Author Topic: Trump = Winning  (Read 1225622 times)

Dos Equis

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6150 on: June 04, 2024, 05:39:05 PM »
AI can be occasionally wrong.  Usually about a minor detail.  How is it wrong here?

Judges can bar testimony for various reasons.  Judges have guidelines to follow.  Judges have done this in the past.

I doubt a jury of 12, 4 of which are lawyers were so manipulated that they convicted Trump on unknown charges. Maybe it will come out in more detail in the coming days.

I do agree with you.  The Democrats are straight-up going after him and using whatever means necessary.  But so far, it seems to be within the law, if not Trump should win on appeal.    I only hope that same shit gets done when the Dems turn comes, within the law of course.

I already explained the problem with excluding Bradley Smith's testimony, while allowing in evidence of purported FEC violations by Cohen and Pecker.  Not sure what else to say.  So AI trying to downplay those rulings as just run-of-the-mill decisions is flatly wrong. 

It's also wrong to conclude precisely what the jury found as the underlying crime.  I gave you the links to the statute, the indictment, and the jury verdict.  All you need to do is read them and believe what you see. 

No disrespect intended here, but it's really naïve to believe that jurors cannot make mistakes, or act in a partisan manner, etc.  I gave you two examples of how badly jurors and judges can get it wrong.  Look at Colorado as another example.  And have you heard of jury nullification?  OJ is an example of that. 

It's all right there in front of you.  It is actually as bad as it looks.

loco

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6151 on: June 04, 2024, 06:22:47 PM »

Moontrane

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6152 on: June 04, 2024, 06:25:24 PM »
Is it too late for the state of NC (or wherever) to go after John Edwards for his backer's $1 million that went to his mistress?

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/justice-dept-wont-retry-john-edwards-077398

"However, prosecutors said they amounted to donations to Edwards’s campaign because they were intended to prevent damage to his presidential bid by hiding the extramarital affair from the media."

Primemuscle

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6153 on: June 04, 2024, 07:36:30 PM »
Is it too late for the state of NC (or wherever) to go after John Edwards for his backer's $1 million that went to his mistress?

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/justice-dept-wont-retry-john-edwards-077398

"However, prosecutors said they amounted to donations to Edwards’s campaign because they were intended to prevent damage to his presidential bid by hiding the extramarital affair from the media."

Didn't his affair come out in 2008? The federal statute of limitations is 10 years and less in some cases of fraud. South Carolina's statute is 3 years. And then there is the double jeopardy issue, he was already tried in 2012 and the charges were dismissed.

AbrahamG

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6154 on: June 04, 2024, 07:39:13 PM »
Is it too late for the state of NC (or wherever) to go after John Edwards for his backer's $1 million that went to his mistress?

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/justice-dept-wont-retry-john-edwards-077398

"However, prosecutors said they amounted to donations to Edwards’s campaign because they were intended to prevent damage to his presidential bid by hiding the extramarital affair from the media."

Damn dude.  Let it go. 

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6155 on: June 04, 2024, 09:28:17 PM »
Is it too late for the state of NC (or wherever) to go after John Edwards for his backer's $1 million that went to his mistress?

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/justice-dept-wont-retry-john-edwards-077398

"However, prosecutors said they amounted to donations to Edwards’s campaign because they were intended to prevent damage to his presidential bid by hiding the extramarital affair from the media."

"It's (D)ifferent when we do it!"

Soul Crusher

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6156 on: June 05, 2024, 07:09:35 AM »
Trump is pulling ahead and getting stronger as these nutbags on the left keep doing their thing. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

OzmO

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6157 on: June 05, 2024, 10:15:09 AM »
I already explained the problem with excluding Bradley Smith's testimony, while allowing in evidence of purported FEC violations by Cohen and Pecker.  Not sure what else to say.  So AI trying to downplay those rulings as just run-of-the-mill decisions is flatly wrong. 

