The Democrat Mid-Term Massacre of 2018 is Going To Be AMAZING!!!

[polychronopolous]

Because some are the better person for the office. Such is the case in HD 37 where I live. Not everything is about what goes on at the White House amusement park. Local political candidates, such as those in your city counsel and county board of commissioners (non-partisan) as well as those in state government probably affect your life more than your federal representatives do.

Here ya go Prime. Just because you are one of my favorites on here. Some Oregon politics. Governor race.

Brown +4 in the RCP Average

Cook Political Report shifts Oregon governor race to 'toss up'




Nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted their prediction for the Oregon gubernatorial race from "lean democrat" to "toss up" Tuesday.

 Although Oregon is a deep-blue state, incumbent Gov. Kate Brown (D) has faced a stern challenge from Rep. Knute Buehler (R).

A poll released Tuesday gave her a 40 to 35 percent lead, with 17 percent of voters remaining undecided.

Cook argues that some of the closeness of this election may have to do with the controversy-riddled tenure of previous Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber, whose resignation led to Brown's ascension to office in early 2015.



Additionally, tax increases passed under her tenure have made the situation difficult for Brown.

"The tax increases that impacted everything from health insurance premiums to gas and vehicle sales may prove to be her Achilles Heel," Jennifer Duffy of Cook explained.

Buehler is considered a moderate on most issues apart from immigration, making her more difficult to "demonize" for Democrats, Duffy also wrote in a post.



Oregon joins Connecticut as the only two Democrat-held governor seats categorized as a 'toss up' by Cook.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/411723-cook-political-shifts-oregon-governor-race-to-toss-up%3famp

[Primemuscle]

Liberals can't seem to stop playing their broken records - just like 3 yr olds with their fingers in their ears going "la la la".

There are at least as many conservatives doing the same.

[polychronopolous]

[Yamcha]

There are at least as many conservatives doing the same.

Hmmm... let me see your tally.

[Primemuscle]

Hmmm... let me see your tally.

Yours is a ridiculous request. The word 'many' is a broad term. It does not require specifics.

[chaos]

Your's is a ridiculous request. The word 'many' is a broad term. It does not require specifics.

Deflection. No proof.

[Yamcha]

Your's is a ridiculous request. The word 'many' is a broad term. It does not require specifics.

"at least as many"

well, the LEAST you could do is back up your claim. should be easy

[Yamcha]

Tolerant

[Agnostic007]

Tolerant

Complete loser. He should learn from Trump and NEVER apologize for being a childish jerk. He has shown he doesn't have the character we want in a politician. He has a conscience and that will hold him back at the federal level. 

[Primemuscle]

Complete loser. He should learn from Trump and NEVER apologize for being a childish jerk. He has shown he doesn't have the character we want in a politician. He has a conscience and that will hold him back at the federal level. 

Oh the irony!   

[Yamcha]

 

[Kwon3]

Your's is a ridiculous request. The word 'many' is a broad term. It does not require specifics.

It's just spelled "yours", smart guy.

[polychronopolous]

'Dilbert' Creator Scott Adams Predicts Historic GOP Turnout For Midterms



The creator of the comic strip Dilbert predicted in a new interview that Republicans will turn out in droves to cast their votes on Election Day next month.

Cartoonist and author Scott Adams, a supporter of President Donald Trump, spoke with Breitbart and said he believes the GOP will have large turnout — although he noted that may not lead to the party retaining control of the House.

Midterm elections day will see "the greatest turnout by Republicans, maybe ever," Adams said.

Adams then went deeper and explained his reasoning.

"My hypothesis is that humans are primed by whatever they've already seen. So if they've seen a pattern, they've already fallen into it," he said. "And one of the patterns Republicans enjoyed in 2016 was having the other side be surprised. And they really enjoyed it — I'm talking about the kind of joy you can talk about over the course of your lifetime.


"And the Republican personality — I realize this is a gross generalization — is that it's not always about the talk, it's about the showing up. Republicans are going to show up. And they're driven by all the things people are talking about, but you cannot underestimate the fun, either. I'll tell you this: if the Republicans pull out the House [win] — I'm still thinking it's unlikely, only because other people say so and I don't know any different — it's because there's a s—load of Republicans who are saying to themselves, 'They're gonna be surprised.'"


Adams endorsed Trump leading up to the 2016 presidential election months after saying he was backing Democrat Hillary Clinton.

https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/887115?section=newsfront&keywords=scott-adams-donaldt-rump-2018-midterms&year=2018&month=10&date=19&id=887115

[polychronopolous]

Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds




GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.


Key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber.

The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in next month's midterm elections.


Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.


