Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Thin Lizzy]

I suspect Mayday will be right and Coinbase will eventually limit or stop withdrawals. It has tanked harder than Bitcoin itself.

[Thin Lizzy]

When you start hearing very dramatic price rise predictions, it typically means the party is almost over. When Bitcoin was at 60k, there was talk of 250k.

You’re hearing the same about Oil, now.


‘Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months’: A top hedge-fund manager says crude oil prices could hit $250 this year – Fortune

https://fortune.com/2022/03/24/oil-prices-rise-250-2022-pierre-andurand/

[Theoak*]

A lot of non degens would prefer leverage wasn't allowed. Leverage and the wild swings in price causes fomo and fear on the demand side. Scarcity plus constant demand without leverage would see price go up more linearly and then plateau. Great if you got in early, but if you're hoping for another cycle you don't want this.

This. Greed, gambling, fear are all characteristics of human nature and its entrenched in every market. Ask yourself, will these humans characteristics  embedded in our DNA since our beginnings  all of a sudden shut off and vanish?

Leverage and scarcity = parabolic rise = temporary euphoria.  Eventually it unwinds and capitulates, only to repeat its process.

"This time is different " is a narrative I've parroted and its been wrong. No its not, same market, same human characteristics.

[Theoak*]

18.8k now and you are bullish?

 

I've been bullish since $200, term used back then was hopeful. I'm not a trader, so bullish or bearish really doesn't effect me.

[Mayday]

I get your example, but it doesn't include leverage buying.

Let's say there is a steady conveyor belt of good banana harvests. Bananas are cheap and I buy x100 leverage and a bunch of other people did the same. There is constant demand for bananas, but price remains the same as supply meets demand. I'm not making any money.

Some fungus spreads and starts slowly killing banana plants, so supply is steadily reduced. Demand remains, so price increases. Myself and others cash some leverage gains in and buy with leverage again, but bigger. Price shoots up, banana addicts still keep buying at the inflated prices, supply further decreases, more leverage, price goes parabolic. It comes crashing down when banana addicts start feeling nauseous and stop buying bananas. Leverage winners cash out, price drops and eventually degens who messed up on leverage go broke and it all unwinds. Bananas are now cheap, scarce and there isn't much appetite for them.

Without leverage in this example banana prices go up lets says 10% every harvest due to ever increasing scarcity, until a new equilibrium between demand and supply is reached.

Without demand, leverage and scarcity you wouldn't get this parabolic type of price action. Without demand there is no price action, without leverage and scarcity there are no parabolic bullruns or capitulations.

A lot of non degens would prefer leverage wasn't allowed. Leverage and the wild swings in price causes fomo and fear on the demand side. Scarcity plus constant demand without leverage would see price go up more linearly and then plateau. Great if you got in early, but if you're hoping for another cycle you don't want this.

Less coins now therefore it’s more scarce yet price is -70%.

I can’t word it any other way as I’m redarded. Ponder this and if you get it, accept it and then you can move more freely in your thinking. I’m not trying to be rude, I can’t explain this very well at all and I know in me trying I’ll do a piss poor job and look like an idiot.

[Mayday]

When you start hearing very dramatic price rise predictions, it typically means the party is almost over. When Bitcoin was at 60k, there was talk of 250k.

You’re hearing the same about Oil, now.


‘Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months’: A top hedge-fund manager says crude oil prices could hit $250 this year – Fortune

https://fortune.com/2022/03/24/oil-prices-rise-250-2022-pierre-andurand/

Coinbase have a 5,000 BTC loan which they went long and are near liquidation price. Crazy.


Looks like that double top on oil was playing out, not quite a double top but close. This is a very good sign for me. Things are all pointing towards Q2 recession which means CPI will be under control by Q4 and we go agains on the next inflationary wave (in my strategy).

The CPI will be a magical fix. We will see the % drop but prices will be sticky and everyone will be confused. Q4 2021 CPi was already 7% meaning our CPI begins getting compared to historic numbers that were already topping out and therefore drops towards the 2%-3% target.

 This CPI one is pretty much pure evil on how to fuck with metrics and hide it from people.

[Mayday]

For my American friends, Asia already retested and was rejected. My current feed, people are joyful, happy, all tweeting messages about how we are so early and the space needs to mature.

We Can buy BTC from Grayscale for 12k right now.

my next line was at that mark So let’s see if Wall St begin knocking on Grayscale’s door to buy. If they aren’t interested at 12k you need to ask yourself, why are you buying.

[epic is back]

18.8k now and you are bullish?

99.99% of price predictions failed to the upside. Every model broke.

99.99% of price predictions failed so far to the downside and we entered new territory.

The structure has changed. We got more adoption along with the most inflationary period in our lifetime and we only 3x. Imagine if we got 3% money supply expansion instead 👀 nobody wants to consider that.

Less coins on exchanges, more adoption and we are now below the previous ATH yet scarcity…….

