Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

Yes, value declines but it is misleading.

Do you have less today than you did 20yrs ago? The answer is no.

Are things easier or harder than 20yrs ago? The answer is easier.

The advancement of materials, durability, technology is not quantified in currency debasement formulas which is why it is misleading. USD collapse crew has been wrong for decades because of this.

The decades ahead lead to less ownership of goods and services because life will make us decide it’s not beneficial to own something which mostly sits idle. This is how the future decades we can debase currency and wages because you won’t want to buy expensive things anymore. If you can grasp this concept you will be ahead of 98% of people.

There's some truth to your post for sure. I have a high-horsepower car that's a garage queen. I am too worried that it will get a rock chip when I take it out on the road. I sometimes wonder if I would be better off not having it. But I do love the car and will feel like shit if I did end up selling it.

I will never be an "own nothing and be happy person". But I am not above never leasing cars. I actually enjoy those cars more because I am not worried about wear and tear since it is a lease. Spilling coffee is not a big deal. But I feel like shit if that happens with one of the cars I own.

[Mayday]

There's some truth to your post for sure. I have a high-horsepower car that's a garage queen. I am too worried that it will get a rock chip when I take it out on the road. I sometimes wonder if I would be better off not having it. But I do love the car and will feel like shit if I did end up selling it.

I will never be an "own nothing and be happy person". But I am not above never leasing cars. I actually enjoy those cars more because I am not worried about wear and tear since it is a lease. Spilling coffee is not a big deal. But I feel like shit if that happens with one of the cars I own.

What car do you have?

We are car nuts. Had some nice stuff, C63, RS5, M5 etc. had a 700hp supercharged Aussie V8 which was awesome but I lived in an affluent area and it stood out like crazy to Police so I sold it after a year.

We both work from home, I have done so for 8yrs or so. We have the typical 2 cars. Just sold the Merc for a new Tesla Y Performance. Free fuel from my 40kw solar.

But my 45k car which I own outright, used $30 in fuel the last 2 months. I pay $300/mth just to have the car registered and insured to have the luxury to spend $15/mth in fuel…… that’s how quickly the tables can turn. So next month I am selling my car and buying something for 10k and lowering the monthly rego/insurance to around 150/mth. I will still spend the same $15/mth in fuel but it makes much more sense.

It’s not even that I need to change my car. I don’t need the money but I look at what a waste it is to have so much tied up in something which isn’t giving me joy.

[obsidian]

What car do you have?

We are car nuts. Had some nice stuff, C63, RS5, M5 etc. had a 700hp supercharged Aussie V8 which was awesome but I lived in an affluent area and it stood out like crazy to Police so I sold it after a year.

We both work from home, I have done so for 8yrs or so. We have the typical 2 cars. Just sold the Merc for a new Tesla Y Performance. Free fuel from my 40kw solar.

But my 45k car which I own outright, used $30 in fuel the last 2 months. I pay $300/mth just to have the car registered and insured to have the luxury to spend $15/mth in fuel…… that’s how quickly the tables can turn. So next month I am selling my car and buying something for 10k and lowering the monthly rego/insurance to around 150/mth. I will still spend the same $15/mth in fuel but it makes much more sense.

It’s not even that I need to change my car. I don’t need the money but I look at what a waste it is to have so much tied up in something which isn’t giving me joy.

It's a 850 HP modified Mustang. I bought it new and had various shops do modifications over the years.

Australia also has its fair share of muscle cars. I like the Falcon! I like the idea of more average looking cars being fast and loud. When you see a Ferrari or Lambo you know it's fast. My car is too loud to be a sleeper though. Actually, at idle it is not too crazy loud. WOT is when it sounds insane!

And yes, the fees all add up. Registration, insurance, maintenance. I have it set for storage insurance most of the year. But its still more than not having a car. Boats are the worst. I know people that pay over $1000 per month just to store their boats. A huge money pit.

[Theoak*]

It's a 850 HP modified Mustang. I bought it new and had various shops do modifications over the years.

Australia also has its fair share of muscle cars. I like the Falcon! I like the idea of more average looking cars being fast and loud. When you see a Ferrari or Lambo you know it's fast. My car is too loud to be a sleeper though. Actually, at idle it is not too crazy loud. WOT is when it sounds insane!

And yes, the fees all add up. Registration, insurance, maintenance. I have it set for storage insurance most of the year. But its still more than not having a car. Boats are the worse. I know people that pay over $1000 per month just to store their boats. A huge money pit.

Didn't pick you for a mustang guy given your Eth position . I have 2 of them, one 600hp and the other about to drop motor In 700-800hp. They've greatly gone up in value as no real great car builders in Aus. One is valued at 450-500k and other upon completion this year maybe 350-400k.

