Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[SouJerz]

Stacks, Fetch.ai, pendle

I have the first 2 from December 2023 when I decided a bullrun was starting and made a case for them months before that.

You keep drinking your water though 

i=Vwp7QMJmWnIVxukW[/youtube]

[Mayday]

I agree with your part about dropping back to 40-50k for a while.  If history rhymes there is normally a short post halving consolidation period and then blast off!

Ponder ‘then blast off’ part for a moment if you would. I’ll give you my perspective.

This is a one wave cycle top. We get one bit at the cherry this time.

Retail don’t front run anybody. All retail here now think they are front running 2025 and don’t realise they ARE the 2025 retail.

 the drop post halving is known. What is also known is retail will go all in on that dip under the narrative of the last generational price below 100k.

You know what will be missing this cycle? The insane level of euphoria we saw in 2021. Why? Because retail expect it and are waiting for it.

Meanwhile Saylor, the top buying king just leveraged 700M to buy Bitcoin in order to attempt to pay back the billions in junk bond debt……. At 72k and with daily ETF flows he could easily sell 40% of his holdings, wipe the debt and claim King Chad.

Aside from that, gib has unlocked full enlightenment. He is the final boss

[SouJerz]

Ponder ‘then blast off’ part for a moment if you would. I’ll give you my perspective.

This is a one wave cycle top. We get one bit at the cherry this time.

Retail don’t front run anybody. All retail here now think they are front running 2025 and don’t realise they ARE the 2025 retail.

 the drop post halving is known. What is also known is retail will go all in on that dip under the narrative of the last generational price below 100k.

You know what will be missing this cycle? The insane level of euphoria we saw in 2021. Why? Because retail expect it and are waiting for it.

Meanwhile Saylor, the top buying king just leveraged 700M to buy Bitcoin in order to attempt to pay back the billions in junk bond debt……. At 72k and with daily ETF flows he could easily sell 40% of his holdings, wipe the debt and claim King Chad.

Aside from that, gib has unlocked full enlightenment. He is the final boss

Put your money where you mouth is chief, Short Bitcoin.

[Grape Ape]

Put your money where you mouth is chief, Short Bitcoin.

He's been pretty damn good at this stuff.

[SouJerz]

He's been pretty damn good at this stuff.

Well then its a no brainer and you should follow with some shorts of your own?

[Mayday]

Put your money where you mouth is chief, Short Bitcoin.

Again, 76k is my target and we still aren’t there yet.

In 2020 I had calculated BTC top of 55k. Then I fell for the gurus thinking they knew best and almost got wrecked but I snapped out of it just in time and was out at 51k.

So my own 2021 forecast was -17% off vs the market +241% off.

I then Bought at 17.5k vs 15.5k bottom which was +13% off. The market called for 12k which was -35% off but because it never got down there those same people were calling short from 25k-32k which was 100% off before they flipped bullish.

Add +17% error to my 76k and it goes to 89k. The market is calling for 300k so let’s take the 89k  and it’s 237% off. Ironic?

It’s not about being right, it’s about making money. Or at least for me it is. I’m perfectly fine to be a no coiner.

[SouJerz]

Again, 76k is my target and we still aren’t there yet.

In 2020 I had calculated BTC top of 55k. Then I fell for the gurus thinking they knew best and almost got wrecked but I snapped out of it just in time and was out at 51k.

So my own 2021 forecast was -17% off vs the market +241% off.

I then Bought at 17.5k vs 15.5k bottom which was +13% off. The market called for 12k which was -35% off but because it never got down there those same people were calling short from 25k-32k which was 100% off before they flipped bullish.

Add +17% error to my 76k and it goes to 89k. The market is calling for 300k so let’s take the 89k  and it’s 237% off. Ironic?

It’s not about being right, it’s about making money. Or at least for me it is. I’m perfectly fine to be a no coiner.

Well if it’s about money you’re leaving money on the table by not shorting. Godspeed


Ironic?

[Flexacon]

Grayscale filed for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

[Mayday]

Grayscale filled for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

Barry down to 388k coins now from over 600k. They decimated Grayscale and the ETFs got a free ride. Nicely executed.

ETH ETF decision in May?

[Flexacon]

Barry down to 388k coins now from over 600k. They decimated Grayscale and the ETFs got a free ride. Nicely executed.

ETH ETF decision in May?

I'm leaning towards delay if not rejection.. Something along the lines of the SEC hinting on a reason why they intend to reject it, Blackrock and a few others withdraw their applications, but later down the line they reapply as the potential reason for rejection is no longer applicable.

[gib]

Grayscale filed for a new BTC fund which will have lower fees. It could also allow GBTC holders to have access to it via a dividend.

This could potentially slow down their outflows even more, although VanEck just removed all their fees on their ETF for 12 months so who knows.

Either way doesn't take a $GeNiUS.ai to work out that the fight for customers is very real and is only gonna get spicier!

Smart move - they keep the lazy money that just stays in GBTC. And they capture as much of the money that moves from GBTC into cheaper funds. And their new func may even attract fresh money, not just GBTC outflows. Very positive for Bitcoin. Eventually outflows form GBTC stop, and provided overall EFT demand continues, BTC BOOMS!

[gib]

I'm leaning towards delay if not rejection.. Something along the lines of the SEC hinting on a reason why they intend to reject it, Blackrock and a few others withdraw their applications, but later down the line they reapply as the potential reason for rejection is no longer applicable.