You claimed what I posted was all wrong:

Quote
This is all wrong.  Be careful using that AI stuff.   :)

What about what the Judge did or what I posted was wrong exactly?

What he did was within the law and a practice that has, sound reasoning, legal precedent, and guidelines.

I never said they were "run-of-the-mill" decisions.

Quote
It's also wrong to conclude precisely what the jury found as the underlying crime.  I gave you the links to the statute, the indictment, and the jury verdict.  All you need to do is read them and believe what you see.

No disrespect intended here, but it's really naïve to believe that jurors cannot make mistakes, or act in a partisan manner, etc.  I gave you two examples of how badly jurors and judges can get it wrong.  Look at Colorado as another example.  And have you heard of jury nullification?  OJ is an example of that. 

I never said juries are 100% right.  I said Trump was found guilty by all 12 jurors and that's fine by me until something else says otherwise. The percentage of verdicts that are successfully appealed are estimated to be less than 5%, so I will stand with this conclusion for now.

Quote
It's all right there in front of you.  It is actually as bad as it looks.

It's not about what it looks like.  It's about what it is.  Some one asserts that the Judge restricted testimony and therefore the trial wasn't fair.  However the practice of restricting testimony in complex cases does happen and there are guidelines, reasoning, and legal residence for doing it.   So unless there was something specific that Brad Smith could have pointed to that would exonerate Trump of these charges, there is nothing to see (looks like) here. 

Quote
So AI trying to downplay those rulings as just run-of-the-mill decisions is flatly wrong. 

This is not how AI works.  PLatforms like ChatGPT and Claudia are prompt-based, meaning they respond to the prompt given.  Here is an example:

Prompt:  How would I argue that Judge Marchen did show bias by limiting Brad Smith testimony?

Answer:  To argue that Judge Merchan showed bias by limiting Brad Smith's testimony, you can focus on several key points that suggest the judge's decision might have favored the prosecution and hindered Trump's defense:

Impact on Defense Strategy:
By restricting Brad Smith's testimony, Judge Merchan potentially weakened Trump's defense. Smith, as a former Chairman of the Federal Election Commission (FEC), was a key expert who could have provided critical insights into the interpretation of campaign finance laws. His testimony could have challenged the prosecution's narrative that Trump's actions constituted a violation of these laws​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Selective Exclusion of Testimony:
The judge allowed Smith to testify only on general facts about the FEC and campaign finance terminology, barring him from discussing how these laws specifically related to Trump's case. This selective exclusion could be seen as limiting the defense's ability to counter the prosecution's claims effectively, thereby creating an imbalance in the presentation of the case​ (POLITICO)​​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Legal Interpretations Favoring Prosecution:
The restriction prevented Smith from addressing the complexities and nuances of campaign finance law that could have supported Trump's defense. For instance, Smith could have argued that the payments to Stormy Daniels were not made with the intent of influencing an election, a key point in defending against campaign finance violations. By preventing this testimony, the judge might have favored the prosecution's broader interpretation of the law​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Perception of Fairness:
Judicial decisions should ensure the perception of fairness in the courtroom. Limiting a key defense witness's testimony, especially one with extensive expertise like Smith, might be perceived as creating an unfair trial environment. This perception could be amplified by the fact that Smith's expertise was directly relevant to the central issues in the case​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Precedents and Judicial Consistency:
Critics might argue that in similar high-profile cases, expert testimonies have been allowed to provide comprehensive legal interpretations. The decision to restrict Smith's testimony could be viewed as inconsistent with such precedents, suggesting a potential bias in this particular case.

By emphasizing these points, you can argue that Judge Merchan's decision to limit Brad Smith's testimony might have shown bias, as it seemingly constrained the defense's ability to present a full and robust argument against the charges.

Coach is Back!

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6158 on: June 05, 2024, 10:16:35 AM »
.

