On a related note, BTC seems to have really established a solid support level at $50,000. And ETH similarly so at $1800 (albeit maybe not quite as solid).
55k is now the 2nd largest HODL point second to 11k and this is where the metrics and models begin to blow up.
The reason models are blowing up is because they are all based on diminishing returns on the assumption there is a base level of market establishment and maturing thereafter.
We have a BTC mining halving event each 4yrs in May give or take followed by a bullrun in the 18mths afterwards. This is what i have been watching more than models.
This run vs Jun 2016 -3% vs 27% so we started on the back foot out of the gate.
This run vs Oct 2016 46% vs 31% so we covered the gap and overtook during this period.
This run vs Dec 2016 207% vs 83%
This run vs Mar 2017 495% vs 105%
To put that into perspective if BTC were to hold where it is for April.....May.....June..
...July.... we would merely be even with the growth bullrun of 2017 up to that point (we are 4 months ahead).
We can further crush the diminishing returns argument when we look at the overall trend for the 9 month period post halving. In the 2017 bullrun the peak month change was 31%, 2 months of 27%, 1 month of 23% and the rest all smaller. In this bullrun we have a peak of 47%, 43% and 36% with the remaining mostly in the 20s.
Of the 9 months we have had 3 months with larger MOM growth than the peak growth during the 2017 bullrun. Of the remaining 6 months half were approx 25%. In other words, the entire 9 months trend is blowing apart the trend of the 2017 run and this is why the models are beginning to blow up in kind.
So where does it end up?
Well in 2017, 5 of the remaining 9 months with massive growth - 50% upwards so this is what we are looking at. In Q2 2017 we saw 125% growth over the previous March close.
Therefore during Q2 2021 if we expect the growth to decrease from the previous 9 months to the level of 2017, using 125% growth we would see a price approx 132k before end of June.
If we do not see a price around that mark, it means the trend is broken.........