In my view an ETH ETF would essentially be a perversion of core US securities laws. So, I can't see it happening any time soon at all.

[Flexacon]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

[gib]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

Exactly right on the latter point. This is certainly one of the objections, among numerous, which could be made. But there are also many reasons apart from that to deny ETH, or at least very much delay any approval.

[Flexacon]

Exactly right on the latter point. This is certainly one of the objections, among numerous, which could be made. But there are also many reasons apart from that to deny ETH, or at least very much delay any approval.

The SEC released a bunch of cryptos lawyers from their department. They aren't looking for any more "see you in court" which is exactly what happen if the tried to delay/reject the ETF for any other reason.

Even delaying it because futures aren't highly correlated with spot could see them in court, but it would also be an admission that they intend to eventually approve ETFs. Those pushing for them may decide to just wait things out.

A delayed spot ETH ETF say late 2024 early 2025 is potentially better for everyone. For the BTC ETFs the delay means focus remains on them and by late 2024 they should have reached escape velocity.

Everyone then knows the playbook for the ETH ETF and if it's still in bull market it will be more rocket fuel.

[gib]

Article on the topic FYI:

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/three-reasons-why-sec-might-not-greenlight-ethereum-etfs/

[obsidian]

Futures already exists so they can't put the toothpaste back in tube even if they wanted to. Also the CFTC already lists ETH as a commodity.

The talk around delay seems to be around Eth futures not being *highly* correlated with spot market rather than US securities law.

The ETH futures correlation looks almost identical to BTC. What am I missing?



Lawyers and ETF "experts" are saying the SEC will reject the ETH ETF on the basis of correlations.

Did anyone do the math?

The actual math by Coinbase:

Hourly: 99.3 vs 99.1
5 Min: 96.2 vs 96.4
1 Min: 84.7 vs. 85.8

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIVZgzUXMAAeBfi?format=jpg&name=medium

[obsidian]

Peter Schiff is insufferable! WOW!

[obsidian]

Article on the topic FYI:

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/three-reasons-why-sec-might-not-greenlight-ethereum-etfs/

Who gives a fuck what Elizabeth Warren thinks. Fuck that bitch!

[obsidian]

In my view an ETH ETF would essentially be a perversion of core US securities laws. So, I can't see it happening any time soon at all.

How so? You're expecting a profit off your BTC holdings and yet you are not doing any work yourself confirming transactions through mining - correct? Aren't you expecting a profit based on the work of others? If you say you holding BTC secures the network well the same logic can be applied to Ethereum. I am staking Ethereum and exposed to slashing if the validators are not configured correctly. And a solo staker is actually putting sweat and technical work into the project. Hardware has to be acquired and configured. Updates are necessary.

Michael Saylor's company owns almost 200,000 BTC. Does he personally mine BTC to help approve transactions on the network. If all he is doing is holding the asset then how can someone not make the argument he is profiting on the work of others?

The whole argument that ETH is a security is BS, and you know it. The ship has sailed. It's too late now for the SEC to do anything about it. Their job is not to hurt investors. Them trying to declare ETH a security would hurt investors. Look at what happened with XRP. They fucked the XRP holders, and even now it is still trying to recover after Ripple won the lawsuit.

[gib]

How so? You're expecting a profit off your BTC holdings and yet you are not doing any work yourself confirming transactions through mining - correct? Aren't you expecting a profit based on the work of others? If you say you holding BTC secures the network well the same logic can be applied to Ethereum. I am staking Ethereum and exposed to slashing if the validators are not configured correctly. And a solo staker is actually putting sweat and technical work into the project. Hardware has to be acquired and configured. Updates are necessary.

Michael Saylor's company owns almost 200,000 BTC. Does he personally mine BTC to help approve transactions on the network. If all he is doing is holding the asset then how can someone not make the argument he is profiting on the work of others?

The whole argument that ETH is a security is BS, and you know it. The ship has sailed. It's too late now for the SEC to do anything about it. Their job is not to hurt investors. Them trying to declare ETH a security would hurt investors. Look at what happened with XRP. They fucked the XRP holders, and even now it is still trying to recover after Ripple won the lawsuit.

It it looks like a duck, it is probably a duck. ETH is a security. It meets all the basic definitions of a security. The SEC did not fuck XRP holders. Rather Ripples did, but illegally issuing tokens. And "investors" did likewise, by not understanding what they were buying and the legal risks involved.

Now, does that mean that the SEC might approve? It's always possible (although that could lead to numerous lawsuits, contesting the SEC's incorrect application of the law). If they approve ETH, it really opens almost any unregistered security to be put into an ETF wrapper, which would of course be insane.

Time will tell. Also, even if they do approve, I am not sure how much demand there would be. It might well be a real disappointment. If I was GBTC, I would lie low on pushing ETH, continue to thrive on BTC, and not put more resources into fighting a battle which may cause me harm and legal costs, and which is an any case ethically corrupt.

[gib]

Good article on this topic here:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/09/what-happens-if-ethereum-is-a-security/

[gib]

We will also see numerous people, including myself, filing very detailed and well reasoned amicus briefs on this topic to relevant courts and governing bodies. So, it will not be straightforward for ETH for sure, as there will be significant political, legal, and academic opposition.

[Amerian Muscle]

I ended up selling the gold and just received the money.

[gib]

Good, now get it into BTC ASAP.

My advice is to get it all in at once. But if you want to DCA in over each day over the next month or so, this may smooth out any volatility (if that is a concern to you).