Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1132863 times)

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11850 on: January 31, 2025, 09:38:22 PM »
Are you sure? I'm talking about retail, not institutional. BTC's price was not driven up by retail as much as institutional.

Home prices are up but sellers will pay just as much for a new or replacement house. The higher values benefit people that have multiple homes and want to unload some from their portfolio. But single home owners don't benefit at all. The transaction value is just higher on both ends.

Many people are leasing cars. They can't afford to buy them.

Here are some headlines:

U.S. credit card defaults soar; total debt hits 12-year high

https://fortune.com/2025/01/23/credit-card-defaults-debt-levels-increasing/

U.S. Consumer Debt Rises to $5.1 Trillion in the Third Quarter

https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/11/u-s-consumer-debt-rises-to-5-1-trillion-in-the-third-quarter/

Total outstanding U.S. consumer debt stood at $5.10 trillion for the third quarter of 2024, increasing at an annualized rate of 3.28% (seasonally adjusted), according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit Report. In general, consumer debt has been slowing over the past two years, peaking at a high rate of 9.16% in the second quarter of 2022. However, the third quarter of 2024 experienced an uptick in growth from the previous quarter’s rate of 1.14%.

The G.19 report excludes mortgage loans, so the data primarily reflects consumer debt in the form of student loans, auto loans, and credit card debt. As consumer spending has outpaced personal income, savings rates have been declining and consumer debt has increased. Previously, consumer debt growth had been slowing, as high inflation and rising interest rates led people to reduce their borrowing. However, the growth rate ticked up in the latest quarter, possibly reflecting expectations of rate cuts that took place at the quarter’s end.


Retail crypto investors appear to be going for the meme coin casino on Solana. They think they can throw some money and make it big. But they end up getting rekked. Have you seen the 13-year old kid who rug-pulled his meme on video? They doxxed him and then drove up his meme after he sold out. He then came out with a second meme called "SORRY" and pulled the rug again.

Yes I am sure.

Forget headlines because you can’t quantify the data.

S&P to 7k
Property ATH this year and huge growth in 2026

This is the biggest wealth generating period in your lifetime and you have been bearish the entire time

SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11851 on: February 02, 2025, 08:47:22 AM »
BTC under 100k!
Keep stacking Satoshis!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11852 on: February 02, 2025, 10:49:07 PM »

ETH just now hit yet another low (4.5 year decline) to BTC. As you all know I predicted this perfectly back when Eth was 0.057 to on BTC. Its now 0.031, and I will expect it will fall below 0.03 over the next few months.  Its absolute insanity to keep holding in a situation like this - do not gamble with your future, when the obvious route to long term success (and failure) is so obvious.


I did warn you...

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11853 on: February 02, 2025, 11:00:54 PM »
Eth will soon fall to a 5 year low (for obvious reasons) which will be another psychological blow for anyone believing in the myth of a 4 year Eth or "alt cycle".

Right now the decline has been rather slow and steady, much like a boiling frog scenario. But, as ETH's market cap shrinks, the impact of selloffs can become more volatile to price, which is what we might well see as more get out and fewer get in.

So, whilst I think its most likely we will see a consistent and continued selloff, but maybe just gradually picking up pace, I do want to warn though, that we may see a large liquidity driven capitulation at some point, where the volume of sellers increases, and where you literally have almost an entire absence of willing buyers. If that were to occur, we could see a rapid fall to around the $2500 level. And if that happens, someone will now doubt argue, "that was the capitulation we needed - now we are at the bottom!" :). Only it would not be the bottom. The bottom is technically around $100, although it may be a long time before we ultimately get to that level with ups and downs along the way.


And now we can see - I absolutely NAILED IT. I mean, right down even to the $2500 target level I mentioned (as above).

Obsidian - can you can't say I didn't warn you. I really really did try (perhaps even to the point of coming across as annoying).

SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11854 on: February 03, 2025, 08:41:13 AM »
Buy the news

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11855 on: February 03, 2025, 11:10:42 AM »
Any thoughts on the sovereign wealth fund? Is that something that is held in American dollars by the US government? Can it be held in gold or bitcoins? Or we don't know yet?