[obsidian]

Didn't pick you for a mustang guy given your Eth position . I have 2 of them, one 600hp and the other about to drop motor In 700-800hp. They've greatly gone up in value as no real great car builders in Aus. One is valued at 450-500k and other upon completion this year maybe 350-400k.

I fixed my typo after I looked into it per Fortress - Worse = Worst 

My ETH position? Because it went to POS? I've used my fair share of energy over the years. I mined ETH on and off for 4 years and had some decent energy bills to take care of. 

Those are pretty big numbers. $500,000?!

[obsidian]

https://www.theblock.co/post/300021/gensler-says-ethereum-etf-s-1-approvals-likely-over-the-course-of-this-summer

Gensler says Ethereum ETF S-1 approvals likely 'over the course of this summer'

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler gave comments related to the timeline of spot ether exchange-traded fund listing approval in a Thursday hearing at the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations.

When U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) asked Gensler about the approval process for ether ETFs, Gensler estimated the approvals to occur sometime this summer.

"Individual issuers still are working through the registration process. It's working smoothly," Gensler said, adding that listing approval could occur "sometime over the course of this summer."

On May 23, the SEC approved spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to be listed. Industry leaders predicted that, after approvals, their trading could occur sometime in July or August, and likely before November.

Spot ether ETFs give investors exposure to ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, without having to hold the asset itself.

[Theoak*]

I fixed my typo after I looked into it per Fortress - Worse = Worst 

My ETH position? Because it went to POS? I've used my fair share of energy over the years. I mined ETH on and off for 4 years and had some decent energy bills to take care of. 

Those are pretty big numbers. $500,000?!

I mean your love for altcoin Eth.

500k aud not usd.

[obsidian]

I mean your love for altcoin Eth.

500k aud not usd.

Why does preferring ETH not equal liking Muscle Cars? The two are unrelated. 

[obsidian]

Good news! ETH price going up because of this.

https://cryptobriefing.com/sec-ethereum-decision-cleared/

The SEC closes investigation into Ethereum 2.0, no securities charges against ETH: Consensys

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has wrapped up its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will no longer pursue legal action claiming that ETH sales are securities transactions, according to a recent announcement from Consensys.

https://x.com/Consensys/status/1803230653120659641

ETHEREUM SURVIVES THE SEC.

Today we’re happy to announce a major win for Ethereum developers, technology providers, and industry participants: the Enforcement Division of the SEC has notified us that it is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0.

This means that the SEC will not bring charges alleging that sales of ETH are securities transactions.

Consensys said this is a major win for Ethereum developers and businesses. It removes a cloud of uncertainty that could have hampered Ethereum’s growth.

As noted, the SEC’s decision comes after Consensys sent a letter to the SEC arguing that the recent approval of spot Ethereum ETFs implied ETH wasn’t a security, and the SEC should close the investigation. The SEC’s decision likely hinged on considering ETH a commodity, much like BTC, and signifies no forthcoming legal challenges in this regard.

Despite this progress, Consensys said the quest for definitive regulatory guidelines continues, especially concerning services like MetaMask Swaps and Staking. The team is still seeking broader clarity from the SEC on crypto regulations.

[obsidian]

Old video showing the day Bitcoin crashed to 1 cent, from $32 a few days prior in 2011. Epic crash! Amazing how Bitcoin recovered!

[Mayday]

Old video showing the day Bitcoin crashed to 1 cent, from $32 a few days prior in 2011. Epic crash! Amazing how Bitcoin recovered!

Thin books and spoofed orders. Binance AU were shockers and spoofed their volume and orderbook. I remember watching my limit order sit and have price move above my order without me being filled 😂 so dodgy, no shock they got banned here.

I’m hoping BTC doesn’t ATH in October.

[SouJerz]

Thin books and spoofed orders. Binance AU were shockers and spoofed their volume and orderbook. I remember watching my limit order sit and have price move above my order without me being filled 😂 so dodgy, no shock they got banned here.

I’m hoping BTC doesn’t ATH in October.

That’s around 200 days post halving.

[Mayday]

That’s around 200 days post halving.

What does the 200 mean? Should that tell us something?

Sorry, I’m unsure what it is you are pointing out.

[SouJerz]

Historically 200 days post halving is when BTC price to rally to ATH.

[Mayday]

Take a moment for dip buyers. You are now round tripped. Take note of how it feels and it hasn’t even broken down to the next level yet.

This is why even though I bought at 17.5k I sold at 73.1k.

This cycle will end with a huge round trip and then sub 15k. It’s not over yet but it’s important to note this moment because when the price doesn’t go anywhere nears the spastic predictions people are claiming, you will be round tripped. Back to square one…… then you will go underwater…..

It’s an emotional roller coaster that I suspect many on this thread are burned out from as it’s dead quiet.

[loco]

[obsidian]

Take a moment for dip buyers. You are now round tripped. Take note of how it feels and it hasn’t even broken down to the next level yet.