I like all of you so I apologise if I come across rude or condescending. It’s an act I play here ok.

or you could just stop pretending you know whats going on,  and pretending your ahead of the curve like some swami

why dont you just just shut up for a week,

if you can

[Thin Lizzy]

or you could just stop pretending you know whats going on,  and pretending your ahead of the curve like some swami

why dont you just just shut up for a week,

if you can

Price forecasting has a very long history of failure. It doesn’t work. Why? There are too many variables. So, the predictions end up being a guess.



https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/cryptocurrency/articles/could-bitcoin-hit-200000-in-2022/


Cryptocurrency analysts are a quirky, opinionated bunch. An article two weeks ago published on Insider.com -- formerly Business Insider -- cited the following price predictions from investment banking analysts: Goldman Sachs forecast BTC would reach $100,000 in 2022; JPMorgan had it at $148,000 last November but slashed it to $38,000 last month; while Citigroup projected Bitcoin would reach $318,000 by Dec. 2021 and has not revised that target.

[Flexacon]

Less coins now therefore it’s more scarce yet price is -70%.

I can’t word it any other way as I’m redarded. Ponder this and if you get it, accept it and then you can move more freely in your thinking. I’m not trying to be rude, I can’t explain this very well at all and I know in me trying I’ll do a piss poor job and look like an idiot.

I don't see scarcity as a price driver which is the point I think you're trying to get across. So we're on the same page there.

Scarcity in BTC works in kinda the same way liquidity does for a stock. The more illiquid (scarce) a stock the less buy/sell pressure it generally needs to send the price up or down. Similarly a lot of buy/sell pressure causes big jumps up or down in price.

As bitcoin becomes more scarce the easier it gets to potentially send the price up (or down) So yeah a few years of money printing was needed to send BTC to 69k. You probably wont need the same conditions for the price to hit 69K again if bitcoin survives and becomes more scarce.

Scarcity helps creates big price jumps both up and down, so from my point of view the more scarce BTC gets the better. My goal and presumably yours is to try catch the price action in crypto on a parabolic run up and try to get out before it crashes down. Scarcity helps facilitate (not drive) this price action.

[Flexacon]

Everyone is calling for a dump with the next 48 hours. Will be interesting how far they can send it down. Some believe it can go down another 50%, others believe price will just chop as leverage has already unwound.

Also a famous BTC maxi flipped and is now an ETH maxi. Probably just a coincide he is now shilling a web3.0 product.

Looks look web3.0 coins and tokens will be the next cycles ICO/defi/nft.

[French]

I will buy ETH at $88.
Bitcoin cannot be lower than $12,000

[Thin Lizzy]

Once the circus has packed up and moved to another town it’s best to do the same. Even when it does bottom it’ll probably linger around there for an extended period.

[BossBoss]

Where is GIB?

is this a good time to buy, to be a one coiner?

buy now, or wait?
I need advice.

[Thin Lizzy]

Where is GIB?

is this a good time to buy, to be a one coiner?

buy now, or wait?
I need advice.

Anyone who would buy Bitcoin now is just taking a wild guess that this is a bottom that will suddenly reverse and keep going.

The actual evidence is that Bitcoin is in a sustained downward trend that has shown no indication of a bottom.

[obsidian]

I will buy ETH at $88.
Bitcoin cannot be lower than $12,000

You might then wait forever and never have ETH lol!

[obsidian]

Anyone who would buy Bitcoin now is just taking a wild guess that this is a bottom that will suddenly reverse and keep going.

The actual evidence is that Bitcoin is in a sustained downward trend that has shown no indication of a bottom.

Everyone is calling for the crypto prices to tank after today's news and yet it actually went up a little. We'll see what happens. A lot of weak hands apparently in love with the useless dollar.

[obsidian]

Apparently the dollar is strong - well then why are prices rising if the dollar was so strong? This is all bullshit spin to try and make people feel good about things getting more expensive. It's all right, the dollar is strong so don't mind $10 per gallon of gas!

The dollar is not strong. It is weaker than it has ever been compared to the cost of everything you buy. At some point this will sink in and perhaps then crypto will go up again. If anything crypto should go up along with the cost of everything else. It will happen once salaries start rising. And it will. Salaries will eventually go up to keep pace with inflation.

[obsidian]

Where is GIB?

is this a good time to buy, to be a one coiner?

buy now, or wait?
I need advice.

Best approach is to DCA. Because you never know when's the bottom or top.

[Flexacon]

I will buy ETH at $88.
Bitcoin cannot be lower than $12,000

If ETH hits $88 then it's probably dead.

[obsidian]

So far prices are ok. Was the bad news baked in already? Feels like that.

[FitnessFrenzy]

[Slapper]

Folks, don't forget that hundreds of thousands of coins from the Mt Gox heist will be distributed to investors in early August.

Although I don't think it's going to be catastrophic to the price, you can rest assured a lot of those coins are going to hit the market immediately.

GBTC used to undergo similar unlocking events and they ALWAYS resulted in price dumps.

[El Diablo Blanco]

Folks, don't forget that hundreds of thousands of coins from the Mt Gox heist will be distributed to investors in early August.

Although I don't think it's going to be catastrophic to the price, you can rest assured a lot of those coins are going to hit the market immediately.

GBTC used to undergo similar unlocking events and they ALWAYS resulted in price dumps.

I didn’t know they recovered the coins. Why wouldn’t they go back to the original owners?

[Thin Lizzy]

I don’t see how you could know how much of that is already priced in.

That’s why I use the trend as my first filter.

It cuts through all the bullshit. I don’t give a shit how compelling the story, if the trend is clearly down, I don’t bite.