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11856 on: February 03, 2025, 11:13:53 AM »
Any thoughts on the sovereign wealth fund? Is that something that is held in American dollars by the US government? Can it be held in gold or bitcoins? Or we don't know yet?

We don't know yet. Lots of talk and bluster at the moment. Eg it will own Bitcoin, shares in TikTok, shares of Nvidia, gold etc..

Right now this guy is talking a lot - lets see what sticks.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11857 on: February 03, 2025, 03:48:03 PM »
And now we can see - I absolutely NAILED IT. I mean, right down even to the $2500 target level I mentioned (as above).

Obsidian - can you can't say I didn't warn you. I really really did try (perhaps even to the point of coming across as annoying).
I made a "cover your ass" post about that. See below:

ETH could go down to 0.03 BTC or even lower in the short term. My opinion is at some point there will be a major reversal. BTC is extremely overvalued relative to ETH.

What can I say. Morons fell for the trade war tarrifs and panic sold Ethereum. People were already predicting during the selling that Trump would come out on Monday and pause the tarrif disputes so the stock market would not be hit as hard.

And what did Trump do? Buy a ton of ETH, apparently!

Let's see what happens tomorrow when they provide more details about the digital asset stockpile.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11858 on: February 03, 2025, 03:50:26 PM »
Grayscale's ETHE sees ETH Spot ETF inflow for the first time. That's the one with the higher fees. The other one also saw an inflow.

Curious to see the Fidelity and BlackRock numbers later.

https://farside.co.uk/eth/

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11859 on: February 03, 2025, 03:53:02 PM »
Yes I am sure.

Forget headlines because you can’t quantify the data.

S&P to 7k
Property ATH this year and huge growth in 2026

This is the biggest wealth generating period in your lifetime and you have been bearish the entire time
Have you ever been diagnosed as bi-polar?! lmao!

You were the one calling the top of BTC at $72k a year ago. Sounds like you were very bullish..... NOT!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11860 on: February 03, 2025, 10:28:19 PM »

What can I say. Morons fell for the trade war tarrifs and panic sold Ethereum. People were already predicting during the selling that Trump would come out on Monday and pause the tarrif disputes so the stock market would not be hit as hard.


Well you could say, "Damn, hats off to you. Uncanny how you keep absolutely nailing your Eth predictions"...

As for these "Trump just bought Eth" memes, I think for half the people posting these its actually as a joke laughing at these guys and laughing at these guys buying Eth and Trump coins - but then others are posting it not understanding the joke". Funny environment all these alt people play in that's for sure. What we do know (as I have explained earlier) is that nothing this "World Liberty Finance Group" outfit is doing is to be taken seriously (for obvious reasons).

Yes, the sovereign wealth fund will be interesting! Short term, anything they buy should get a boot - long term, no matter what they buy it cannot change fundamental value.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11861 on: February 04, 2025, 03:38:04 AM »
Have you ever been diagnosed as bi-polar?! lmao!

You were the one calling the top of BTC at $72k a year ago. Sounds like you were very bullish..... NOT!

Yes, I am retarded. I’ve done enough to know what I say or do is never enough for anyone. Although it sounds like you missed basically everything bullish I have said for years lol.

I bought at 17.5k and we got 15.5k. I said 76k, we got 74k and I sold and bought -90% down alts. I posted all of those moves and said I wouldn’t provide future moves because it was pointless.

Recently I provided the correlation I used years in advance which nailed the sell off target from 76k and also the next top target of 99.8k. I’ll post it for you again.

When Trump launched memecoins on Solana they all yelled “trump picked Solana, let’s fucking goooo!!!” He dumped 200M…..

Trump then Bought ETH and everyone yelled “the President holds ETH!!! let’s fucking goooo!!!”
ETH holders then got round tripped 8yrs to BTC…… 

When holders encourage FUD, price generally doesn’t do much. One has to be open to the idea of inverse 2021.