This is why even though I bought at 17.5k I sold at 73.1k.

This cycle will end with a huge round trip and then sub 15k. It’s not over yet but it’s important to note this moment because when the price doesn’t go anywhere nears the spastic predictions people are claiming, you will be round tripped. Back to square one…… then you will go underwater…..

It’s an emotional roller coaster that I suspect many on this thread are burned out from as it’s dead quiet.

Looking at the BTC chart I see higher lows every 4 years. During the 2017 bull run BTC went to $19.8k and then dumped to $3k. In 2021 it went to $68k and then dumped to $15k.

We are still early IMO. The $74k ATH was a bonus because of the ETF euphoria. Ethereum has not even surpassed the previous ATH. If you look at the ETH charts you'll see a similar picture unfold. Higher lows. And higher highs. Zoom out.

I will be surprised if BTC dumps to $15k ever again. But anything is possible I guess. A nuclear war for example changes everything. Especially an all out one that destroys civilization. Hopefully that's also unlikely. But anything is possible. The solar system was once a solar nebula dust cloud. All you see came from that! That's way more farfetched than a society destroying nuclear war. Yes, our origin is the wildest of wild concepts to wrap your head around.

[obsidian]

Take a moment for dip buyers. You are now round tripped. Take note of how it feels and it hasn’t even broken down to the next level yet.

This is why even though I bought at 17.5k I sold at 73.1k.

This cycle will end with a huge round trip and then sub 15k. It’s not over yet but it’s important to note this moment because when the price doesn’t go anywhere nears the spastic predictions people are claiming, you will be round tripped. Back to square one…… then you will go underwater…..

It’s an emotional roller coaster that I suspect many on this thread are burned out from as it’s dead quiet.

I held ETH from $1350 down to $80 in 2018/19. I held ETH again from $4800 down to $900 in the previous cycle.

Saylor has already declared he is willing to hold BTC down to zero. There's lots of holders with that mindset.

HODL.

[Griffith]

ETH ETF's possibly launching next week on 2 July.

[obsidian]

ETH ETF's possibly launching next week on 2 July.

Or 4 July. This won't stop the ETH FUD though. The new narrative is the ETH inflows will be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, I am pessimistic about Bitcoin's long-term Proof-of-Work viability. Miner yields will continue to half every 4 years. Why will many miners stick around? The fees won't be able to keep them paying for massive electrical bills and infrastructure. Renewable energy is not cheap either. Somebody has to pay for and build the wind towers, solar panel installations, etc.

I expect that they will have to either remove the 21 million cap to keep the miner dynamic going or something else. Proof of Stake won't work either because the cap means stakers can't receive BTC yields, unless it is robbed from non-stakers.

Surely the Wall Street yoyos have to realize this?! Why has nobody asked Saylor's opinion about that?

[Mayday]

Or 4 July. This won't stop the ETH FUD though. The new narrative is the ETH inflows will be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, I am pessimistic about Bitcoin's long-term Proof-of-Work viability. Miner yields will continue to half every 4 years. Why will many miners stick around? The fees won't be able to keep them paying for massive electrical bills and infrastructure. Renewable energy is not cheap either. Somebody has to pay for and build the wind towers, solar panel installations, etc.

I expect that they will have to either remove the 21 million cap to keep the miner dynamic going or something else. Proof of Stake won't work either because the cap means stakers can't receive BTC yields, unless it is robbed from non-stakers.

Surely the Wall Street yoyos have to realize this?! Why has nobody asked Saylor's opinion about that?

BTC can’t go to proof of stake otherwise it becomes a meme coin.

The difficulty adjustments are there to take into account miner participation. Miners get paid in BTC, not money. Miners sell BTC to pay for energy/op costs.. Price of BTC gets impacted by miners. Price influencers miner Participation which influences difficulty and influencers the BTC payout. There is no issue there at all.

The question is what I proposed a while back which is the US centralisation of the BTC network. For people who use morality first and profit second, they already face this of their own moral code. For anyone truly in it for privacy etc you’d have already sold once China left the mining and the US began centralising to take control of the network. Making xxxxx% gains changes people’s morals once they have the money. That Keiser dude is a total fraud, leads soooo many to wreckage and he knows it but hides behind some fake morality.

Trump already stated the US should own the crypto industry. The ETFs now have them in control of price. The mining has them in majority of the mining pool in control of the network to put others out of business (khazakstan is left). 

What lies ahead the next few years is the US is going to nuke the shit out of BTC and drive other miners out of business. They take control of the network at the low market prices, then drive the hash rate through the ceiling preventing anyone else from catching up with GPU power. Then future BTC price will be under US control like the Gold market. Done.

Everyone gunna get round tripped dude.

[obsidian]

BTC can’t go to proof of stake otherwise it becomes a meme coin.

