Brokered Convention

[Las Vegas]

They could never do it to me.

Please tell me that's a typo.

[Dos Equis]

Please tell me that's a typo.

Not a typo. 

[Las Vegas]

Not a typo. 

The reasoning behind a move by the GOP, could be attributed to a fear that Hillary would beat him.  Is that it, or is it something else?

[Dos Equis]

The reasoning behind a move by the GOP, could be attributed to a fear that Hillary would beat him.  Is that it, or is it something else?

That's only part of it.  There is also the fact that:

1. He's not a conservative.

2.  He's not even a Republican.

3.  He is everything Mitt Romney just described in his press conference.

4.  The overwhelming majority of the GOP does not support him.

5.  He could destroy the GOP (including causing loss of the House and/or Senate) and damage the country if he is elected. 

[Las Vegas]

That's only part of it.  There is also the fact that:

1. He's not a conservative.

2.  He's not even a Republican.

3.  He is everything Mitt Romney just described in his press conference.

4.  The overwhelming majority of the GOP does not support him.

5.  He could destroy the GOP (including causing loss of the House and/or Senate) and damage the country if he is elected.  

If it appeared Carson had built the same approximate numbers as Trump: would you be open to hearing an argument as to why certain people in the GOP would like to nix that choice in favor of someone else?

[Dos Equis]

If it appeared Carson built the same approximate numbers as Trump: would you be open to hearing an argument as to why certain people in the GOP would like to nix that choice in favor of someone else?

What does Carson have to do with this?  Carson doesn't have the same numbers as Trump, isn't anywhere close to the charlatan Trump is, and isn't even running anymore.  

[Las Vegas]

What does Carson have to do with this?  Carson doesn't have the same numbers as Trump, isn't anywhere close to the charlatan Trump is, and isn't even running anymore.  

Carson has something to do with this, because you've expressed support for him.  If you can back up your claim that "they could never" do it to you, it should be easy to explain.

[Dos Equis]

Carson has something to do with this, because you've expressed support for him.  If you can back up your claim that "they could never" do it to you, it should be easy to explain.

You are confused.  I haven't supported anyone for president.  I like Carson, just as I like Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Webb.  And my claim that they could never do it to me is a fact:  I am never going to run for office or a be presidential candidate, so it's impossible for them to do it to me. 

[Las Vegas]

You are confused.  I haven't supported anyone for president.  I like Carson, just as I like Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Webb.  And my claim that they could never do it to me is a fact:  I am never going to run for office or a be presidential candidate, so it's impossible for them to do it to me. 

Oh, so that's what you meant.

 

[Dos Equis]

Oh, so that's what you meant.

 

I say what I mean and mean what I say.   

[240 is Back]

As long as they don't do it to you, you mean.

As long as he AGREES with the person being targeted, then he's okay with the will of the people being overridden by party elites.

If Ron Paul tried that, he'd be throwing Skittles and screaming his little lungs out.

[absfabs]

A brokered convention occurs when none of the presidential candidates enters their party’s national convention having won enough delegates during the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination.


TRUMP IS WAY AHEAD THO BRO!!

[Dos Equis]

Chuck Todd: Brokered Convention 'More Likely Than Not'

Image: Chuck Todd: Brokered Convention 'More Likely Than Not'  (AP)
By Sandy Fitzgerald     
Friday, 04 Mar 2016

It's "more likely than not" that there will be a brokered Republican convention this summer, NBC's Chuck Todd said Friday, considering the current numbers in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, and Ted Cruz's campaign is the best-prepared should that happen.

"You start looking at these numbers, it's such a precarious [situation]," Todd said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program. "Look, there is a good path for [Donald] Trump if he wins both Florida and Ohio, but I don't see how he wins both."

Further, he said he thinks it's more likely that Trump will enter the convention with fewer than the 1,257 delegates he will need to secure the GOP nomination, and Cruz is best positioned to pick up debates should the convention end up being brokered, as his campaign is "arguably the best-run campaign tactically."

