Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1132666 times)

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11550 on: November 24, 2024, 06:26:01 AM »
Let's look at your recent record as an expert in Securities laws ..



We are going around in circles here Flex. What is the purpose of you making this post? To show that I can sometimes be wrong in my predictions I am guessing?

I have already explained to you many times now, the SEC's job is to enforce the law (not make the law), And the SEC has taken action against, and successfully prosecuted hundreds of illegal "alt" issuers as well as those who facilitate the trading thereof. Will the SEC continue to pursue ETH as a security? It seems not. Did they have good reason to? Of course they did. The SEC is well funded, with some of the best securities lawyers in the world. They don't just bring cases for fun. When do bring a case, it is obviously with very good reason for doing so. And I can guarantee Gensler knows more about you than securities law (or even me for that matter). From an academic perspective, we had very good reason for our views. Not to mention Saylor also predicted ETH would not be approved as an ETF, among many other very smart people. I would suggest you to look more at the rationale of a person who makes a prediction when assessing their expertise, rather than the outcome per se. Not just in finance, but actually in any field.

Why did the SEC decide not pursue ETH? This is a much longer discussion, but if you do your research, or even if not, it should actually be blatantly obvious why so many alts are clearly securities - essentially they are simply business (at best), with shares issued to the public in those businesses, represented by "crypto tokens". Please go and read my prior posts for longer explanations, as I don't want to repeat myself more than is necessary, but in a nutshell, you can't take a security and just call it a "token" and then think its suddenly not a security. In securities language we say "we look at substance over form" to describe this principle.

Having said that, the securities-like qualities of ETH are in part why it is underperforming BTC (down 38% to BTC just this year alone) and why it will likely continue to do so. In the long run, the market figures these things out, regardless of any investor protections which are put in place.. So, if for example, every form of shitcoin was made "legal" we might see an initial flurry of interest, and followed by a seemingly endless supply of shitcoins issues and accompanying shitcoinery - it would not end well. But out of that mess, a very small number of such coins would eventually survive, with many "investors" having learned their lesson along the way, with of course BTC simply continuing to grow more and more dominant every time such a cycle completes, for obvious reasons.

If you prefer to watch videos rather then doing your own research, here is a good clip I urge you to watch

i=eNZbmcDngyj564wO

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11551 on: November 24, 2024, 06:32:01 AM »
The judge said it is “not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency.”

Here's an article from the South China Morning Post:

https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3287415/shanghai-court-says-crypto-ownership-legal-under-china-law-amid-bitcoin-price-surge

Griffith - I know you mean well. But a judge, in a single court in China, in a civil case, involving Bitcoin, does not, and cannot, make laws around what a "cryptocurrency" is, let along how it may be used in China - trust me on that. The commentary on issues not related to Bitcoin, (what we in latin call obiter dictum) is nevertheless of interest (and it is this what the media picked up on when reporting that "xyz is not "legal" in China). In reality it's far more complicated than that. Remember also, that to own any type of crypto in China means you need to either have created it, mined, it, purchased it (and/or be planning to sell it). All categories of which come with a range of legal risks in China, even for Bitcoin, let along any other "cryptocurrency". And it such a case, citing the obiter of a civil case, related to a dispute over the ownership of Bitcoin, of a judge in a Court in Shanghai, is not going to help you much ...

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11552 on: November 24, 2024, 07:16:57 AM »
Griffith - I know you mean well. But a judge, in a single court in China, in a civil case, involving Bitcoin, does not, and cannot, make laws around what a "cryptocurrency" is, let along how it may be used in China - trust me on that. The commentary on issues not related to Bitcoin, (what we in latin call obiter dictum) is nevertheless of interest (and it is this what the media picked up on when reporting that "xyz is not "legal" in China). In reality it's far more complicated than that. Remember also, that to own any type of crypto in China means you need to either have created it, mined, it, purchased it (and/or be planning to sell it). All categories of which come with a range of legal risks in China, even for Bitcoin, let along any other "cryptocurrency". And it such a case, citing the obiter of a civil case, related to a dispute over the ownership of Bitcoin, of a judge in a Court in Shanghai, is not going to help you much ...