The difficulty adjustments are there to take into account miner participation. Miners get paid in BTC, not money. Miners sell BTC to pay for energy/op costs.. Price of BTC gets impacted by miners. Price influencers miner Participation which influences difficulty and influencers the BTC payout. There is no issue there at all.

There is an issue. The BTC block rewards half every 4 years. Earlier this year each block netted 6.25 BTC. Around 144 blocks are being mined per day. This equaled 900 BTC per day being issued to miners in January 2024. Then the most recent halving occurred on April 20, 2024. Now each block reward is 3.125 BTC, exactly half of what it was prior to the halving. About the same amount of blocks are mined per day, so the miners are netting around 450 BTC per day. The current cost to mine one BTC is a little over $80k. The current BTC price is almost $20k below that. Miners are operating at a loss. The price of BTC needs to go up a lot for them to be profitable. Would you mine BTC at a loss? Why not just buy and hold vs mine? I mined Ethereum and I would have been better off buying when it was at rock bottom. Sure, when Ethereum was over $4,000 I obtained ETH well below that price via mining, below $1000 per ETH. But when ETH was at $80 I was mining at a loss. I was using the rigs to heat the house so that is how I rationalized it.

Now imagine in 4 years we have another halving. At that point 225 BTC will be mined per day worldwide. Then in another 4 years it goes down to around 112.5 BTC. That's in 2032. In 2036 it is down to 56.25 BTC. That's not too far off in the future. BTC can be mined technically for over 100 years. But the miner rewards will be so low few will stick around for that. So either the transaction fees have to go up dramatically making BTC transactions super expensive. Or they need a very, very low energy source that can ensure no single point of attack. How will the BTC network sustain itself with all these upcoming halvings?

Bitcoin - Average Mining Costs
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Bitcoin - Blocks per Day
https://charts.bitbo.io/blocks-daily/

What lies ahead the next few years is the US is going to nuke the shit out of BTC and drive other miners out of business. They take control of the network at the low market prices, then drive the hash rate through the ceiling preventing anyone else from catching up with GPU power. Then future BTC price will be under US control like the Gold market. Done.

Everyone gunna get round tripped dude.

GPUs were pushed out of Bitcoin mining more than a decade ago. You can't really mine BTC with a GPU. Not even the fastest ones out there. You can try, but you just won't receive any BTC. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/17f50vc/mining_bitcoin_with_gpu/

GPUs could not keep up with ASIC devices that were introduced around 2013. ASIC devices are like appliances that have one purpose. A GPU can be used for many functions. ASIC devices are fine-tuned for a specific algorithm. They can hash at a much higher rate per watt. POW Ethereum and ZCASH were supposed to be ASIC-resistant to ensure decentralization and an even playing field for all miners. But eventually, ASIC miners started taking over Ethereum mining as well. The Ethereum developers already decided to switch to Proof-of-Stake so they decided not to do a fork to push out the ASIC miners. GPU devices could still mine Ethereum though. I mined until the switch to POS happened. I watched it happen in real-time. My miners were mining and suddenly a connection lost started appearing on the screen. Was kind of sad to see it and I took a few screenshots. I have them saved somewhere.

[obsidian]

BTC can’t go to proof of stake otherwise it becomes a meme coin.

Not all meme coins have a POS consensus. Dogecoin is the first meme coin and it operates via Proof of Work - lol!

Ethereum is not a meme coin and it operates via POS. Same with Solana or Cardano. Memes have nothing to do with POS.

I know you don't like to click on links and I don't want to sound like an asshole, but come on! You've mentioned GPUs and BTC mining and now memes and POS. You might want to click on a few links and start reading! 

I think Bitcoin will be a lot more viable if they uncap it when the supply hits 20 million in a few years and switch to Proof-of-Stake and a burning of some transaction fees. Similar to Ethereum. 20 million BTC and an inflation rate of around 0.5% is not too bad. That would ensure continued demand for Bitcoin. BTC capped at 21 million and dwindling miner rewards is a recipe for failure.

Many of the smartest people in crypto have agreed that a bitcoin without block rewards is problematic. The security of the network will most likely suffer, as some miners will definitely try to undercut or selfish mine, which puts the blockchain under a constant threat.

On the Instability of Bitcoin Without the Block Reward
https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CCS.pdf

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/gi0983/on_the_instability_of_bitcoin_without_the_block/

[Griffith]

Here’s When Ethereum ETFs Are Going to Launch

Multiple industry analysts believe that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be on track to be launched in mid-July.  According to industry sources that were cited in a recent Bloomberg report, multiple applicants are supposed to submit their amended S-1 forms before July 8.

As noted by Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, this would mean that the final approval of S-1 forms is expected to take place by July 12. This would "theoretically" mean the launch week of July 15, according to Geraci.

https://u.today/heres-when-ethereum-etfs-are-going-to-launch

[loco]