the world and have seen very little change in the positions held at DTC from a year ago to now.

Retail is going to come once the ETFs are approved.

Oh, and another thing, the ETF approvals are not going to be sell-the-news events. There are millions of retirement accounts out there, with hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars in them, waiting to go in. Once that happens, we will see Bitcoin hot numbers we thought were impossible. Don’t confuse a futures product, which is an institutional toy, to an ETF.

[gib]

Folks, retail isn’t even in yet. Let’s just say I work on the retail side (although I deal with institutional business) for one of the big 3 financial services firms in the world and have seen very little change in the positions held at DTC from a year ago to now.

Retail is going to come once the ETFs are approved.

Oh, and another thing, the ETF approvals are not going to be sell-the-news events. There are millions of retirement accounts out there, with hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars in them, waiting to go in. Once that happens, we will see Bitcoin hot numbers we thought were impossible. Don’t confuse a futures product, which is an institutional toy, to an ETF.

Fully agree Slapper. By "retail" I meant individuals buying directly via exchanges and peer to peer - not direct via banks who offer BTC.

I move between a range of global jurisdictions for tax reasons, and have private banking relationships in each. I can confirm that the banks I bank with are only just really starting to offer BTC directly (as in the last 12 months or so). (They started cautiously with HNWs, then more to general customers, and all KYC compliant. But I do now see a BTC balance in the calculation among my total assets, and I can buy via an app on my phone.

When I enquire to my bankers about BTC demand from clients, they tell me there is growing interest, but still very low. If anything, the typical client still sees gold in the way the younger generation see BTC (and many of the "investment advisors" still feel more comfortable recommending gold). And of course the banks also allow you to store physical gold with them. But they are all consistent, interest in BTC is growing, and yes, the ETF approval is what will lead to their clients feeling more comfortable to move in and similarly for advisors to recommend a BTC ETF allocation.

It will be interesting to see how much the ETF's charge for management fee. As a comparison, the banks I am with are at 30 to 50 bps a year custody fee. They also charge a little more for purchase transaction fee than an exchange would.

[Theoak*]

Folks, retail isn’t even in yet. Let’s just say I work on the retail side (although I deal with institutional business) for one of the big 3 financial services firms in the world and have seen very little change in the positions held at DTC from a year ago to now.

Retail is going to come once the ETFs are approved.

Oh, and another thing, the ETF approvals are not going to be sell-the-news events. There are millions of retirement accounts out there, with hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars in them, waiting to go in. Once that happens, we will see Bitcoin hot numbers we thought were impossible. Don’t confuse a futures product, which is an institutional toy, to an ETF.

Gold ETF. If this is any indication  it will be buy the rumour, buy the news.

[gib]

Just out of interest, after Covid, I bought equal shares in the following US stocks (none of which I owned prior to then):

Alphabet - up 18%
Amazon - up 25%
Berkshire Hathaway - up 27%
Microsoft - up 44%

And the best performer...

MicroStrategy - up 104%

[Mayday]

Dominance moving up to a point where last time it signalled a brief top.

With all 100x more token and NFT projects available the market is heavily diluted so I’d be surprised if we actually get to 60.

You guys beginning to sound euphoric but it would be funny if we ran straight to 76k early 2024 and it died in the ass for another 4yrs.

The last dominance move up took 577 days which if repeated takes us out to July 2024.

[unreasonablereasons]

one of you smart guys tell me if NEGG will go up over time

[Theoak*]

Dominance moving up to a point where last time it signalled a brief top.

With all 100x more token and NFT projects available the market is heavily diluted so I’d be surprised if we actually get to 60.

You guys beginning to sound euphoric but it would be funny if we ran straight to 76k early 2024 and it died in the ass for another 4yrs.

The last dominance move up took 577 days which if repeated takes us out to July 2024.

Suggesting the top of the next bull run is 9% higher the top of last bull run? Given that there is no Do Kwon, DCG, SBF, CZ and a whole host of other shitcoin casinos and nefarious actors trying to suppress the price.?

[Flexacon]

Dominance moving up to a point where last time it signalled a brief top.

With all 100x more token and NFT projects available the market is heavily diluted so I’d be surprised if we actually get to 60.

You guys beginning to sound euphoric but it would be funny if we ran straight to 76k early 2024 and it died in the ass for another 4yrs.

The last dominance move up took 577 days which if repeated takes us out to July 2024.

Dominance looks like it's repeating the 2018/19 run and rising with rates/until cuts. Cuts will probably the tentative sell point for me so March 2024, although I wouldn't be surprised if Jan 31 ended up being the first cut.

[Flexacon]

ETH  continuing to bounce hard here off ethbtc support lows would also track the above as this also happened 2018/19.

May 2019 ETH broke to the upside of a rising wedge exactly 4 months after rates peaked. It is now exactly 4 months since rates peaked and ETH is now close to breaking out to the upside of another rising wedge.

[Mayday]

Suggesting the top of the next bull run is 9% higher the top of last bull run? Given that there is no Do Kwon, DCG, SBF, CZ and a whole host of other shitcoin casinos and nefarious actors trying to suppress the price.?

Yes. I had estimated 55k peak for the last run until I listened to gurus saying 200k+. I have 76k this time. I also bought at 17.5k so at least left to my own devices I can see the entry/exit better than anyone I have listened to. Hence I’m following my own advice this time instead of last time.

The space is far from cleansed.

eUSD launches in 2024 which means stablecoins are on the hit list this time around. All those yielding in stables is what will cause the collapse IMO. It’ll rinse the shit out of everything stables go and Blackrock will have their ETF launched at the right time.

I have BTC on a solid run post 2030.

[gib]

eUSD launches in 2024 which means stablecoins are on the hit list this time around. All those yielding in stables is what will cause the collapse IMO. It’ll rinse the shit out of everything stables go and Blackrock will have their ETF launched at the right time.

I have BTC on a solid run post 2030.

Bear in mind also that once the global powers that be of finance are aligned around Bitcoin, which is about to happen, they will all be highly incentivized to support the crackdown on shitcoins and shitcoin exchanges. Again, another reason to be very weary of shiny new things in the shitcoin space such as Solana not to mention scams from the prior cycle such as XRP.

Head down, ignore the noise, solidly stacking sats and hodling will serve us very well over time, even though it means missing out on some exciting shitcoinery along the way...