Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[SouJerz]

Again, 76k is my target and we still aren’t there yet.

In 2020 I had calculated BTC top of 55k. Then I fell for the gurus thinking they knew best and almost got wrecked but I snapped out of it just in time and was out at 51k.

So my own 2021 forecast was -17% off vs the market +241% off.

I then Bought at 17.5k vs 15.5k bottom which was +13% off. The market called for 12k which was -35% off but because it never got down there those same people were calling short from 25k-32k which was 100% off before they flipped bullish.

Add +17% error to my 76k and it goes to 89k. The market is calling for 300k so let’s take the 89k  and it’s 237% off. Ironic?

It’s not about being right, it’s about making money. Or at least for me it is. I’m perfectly fine to be a no coiner.

Well if it’s about money you’re leaving money on the table by not shorting. Godspeed


Ironic?

[Flexacon]

Grayscale filed for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

[Mayday]

Grayscale filled for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

Barry down to 388k coins now from over 600k. They decimated Grayscale and the ETFs got a free ride. Nicely executed.

ETH ETF decision in May?

[Flexacon]

Barry down to 388k coins now from over 600k. They decimated Grayscale and the ETFs got a free ride. Nicely executed.

ETH ETF decision in May?

I'm leaning towards delay if not rejection.. Something along the lines of the SEC hinting on a reason why they intend to reject it, Blackrock and a few others withdraw their applications, but later down the line they reapply as the potential reason for rejection is no longer applicable.

[gib]

Grayscale filed for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

Smart move - they keep the lazy money that just stays in GBTC. And they capture as much of the money that moves from GBTC into cheaper funds. And their new func may even attract fresh money, not just GBTC outflows. Very positive for Bitcoin. Eventually outflows form GBTC stop, and provided overall EFT demand continues, BTC BOOMS!

[gib]

I'm leaning towards delay if not rejection.. Something along the lines of the SEC hinting on a reason why they intend to reject it, Blackrock and a few others withdraw their applications, but later down the line they reapply as the potential reason for rejection is no longer applicable.

In my view an ETH ETF would essentially be a perversion of core US securities laws. So, I can't see it happening any time soon at all.

[Flexacon]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

[gib]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

Exactly right on the latter point. This is certainly one of the objections, among numerous, which could be made. But there are also many reasons apart from that to deny ETH, or at least very much delay any approval.

[Flexacon]

Exactly right on the latter point. This is certainly one of the objections, among numerous, which could be made. But there are also many reasons apart from that to deny ETH, or at least very much delay any approval.

The SEC released a bunch of cryptos lawyers from their department. They aren't looking for any more "see you in court" which is exactly what happen if the tried to delay/reject the ETF for any other reason.

Even delaying it because futures aren't highly correlated with spot could see them in court, but it would also be an admission that they intend to eventually approve ETFs. Those pushing for them may decide to just wait things out.

A delayed spot ETH ETF say late 2024 early 2025 is potentially better for everyone. For the BTC ETFs the delay means focus remains on them and by late 2024 they should have reached escape velocity.

Everyone then knows the playbook for the ETH ETF and if it's still in bull market it will be more rocket fuel.

[gib]

Article on the topic FYI:

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/three-reasons-why-sec-might-not-greenlight-ethereum-etfs/

[obsidian]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

The ETH futures correlation looks almost identical to BTC. What am I missing?



Lawyers and ETF "experts" are saying the SEC will reject the ETH ETF on the basis of correlations.

Did anyone do the math?

The actual math by Coinbase:

Hourly: 99.3 vs 99.1
5 Min: 96.2 vs 96.4
1 Min: 84.7 vs. 85.8

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIVZgzUXMAAeBfi?format=jpg&name=medium

[obsidian]

Peter Schiff is insufferable! WOW!

[obsidian]

Article on the topic FYI:

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/three-reasons-why-sec-might-not-greenlight-ethereum-etfs/

Who gives a fuck what Elizabeth Warren thinks. Fuck that bitch!

[obsidian]

In my view an ETH ETF would essentially be a perversion of core US securities laws. So, I can't see it happening any time soon at all.

How so? You're expecting a profit off your BTC holdings and yet you are not doing any work yourself confirming transactions through mining - correct? Aren't you expecting a profit based on the work of others? If you say you holding BTC secures the network well the same logic can be applied to Ethereum. I am staking Ethereum and exposed to slashing if the validators are not configured correctly. And a solo staker is actually putting sweat and technical work into the project. Hardware has to be acquired and configured. Updates are necessary.