In Arizona — where two members of the House, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally, are in a neck-and-neck contest to fill retiring Republican Jeff Flake's Senate seat — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared to 33 percent who had a Democratic affiliation. Twenty-three percent of early voters were not affiliated with either major party, and thus grouped as "other" in NBC News' partisan analysis.

In Florida — where Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is running for re-election in a tight race against Republican Gov. Rick Scott — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 38 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

In Indiana — where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is facing a re-election challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun — 51 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 39 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 10 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

In Montana — where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up for re-election in a state that President Donald Trump won by 21 points — 46 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 29 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 25 percent who were not affiliated with either party.


In Tennessee — where former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen is in a close race with Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn to fill retiring Republican Bob Corker's Senate seat — 63 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 30 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 7 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

On Monday, the first day of early voting in Texas, thousands of people were camped out at an early voting location in Houston hours before it opened, The Houston Chronicle reported.

And in Georgia — where civil rights groups have sued Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor, saying the method his office uses to verify new voter registrations is discriminatory — 52 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 43 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 5 percent who were not affiliated with either party.



Accusations of voter suppression as more than 50,000 Georgia voter registrations pending
On the other hand, in Nevada — where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is up for re-election in a close race against Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen — 45 percent of early voters had a Democratic affiliation, compared with 38 percent who had a Republican affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

[polychronopolous]

Blowout: Heidi Heitkamp now trails by 16 points in North Dakota



Posted: Mon 12:49 PM, Oct 22, 2018  |  Updated: Mon 2:59 PM, Oct 22, 2018
         
In an exclusive poll by KVLY, KFYR and Strategic Research Associates of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 - 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs.

Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him.

“Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media,” said James Henson, PhD, a partner in Strategic Research Associates, LLC, the research firm that conducted the poll for Gray Television. The U.S. Senate voted on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in the period between the two polls.

https://www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/Poll-Cramer-widens-gap-over-Heitkamp-in-senate-race-to-16-points-498224261.html

[Dos Equis]

Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds




GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.


Key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber.

The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in next month's midterm elections.


Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.


In Arizona — where two members of the House, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally, are in a neck-and-neck contest to fill retiring Republican Jeff Flake's Senate seat — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared to 33 percent who had a Democratic affiliation. Twenty-three percent of early voters were not affiliated with either major party, and thus grouped as "other" in NBC News' partisan analysis.

In Florida — where Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is running for re-election in a tight race against Republican Gov. Rick Scott — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 38 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

In Indiana — where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is facing a re-election challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun — 51 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 39 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 10 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

In Montana — where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up for re-election in a state that President Donald Trump won by 21 points — 46 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 29 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 25 percent who were not affiliated with either party.


In Tennessee — where former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen is in a close race with Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn to fill retiring Republican Bob Corker's Senate seat — 63 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 30 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 7 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

On Monday, the first day of early voting in Texas, thousands of people were camped out at an early voting location in Houston hours before it opened, The Houston Chronicle reported.

And in Georgia — where civil rights groups have sued Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor, saying the method his office uses to verify new voter registrations is discriminatory — 52 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 43 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 5 percent who were not affiliated with either party.



Accusations of voter suppression as more than 50,000 Georgia voter registrations pending
On the other hand, in Nevada — where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is up for re-election in a close race against Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen — 45 percent of early voters had a Democratic affiliation, compared with 38 percent who had a Republican affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

Thanks for posting this.  I read an article this morning that focused just on Nevada. 

[Dos Equis]

Blowout: Heidi Heitkamp now trails by 16 points in North Dakota



Posted: Mon 12:49 PM, Oct 22, 2018  |  Updated: Mon 2:59 PM, Oct 22, 2018
         
In an exclusive poll by KVLY, KFYR and Strategic Research Associates of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 - 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs.

Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him.

“Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media,” said James Henson, PhD, a partner in Strategic Research Associates, LLC, the research firm that conducted the poll for Gray Television. The U.S. Senate voted on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in the period between the two polls.

https://www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/Poll-Cramer-widens-gap-over-Heitkamp-in-senate-race-to-16-points-498224261.html

One of my politically savvy friends said the only reason she voted against Kavanaugh was she knew she was going to lose and was trying to position herself for some position with the Democrat party after the election. 

[Agnostic007]

One of my politically savvy friends said the only reason she voted against Kavanaugh was she knew she was going to lose and was trying to position herself for some position with the Democrat party after the election. 

well, that's gospel then. A friend of yours..

[Dos Equis]

well, that's gospel then. A friend of yours..

Yes, my friend, the former head of a political party, who offered his opinion.  Holds a lot more weight than some know nothing internet stranger. 

[Agnostic007]

Yes, my friend, the former head of a political party, who offered his opinion.  Holds a lot more weight than some know nothing internet stranger.  