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11862 on: February 04, 2025, 06:08:13 AM »



French

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11863 on: February 04, 2025, 06:20:11 AM »
This just shows that they are investing without understanding anything. Eric and Barron are just basic, brainless investors.
All the influencers are former investors back when Ethereum was the only one with all the extra features compared to Bitcoin. now they just don't want to give up their tokens from a blockchain that is dying because it is impossible to reform it.
XRP is the same but worse in terms of mafia, token manipulation and the value of this non-blockchain.
$

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11864 on: February 04, 2025, 06:25:53 AM »
The Trump family seem to be die-hard ETH maximalists  ;D

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11865 on: February 04, 2025, 06:31:49 AM »
'You can thank me later'  ;D


gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11866 on: February 04, 2025, 10:25:52 AM »
Not sure those investors from whom he has so far lost 100m and is 25% down in less than a month will be doing much thanking of him later lol!

Lets just say, that running a crypto hedge fund, doesn't exactly seem to be his biggest strength lol!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11867 on: February 04, 2025, 12:14:35 PM »
David Sachs said it TWICE.

We are looking into the feasibility of a BITCOIN Strategic Reserve.

Not a single mention of Eth at all... lol

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11868 on: February 04, 2025, 03:40:33 PM »
David Sachs said it TWICE.

We are looking into the feasibility of a BITCOIN Strategic Reserve.

Not a single mention of Eth at all... lol
Stablecoins were mentioned more than Bitcoin. And they talked about "digital assets" - plural! Web 3.0 was also mentioned. Ethereum is WEB 3.0, not Bitcoin.

Stablecoins can't be on Bitcoin natively. Ethereum holds the majority of stablecoin supply. There's also a few billion stablecoins on Ethereum Layer 2s.

Current stablecoins support the dollar so is a valuable entity for the US. Stablecoins need blockchains like Ethereum to function, Ethereum does not need stablecoins to function. But they both help each other.

ETH - $117.645 billion
TRON - $60.668 billion
SOL - $11.98 billion
BSC - $6.951 billion
BASE - $3.98 billion

If you read between the lines, it is clear Ethereum and other chains would be an asset that the US will support.

https://defillama.com/stablecoins/chains

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11869 on: February 04, 2025, 03:45:09 PM »
I doubt the strategic reserve details will be released soon. They don't want the price to runup before they can enter a position. They will probably decide behind the scenes and might even want the prices to come down so they can enter at a lower level. Remember the gold confiscations in 1933. They declared the price at $20.67 per troy ounce. Once the US had enough gold they allowed the public to buy again. Real shitty move. I doubt they would get away with that now. So they have to try other tactics.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11870 on: February 04, 2025, 03:50:26 PM »
https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/as-trumps-crypto-project-moves-eth-donald-trumps-son-endorses-ether

Donald Trump’s son endorses Ether as Trump family crypto project moves ETH
Eric Trump publicly suggested it's a "great time" to invest in Ether, as the family crypto venture moved its Ether holdings.

On Monday, Donald Trump’s son, Eric Trump, appeared to endorse the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, on social media: “In my opinion, it’s a great time to add $ETH,” he wrote.

On the same day, the Trump family crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, transferred more than $307 million in crypto to Coinbase Prime, including $212.6 million in ETH (Ether).

In the immediate aftermath of the post, Ether's price jumped to $2,900, while also being propped up by President Donald Trump’s decision to halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada. World Liberty Financial denied any dubious activity: “To be clear, we are not selling tokens — we are simply reallocating assets for ordinary business purposes,” the Trump-linked crypto project said.

Eric Trump maintains a financial stake in World Liberty Financial, and also holds Ether, Bitcoin, Solana, Sui, and other cryptocurrencies.

His social media post quickly engendered discussion in the crypto community, particularly among Bitcoin advocates who questioned Ether’s market prospects relative to Bitcoin. Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Research at Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms, dismissed the endorsement, writing, “Adding ETH to my list of things not to buy.” Others on social media castigated Eric Trump for not including his wallet address or Etherscan link detailing his own Ether transaction history.

The price of Ether is currently trading near $2,825, according to CoinGecko.

Despite the Trump family's involvement, some analysts view Ether's recent market action as a bullish signal, though they urge caution. "Yesterday’s 34% drop in Ether was quickly bought up, which typically indicates a growing presence of buyers in the market,” Arthur Azizov told TheStreet Crypto. “When we see such a strong recovery, it often suggests that the price is likely to move upward."

However, Azizov told TheStreet Crypto that Ether's price could fall again before potentially continuing upward. “Yesterday’s move, which ended at $2,125, has formed another liquidity shelf in the $2,112-$2,094 range, which means that the price could revisit the $2,000 level in the near future,” he said.

Escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. have also impacted crypto markets in the last 24 hours. “Ether [has] fallen under its 200-day moving average and enter[ed] the consolidation area from August to October last year,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst. “We often view Ether as the ‘canary’ of the crypto market, and it’s not feeling great.”

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11871 on: February 04, 2025, 03:54:02 PM »
^^^^^^
Eric Trump's tweet could have been a test to see how volatile Ethereum is. Musk proved before how he could influence the Doge price. The reality is any asset can be pumped or dumped by the right person, including Bitcoin.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11872 on: February 04, 2025, 03:57:40 PM »
This just shows that they are investing without understanding anything. Eric and Barron are just basic, brainless investors.
All the influencers are former investors back when Ethereum was the only one with all the extra features compared to Bitcoin. now they just don't want to give up their tokens from a blockchain that is dying because it is impossible to reform it.
XRP is the same but worse in terms of mafia, token manipulation and the value of this non-blockchain.
The majority of stablecoins are on Ethereum. Ethereum has the highest TVL. 13-year olds care about memes on Solana, cheap fees, and don't worry about failed transactions. Big institutions though do care about reliability. High fees are not an issue for them either.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11873 on: February 04, 2025, 11:30:43 PM »
I can't take you serious when you make ridiculous claims that ETH will decline to $100 which is a fair value. Are you nuts?! That's completely naïve and delusional thinking. You were wrong about the SEC and Ethereum and you're wrong about that.

There are over 1 million validators and 33 million staked ETH.

Ethereum is arguably more decentralized than Bitcoin. It never goes down, offers yield at a lower inflation rate than the current BTC, is being adopted worldwide by institutions and banks, has a first-mover smart contract advantage like Bitcoin has with blockchains.

There are more developers working on building out Ethereum than any other chain by a large margin.

Just the ETH L2 Base has about as many developers as Bitcoin. There are ten times more developers in the Ethereum network than Bitcoin. And many of them started with Bitcoin, including Vitalik.

https://www.developerreport.com/

ETH is extremely undervalued against BTC. A fair value to me should at a minimum be 3:1 or even 1:1. Maybe ETH is more valuable than BTC when you consider all BTC's shortcomings and even disregard the bigger ETH supply!  ;D

Obsidian - you really are, naively, confusing multiple concepts here. MayDay says a lot of stuff, but one thing he has a number of times tried to explain (and I think it just went over your head) which I agree with, are the different functions of BTC vs Eth, which in turn are relevant to their valuations.

I am thinking now, by the way that you talk, that you may never really have had experience in fundamental valuation of assets - am I correct? (For example, the "Trump coin", which you mentioned at its peak you "wished you had bought", has fallen from $70 to $18 in less than a few weeks. This is really a perfect example of lack of understanding of asset valuation fundamentals).

So, let me explain a little, as maybe it is wrong of me to assume everyone innately knows how this is done. (As you know, I come from a traditional finance and investing background, so to me and those around me, this is really quite an innate skill, much like a language we have grown up with. Its core to how we look at any asset or investment opportunity. But I get it - there is an entirely generation who has grown up not learning these skills - perhaps especially the whole crypto degen and Wall St Bets generation. And we see examples of it on this thread, and not only from you).

Price is, in the short term, driven by demand for an asset. And the creation of an Eth staking yield post-merge led to some initial appeal for Eth. They thought they were being smart in trying to outdo BTC. But they actually laid their own trap which commenced their downfall. Indeed, the downside of such shitcoinery, is that this development was actually the final nail in the coffin which led Eth to be perceived (and valued) as a capital value asset (as opposed to a store of value asset). And what that means is that it then becomes more likely to be priced over time, on an intrinsic valuation methodology using the traditional discounted cash flow model which is applied to valuing other income generating assets such as stocks. And that’s where, over time, price of Eth will be a lot more tied to revenue and profitability metrics as opposed to store of value utility (which BTC now owns) or any kind of other usage or adoption metrics of Eth which initially created some interest in the asset. This is also the case due to Eth's security-ike properties, which the market is slowly understanding, and which I have tried to explain so many times. Remember, its not what the SEC calls Eth which matters, but rather what Eth fundamentally is which does. And again, due to its security like properties, it increasingly becomes valued as a security would - that cannot be stopped, which is why my and Gensler's many earlier explanations about Eth's security-like properties, vs BTC are important to understand and take heed of. I was 100% right about this, and we are of course now slowly seeing the consequences of this being realized (for obvious reasons). Remember earlier my explanation that you can put a piece of shit into an ETF wrapper - but that does not fundamentally change the quality of what is its you have wrapped! Whether you call it a security or not, it is irrelevant. The market has sniffed this out, and it knows what Eth is. And that is of course why Eth has continued to flop.

