Trump will Destroy Hillary in a General Election

[polychronopolous]

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate — IBD/TIPP Poll

Was Most Accurate Poll in 2012



After more than a week of blistering attacks from Democrats, celebrities and the press, Donald Trump has managed to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton by a 1.3 percentage point margin — 41.3% to 40% — in a four-way matchup, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll released today.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 7.6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 5.5%. The results are the first in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Daily updates start Thursday and will continue until the election.


The IBD/TIPP poll previously was monitoring support for the candidates in the 2016 election on a monthly basis. The new results are Trump's best showing in months. The poll also found that in a two-way matchup, Clinton is up by 3 points — 43.6% to 40.6% — which represents a slight gain from September, when Clinton was ahead 44% to 43%.

For daily updates until the election and full details, including demographic breakdowns of results, follow the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll.

"From the results, it looks as if Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are drawing more support away from Clinton than Trump," said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the poll.

These results are far closer than the Real Clear Politics average, which currently has Clinton up 6.2 points in the four-way poll and by 6.6 points in a two-way matchup.

What's more, Trump scores higher on voter intensity, with 67% of his backers saying they strongly support him, compared with 58% of Clinton supporters who say they strongly back their candidate.

However, half of those polled think Clinton will end up winning the election, compared with 20% who say Trump will.

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been cited as the most accurate in predicting actual election results in the past three presidential elections.

In the four-way matchup, the poll shows some noteworthy gaps.

By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump's lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%.

Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton's support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.

Clinton does better among college educated — 45% to 36% — while Trump outperforms Clinton among those with only a high school education — 58% to 27%.

Methodology:

For the results released today, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll from Oct. 13 through Oct. 18, 2016.

A total of 872 Americans age 18 or older participated in the nationwide survey. Of the 872 respondents, 825 were registered voters and 782 were likely voters.

The story is based on the subsample of likely voters. The margin of error for the likely voters sample is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.

[AbrahamG]

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate — IBD/TIPP Poll

Was Most Accurate Poll in 2012



After more than a week of blistering attacks from Democrats, celebrities and the press, Donald Trump has managed to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton by a 1.3 percentage point margin — 41.3% to 40% — in a four-way matchup, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll released today.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 7.6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 5.5%. The results are the first in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Daily updates start Thursday and will continue until the election.


The IBD/TIPP poll previously was monitoring support for the candidates in the 2016 election on a monthly basis. The new results are Trump's best showing in months. The poll also found that in a two-way matchup, Clinton is up by 3 points — 43.6% to 40.6% — which represents a slight gain from September, when Clinton was ahead 44% to 43%.

For daily updates until the election and full details, including demographic breakdowns of results, follow the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll.

"From the results, it looks as if Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are drawing more support away from Clinton than Trump," said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the poll.

These results are far closer than the Real Clear Politics average, which currently has Clinton up 6.2 points in the four-way poll and by 6.6 points in a two-way matchup.

What's more, Trump scores higher on voter intensity, with 67% of his backers saying they strongly support him, compared with 58% of Clinton supporters who say they strongly back their candidate.

However, half of those polled think Clinton will end up winning the election, compared with 20% who say Trump will.

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been cited as the most accurate in predicting actual election results in the past three presidential elections.

In the four-way matchup, the poll shows some noteworthy gaps.

By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump's lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%.

Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton's support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.

Clinton does better among college educated — 45% to 36% — while Trump outperforms Clinton among those with only a high school education — 58% to 27%.

Methodology:

For the results released today, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll from Oct. 13 through Oct. 18, 2016.

A total of 872 Americans age 18 or older participated in the nationwide survey. Of the 872 respondents, 825 were registered voters and 782 were likely voters.

The story is based on the subsample of likely voters. The margin of error for the likely voters sample is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.

Whatever you need to hang your hat on.

[George Whorewell]

Whatever you need to hang your hat on.

