Dow Crash Coming To Your 401k

[Neurotoxin]

My % drop was in the P/E ratio.  

My bad.  Ugh.

The S&P Index was down 10.38% so far. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

2416.62/2673.61 = .9039 x 100 = 9.6%

Back to school for me!  

No problem IroNat, at least you’re thinking.

2018:
Nasdaq DOWN > 20%

S&P DOWN > 11%

Dow DOWN > 11%


-NT

[Neurotoxin]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/us-stocks-set-for-lower-week-after-fed-decision-government-shutdown-fears.html

-NT

[IroNat]

Good:

Buy low, sell high.

Buy high, sell higher.

Bad:

Buy high, sell lower.

Buy low, sell lower still.

[Neurotoxin]

Good:

Buy low, sell high.

Buy high, sell higher.

Bad:

Buy high, sell lower.

Buy low, sell lower still.

Correct.

Successful investors know when to EXIT Market to avoid BIG losses that may extend for years

If Market drops 50%, it takes a gain of 100% to get back to breakeven

Wall Street depends upon DUMB MONEY to “cost average down”

 Example : Following the 2001 Crash, Nasdaq needed 16 YEARS to recover @ break even. Dumb money was buying Tech stocks as they dropped for 16 years ( cost average down strategy)

Smart strategy? I think not

-NT

[loco]

http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951



It's December 22nd, and still no Dow Crash has come to 401K in 2018.

[IroNat]

The problem with market timing is knowing when to exit and enter the market.

So far nobody has figured that one out.  Investors who exit a market too early lose returns. 

How do you know for sure when to exit?  You don't. 

How do you know when to get back in?  You don't.

Taxes also come into play if you have stock in non-retirement accounts. 

You also have take dividends into account as part of your total return, which you forego if you sell the stock.

Dividends are an important part of the buy/hold strategy.

The average investor (anybody without inside information) using market timing is on the outside looking in.  He is at a significant disadvantage.

He's betting against the Casino.   The house always wins.

[Neurotoxin]

The problem with market timing is knowing when to exit and enter the market.

So far nobody has figured that one out.  Investors who exit a market too early lose returns. 

How do you know for sure when to exit?  You don't. 

How do you know when to get back in?  You don't.

Taxes also come into play if you have stock in non-retirement accounts. 

You also have take dividends into account as part of your total return, which you forego if you sell the stock.

Dividends are an important part of the buy/hold strategy.

The average investor (anybody without inside information) using market timing is on the outside looking in.  He is at a significant disadvantage.

He's betting against the Casino.   The house always wins.

Go read my 2007 Dow Crash thread.

Coincidence?

Lucky?

Insider?


-NT

[IroNat]

Go read my 2007 Dow Crash thread.

Coincidence?

Lucky?

Insider?


-NT

I agree with you the market is going to tank.  No question about it.

But when?  Tomorrow?  Next year?  Two years from now?

[Neurotoxin]

I agree with you the market is going to tank.  No question about it.

But when?  Tomorrow?  Next year?  Two years from now?

Market crashes are a PROCESS, not an event. You’re watching one now imo.

The last crash took 2 YEARS to complete w/ >60% LOSES.  ( see 07 Dow thread)

AVOIDING 40-60% loses is key to wealth building.

To date:
Nasdaq DOWN -22%
Dow DOWN -12%
S&P DOWN -12%


-NT

[Neurotoxin]

The problem with market timing is knowing when to exit and enter the market.

So far nobody has figured that one out.  Investors who exit a market too early lose returns.  

How do you know for sure when to exit?  You don't.  

How do you know when to get back in?  You don't.

The average investor (anybody without inside information) using market timing is on the outside looking in.  He is at a significant disadvantage.

He's betting against the Casino.   The house always wins.