"They know how to get delegates," he said. "They are more prepared for a convention fight than any of the other campaigns because of the way they know how to pick off delegates and it's almost inevitable they end up second in delegates no matter what happens, which will make Cruz a crucial player in some form or another."

Trump is favored in Florida at this time over Sen. Marco Rubio in his own home state, but Todd pointed out to the show's panel that he didn't think "you understand how much money is about to go down there."

And with 11 days left before the Florida and Ohio primaries, there are still ways to slow Trump's march to the convention, said Todd.

"Ted Cruz is going to have a good weekend of delegates," he said. "It's very possible. But the problem is on Tuesday. Donald Trump is likely to win Mississippi and Michigan. Now, Michigan is going to be split."

And Cruz has been resilient, said Todd.

"Look at Super Tuesday, the week before it," he said. "It was all about Rubio versus Trump and quietly Cruz put a solid plan in Texas and boy, did he clean up delegates in Texas in a way that was very impressive."

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Chuck-Todd-Brokered-Convention-More-Likely/2016/03/04/id/717417/#ixzz41ybhpVUx

[Dos Equis]

Delegate math: Rubio, Kasich wins key to stopping Trump
By Tal Kopan and Tom LoBianco, CNN
Mon March 7, 2016 | Video Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)—The magic number in the GOP primary is 848.

That's how many delegates Donald Trump needs to clinch the GOP presidential nomination.

It is also the number of delegates the other three candidates combined need to prevent him from clinching and to force a contested Republican convention.

It is quickly becoming clear that winning the nomination outright is largely out of the reach of any candidate not named Trump. While all are still mathematically viable, the climb is steep.
   
The best chance for any of them seems to be keeping Trump from clinching, creating a contested convention that would open up hope for other candidates.

But first, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich must win their home states to keep the cache of delegates out of Trump's hands. There are 99 winner-take-all delegates up for grabs in Florida and 66 in Ohio on March 15.

Based on CNN's delegate estimate after last weekend's primaries and caucuses, Trump needs to win about 54% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who trails by fewer than 100 delegates, needs to win 60%. Rubio, more than 150 delegates behind Cruz, needs to win about 69%, and Kasich would need to win 77%.

For reference, Trump has won about 44% of the delegates thus far.

"What is possible is that no one has 1,237 delegates," Rubio said on "Fox and Friends" on Friday. "If you look at it now, even Donald Trump is going to have a tough time at this point getting the 1,237 delegates. ... I do not support a backroom deal at the convention, either. ... But I think this will all eventually work out and there will be a consolidation behind someone not named Donald Trump, and I'm telling you, that is going to be me."

Kasich meanwhile is focused on a Rust Belt strategy, where he is looking to drive up his numbers beginning with his home state of Ohio.

Ohio is critical for Kasich, as it is one of the first winner-take-all contests of the cycle. But the Kasich team has focused most of its firepower on Michigan, which votes Tuesday, for now -- spending roughly $850,000 on-air there, between the campaign and its affiliated super PAC, according to CMAG/Kantar Media. That's almost double the $440,000 Trump has spent on-air.

In Florida, as of Friday, Rubio's Conservative Solutions PAC had spent almost $5.3 million on-air in his home state. American Future Fund, which has featured the testimonials of alleged victims of Trump University, is spending close to $2 million there. And the Club for Growth, one of the first conservative groups to blast Trump, is spending a little more than $1 million there.

Trump has bought up close to $1 million on media in Florida, while Our Principles PAC -- the much-touted group packed with Jeb Bush staffers and establishment Republicans -- has bought up a little more than $440,000 on-air in Florida so far.

For his part, Cruz is still pitching himself as a nomination winner outright, highlighting that he is the closest in the delegate count to Trump.

"In my view, a brokered convention ain't going to happen, and if the Washington deal-makers tried to steal the nomination from the people, I think it would be a disaster," Cruz told reporters Friday. "We've got to win this nomination. One-thousand, two-hundred and thirty-seven delegates is what it takes to be the Republican nominee."