The point is that the discussion is about cryptocurrency, to omit this and only refer to bitcoin is disingenuous.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11553 on: November 24, 2024, 09:46:19 AM »
The point is that the discussion is about cryptocurrency, to omit this and only refer to bitcoin is disingenuous.

Ah - well I did to prevent people from taking away the wrong principles to apply from this case. This has been my aim here all along. If you want to apply this judgement in some way, in a manner that exposes you to a "cryptocurrency" investment in China, be my guest. It will very likely work out not well for you...

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11554 on: November 24, 2024, 01:15:28 PM »
Ah - well I did to prevent people from taking away the wrong principles to apply from this case. This has been my aim here all along. If you want to apply this judgement in some way, in a manner that exposes you to a "cryptocurrency" investment in China, be my guest. It will very likely work out not well for you...

You still miss the point. It wasn't us "implying" anything. It was the judge dealing with the case setting new jurisprudence.

I'm sure you'll get there eventually




gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11555 on: November 25, 2024, 01:11:33 AM »
You still miss the point. It wasn't us "implying" anything. It was the judge dealing with the case setting new jurisprudence.

I'm sure you'll get there eventually


You may be confusing yourself a little bit. Unlike HK, or the US, China does not have a common law system. This case you are referring to, was from a court in Shanghai, (not Hong Kong, where common law and the principle of judge made law does exist). In China, judges simply apply statutes and indeed almost always exclude case law. In other words, court cases are not law, and the judges in such cases don't create precedents. The only laws and rules applied are those codified by the legislature - ie the National People's Congress (NPC) and the so-called Standing Committee of National People's Congress. (This concept is really not understood well by the typical "financial journalist" reporters such as the ones cited, and that in turn often leads to a misunderstanding as to what the law in China actually is). The concept of "case law as we in the US understand it to mean, and which you likely have some understanding of, does not apply in China. (One reason is that the CCP does not want judges making law, for obvious reasons).

To own any type of "crypto" in China means you need to either have created it, mined, it, purchased it (and/or be planning to sell it). All categories of which come with a range of legal risks under existing Chinese law, indeed even to some extent still with Bitcoin also (although it is becoming apparent that even in China judges and more importantly financial regulators are starting to view BTC as a commodity), let alone any other "cryptocurrency" (please see my posts explaining the applicable laws above). The law is not so much changing, but rather the understanding of what BTC is and what makes it unique and then applying the law to this unique asset (such as understanding why it is not a security under Chinese law) slowly is. So, whilst the comments of the judge in this case, are nevertheless still of interest, let's not get carried away with misunderstanding and misstating what the law in China actually is, and lets not obfuscate the fundamental distinctions between Bitcoin and "crypto".

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11556 on: November 27, 2024, 04:49:17 AM »
On a related note, speaking of China (albeit HK) we now have this very positive development...

https://dig.watch/updates/hong-kongs-za-bank-launches-bitcoin-and-ethereum-trading

affeman

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11557 on: November 27, 2024, 05:23:38 AM »
On a related note, speaking of China (albeit HK) we now have this very positive development...

https://dig.watch/updates/hong-kongs-za-bank-launches-bitcoin-and-ethereum-trading

Poor gib still soliloquizing trying to keep that thread and the hype about his imaginary coins going somehow ;D

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11558 on: November 27, 2024, 08:57:58 AM »
Poor gib still soliloquizing trying to keep that thread and the hype about his imaginary coins going somehow ;D

Imaginary coins that have gone from around 3.5K to 95K from the time this thread started...;D

affeman

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11559 on: November 27, 2024, 09:16:30 AM »
Imaginary coins that have gone from around 3.5K to 95K from the time this thread started...;D