OOGA BOOGA

[The Ugly]

Presidency is obviously hers, only thing he'll destroy is the GOP.

Which is good. Fuck every piece of shit R who supported this unfit maggot.

[Yamcha]

Neither candidate blew anyone away last night.

Yet, Trump's tone, posture, and temperament were improved last night. Hillary ended up screeching quite a bit. Her energy faded quickly after the first hour; seemed to get drowsy/irritable. Her eyes kept drifting downward to her podium, I swear to god she was reading something.

[polychronopolous]

L.A. Times Tracking Poll: Donald Trump Leading Hillary Clinton Again

Donald Trump has gained on Hillary Clinton during the past week, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, solidifying support among core Republican groups as well as political independents.

Roughly 6 in 10 still expect Clinton to prevail, while the poll finds shrinking concerns about the accuracy of the vote count and voter fraud in the election.

Clinton holds a slight 48-44 percent edge over Trump among likely voters, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent in the survey completed Sunday through Wednesday. Clinton held a six-point edge in the previous wave and a 12-point edge in the first wave of the tracking poll by ABC News Sunday (50 percent Clinton vs. 38 percent Trump). In a two-candidate contest, Clinton holds a five-point edge over Trump, 50 to 45 percent.

Trump’s growth in support from 38 percent to 44 percent is fueled by shored-up support among Republican-leaning voting groups as well as a significant boost among political independents. Trump has made up ground among whites, particularly those without college degrees and women. Trump now leads by a 30 percentage point margin among white voters without college degrees, up from 20 points from this weekend. White women now tilt toward Trump by 48 to 43 percent after leaning 49 to 43 percent in Clinton’s favor before.

Trump saw his biggest gains among political independents, favoring Trump by a 12-point margin in the latest tracking poll, 49 to 37 percent, after giving Clinton a narrow edge in late last week. Neither candidate has maintained a consistent lead among independent likely voters in Post-ABC polling this fall.


Other surveys this week paint a mixed picture about how much the race has shifted. The Huffington Post’s national average of polls finds Clinton with a seven-point advantage over Trump, hardly changed in recent weeks. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which takes into account state-level surveys, finds only a slight dip in Clinton’s expected popular vote based on recent surveys.

[polychronopolous]

LA Times Poll: Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton by 2.4 Points



Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 2.4 points in the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll.
The New Yorker tops the former secretary of state, 46.2 percent to 43.8 percent.

The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll regularly surveys 3,000 voters.

The data is updated based on poll responses from the previous week, so the results may lag in responding to major events in the campaign.

[polychronopolous]

ABC Poll: Clinton and Trump Even; Turnout Critical



A slim point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results, cementing Trump's resurgence in the past week and marking the potentially critical role of turnout in the election’s outcome.

The race stands at 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, in the latest results, so tight that the draw by third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein could matter. Clinton, +1 vs. Trump in a four-way trial heat, is +3 head-to-head –- not a significant difference, but suggestive.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference.

Those who say the issue makes them less apt to back Clinton overwhelmingly back Trump in the first place. But what's key in a close contest is whether the disclosure gives Trump supporters further motivation to turn out for him –- and whether it demotivates reluctant Clinton backers.

In other results of the survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates:

• Regardless of the closeness of current preferences and plans to participate, 60 percent of likely voters still expect Clinton to win. This, too, may be a risk to her, potentially encouraging some Clinton supporters not to bother voting.

• Clinton continues to lead Trump in two key attributes. She is seen as more qualified to serve as president by a substantial 54-36 percent of likely voters, a result that makes the closeness of the race overall particularly remarkable. She's also seen to have a stronger moral character, albeit by a closer 46-38 percent.

• That said, the two are virtually tied, 46-43 percent, on another important measure: who better understands "the problems of people like you"; a similar gauge was important in Barack Obama's defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012. (In pre-tracking ABC/Post results, moreover, Clinton and Trump were tied in trust to handle two main issues -– the economy and terrorism -– as well as immigration.)