As for what Eth should be valued using a DCF model, I deliberately triggered you with my eventual $100 valuation statement. I did it because I am trying to prompt you on your journey of understanding, to think, deeply, "how do I correctly value Eth? (Clue - its not "oh 1000's of developers use it, Eric Trump said he likes it, banks find it secure, etc). Really - think about it. Look at the total revenue, (and try to forecast the impact on future revenue growth from cheaper and faster alternatives such as Solana and others), and then look at the current market cap - then look at the PE, and then compare that to a similar size tech company. And then consider relative valuations for the risk taken. That will give you your number. Treat Eth as a business, and assess whether the price per share is currently at good value.

And then further, bear in mind that any increase in the value of Eth is fundamentally incongruous to its desirability to being used as a utility token. Think about that for a moment. You are investing in an asset which you seem to value due to it being used as token for a smart chain for certain typos of transactions, yet the more the price of such a token goes up, the less of an incentive there is to use it and the more of an incentive there is to use an alternative (the number of which are infinite)! Vitalik also commented on this phenomenon many years ago. Think about the insanity of this for just a moment.

As to what is Eth's true valuation is on a proper valuation methodology, it’s a longer conversation with numerous variables which require future assumptions which are rather unclear. I have done some back of envelope calculations using my models and I get a current valuation ranging between as low as $100 to as high as, theoretically, $5000, (depending among other things an assumption of continued future revenue growth, and also estimates on what number I should use as the future risk free rate of return). What I do think though, regardless, is that we are on a progressively downward trend, coming from an extremely overvalued level due a fundamental investor misunderstanding of value. And that is a really tough tide to swim against as an investor.

Right, now that really is it for a while. Good luck! Please consider scaling back into BTC. That little selloff in Eth should serve as warning as to what might be ahead. Markets often give you these little hits and warnings - ignore them at your peril. These are like little earthquake tremors before the big one. Please do some thinking - do the exercise I suggested on another post, of you debating all the pros/cons with yourself - really I suggest you do this. Do not let me have to come back still debating on this with you when Eth hits a 5 year low to BTC, which will happen (for obvious reasons).

And PS - you know which paragraph I will be quoting of myelf, when I do come back to this thread, don't you. :)

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #11874 on: February 05, 2025, 04:42:15 PM »
Obsidian - you really are, naively, confusing multiple concepts here. MayDay says a lot of stuff, but one thing he has a number of times tried to explain (and I think it just went over your head) which I agree with, are the different functions of BTC vs Eth, which in turn are relevant to their valuations.

I am thinking now, by the way that you talk, that you may never really have had experience in fundamental valuation of assets - am I correct? (For example, the "Trump coin", which you mentioned at its peak you "wished you had bought", has fallen from $70 to $18 in less than a few weeks. This is really a perfect example of lack of understanding of asset valuation fundamentals).

So, let me explain a little, as maybe it is wrong of me to assume everyone innately knows how this is done. (As you know, I come from a traditional finance and investing background, so to me and those around me, this is really quite an innate skill, much like a language we have grown up with. Its core to how we look at any asset or investment opportunity. But I get it - there is an entirely generation who has grown up not learning these skills - perhaps especially the whole crypto degen and Wall St Bets generation. And we see examples of it on this thread, and not only from you).