Why don't you sell then? As long as everybody HODLs and nobody sells price doesn't mean sh*t, it starts getting interesting if u wanna get real money for em ;D

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11560 on: November 27, 2024, 12:04:04 PM »
Why don't you sell then? As long as everybody HODLs and nobody sells price doesn't mean sh*t, it starts getting interesting if u wanna get real money for em ;D

The "real money" as you call it, continues to devalue. You are looking at things backwards. BTC is the REAL MONEY. That was the entire purpose of its creation! 466 pages and BTC going up from 3.5K to 95K since this thread started and you still don't get it? Just get on board my man. Buy, and hodl. How hard can that be? If you follow this advice now, you will be extremely grateful you did in 10 years time - trust me on that.

We sell FAKE MONEY (Government printed fiat currencies) and buy REAL MONEY (BTC). The only time one might sell BTC is if one wanted to buy something of need or desire (car, house, food, etc), and even then we should not really sell BTC, but rather simply borrow against it if possible.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11561 on: November 27, 2024, 12:57:15 PM »
The "real money" as you call it, continues to devalue. You are looking at things backwards. BTC is the REAL MONEY. That was the entire purpose of its creation! 466 pages and BTC going up from 3.5K to 95K since this thread started and you still don't get it? Just get on board my man. Buy, and hodl. How hard can that be? If you follow this advice now, you will be extremely grateful you did in 10 years time - trust me on that.

We sell FAKE MONEY (Government printed fiat currencies) and buy REAL MONEY (BTC). The only time one might sell BTC is if one wanted to buy something of need or desire (car, house, food, etc), and even then we should not really sell BTC, but rather simply borrow against it if possible.

Maybe it could be worded as money with reflection of the liquidity cycle?

The reality is the bear market reflects the true value. Once excess money is thrown out, we know what we are left with. The bottom value is true value + adoption hence the value has trended up.

Once adoption slows nearing saturation, the bottom value reflects true value more accurately.

There will always be bear markets because we always have liquidity buildup. The spill over into alts is a reflection the core item has no more oomph/growth therefore it hunts for gains in Degenerate City. Once you are in Degen City, that’s the end and liquidity will exit. Then back to true value we go.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11562 on: November 27, 2024, 03:43:20 PM »
@Obsidian - do you recall our prior discussion on mining costs? You were concerned BTC miners were not profitable, whereas I pointed out that many were profitable and indeed were evening using excess funds to buy BTC, and where I explained the natural mining cycle?

Well, now, exactly as I have said, you can see - average cost of mining reported by MacroMicro to be $83349. Average price of coin now $97,000. So, not only is mining profitable, hash rate at record highs, but also the mining companies have made massive gains on the BTCs they accumulated (which they can either hodl, or use for business costs of cap-ex on new rigs). Its a beautiful virtuous cycle...
Hi Gib,

First of all, congrats on BTC running up to $99,553 on 11/22. It's only a matter of time before BTC breaches $100,000 and then things will get interesting. It's possible that BTC goes to $150-200K next year. We'll see!

Yes, it is now cheaper to mine than to buy BTC. Average cost to mine 1 BTC is currently around $88K. The problem for me still is the reduction in miner rewards every 4 years. 16-24 years from now it could be problematic.

I also think Saylor needs to stop buying BTC. He will become a single point of failure. MicroStrategy's value has completely detached from the crypto's performance.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/26/short-seller-slams-microstrategy-is-the-michael-sa/

MicroStrategy is unique on the stock market because it essentially acts like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF. Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor, one of the biggest evangelists for the digital coin, began buying it for his company in 2020, and it held 252,220 bitcoins as of the end of the third quarter.

However, one well-known short-seller is now saying MicroStrategy is overvalued and that its model is unsustainable. Andrew Left of Citron Research posted his thesis on X, saying that while his company was bullish on MicroStrategy in 2020 as a way to invest in Bitcoin, it had now reversed its position.

