Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

Hopefully these head-hunters come across some of your predictions over the past 20months in this thread and can get you on their books at an extreme discount  🤣.

Seriously, thought this cycle might be different myself. Unfortunately the market is no where near mature enough yet still holding up surprisingly well considering multiple black Swan events. How long it can sustain the onslaught if/when last capitulation wick down is any ones guess.

I was overly confident  we wouldnt venture near previous cycles ATH. A few more lower CPI prints with ceasing of QT and market "should" improve. Times like these I just  turn away from pricing, last 2 bear markets were brutal on me emotionally. This one hasn't had the same effect.....yet.

This whole 3AC seems to be centred around defi, degen shitcoins? This could be good for btc.

Celsius I've heard they are illiquid rather than  insolvent, who knows at this point? They have alot of wbtc  and steth in the vault and rumours are wall St trying to liquidate them. If that happens it's discount time for everyone ballsy enough to enter the market.

My crypto stuff was shit because I was listening to gurus. Prior to that I had a top of 55k for BTC then I was lead astray by spastics and became one myself. Been right the last 7mths though since I sold as I’m following my own reasoning.

My economic stuff and consumer stuff is pretty good. Been bang on major things well in advance and made 7 figs from those I took action on. The true measure is what you took action on as that means you backed your words. I say all sorts of shit because it’s discussion, taking action is a different approach.

This cycle BTC is at the top of the S curve. We are late. 2024-25 BTC to 96k assuming it doesn’t get toasted by something else.

Price now 20.3k and BTC dominance dropped further into the 44s now. This is the end now.

[Flexacon]

This cycle BTC is at the top of the S curve. We are late. 2024-25 BTC to 96k assuming it doesn’t get toasted by something else.

Price now 20.3k and BTC dominance dropped further into the 44s now. This is the end now.

I don't think we're at the top of the S curve. The top would mean 80 to 90% of the population would have some kind of  direct or indirect exposure to bitcoin. The top would be in once most major nation states hold it on their books. The top for individuals willing to dabble in BTC might already be in though.

If we're gonna get a relief rally it could be from here. BTC might go up before it drops below 20K. That's what I'm hoping for anyway.

[Theoak*]

I don't think we're at the top of the S curve. The top would mean 80 to 90% of the population would have some kind of  direct or indirect exposure to bitcoin. The top would be in once most major nation states hold it on their books. The top for individuals willing to dabble in BTC might already be in though.

If we're gonna get a relief rally it could be from here. BTC might go up before it drops below 20K. That's what I'm hoping for anyway.

I think he means for this 4 year cycle, mini S curve.

[Thin Lizzy]

The break did fail. Chart looks weak. I don’t see the $250 a barrel happening.

Strong trending markets typically have a correction that is very quick as to not give traders a chance to get in right. Oil corrected then churned for a while before making another top.

If I had to bet, I’d say this double top breakout fails.

[a_pupil]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

[obsidian]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

Good point. Everything is down. Meanwhile cost of living went up sky high. I will have some cash ready to deploy before the end of the year. Though I want to keep some aside for an emergency in case shit gets worse or future projects are cancelled. In a perfect world I would have sold at the top and used that cash now. But that's easy to say in hindsight. It is very difficult to time the market.

[Thin Lizzy]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

Perfectly legit to shit on Bitcoin. It’s currently an underperforming asset class:

[Mayday]

I think he means for this 4 year cycle, mini S curve.

Correct, cheers.

For 2020-2021 we saw the largest increase in the money supply pretty much in our lifetime…… and Bitcoin hit 65k.

We have not seen any major shift away from other asset classes to suggest that BTC is the only option which was the main narrative. Property has gone bananas. Sharemarket has gone bananas. Used cars went up. Collectibles went up. This is the same outcome as previous monetary inflation periods therefore we have no change to the mix.

There is also my opinion that belief of value is first then supply/demand drives price action meaning the adoption curve doesn’t predict price, it merely predicts participants. It’s an ironic example of the internet that people show for this because the internet got more and more expensive….. then mass adoption hit and it got cheaper and cheaper. Being a store of value isn’t exactly holding up right now as all models have blown to pieces to the downside.

I have an issue with the market structure for Bitcoin success. We are at lows right now and BTC dominance is in the 44s. If alts are supposed to die off then how does that happen if 95% of them are still humming along? That’s the true inconvenient question because if we start afresh then BtC is at 45% and declines in dominance to 2024-25 somewhere under 20%.

That’s my read on it.

[Mayday]

FWIW I also doubled my HEX position last night @ 0.031.

Currently it’s the only one that has a good drop under its ATH.

[Flexacon]

There is also my opinion that belief of value is first then supply/demand drives price action meaning the adoption curve doesn’t predict price, it merely predicts participants. It’s an ironic example of the internet that people show for this because the internet got more and more expensive….. then mass adoption hit and it got cheaper and cheaper. Being a store of value isn’t exactly holding up right now as all models have blown to pieces to the downside.

I have an issue with the market structure for Bitcoin success. We are at lows right now and BTC dominance is in the 44s. If alts are supposed to die off then how does that happen if 95% of them are still humming along? That’s the true inconvenient question because if we start afresh then BtC is at 45% and declines in dominance to 2024-25 somewhere under 20%.

That’s my read on it.

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

[sync pulse]

Bitcoin is only worth anything if there are miners operating computer complexes...If there are no miners anywhere...Then Bitcoin would be worthless?

Its rather like comparing a movie on DVD and a streaming service....If the online service stop carrying that movie and you don't have the DVD...

