Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[affeman]

All few crashs duration were max 2 hours.
About 6 hours on a year for a 24/7 operational model.
What about share market, bank, Swift network etc..closed 60% of the year.

Solana has shown major adoption and continues to mature, overcoming technological growing pains and highlighting the potential of high-throughput, monolithic architectures,” Franklin Templeton stated.

https://www.franklintempleton.com/

Stop pushing that f*ing shitcoin on here FFS, no one is going to buy it. Have you mortgaged your house to buy Solana or why are you so desperate? lol

[gib]

Eth getting absolutely RAPED today.

Let that be a lesson to all. Do not chase imitators to the invention which was created to be global money. The conception of such a tool can only happen once. By all means, look at layer 2 technologies which sit on or integrate with BTC - but for every other "alt" (which is what they are, insofar as BTC's value proposition) you are best to assess them on a calculated fundamental value, which for the vast majority of alts is close to zero - a lesson which is learned every cycle...

[obsidian]

Eth getting absolutely RAPED today.

Let that be a lesson to all. Do not chase imitators to the invention which was created to be global money. The conception of such a tool can only happen once. By all means, look at layer 2 technologies which sit on or integrate with BTC - but for every other "alt" (which is what they are, insofar as BTC's value proposition) you are best to assess them on a calculated fundamental value, which for the vast majority of alts is close to zero - a lesson which is learned every cycle...

BTC WAS RAPED DOWN 16% FROM JAN 8 TO JAN 22 AFTER THE ETF LAUNCH BECAUSE OF GRAYSCALE.

Ethereum is seeing a correction for the same reason - because of Grayscale outflows.

Bitcoin to me has a foundational flaw. The halving events keep reducing miner rewards. Eventually, many will abandon ship and a few will remain leading to centralization and less security. Bitcoin only works with miners receiving BTC as a reward for their expenses. The thought is that fees would help retain miners. How high would the fees have to be though? That sounds unrealistic to me. In 16-24 years this will become a major issue IMO. Mining is already unprofitable for many BTC miners. It currently cost over $70,000 to mine one BTC. It was over $94,000 a few month ago after the halving.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Mining is kind of moronic when you think about it. I mined ETH for many years and at times would have been better off just buying it. The rigs did heat our home in the winter though so there was a benefit there. Large mining operations though don't do it to heat spaces because they don't live in the facilities - lol!

The most profitable move would have been to buy Binance BNB in late 2017 and call it a day.

[Griffith]

“When observing the current price of Ethereum (ETH), it is worth remembering that after the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, despite the influx of new capital, the cryptocurrency saw an almost 18% decline”

https://decrypt.co/241597/ethereum-etfs-are-trading-wen-eth-price-go-up

[gib]

Just look and observe at the BTC to ETH price ratio. You will see ETH continues to decline. (Had a little pop on ETF hope, which turns out to be a real dud, and now has resumed its continued downward trend. Eth is now down 24% to BTC since the beginning of the year, and this is likely to continue. So we might well be looking at down 35-50% BTC by year end.

BTC's price has always risen to incentivise mining. I see no reason why this will not continue to be the case. Pure capitalism and arbitrage of energy allocation will lead to BTC mining always being incentivized.

Further, transaction fees will eventually rise, also being profitable for miners (and of course most of us by then will primarily be transaction on layer 2s).

[French]

In absolute terms, the capitalization of Bitcoin will be capped in the future.
All added value will be made on Smart Contracts, NFTs and Defi.
Ethereum will gradually die and be overtaken by the only ultra-efficient and secure all-in-one blockchain.
In the medium term, Solana will exceed the market capitalization of Ethereum and then, thanks to the massive adoption by institutions of this added value, absent from Bitcoin which will remain the store of value par excellence, will exceed its market capitalization.

[gib]

In absolute terms, the capitalization of Bitcoin will be capped in the future.

True, but BTC's current value is less than .01% of that absolute cap. So a looooooong outlook of continued valuation increase before that cap is ever hit.