AbrahamG

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6159 on: June 05, 2024, 10:26:59 AM »
@Coach - any poll more than a point or 2 outside the margin of error for either candidate is laughable and should be dismissed. Trump being up double digits let alone 18 or 19 points isn't even on the margins of being serious.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6160 on: June 05, 2024, 10:59:27 AM »
@Coach - any poll more than a point or 2 outside the margin of error for either candidate is laughable and should be dismissed. Trump being up double digits let alone 18 or 19 points isn't even on the margins of being serious.

Go over to RCP and prepare to cry in your cereal. 

AbrahamG

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6161 on: June 05, 2024, 04:03:23 PM »
Go over to RCP and prepare to cry in your cereal.

I don't eat cereal.  Nor do I care what a poll at RCP says.  If you really think Trump will win by double digits let alone almost 20 points, you are really off the reservation. 

I'll go on record that Biden wins the popular vote.  Again.  I'll predict it falls somewhere between the 3 million Hillary beat Trump by and the 8 million Biden beat Trump by.  I'll freely admit that the electoral college is up for grabs.  If you ask me today, I'll say Trump edges it.  A lot can happen between now and November. 

You really should pace yourself. 

Soul Crusher

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6162 on: June 05, 2024, 04:55:28 PM »
I don't eat cereal.  Nor do I care what a poll at RCP says.  If you really think Trump will win by double digits let alone almost 20 points, you are really off the reservation. 

I'll go on record that Biden wins the popular vote.  Again.  I'll predict it falls somewhere between the 3 million Hillary beat Trump by and the 8 million Biden beat Trump by.  I'll freely admit that the electoral college is up for grabs.  If you ask me today, I'll say Trump edges it.  A lot can happen between now and November. 

You really should pace yourself.


I m doing fine. 


Liberal dolts are not panicked knowing the corpse is gone very soon. 

Dos Equis

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6163 on: June 05, 2024, 05:22:26 PM »
I don't eat cereal.  Nor do I care what a poll at RCP says.  If you really think Trump will win by double digits let alone almost 20 points, you are really off the reservation. 

I'll go on record that Biden wins the popular vote.  Again.  I'll predict it falls somewhere between the 3 million Hillary beat Trump by and the 8 million Biden beat Trump by.  I'll freely admit that the electoral college is up for grabs.  If you ask me today, I'll say Trump edges it.  A lot can happen between now and November. 

You really should pace yourself.

There is no popular vote contest.  In 2016, Hillary's entire popular vote spread came from California.  In 2020, Biden's entire popular vote spread came from California and New York.  Outside of those two states, Trump got more votes than Biden.

I just took a look at the total vote numbers.  Some interesting observations:

1.  Biden received 81,282,501 votes.

2.  Trump received 74,223,975. 

3.  Both numbers were record turnouts.  I think the reason was largely related to the mass numbers of mail-in votes.  I think the numbers for both parties will drop in 2024. 

4.  Just like 2016, the "popular vote" was dramatically impacted by California and New York.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton's entire popular vote spread came from California.  In 2020, Biden got 11,110,639 votes in California and 5,249,886 votes in New York. 

5.  In 2020, Trump got 6,006,518 votes in California and 3,251,987 votes in New York. 

6.  The Biden spread in California was 5,104,121 and in New York was 1,992,899, for a total of 7,097,020.

7.  Biden's total popular vote spread in 2020 was 7,059,526.  In other words, the California and New York vote totals account for all of Biden's popular vote spread. 

8.  If you subtract California and New York from both Biden and Trump, Biden got 64,922,976 votes and Trump got 64,965,470.  In other words, Trump got more popular votes than Biden outside of California and New York. 

I'm pretty sure Trump never set foot in California during the 2020 election. 

Good context for Biden's 81 million votes.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

Dos Equis

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6164 on: June 05, 2024, 05:33:11 PM »
You claimed what I posted was all wrong:

What about what the Judge did or what I posted was wrong exactly?

What he did was within the law and a practice that has, sound reasoning, legal precedent, and guidelines.