Putnam cautions that the math can be misleading, however. He said at this point in 2012, Mitt Romney seemed to be in a similar position to Trump, with an uphill climb to the magic number of delegates. But, he added, candidates drop out and the game rapidly changes.

Of course, Romney and Trump are different stories.

"This isn't a conventional cycle, but what we tend to see is a war of attrition," Putnam said. "(Traditionally) it's not about getting to a magic number, it's the race ending as a function of the last viable candidate dropping out. But that's where 2016 is different, there's a significant motivation from some within the Republican Party to prevent Trump from getting the nomination."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/delegate-math-rubio-kasich-trump-cruz/index.html

[Las Vegas]

"What is possible is that no one has 1,237 delegates," Rubio said on "Fox and Friends" on Friday. "If you look at it now, even Donald Trump is going to have a tough time at this point getting the 1,237 delegates. ... I do not support a backroom deal at the convention, either. ... But I think this will all eventually work out and there will be a consolidation behind someone not named Donald Trump, and I'm telling you, that is going to be me."

How does he figure that?

[Dos Equis]

How does he figure that?

Here is what he is probably thinking:

1.  If it goes to the floor, the delegates from each state are obligated to vote for the primary/caucus winner in the first round of voting.

2.  If the "winner" of that vote does not get more than 50 percent, then the delegates can vote for whomever they want on subsequent votes.

3.  Trump will likely not get more than 50 percent. 

4.  Because Rubio is the "establishment" favorite, he is the likely recipient of most of the majority after the first round of voting. 

This all assumes nobody gets to 1237 before the convention. 

[Dos Equis]

Was talking to someone much smarter than me about this stuff, and he said something like 100 of the delegates are not bound, so they can vote for whomever they want in round 1. 

[Dos Equis]

A more detailed, better explanation:

Brokered Convention Likely Means Trump Goes Third Party
by Jon Fleischman
7 Mar 2016
 
If you are Donald J. Trump, you are not very excited about the idea of a “brokered convention.” Aside from falling short of the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination for president outright, the way delegates are chosen, and the nomination process itself, are not ideal for someone running an outsider assault on the party.

A brokered convention is actually less far-fetched after the impressive surge lately by Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) over the past week. So it is worth sharing some basic insights on how such an event would be politically structured, so that you can make your own political calculations about what might happen at such an event – which would be an epic, political maelstrom.

On the first ballot at the convention, just over 85% of the 2,472 delegates will be bound to vote for the candidate to whom they are individually pledged. Some delegates are pledged for more than one ballot, but not most. Just under 15% of the delegates – 165 of the 168 RNC committee members – are “superdelegates.” Yes, we have them too – though far fewer than the Democrats. Around 7% of the RNC convention floor will be made up of superdelegates – i.e. people who are automatically delegates separate from the election process. The Democrats will have 717 of them – about 15% of their 4,678 total delegate count. In addition, there will be around 180 delegates from a handful of state and territories that send their delegates “unbound” and who go to the convention as free agents.

After that first ballot, most of the delegates will likewise be free to vote for whomever they choose. Now before you start thinking that Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Cruz or Ohio Gov. John Kasich would “control” their delegates, understand that this is likely not the case.

Just over 10% of the states have party rules that provide for candidates to choose their own actual delegates – 259 delegates, to be precise (and 169 of those are from one state, California).

However the vast majority (close to 90%) of the delegates are actually chosen through internal party elections of one sort or another. Some are chosen at conventions, some at caucuses. In some states individuals run for delegate, by name, on the ballot. These folks are then “bound” to a candidate, as I outlined above.

Presumably candidate-chosen delegates will have a much higher likelihood of being loyal to their candidate and also more likely to let their candidate “broker” or “throw” their votes as part of a negotiated deal. But again, that’s a small percentage of the total delegate pool.

As you can see from this process, the convention will have a lot of delegates where the actual person who is voting was able to win election to the convention through their local party process. Maybe they will be a supporter of the candidate to whom they are pledged after they are no longer bound, but maybe not. Either way, they are likely to be much more independent, and not “throwable” by candidate A to candidate B.