[obsidian]

Just look and observe at the BTC to ETH price ratio. You will see ETH continues to decline. (Had a little pop on ETF hope, which turns out to be a real dud, and now has resumed its continued downward trend. Eth is now down 24% to BTC since the beginning of the year, and this is likely to continue. So we might well be looking at down 35-50% BTC by year end.

BTC's price has always risen to incentivise mining. I see no reason why this will not continue to be the case. Pure capitalism and arbitrage of energy allocation will lead to BTC mining always being incentivized.

Further, transaction fees will eventually rise, also being profitable for miners (and of course most of us by then will primarily be transaction on layer 2s).

We'll see. ETH is already a bargain and undervalued compared to BTC. It has a lower inflation rate, gives yield, and has a lot more utility. Ethereum's fee revenue is double Bitcoin's. Almost 30% of ETH is staked. There is regulatory clarity with the Spot ETH ETFs.

https://cryptodnes.bg/en/ethereum-has-generated-twice-as-much-tax-revenue-as-bitcoin/

You don't understand the predicament facing Bitcoin in 16-24 years. You say all transactions will be on Layer2s. Those fees will be low and layer 2 security needs to be provided by the Layer 1 network. The miners are there to secure Layer 1. So how will the fees be high enough to pay for their infrastructure and electrical costs? Even a $1000 Layer 1 fee won't be enough. Bitcoin mining is already unprofitable right now. Imagine 4 years from now the BTC mining rewards will be 50% less. And 4 years later?

16 years from now the BTC rewards will be 1/16th what it is now. The current cost to mine 1 BTC is around $70,000 and even went as high as $90,000 after the recent halving. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

$70,000 x 16 = $1,120,000 mining cost per BTC at current difficulty and energy costs
$90,000 x 16 = $1,440,000 mining cost per BTC at April 2024 difficulty and energy costs

24 years from now the BTC rewards will be 1/64th what it is now. The current cost to mine 1 BTC is around $70,000 and even went as high as $90,000 after the recent halving.

$70,000 x 64 = $4,480,000 per BTC mining cost per BTC at current difficulty and energy costs
$90,000 x 64 = $5,760,000 per BTC mining cost per BTC at April 2024 difficulty and energy costs

Energy costs will likely be much higher. So the cost to mine 1 BTC 16-24 years from now will probably be a lot higher than indicated above. It will become a centralized network. Governments could sustain it if they secured their currencies with BTC. But there is a question mark around how long decentralized BTC mining will be sustainable given that it is unprofitable for miners at current BTC prices.

1              2024 (1x)
.5             2028 (2x)
.25           2032 (4x)
.125         2036 (8x)
.0625       2040 (16x)
.03125     2044 (32x)
.015625   2048 (64x)

[obsidian]

ETH ETF investors would love to buy Ethereum at a discount. I'd like to know if the Grayscale BTC and ETH selloffs were backroom deals to allow the other ETF applicants' clients to enter the crypto space at lower floors...

The word "Ethereum" hanging from the 120yr old New York Stock Exchange building.

https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1816620919353483273

[obsidian]

In absolute terms, the capitalization of Bitcoin will be capped in the future.
All added value will be made on Smart Contracts, NFTs and Defi.
Ethereum will gradually die and be overtaken by the only ultra-efficient and secure all-in-one blockchain.
In the medium term, Solana will exceed the market capitalization of Ethereum and then, thanks to the massive adoption by institutions of this added value, absent from Bitcoin which will remain the store of value par excellence, will exceed its market capitalization.

Solana is not as secure. You're making claims as if they are facts.

Let's look at the various consensus methods.

Bitcoin - Proof of Work
Ethereum - Proof of Stake
Solana - Proof of History

They each have advantages and disadvantages. There's room for more than one or three thriving blockchains. It is unrealistic to expect Solana L1 to do everything on one chain - without choking. The hardware requirements would be insane. There's already talk of Solana Layer 2s. Realize that the security of a chain first starts with the L1. The L2s derive their security from the L1. The argument is that Solana can do everything on L1 and that Ethereum's L1 + L2 design is flawed. That narrative is destroyed when Solana also jumps on the L2 bandwagon. Solana has a spam problem, failed transactions, shutdowns, high inflation, and expensive validator hardware. It seems to be fast but those numbers are exaggerated. It is a valid project though and has gained traction - I won't deny that.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockchains-like-solana-brag-about-tps-but-it-s-misleading

https://coinfomania.com/solana-founder-says-theres-nothing-stopping-devs-from-building-l2s/

All the major blockchains have pros and cons.