I never said they were "run-of-the-mill" decisions.

I never said juries are 100% right.  I said Trump was found guilty by all 12 jurors and that's fine by me until something else says otherwise. The percentage of verdicts that are successfully appealed are estimated to be less than 5%, so I will stand with this conclusion for now.

It's not about what it looks like.  It's about what it is.  Some one asserts that the Judge restricted testimony and therefore the trial wasn't fair.  However the practice of restricting testimony in complex cases does happen and there are guidelines, reasoning, and legal residence for doing it.   So unless there was something specific that Brad Smith could have pointed to that would exonerate Trump of these charges, there is nothing to see (looks like) here. 

This is not how AI works.  PLatforms like ChatGPT and Claudia are prompt-based, meaning they respond to the prompt given.  Here is an example:

Prompt:  How would I argue that Judge Marchen did show bias by limiting Brad Smith testimony?

Answer:  To argue that Judge Merchan showed bias by limiting Brad Smith's testimony, you can focus on several key points that suggest the judge's decision might have favored the prosecution and hindered Trump's defense:

Impact on Defense Strategy:
By restricting Brad Smith's testimony, Judge Merchan potentially weakened Trump's defense. Smith, as a former Chairman of the Federal Election Commission (FEC), was a key expert who could have provided critical insights into the interpretation of campaign finance laws. His testimony could have challenged the prosecution's narrative that Trump's actions constituted a violation of these laws​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Selective Exclusion of Testimony:
The judge allowed Smith to testify only on general facts about the FEC and campaign finance terminology, barring him from discussing how these laws specifically related to Trump's case. This selective exclusion could be seen as limiting the defense's ability to counter the prosecution's claims effectively, thereby creating an imbalance in the presentation of the case​ (POLITICO)​​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Legal Interpretations Favoring Prosecution:
The restriction prevented Smith from addressing the complexities and nuances of campaign finance law that could have supported Trump's defense. For instance, Smith could have argued that the payments to Stormy Daniels were not made with the intent of influencing an election, a key point in defending against campaign finance violations. By preventing this testimony, the judge might have favored the prosecution's broader interpretation of the law​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Perception of Fairness:
Judicial decisions should ensure the perception of fairness in the courtroom. Limiting a key defense witness's testimony, especially one with extensive expertise like Smith, might be perceived as creating an unfair trial environment. This perception could be amplified by the fact that Smith's expertise was directly relevant to the central issues in the case​ (Homepage page - Mon Valley Independent)​.

Precedents and Judicial Consistency:
Critics might argue that in similar high-profile cases, expert testimonies have been allowed to provide comprehensive legal interpretations. The decision to restrict Smith's testimony could be viewed as inconsistent with such precedents, suggesting a potential bias in this particular case.

By emphasizing these points, you can argue that Judge Merchan's decision to limit Brad Smith's testimony might have shown bias, as it seemingly constrained the defense's ability to present a full and robust argument against the charges.

Hard to understand how blatantly wrong this entire ordeal is if you didn't follow the trial . . . and compound that by relying on AI. 

The AI excerpts don't really say much of anything.  You are of course free to rely on that kind of thing, but it really only gives you a surface level understanding of what happened, and even then not entirely accurate.

Your AI did not address what I posted about the underlying crime.  At least not accurately.  And just like I have repeatedly said (and shown), we do not know what the "other crime is." 

Regarding Bradley Smith, he posted a long thread on X that explained just why precluding his testimony was so harmful. 
https://twitter.com/CommishSmith/status/1796800867313590761

In a nutshell, a campaign expenditure is something that would only ever be spent on a political campaign.  Like political polling data involving the candidate's campaign.  NDAs happen all the time outside of political campaigns, so Trump's payment was not a campaign expenditure.  The jury needed to hear that.  Instead, what they heard is that Cohen pleaded guilty to an FEC violation, Pecker got a deal to avoid being prosecuted for an FEC violation.  And then the Judge precluded evidence that the FEC and DOJ declined to prosecute Trump for an FEC violation.  That left the jury with the distinct impression that Trump must have committed an FEC violation as the "other crime."  But I've said all this already. . . .