Citron said that MicroStrategy's value has completely detached from the crypto's performance. Citron noted that it was still bullish on Bitcoin but was hedging that bet with a short position in MicroStrategy.

The company's stock plunged 16% last Thursday when Citron published its short report.

The bear case for MicroStrategy

Left is correct that MicroStrategy's fundamentals have become detached from Bitcoin's value. It does have a small software business, but it's basically negligible as far as its valuation is concerned -- its market cap was $94.8 billion as of Nov. 22. It now identifies itself as a Bitcoin treasury company.

But its Bitcoin holdings don't justify that valuation, either, because based on its market cap and those holdings, the company is valued at $375,864 per token, which is nearly four times the price of the cryptocurrency -- $98,807 -- at the time of writing. The value of the Bitcoin held on its balance sheet is now $22.4 billion.

Currently, MicroStrategy is sitting on a gain of $49,441 per Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of $39,266. In total, it has gained $12.5 billion from its Bitcoin purchases.

The company also has $4.2 billion in long-term debt as it continues to borrow money and sell stock to buy the crypto.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11563 on: November 27, 2024, 03:46:41 PM »
Purchased borrowing against  btc
Nice, but how did you pay off the money you borrowed against BTC? Did you have to sell some BTC to pay off the loan? With ETH staking you can sell your staking yields to pay off loans and your principle ETH holdings remain untouched.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11564 on: November 27, 2024, 03:59:12 PM »
Why don't you sell then? As long as everybody HODLs and nobody sells price doesn't mean sh*t, it starts getting interesting if u wanna get real money for em ;D
If he sold 56 BTC it would not affect the price. There's enough liquidity to absorb that. An exchange with high liquidity would probably be the best place. He doesn't live in the US so he could use Binance. US customers have to use Binance.US which has a lot less volume so trades may take longer.

https://coinrivet.com/guides/trading/is-volume-important-for-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11565 on: November 27, 2024, 04:00:16 PM »
Maybe it could be worded as money with reflection of the liquidity cycle?

The reality is the bear market reflects the true value. Once excess money is thrown out, we know what we are left with. The bottom value is true value + adoption hence the value has trended up.

Once adoption slows nearing saturation, the bottom value reflects true value more accurately.

There will always be bear markets because we always have liquidity buildup. The spill over into alts is a reflection the core item has no more oomph/growth therefore it hunts for gains in Degenerate City. Once you are in Degen City, that’s the end and liquidity will exit. Then back to true value we go.
Good post. Perhaps the bottom and top meet each other half way over time.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11566 on: November 27, 2024, 04:01:52 PM »



obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11567 on: November 27, 2024, 04:08:58 PM »
Ethereum inflation has been 0.315% the past 30 days. It may go deflationary again once blob space is filled and an increase in transaction volume. L2 fees are now very low after the Dencun upgrade. It reduced the amount of ETH burned. Before Dencun Ethereum's inflation was around -0.5%.

Note that Bitcoin's current inflation is around 0.83% which is more than double the Ethereum inflation. Solana's inflation is around 6-7%. There's also a 11.16 million token (2.35% of supply) unlock next year in March. That might affect the price.

https://solana.messari.io/token-unlocks

https://ultrasound.money/

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11568 on: November 27, 2024, 11:59:07 PM »
Good post. Perhaps the bottom and top meet each other half way over time.


If it’s the bottom it’s mean reversion and should correlate to the Money supply expansion over a period of time the more mature it gets.

Once mean reversion is completed, it should begin trending up and correlate to liquidity.

The larger it gets the greater the odds it breaks The 4yr cycle. The ETFs likely changed the structure as it’s S&P flow related. The S&P doesn’t crash -85% every 4yrs and they are the biggest consistent buyers now.

Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11569 on: November 28, 2024, 06:43:48 PM »
Nice, but how did you pay off the money you borrowed against BTC? Did you have to sell some BTC to pay off the loan? With ETH staking you can sell your staking yields to pay off loans and your principle ETH holdings remain untouched.

Use btc as collateral, next year when loan is due  I just refinance using less collateral. Btc is up 30% since loan.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11570 on: November 29, 2024, 05:06:58 AM »
Just a little factoid ... this thread stated on 18 June 2015. At that time BTC was $225 per coin.

Today its, $97,000 per coin.

That is a an increase of 43,011% over that time period.

This is what happens when you get exponential demand and adoption of an asset which is truly limited in supply.


grubbiergoose

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11571 on: November 29, 2024, 12:55:29 PM »
Use btc as collateral, next year when loan is due  I just refinance using less collateral. Btc is up 30% since loan.

What place did you use for the loan? A lot of people got fucked from celsius using their platform.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11572 on: November 29, 2024, 01:29:31 PM »
Use btc as collateral, next year when loan is due  I just refinance using less collateral. Btc is up 30% since loan.
What are the refinance fees? Which entity is giving the loan and taking your BTC as collateral? What if they go up in smoke like FTX / Celsius?

We will likely have another bear market. When the BTC value declines you might be forced to pay off the loan. How will you pay it off? By selling BTC?

I fail to see how anyone can use BTC as collateral to get a loan and not end up selling BTC to pay off the loan. You won't be able to keep refinancing until you don't have to offer any BTC as collateral.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11573 on: November 30, 2024, 01:55:29 AM »
What are the refinance fees? Which entity is giving the loan and taking your BTC as collateral? What if they go up in smoke like FTX / Celsius?

We will likely have another bear market. When the BTC value declines you might be forced to pay off the loan. How will you pay it off? By selling BTC?

I fail to see how anyone can use BTC as collateral to get a loan and not end up selling BTC to pay off the loan. You won't be able to keep refinancing until you don't have to offer any BTC as collateral.

You have touched on a few things here. First is the risk of the custodian of the BTC as security, either going bankrupt, or committing theft of the coin via fraud. We of course all know NYKNYC, but if you are trusting a 3rd party to hold your coin as security, you had better go with a regulated financial institution, and/or hope that their assets are segregated, such that in the event they do collapse, your BTC does not form part of the assets against which creditors have a claim. So, read the lending T&Cs, which few people do. In the event of a lender collapse or fraud, you of course would still have the money they lent you, but usually that would be less than the value of the BTC iit is secured against. A safer way is to do this via smart contract, where the loan is governed entirely by pre-defined variables.

The second point you make really simply relates to volatility. Ie, how can we be sure that the value of the BTC does not drop to a level such that the lender makes a call on the security due to the agreed upon max loan to equity ratio being reached. And this is really about risk management. So, just like with a house, secured by a loan - we know that over time the nominal value of the house will increase beyond the nominal amount borrowed. So, lets say house is 1m, and you borrow 500K (paying interest only). Year 2, house is with 1.1m, year, 1.2m, year 3 drops to 950K, year 4to  900K, 5, 1m, 6, 1.2m, 7, 1.4m, 8 1,7m, 9 2m, etc. In other words, we know the nominal value of asset will go up over time, but we know there is a degree of volatility. So the key is to borrow only as much as the max vol you can tolerate (and then also to have extra BTC available in case you really are asked to top up the loan ratio). So, in other words, say you forecast that at any point, BTC could drop a max amount of 50% in value (Eg now, from 100K to 50K), the most you would ever borrow against that BTC to ensure you are never wiped out is 50K per coin.

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11574 on: December 01, 2024, 06:26:19 AM »
Ethereum ETFs See Record $333M Inflows, Outpacing Bitcoin Funds as Catch-Up Trade Gains Momentum

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/01/ethereum-etfs-see-record-333-m-inflows-outpacing-bitcoin-funds-as-catch-up-trade-gains-momentum