Pros and Cons of Proof of History (PoH)
Solana’s Proof of History (PoH) technique has several advantages for the network. The main benefit is that it significantly improves the scalability of the blockchain as previous transactions can be efficiently verified while minimizing data storage requirements. It is also extremely energy efficient, reducing the carbon footprint of PoH-enabled blockchains.

The main disadvantage is that it relies on a trusted third party, the PoH generator, to generate the hashes that are included in the blockchain. This PoH generator plays an important role in the security and reliability of the network, and the network in general can be negatively affected if the PoH generator is unreliable.

Possible problems with Proof of History (PoH)
Although proof-of-history can enable incredibly fast and efficient blockchain systems, it has its limitations.

By far the most important of these is centralisation. At the heart of the PoH system are PoH generators, which are used to generate a PoH sequence. Since there is only one PoH generator at a time, these represent a single point of failure and are viewed by some as an unacceptable level of centralisation.
Additionally, generating proof-of-history hashes is computationally intensive, making a node more complex and expensive to operate. According to the official Solana documentation, validation nodes must meet strict hardware requirements, with the following recommended spec being: 12 cores (24 threads) + CPU, 128GB RAM, and 500GB-1TB+ storage.

[Mayday]

3 maxis

3 different networks

Only shall live

[gib]

3 maxis

3 different networks

Only shall live

I think all 3 could liv. But only one will emerge as global money. And for that role, it will be Bitcoin (in part due to the obvious faults of the other 2).

[gib]

We'll see. ETH is already a bargain and undervalued compared to BTC. It has a lower inflation rate, gives yield, and has a lot more utility. Ethereum's fee revenue is double Bitcoin's. Almost 30% of ETH is staked. There is regulatory clarity with the Spot ETH ETFs.

https://cryptodnes.bg/en/ethereum-has-generated-twice-as-much-tax-revenue-as-bitcoin/

You don't understand the predicament facing Bitcoin in 16-24 years. You say all transactions will be on Layer2s. Those fees will be low and layer 2 security needs to be provided by the Layer 1 network. The miners are there to secure Layer 1. So how will the fees be high enough to pay for their infrastructure and electrical costs? Even a $1000 Layer 1 fee won't be enough. Bitcoin mining is already unprofitable right now. Imagine 4 years from now the BTC mining rewards will be 50% less. And 4 years later?

16 years from now the BTC rewards will be 1/16th what it is now. The current cost to mine 1 BTC is around $70,000 and even went as high as $90,000 after the recent halving. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

$70,000 x 16 = $1,120,000 mining cost per BTC at current difficulty and energy costs
$90,000 x 16 = $1,440,000 mining cost per BTC at April 2024 difficulty and energy costs

24 years from now the BTC rewards will be 1/64th what it is now. The current cost to mine 1 BTC is around $70,000 and even went as high as $90,000 after the recent halving.

$70,000 x 64 = $4,480,000 per BTC mining cost per BTC at current difficulty and energy costs
$90,000 x 64 = $5,760,000 per BTC mining cost per BTC at April 2024 difficulty and energy costs

Energy costs will likely be much higher. So the cost to mine 1 BTC 16-24 years from now will probably be a lot higher than indicated above. It will become a centralized network. Governments could sustain it if they secured their currencies with BTC. But there is a question mark around how long decentralized BTC mining will be sustainable given that it is unprofitable for miners at current BTC prices.

1              2024 (1x)
.5             2028 (2x)
.25           2032 (4x)
.125         2036 (8x)
.0625       2040 (16x)
.03125     2044 (32x)
.015625   2048 (64x)

Mining difficulty adjusts approx every 10 mins, which ensures mining is always incentivized. BTC mining also gravitates to the cheapest form available over time, and mining rewards will increase over time (as BTC will rise over time, both in adoption and nominal value). And yes, although we will see many more transactions on L2, there will be enough transactions on-chain to keep everyone incentivised. And really if not, some careful tweaks will be made to the code, of course never impacting the 21m coin absolute cap.