AbrahamG

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6165 on: June 05, 2024, 05:59:19 PM »
There is no popular vote contest.  In 2016, Hillary's entire popular vote spread came from California.  In 2020, Biden's entire popular vote spread came from California and New York.  Outside of those two states, Trump got more votes than Biden.

Didn't say there was.  Coach cited polling that has Trump up 18 and 19 points respectively.  My point was that those polls are ridiculous and not to be taken seriously.  Any credible poll should be within a couple points of the margin of error. 

Again, I know we don't have a popular vote contest.  I'd love it if we did as many more people would be inclined to vote.  I'm sure red voters stay home in solid blue states just like blue voters stay home in solid red states.  I'd really like to see how it would shake out. I think politicians from both parties would be forced to campaign more and try to appeal to voters in states they have no chance of winning outright but with every vote counting, folks would turn out more.  That's my position.   


Dos Equis

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6166 on: June 05, 2024, 06:19:20 PM »
Didn't say there was.  Coach cited polling that has Trump up 18 and 19 points respectively.  My point was that those polls are ridiculous and not to be taken seriously.  Any credible poll should be within a couple points of the margin of error. 

Again, I know we don't have a popular vote contest.  I'd love it if we did as many more people would be inclined to vote.  I'm sure red voters stay home in solid blue states just like blue voters stay home in solid red states.  I'd really like to see how it would shake out. I think politicians from both parties would be forced to campaign more and try to appeal to voters in states they have no chance of winning outright but with every vote counting, folks would turn out more.  That's my position.

Thanks for clarifying.  When you say:  "I'll go on record that Biden wins the popular vote.  Again," that sounds like you are saying there is a popular vote contest, but I accept your clarification. 

I wish more people would vote too.  Our turnout sucks, especially with so much at stake. 

AbrahamG

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6167 on: June 05, 2024, 07:30:11 PM »
Thanks for clarifying.  When you say:  "I'll go on record that Biden wins the popular vote.  Again," that sounds like you are saying there is a popular vote contest, but I accept your clarification. 

I wish more people would vote too.  Our turnout sucks, especially with so much at stake.

I said that about the popular to support my position that any poll having either guy especially Trump up 18-19 points is ludicrous.  Why do I say especially Trump?  Since 1988 the GOP has only won the popular vote once. 

JJ Reddick?  Thoughts?

Dos Equis

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6168 on: June 06, 2024, 12:03:47 AM »
I said that about the popular to support my position that any poll having either guy especially Trump up 18-19 points is ludicrous.  Why do I say especially Trump?  Since 1988 the GOP has only won the popular vote once. 

JJ Reddick?  Thoughts?

No one ever wins the popular vote.  It's really a meaningless and misused statistic.

JJ Redick?  Meh.  He could turn out to be out to be Steve Kerr or Steve Nash.  Who knows?  Impossible to predict with someone who has no coaching experience.  The Lakers have sucked picking coaches since Phil Jackson left.  I just hope they can do something transformational like trade for Donovan Mitchell.     

LurkerNoMore

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6169 on: June 07, 2024, 07:52:03 AM »

I m doing fine. 


Liberal dolts are not panicked knowing the corpse is gone very soon.

You said the same thing about Obama's reelection.  And then ran away from the board for weeks in embarrassment.

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deadz

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6171 on: June 08, 2024, 01:56:33 PM »
T

deadz

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6172 on: June 08, 2024, 02:26:29 PM »
T

Primemuscle

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6173 on: June 08, 2024, 02:27:10 PM »


Without a doubt, there are folks who want him dead.

deadz

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Re: Trump = Winning
« Reply #6174 on: June 08, 2024, 02:30:42 PM »
T