Price is, in the short term, driven by demand for an asset. And the creation of an Eth staking yield post-merge led to some initial appeal for Eth. They thought they were being smart in trying to outdo BTC. But they actually laid their own trap which commenced their downfall. Indeed, the downside of such shitcoinery, is that this development was actually the final nail in the coffin which led Eth to be perceived (and valued) as a capital value asset (as opposed to a store of value asset). And what that means is that it then becomes more likely to be priced over time, on an intrinsic valuation methodology using the traditional discounted cash flow model which is applied to valuing other income generating assets such as stocks. And that’s where, over time, price of Eth will be a lot more tied to revenue and profitability metrics as opposed to store of value utility (which BTC now owns) or any kind of other usage or adoption metrics of Eth which initially created some interest in the asset. This is also the case due to Eth's security-ike properties, which the market is slowly understanding, and which I have tried to explain so many times. Remember, its not what the SEC calls Eth which matters, but rather what Eth fundamentally is which does. And again, due to its security like properties, it increasingly becomes valued as a security would - that cannot be stopped, which is why my and Gensler's many earlier explanations about Eth's security-like properties, vs BTC are important to understand and take heed of. I was 100% right about this, and we are of course now slowly seeing the consequences of this being realized (for obvious reasons). Remember earlier my explanation that you can put a piece of shit into an ETF wrapper - but that does not fundamentally change the quality of what is its you have wrapped! Whether you call it a security or not, it is irrelevant. The market has sniffed this out, and it knows what Eth is. And that is of course why Eth has continued to flop.

As for what Eth should be valued using a DCF model, I deliberately triggered you with my eventual $100 valuation statement. I did it because I am trying to prompt you on your journey of understanding, to think, deeply, "how do I correctly value Eth? (Clue - its not "oh 1000's of developers use it, Eric Trump said he likes it, banks find it secure, etc). Really - think about it. Look at the total revenue, (and try to forecast the impact on future revenue growth from cheaper and faster alternatives such as Solana and others), and then look at the current market cap - then look at the PE, and then compare that to a similar size tech company. And then consider relative valuations for the risk taken. That will give you your number. Treat Eth as a business, and assess whether the price per share is currently at good value.

And then further, bear in mind that any increase in the value of Eth is fundamentally incongruous to its desirability to being used as a utility token. Think about that for a moment. You are investing in an asset which you seem to value due to it being used as token for a smart chain for certain typos of transactions, yet the more the price of such a token goes up, the less of an incentive there is to use it and the more of an incentive there is to use an alternative (the number of which are infinite)! Vitalik also commented on this phenomenon many years ago. Think about the insanity of this for just a moment.

As to what is Eth's true valuation is on a proper valuation methodology, it’s a longer conversation with numerous variables which require future assumptions which are rather unclear. I have done some back of envelope calculations using my models and I get a current valuation ranging between as low as $100 to as high as, theoretically, $5000, (depending among other things an assumption of continued future revenue growth, and also estimates on what number I should use as the future risk free rate of return). What I do think though, regardless, is that we are on a progressively downward trend, coming from an extremely overvalued level due a fundamental investor misunderstanding of value. And that is a really tough tide to swim against as an investor.

Right, now that really is it for a while. Good luck! Please consider scaling back into BTC. That little selloff in Eth should serve as warning as to what might be ahead. Markets often give you these little hits and warnings - ignore them at your peril. These are like little earthquake tremors before the big one. Please do some thinking - do the exercise I suggested on another post, of you debating all the pros/cons with yourself - really I suggest you do this. Do not let me have to come back still debating on this with you when Eth hits a 5 year low to BTC, which will happen (for obvious reasons).

And PS - you know which paragraph I will be quoting of myelf, when I do come back to this thread, don't you. :)
Thanks for the finance lecture, Professor Buffett. I’ll be sure to run ETH through a DCF model before making my next move. Meanwhile, the market will keep doing what it does—being unpredictable and not necessarily aligning with rigid valuation theories. But please, do come back and quote yourself in the future. I’m sure it’ll be enlightening.

You make a lot of bold claims about ETH’s valuation, but you’re also hedging with a $100-$5000 range, which is comically wide. You can’t simultaneously argue that ETH is on a path to collapse while acknowledging that valuation models are highly variable. Markets don’t strictly follow textbook DCF models, especially in crypto, where utility, adoption, and network effects play a major role. And if ETH truly follows security-like valuation principles, why has BTC—an asset with zero yield—outperformed most traditional ‘store of value’ assets in the last decade?