[French]

Why Vitalik Was Wrong!
In 2017, Vitalik, founder of Ethereum, introduced the concept of the Blockchain Trilemma.

He stated that it was impossible to find a decentralised, secure, and fast method of blockchain transacting. If this problem could be solved, it would bring about cryptocurrency and blockchain mass adoption.
Scalable blockchain such as solana has come closer and closer to achieving this.
 
There is no room for improvement for ETH, its design was based on an obsolete model and the proof of stake has not helped anything.
the stacking of layers will lead to its downfall

[Griffith]

Why Vitalik Was Wrong!
In 2017, Vitalik, founder of Ethereum, introduced the concept of the Blockchain Trilemma.

He stated that it was impossible to find a decentralised, secure, and fast method of blockchain transacting. If this problem could be solved, it would bring about cryptocurrency and blockchain mass adoption.
Scalable blockchain such as solana has come closer and closer to achieving this.
 
There is no room for improvement for ETH, its design was based on an obsolete model and the proof of stake has not helped anything.
the stacking of layers will lead to its downfall

Since January 2022, Solana has seen around half a dozen significant outages and 15 partial or major outage days.

The incidents varied in severity, ranging from partial to total network outages, and their causes included software vulnerabilities in the network and denial-of-service and resource exhaustion attacks.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-outage-client-diversity-beta

[French]

it's anecdotal.
All few crashes duration were max 2 hours.
About 6 hours on a year for a 24/7 operational model.
What about share market, bank, Swift network etc..closed 60% of the year.

[Griffith]

it's anecdotal.
All few crashes duration were max 2 hours.
About 6 hours on a year for a 24/7 operational model.
What about share market, bank, Swift network etc..closed 60% of the year.

If it keeps crashing or having problems, there's something wrong with the design. There have been a high amount of transaction failures and this problem is ongoing.

The Ethereum network has never had any outages or crashes.

Solana might be the cheaper option, but it's unreliable.

[gib]

In case anyone wants to watch or attend this historic BTC event. Trump himself attending (as well as Kamila apparently..)

https://b.tc/conference/2024

[gib]

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/07/26/us-presidential-candidate-rfk-jr-says-hes-fully-committed-to-bitcoin/?

[obsidian]

Mining difficulty adjusts approx every 10 mins, which ensures mining is always incentivized. BTC mining also gravitates to the cheapest form available over time, and mining rewards will increase over time (as BTC will rise over time, both in adoption and nominal value). And yes, although we will see many more transactions on L2, there will be enough transactions on-chain to keep everyone incentivised. And really if not, some careful tweaks will be made to the code, of course never impacting the 21m coin absolute cap.

The BTC price may rise but the rewards to the miners in BTC will half every 4 years. Sooner than later it will cause problems with Bitcoin's centralization and security. Ethereum is becoming more secure and decentralized as more people enter staking. ETF staking is also coming which will help push ETH higher.

As I mentioned, Bitcoin mining is already unprofitable based on the current price. And it is already becoming more centralized which kind of blows the "secure" narrative.

And what do you mean by "careful tweaks will be made to the code"? I thought the whole premise was that Bitcoin is unchanging. That's one of the FUD criticisms leveled at Ethereum by the BTC Maxi community. It would require a lot of code revisions including switching to POS and also removing the 21 million cap and introducing a very low inflation via staking and burning like Ethereum.

BTC mining is a dead end in the long run. 16-24 years I reckon, if not sooner. The only thing that would save BTC mining is if governments decided to secure the network via tax payer help and mine regardless of profitability. But it's still a dumb enterprise. There's nothing special about POW mining. I did it for years. And my Ethereum mining rigs were a lot more complicated and amazing pieces of hardware compared to Bitcoin ASIC miners which I view as appliances.

https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-nears-6-year-low/

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Nears 6-Year Low
Foundry and Antpool mined 54% of all Bitcoin blocks over the last year as the competitive landscape for mining eroded profitability.