The survey also finds a risk of substantial damage to House Speaker Paul Ryan by dint of his decision not to campaign on Trump's behalf: Among likely voters who are Republicans or lean that way, 66 percent disapprove of Ryan on this score. Just 21 percent approve.

[polychronopolous]

Poll: Donald Trump +7 over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, Now at 51 Percent



A new WRAL/SurveyUSA poll shows that Donald Trump is now leading North Carolina by seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton — 51 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent.
That means that Trump has shockingly flipped his numbers in the state in just one month. Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Trump by two points in the same poll – 46 percent to 44 percent.

Trump has now passed the 50 percent threshold, according to the poll, making it unlikely that Clinton will be able to bounce back.

The poll was conducted after the news that the FBI would revisit the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server.

Clinton has campaigned furiously in North Carolina in recent weeks, trying to keep the state from going for Trump in 2016.

The state went for Romney in 2012 but went for Obama in 2008. Both First Lady Michelle Obama and President Barack Obama have campaigned in the state’s more populated areas, urging supporters to back Hillary Clinton.

Clinton and Michelle Obama made headlines after campaigning together in the state last week.

Actress Lena Dunham also campaigned in the state over the weekend for Clinton.

President Obama plans to campaign in the state Wednesday with singer song writer James Taylor.

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Donald Trump +7 over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, Now at 51 Percent



A new WRAL/SurveyUSA poll shows that Donald Trump is now leading North Carolina by seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton — 51 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent.
That means that Trump has shockingly flipped his numbers in the state in just one month. Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Trump by two points in the same poll – 46 percent to 44 percent.

Trump has now passed the 50 percent threshold, according to the poll, making it unlikely that Clinton will be able to bounce back.

The poll was conducted after the news that the FBI would revisit the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server.

Clinton has campaigned furiously in North Carolina in recent weeks, trying to keep the state from going for Trump in 2016.

The state went for Romney in 2012 but went for Obama in 2008. Both First Lady Michelle Obama and President Barack Obama have campaigned in the state’s more populated areas, urging supporters to back Hillary Clinton.

Clinton and Michelle Obama made headlines after campaigning together in the state last week.

Actress Lena Dunham also campaigned in the state over the weekend for Clinton.

President Obama plans to campaign in the state Wednesday with singer song writer James Taylor.

Wow.  If he wins NC and FLA, he could very well win this thing. 

[Howard]

Presidency is obviously hers, only thing he'll destroy is the GOP.

Which is good. Fuck every piece of shit R who supported this unfit maggot.

The GOP should have backed one of several other quality candidates for their nominee.
They didn't and Trump  won the nod, fair and square.

I don't think he'll win, and agree that he's setting the party back .

Nov 8 will tell the truth, one way or the other.

[Yamcha]

The GOP should have backed one of several other quality candidates for their nominee.

They did, but the people just didn't get the memo.

[polychronopolous]

Whatever you need to hang your hat on.

Hang my hat on being the Getbig Political Board Poster of The Year?

Gladly.  

Called this one from a year out and was more accurate than 90% of the so called political pundit geniuses out there.

God damn I'm good!

[Dos Equis]

Hang my hat on being the Getbig Political Board Poster of The Year?

Gladly.  

Called this one from a year out and was more accurate than 90% of the so called political pundit geniuses out there.

God damn I'm good!

Yes you definitely nailed it.

[Thin Lizzy]

Hang my hat on being the Getbig Political Board Poster of The Year?

Gladly.  

Called this one from a year out and was more accurate than 90% of the so called political pundit geniuses out there.

God damn I'm good!

Definitely impressive. I always felt he had a good chance but I didn't get really confident until the last month.

[Al Doggity]

Hang my hat on being the Getbig Political Board Poster of The Year?

Gladly.  