[Theoak*]

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

I agree with this, though as I see it everything these altcoins can do Btc can also do on layers 2 ,3,4 without base layer centralisation. I'm predicting Btc as more applications are built on the ntc network over the next  10years then it should capture 60-70% dominance.

[Mayday]

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

Something can be scarce and worthless. Hence my argument has been belief in value first and then supply/demand dictates price action. I’ll say it again, on chain proves me correct yet nobody is actually connecting the dots. Scarcity does not equal price unless belief is there…..

19.2k now and less coins on exchanges so it’s even more scarce yet price is plummeting because belief left the building.

.

[Theoak*]

Something can be scarce and worthless. Hence my argument has been belief in value first and then supply/demand dictates price action. I’ll say it again, on chain proves me correct yet nobody is actually connecting the dots. Scarcity does not equal price unless belief is there…..

19.2k now and less coins on exchanges so it’s even more scarce yet price is plummeting because belief left the building.

.

Actually thinking  your 96k 2025 prediction might to be spot on. If we did dip below previous bull cycles ATH then I would of had 150k+ on the cards.

[FitnessFrenzy]

BTC $ 18,979.28

[Mayday]

Actually thinking  your 96k 2025 prediction might to be too conservative afterall. If we did dip below previous bull cycles ATH then I would of had 150k+ on the cards.

18.8k now and you are bullish?

99.99% of price predictions failed to the upside. Every model broke.

99.99% of price predictions failed so far to the downside and we entered new territory.

The structure has changed. We got more adoption along with the most inflationary period in our lifetime and we only 3x. Imagine if we got 3% money supply expansion instead 👀 nobody wants to consider that.

Less coins on exchanges, more adoption and we are now below the previous ATH yet scarcity…….

I like all of you so I apologise if I come across rude or condescending. It’s an act I play here ok.

[Griffith]

18.8k now and you are bullish?

99.99% of price predictions failed to the upside. Every model broke.

99.99% of price predictions failed so far to the downside and we entered new territory.

The structure has changed. We got more adoption along with the most inflationary period in our lifetime and we only 3x. Imagine if we got 3% money supply expansion instead 👀 nobody wants to consider that.

Less coins on exchanges, more adoption and we are now below the previous ATH yet scarcity…….

I like all of you so I apologise if I come across rude or condescending. It’s an act I play here ok.

You're no longer bullish long-term?

[Theoak*]

18.8k now and you are bullish?

99.99% of price predictions failed to the upside. Every model broke.

99.99% of price predictions failed so far to the downside and we entered new territory.

The structure has changed. We got more adoption along with the most inflationary period in our lifetime and we only 3x. Imagine if we got 3% money supply expansion instead 👀 nobody wants to consider that.

Less coins on exchanges, more adoption and we are now below the previous ATH yet scarcity…….

I like all of you so I apologise if I come across rude or condescending. It’s an act I play here ok.

Sorry edited my post, meant 96k on the money next  ATH. Seems the leverage is getting sucked out.

[Mayday]

You're no longer bullish long-term?

The Bitcoin structure changed. Top of S-curve now.

2011 to 2014 —> 38x
2014 to 2017 —> 19x
2017 to 2021 —> 3.5x

We just had THE most inflationary period in our lifetime and got 3.5x. Next top is 96k.

I’m following my own opinion for 8mths and things happening according to my strategy.

Sorry edited my post, meant 96k on the money next  ATH. Seems the leverage is getting sucked out.

Ok cool. I’m playing my strategy on 96k regardless of whatever anyone says.

[Griffith]

The Bitcoin structure changed. Top of S-curve now.

2011 to 2014 —> 38x
2014 to 2017 —> 19x
2017 to 2021 —> 3.5x

We just had THE most inflationary period in our lifetime and got 3.5x. Next top is 96k.

I’m following my own opinion for 8mths and things happening according to my strategy.

Where do you see ETH at the next top if BTC at 96k?

And what is your time-frame?

[Mayday]

Where do you see ETH at the next top if BTC at 96k?

And what is your time-frame?

My thread has more details in it with strategy and why.

Peak is either 2024 or maybe 2025. I don’t know yet.

ETH 6.5k.

[El Diablo Blanco]

The scam continues.

[a_pupil]

I hope you geniuses in here give some guidance over the next few months so some of us commoners can join the dubai, India millionaires club 

What price point are you guys looking for to start buying?

[Thin Lizzy]

The scam continues.

You still have goofs like this spewing absurdities on Twitter. Nobody’s “Long Term Thesis” included a drop of this magnitude.



Will Clemente
@WClementeIII
If your long term Bitcoin investment thesis changes because of the price, you never understood Bitcoin

[OneMoreRep]

I don't think the carnage is done.

Bitcoin broke a critical support at $19K. If I had to guess, I'd say it's going down to about $10-$12K. I hope I am wrong on this, but the greater economy likely supports my thesis. Still, even at the price of $10K, I am not too sure I would jump at it, just not enough ROI at these prices. I want greater than 10x.

Ethereum is currently at around $939. I could see it go down to as low to as the $400 range. If it does, I'll probably scoop up about $4-5,000. Then again, I would also (depending on how low they go) through about another $2-$4,000 on Altcoins.

Hard to say how low things will go, but if Bitcoin hits $10-12K, the market will follow. If Ethereum hits around $400, I will go in on $ETH and also spread some money across Altcoins that show promise towards utility.

I'm an ultra-safe investor, not trader, so don't expect fireworks from me.

"1"