So suddenly you have to wonder: who will be the influencers at a brokered convention?

And the answer is: it will be a madhouse. The lists of influencers will certainly include the candidates, past and present. But it will also include party luminaries, governors, senators, members of Congress, state legislators, party leaders, interest group leaders, celebrities, media personalities, major donors and more.

And while it might be a bit unseemly to discuss openly, think about what is being brokered behind closed doors. Of course the presidential and vice presidential nominees – but who can say whether discussions will take place about commitments on cabinet secretary picks, Supreme Court nominations, ambassadorships and the thousands of patronage positions in government that are available to a president. Maybe as a delegate you have a son or daughter you want to get into the Naval Academy or West Point?

Lastly, but not to be overlooked, is the ability of party insiders to monkey around with the rules and credentialing of the convention itself. The RNC Rules Committee will meet a week before the convention – as “insider” a group as you get. They make recommendations to the full RNC, who in turn make recommendations to the RNC Convention Rules Committee, made up of two members per delegation, chosen by a vote of each delegation. These rules are then put up for adoption by the full convention. But there is also a Convention Credentials Committee, which actually gets to decide who is on the initial roll of the convention itself, chosen by delegations as well. If it seems confusing, that’s because it is.

Look for outsiders to the party process to have a diminished role. As I said from the outset: Donald Trump will be severely disadvantaged going into this sort of thing, and would undoubtedly be leveraging a potential third-party bid to press his claim to the nomination if it came to that.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/07/brokered-convention-likely-means-trump-goes-third-party/

[polychronopolous]

The GOP denying a delegate leading Trump will be one of the biggest mistakes they ever make.

He will light up Hillary like a Xmas tree on stage and bring in millions of new voters.

[Las Vegas]

If he loses Florida, I hope the establishment troublemakers (and anyone else backing this guy) finally get the message.

Two words: Rubio - Schumer

[240 is Back]

IF IF IF trump wins florida AND Ohio, it's over.

Rubio will drop out, kasich will drop out.  Does anyone think Cruz is getting 51% of the votes in NY or Cali?  

Face it, you makeshift conservatives sat idly and said "i like some of trumps ideas!" for 9 months as if you were pointing out you loved some of hitler's ideas, such as him being a vegetarian, ignoring all of the other bad bad shit.

Now, it's 9 months later, and Trump has birthed chaos upon the nomination process, and you are cupping your mouths in feigned shock and disbelief.   You let this festering lesion grow for almost a year, and now you're shocked a stoned Dr Ben couldn't remove it with parables of Popeyes robberies.

Trump is your fault. 

[Dos Equis]

Still on track for a brokered convention. 

Current delegate count:

Trump - 461
Cruz - 360
Rubio - 154
Kasich - 54
Carson - 8
Bush   - 4
Fiorina - 1
Huckabee - 1
Paul - 1

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/republican

Popular vote results since Super Tuesday:
983,622 = Votes for Trump
1,541,001 = Votes for other candidates

Total:
4,249,489 = Votes for Trump
7,809,337 = Votes for other candidates

[Leatherneck]

It's only still on track of you don't factor in that currently Trump is the front runner in FL, OH, IL and NC on Tuesday. By. Wednesday morning this could all be a foregone conclusion.

[Dos Equis]

It's only still on track of you don't factor in that currently Trump is the front runner in FL, OH, IL and NC on Tuesday. By. Wednesday morning this could all be a foregone conclusion.

Florida, Ohio, and Illinois are a combined 234 delegates (99, 66, and 69).  Winning those three would be huge for Trump, but still will not push him over 1237.  NC has 72 proportional delegates.   

[240 is Back]

Florida, Ohio, and Illinois are a combined 234 delegates (99, 66, and 69).  Winning those three would be huge for Trump, but still will not push him over 1237.  NC has 72 proportional delegates.   

He'll be at 700 out of 1237... with 20 states to go.  And many of them are liberal Cali, NY, etc.   He's doing well and it's in the south where cruz and rubio should be doing well. 

Once trump gets on his "home turf", these votes are going to come much easier.