Called this one from a year out and was more accurate than 90% of the so called political pundit geniuses out there.

God damn I'm good!

I have to say that, in retrospect, that is one seriously impressive opening post. It was a lot of spot-on detail. 


This is a serious question, and even though people around here have a tendency to get irrationally offended by my posts, it isn't meant to offend. Would you say that you follow a lot of alt-right media?

[mazrim]

I have to say that, in retrospect, that is one seriously impressive opening post. It was a lot of spot-on detail. 


This is a serious question, and even though people around here have a tendency to get irrationally offended by my posts, it isn't meant to offend. Would you say that you follow a lot of alt-right media?

Being annoyed by stupidity is different then being "offended".

[Thin Lizzy]

Being annoyed by stupidity is different then being "offended".

Libs are forever getting "offended" by everything. So, they think the rest of us do the same.

The current tactic of the Left is to label the Alt-Right as a racist, nationalist movement, when, as Milo put it beautifully, it's about values and ideals.

[polychronopolous]

I have to say that, in retrospect, that is one seriously impressive opening post. It was a lot of spot-on detail.  


This is a serious question, and even though people around here have a tendency to get irrationally offended by my posts, it isn't meant to offend. Would you say that you follow a lot of alt-right media?

I settled with the below electoral map graph as the one that most closely resembled my prediction. Trump flipped Pennysylvania that had not been done since the 1980's and effectively won the race at that point. The race could have been called MUCH earlier once Florida was taken and if the Pennsylvania votes had been counted quicker. Not officially called over but for all practical purposes it would have been.

Pennsylvania has been a fools gold proposition over the past couple decades for republican candidates but with a low black turnout and a strong blue collar union turnout that hasn't been seen in years he could potentially flip it and if he does the race is most likely over at that point.

[polychronopolous]

I followed Bill Still throughout the past couple months of the election and he was another who had very convincing arguments predicting a decisive Trump victory.

He probably had the most accurate map out of everyone. Take a look @6:03 of the link. Just outstanding.

[Soul Crusher]

I settled with the below electoral map graph as the one that most closely resembled my prediction. Trump flipped Pennysylvania that had not been done since the 1980's and effectively won the race at that point. The race could have been called MUCH earlier once Florida was taken and if the Pennsylvania votes had been counted quicker. Not officially called over but for all practical purposes it would have been.

Was clearly not called to deny trump the appearance of a victory so early.

[polychronopolous]

Was clearly not called to deny trump the appearance of a victory so early.

My suspicion is Hillary knew very early the race was over and began to drink heavily.

Trump was ahead in Virginia. Running away with Ohio. Pennsylvania democrat turnout in the eastern urban areas was pathetic. Florida was almost certainly going Trump's way once the panhandle area polls began to close.

She was likely 3 sheets to the wind and throwing around lamps at junior interns before the central states even began to be counted.

[mazrim]

Libs are forever getting "offended" by everything. So, they think the rest of us do the same.

The current tactic of the Left is to label the Alt-Right as a racist, nationalist movement, when, as Milo put it beautifully, it's about values and ideals.

And they continue with the same narrative even though a large amount of people are sick of it. No original thought.
Bannon is a racist, Sessions is a racist, Flynn is a racist, etc

[polychronopolous]

And they continue with the same narrative even though a large amount of people are sick of it. No original thought.
Bannon is a racist, Sessions is a racist, Flynn is a racist, etc

What is going to be interesting will be once the Republicans start putting up Latino, Black and Female Presidential candidates. And they most certainly will, you are already beginning to see the reserve bench starting to form.

They are basically fucked at that point.

[Thin Lizzy]

What is going to be interesting will be once the Republicans start putting up Latino, Black and Female Presidential candidates. And they most certainly will, you are already beginning to see the reserve bench starting to form.

They are basically fucked at that point.

They never learn. They'll say the Latino is naive, the Black is an Uncle Tom and the woman is dumb.