According to Kurt Wuckert Jr.,the CEO and founder of Bitcoin SV mining pool Gorilla Pool, mining profitability for SHA256 blockchains is nearing a six-year low. In his view, some of the largest US-based Bitcoin miners are still profitable because they are publicly traded, and the value of their stock is included in total profitability.

“I can’t in good conscience ask you to spend your money on blockchain assets or mining equipment because of what is transpiring in the background right now,” said Wuckert Jr. to an audience in Miami at Crypto Connect Palm Beach.

He alluded to miners being a large consumer of electricity by hashing, which creates profit opportunities in power arbitrage, and further muddies the waters of Bitcoin’s hashing economics.

Bitcoin miners are ditching crypto because there's more money in AI

https://qz.com/bitcoin-miners-ditching-crypto-for-more-profitable-ai-1851598502

[obsidian]

If it keeps crashing or having problems, there's something wrong with the design. There have been a high amount of transaction failures and this problem is ongoing.

The Ethereum network has never had any outages or crashes.

Solana might be the cheaper option, but it's unreliable.

Good post. I agree. Solana will do well regardless of all these issues and because it has a smaller market cap. BlackRock came out today and said this - see below - probably to get more investors onboard with BTC and ETH. Once those funds are where they want them they will probably change their narrative about other crypto ETFs:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-foresees-very-little-interest-crypto-etfs-beyond-bitcoin-ethereum-bitcoin2024

BlackRock foresees 'very little interest' in crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum — Bitcoin 2024
Clients see Bitcoin and Ethereum as complements, not substitutes, in crypto portfolios, according to Blackrock's head of digital assets.

Asset manager BlackRock sees “very little interest” among clients in crypto beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and doesn’t foresee many crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outside of those two core digital assets, according to Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 25 in Nashville, Tennessee.

“I would say that our client base today, their interest overwhelmingly is in Bitcoin first, and then somewhat in ETH… and there’s very little interest today beyond those two,” Mitchnick said at a panel entitled From Strategy to Innovation: BlackRock's Bitcoin Journey.

“I don't think we're gonna see a long list of crypto ETFs,” Mitchnick said. BlackRock launched its first crypto exchange-traded funds — iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) — in January and July, respectively.

[obsidian]

In case anyone wants to watch or attend this historic BTC event. Trump himself attending (as well as Kamila apparently..)

https://b.tc/conference/2024

Bitcoin was displayed on the Vegas Dome. Now this is cool, I admit. The gold makes the Dome look amazing!

https://decrypt.co/241285/bitcoin-took-over-las-vegas-sphere-wheres-dogwifhat

[SouJerz]

BTC is GOLD! ETH is SILVER!

[Mayday]

Taking inspiration from loco

[obsidian]

Just read that Solana's blockchain is already over 150 TB (terabytes). Compare that with Bitcoin's < 0.6 TB. Ethereum Chain Full Sync Data Size is around 1.1 TB.

150 TB and growing sounds like a train wreck waiting to happen.

This was posted 3 years ago on Reddit.

Is Solana's Blockchain Storage Sustainable?
According to Solana, the network will generate 4 petabytes of data every year at full capacity. This wont be stored on each individual node but will be split across all nodes enabling a bit torrent-esque distribution of the data.

4 petabytes seems like a lot of data but Solana also plans to store this 100x (to avoid data loss and corruption). This means that on the network there will be 400 petabytes of data created every year (at full capacity). If this were spread over 1,000 validators it would entail 0.4 petabytes of data storage per validator per year. This seems pretty excessive... unless I am missing something.

How does Solana plan to solve this issue?

Quotes From Website:
- "At full capacity, the Solana network will generate 1gb/s * 365 days = 4 petabytes of data every year."
- "On some frequency, the network divides the ledger history into pieces to target some replication rate (currently we’re expecting a target rate around 100x)."

Website:
https://solana.com/news/archivers---solana-s-solution-to-petabytes-of-blockchain-data-storage

https://www.reddit.com/r/solana/comments/omte91/is_solanas_blockchain_storage_sustainable/

And here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/solana/comments/18q34o5/what_is_solanas_longterm_ledger_size_solution/