http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Whoops. And before some foo jumps in to ask, yes it is still inaccurate, Trump's likely up much more and this doesn't show it because of inaccurate weighting of Ds and Independents in the likely voter model, but there is the trend.
All likely voter polls on RCP since midJuly are either Trump winning, like this one, or within the MoE.
Actually, it's probably tilted to the republican... So says the LA times.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.htmlUsing the 0-to-100 scale, however, almost certainly makes the Daybreak poll differ somewhat from other surveys. As with the bounce, any difference that results should shrink as election day gets closer and voters become more certain of their choices.
Finally, some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the last election.
All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.
The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.
The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.
If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in
slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day.