Michael Saylor's company owns almost 200,000 BTC. Does he personally mine BTC to help approve transactions on the network. If all he is doing is holding the asset then how can someone not make the argument he is profiting on the work of others?

The whole argument that ETH is a security is BS, and you know it. The ship has sailed. It's too late now for the SEC to do anything about it. Their job is not to hurt investors. Them trying to declare ETH a security would hurt investors. Look at what happened with XRP. They fucked the XRP holders, and even now it is still trying to recover after Ripple won the lawsuit.

[gib]

How so? You're expecting a profit off your BTC holdings and yet you are not doing any work yourself confirming transactions through mining - correct? Aren't you expecting a profit based on the work of others? If you say you holding BTC secures the network well the same logic can be applied to Ethereum. I am staking Ethereum and exposed to slashing if the validators are not configured correctly. And a solo staker is actually putting sweat and technical work into the project. Hardware has to be acquired and configured. Updates are necessary.

Michael Saylor's company owns almost 200,000 BTC. Does he personally mine BTC to help approve transactions on the network. If all he is doing is holding the asset then how can someone not make the argument he is profiting on the work of others?

The whole argument that ETH is a security is BS, and you know it. The ship has sailed. It's too late now for the SEC to do anything about it. Their job is not to hurt investors. Them trying to declare ETH a security would hurt investors. Look at what happened with XRP. They fucked the XRP holders, and even now it is still trying to recover after Ripple won the lawsuit.

It it looks like a duck, it is probably a duck. ETH is a security. It meets all the basic definitions of a security. The SEC did not fuck XRP holders. Rather Ripples did, but illegally issuing tokens. And "investors" did likewise, by not understanding what they were buying and the legal risks involved.

Now, does that mean that the SEC might approve? It's always possible (although that could lead to numerous lawsuits, contesting the SEC's incorrect application of the law). If they approve ETH, it really opens almost any unregistered security to be put into an ETF wrapper, which would of course be insane.

Time will tell. Also, even if they do approve, I am not sure how much demand there would be. It might well be a real disappointment. If I was GBTC, I would lie low on pushing ETH, continue to thrive on BTC, and not put more resources into fighting a battle which may cause me harm and legal costs, and which is an any case ethically corrupt.

[gib]

Good article on this topic here:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/09/what-happens-if-ethereum-is-a-security/

[gib]

We will also see numerous people, including myself, filing very detailed and well reasoned amicus briefs on this topic to relevant courts and governing bodies. So, it will not be straightforward for ETH for sure, as there will be significant political, legal, and academic opposition.

[Amerian Muscle]

I ended up selling the gold and just received the money.

[gib]

Good, now get it into BTC ASAP.

My advice is to get it all in at once. But if you want to DCA in over each day over the next month or so, this may smooth out any volatility (if that is a concern to you).

[Amerian Muscle]

Good, now get it into BTC ASAP.

My advice is to get it all in at once. But if you want to DCA in over each day over the next month or so, this may smooth out any volatility (if that is a concern to you).

OK so you dont expect a significant pullback any day soon

[gib]

OK so you dont expect a significant pullback any day soon

I am very confident in the long term trend. Could we see 5%, 10% dips along the way? Yes - but we can't time these, and we do know the long term trend. So overall, yes I anticipate long term upside, and so would buy now.

[Amerian Muscle]

I am very confident in the long term trend. Could we see 5%, 10% dips along the way? Yes - but we can't time these, and we do know the long term trend. So overall, yes I anticipate long term upside, and so would buy now.

ok, it really sucks so much i am so late but i am going to buy 2 btc today, better late than never

[Flexacon]

The ETH futures correlation looks almost identical to BTC. What am I missing?

The SEC probably just finds numbers that suits their narrative. Price data from more exchange, different time periods etc.

If they delay or reject, the reason for it will show their hand.

There is also still a reasonable chance that Larry Fink says FU give me my ETF

[Flexacon]

We will also see numerous people, including myself, filing very detailed and well reasoned amicus briefs on this topic to relevant courts and governing bodies. So, it will not be straightforward for ETH for sure, as there will be significant political, legal, and academic opposition.

This kinda thing has already started, but it goes both ways. Some like the State of Montana, backed by 7 other states filed an amicus brief regarding the SECs overreach in crypto

On February 29, the state of Montana, supported by seven other states, filed an amicus brief arguing that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lacks authority to regulate crypto assets.

https://www.regulatoryoversight.com/2024/03/8-state-ags-argue-that-secs-crypto-enforcement-action-is-unlawful/

[gib]

Yes, for sure - opinions being filed on both sides.