Dime a dozen on FOX or CNN.... That you aren't embarrassed with that post is odd

[Dos Equis]

Dime a dozen on FOX or CNN.... That you aren't embarrassed with that post is odd

What the heck are you talking about?  I posted an opinion from a friend who happens to be incredibly experienced.  You turned that opinion into "gospel."  Stop being a troll.

[Yamcha]

Looks like the Democrats got Ossof'd again...  




MSNBC reporter Geoff Bennett, for example, is still stuck on the “denial” stage, claiming Monday that the Texas Republican has only a small lead over his Democratic opponent.

"For Ted Cruz, this rally is a thing of political necessity, since polling shows him with the slimmest of leads over Democrat Beto O'Rourke in that Senate race there," the ostensibly straight-news reporter said.


A whole 10 seconds of Googling shows that Cruz has led O’Rourke by significant margins in every major survey conducted this month. In fact, the GOP incumbent currently leads with a seven-point advantage, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average.>

For the anger stage of grief, we turn to the Washington Post’s Amber Phillips, who made the good point earlier this month that pouring more than $55 million into a likely losing campaign may not be the soundest midterm election strategy.

“It's arguably even a giant waste of money in Democrats' uphill battle to retake the Senate,” Phillips writes, adding, “Texas doesn’t even make the top 10 of the Fix’s latest rankings of the most competitive Senate races. Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Bill Nelson (Fla.) and Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen in Tennessee are all on the list," she writes.

She adds, "Some of those candidates, especially Heitkamp, are fighting for their political careers. And their races are crucial to helping Democrats take back the Senate.”  

In terms of the bargaining stage of grief, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver had a pretty good take this weekend.

"So the polls have Cruz up by a fairly solemn margin there, six or seven points on average. We give him about an 80 percent chance of winning," he explained.

But then he added, on a note of hopefulness, “We should say though Texas is a tricky state to poll, Beto would rely on Hispanic voters, young voters, people who newly migrated to Texas. If every eligible voter in Texas turned out, that could be a very close race.” The word “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

For depression, there’s the reliably dour co-host of MSNBC’s "Morning Joe," Mika Brezinski  , who moped this weekend that "Democrats have produced exactly one national star" and that he "could lose by 10 points."  

"It's not impossible that, despite the train wreck that is the Trump presidency," she stated with a glum shake of her head, "Republicans could keep control of the Senate and the House."

Then there’s the acceptance stage. For that, we turn to Vox, which found a way to write off O’Rourke’s likely loss as a victory for the Democratic Party.

“Beto O’Rourke could lead a blue wave in Texas — even if he loses his Senate race," the site that promises to "explain the news" theorized (aka - Losing is Winning).

[Dos Equis]

I love Silver, but this is the same percentage he gave to Hillary's projected victory two years ago (about 86 percent).

Forecasting the race for the House
Updated Oct. 23, 2018
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[polychronopolous]

O'Keefe Scalps Heitkamp

[polychronopolous]

Poll: Former Clinton Foundation Head Slides Behind Republican Salazar in Key Florida House Race






Breitbart News recently identified the district as one of twenty remaining toss-up districts in the midterm elections whose outcomes will determine which party controls the House of Representatives when the 116th Congress convenes in Washington, D.C., this January.


When incumbent Rep. Ilyana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL-27) announced that she was retiring, the 77-year-old Shalala was expected to easily win the seat, but the campaign has not gone well for her so far.


 

“The narrow Democratic primary victory in August by 77-year-old Donna Shalala, the former Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Bill Clinton administration, and the emergence of a rising Republican star as her general election opponent, former Spanish language broadcaster Maria Elvira Salazar, has catapulted the race from “Likely Democratic” to “Toss-up,” as Breitbart News reported earlier this month:

The Sunshine State News reported that Salazar “has been remarkably efficient in using her name strength in Congressional District 27 to her advantage, and has turned this into a competitive race.”

Salazar also speaks both Spanish and English, while Shalala speaks only English, a key disadvantage for her because “the district is heavily Latino, with 57 percent of the registered voters being Hispanic.”

“Salazar also has an edge beyond her name advantage — she can campaign comfortably in the area to most audiences because she is bi-lingual; Shalala is not,” the Sunshine State News noted

Just as Hillary Clinton failed to generate the requisite enthusiasm among Florida voters to win the state’s electoral college votes in the 2016 Presidential election, the enthusiasm gap for Shalala among rank and file Democrats in the 27th Congressional District is palpable.

Shalala served as CEO of the Clinton Foundation from 2015 to 2017.

“After a two-year stint amid a bruising U.S. presidential campaign for the Clintons, Shalala, 76, called it a wrap Tuesday as president and chief executive of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation,” the Miami Herald reported in April 2017.


https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/23/poll-former-clinton-foundation-head-slides-behind-republican-salazar-in-key-florida-house-race/