I agree, the average investor is blindfolded & at significant disadvantage. No idea when to enter or exit Market. (understandable) Reason for “07 Dow Crash thread” was to warn of what I saw coming. I’m normally a Market BULL, which is why I stopped posting years ago. Market looked good once ZIRP was implemented, technicals good,  no need to warn of Market breakdown. Years later..... 2018 Market action/technicals indicated a coming break-down, so decided to throw out a warning flag.... again. Once Market turns, I’ll say so & probably stop posting. Bull Markets are very profitable, but extremely boring.



-NT

[loco]

I agree with you the market is going to tank.  No question about it.

But when?  Tomorrow?  Next year?  Two years from now?

Neurotoxin already said when:  First he said 2016, then 2017, then he said 2018.  Now he's starting to say 2019 because 2018 is almost gone.


http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951

[chaos]

Neurotoxin already said when:  First he said 2016, then 2017, then he said 2018.  Now he's starting to say 2019 because 2018 is almost gone.


http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951

It's like predicting the inevitable. Everyone knows the market will correct itself, just a matter of when.

[loco]

I agree, the average investor is blindfolded & at significant disadvantage. No idea when to enter or exit Market. (understandable) Reason for “07 Dow Crash thread” was to warn of what I saw coming. I’m normally a Market BULL, which is why I stopped posting years ago. Market looked good once ZIRP was implemented, technicals good,  no need to warn of Market breakdown. Years later..... 2018 2016 Market action/technicals indicated a coming break-down, so decided to throw out a warning flag.... again. Once Market turns, I’ll say so & probably stop posting. Bull Markets are very profitable, but extremely boring.

-NT

Fixed.


http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951

[Necrosis]

Correct.

Successful investors know when to EXIT Market to avoid BIG losses that may extend for years

If Market drops 50%, it takes a gain of 100% to get back to breakeven

Wall Street depends upon DUMB MONEY to “cost average down”

 Example : Following the 2001 Crash, Nasdaq needed 16 YEARS to recover @ break even. Dumb money was buying Tech stocks as they dropped for 16 years ( cost average down strategy)

Smart strategy? I think not

-NT

so you don't think cost averaging is a good idea in bear markets to lover you SP average? its one of the few opportunities to get cheap shares. The tech thing was a bubble from my recollection but if you say have amazon or another super solid company you would make significant cash in the long term would you not?

[chaos]

I saw someone posted that the market started dropping right after dems "won" the house back. True?

[Coach is Back!]

I saw someone posted that the market started dropping right after dems "won" the house back. True?

That could very well be. Need to go back to look at the markets before the mid-terms. It actually makes sense

[loco]

I saw someone posted that the market started dropping right after dems "won" the house back. True?

October wasn't a great month for stocks.

[Necrosis]

That could very well be. Need to go back to look at the markets before the mid-terms. It actually makes sense

The largest impact has been Trump, he is being volatile and the trade war with China is fucking things up. Tweets cause the market to panic sell or buy, it's ridiculous.

The markets bounced upon the 90 day hold off but then he tweeted he was the tariff man and the plunged again, it's comical actually.

[chaos]

October wasn't a great month for stocks.

Up? Down? Steady?

[loco]

Up? Down? Steady?

It was the beginning of the current volatility.

[loco]

The largest impact has been Trump, he is being volatile and the trade war with China is fucking things up. Tweets cause the market to panic sell or buy, it's ridiculous.

The markets bounced upon the 90 day hold off but then he tweeted he was the tariff man and the plunged again, it's comical actually.

Necrosis, if you're gonna credit Trump with the current US stock market volatility, are you going to credit him too with how well the US stock market did from the moment he was elected up until October of this year?

Also, US stocks were doing extremely well for a long time while Asian and European markets were tanking.  Whose fault was that?

[Primemuscle]

Good:

Buy low, sell high.

Buy high, sell higher.

Bad:

Buy high, sell lower.

Buy low, sell lower still.

Or, cut your losses while there's still something there.

[loco]

Or, cut your losses while there's still something there.

Translation:  Primemuscle bought high and sold low.

[Neurotoxin]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury/top-trump-official-calls-bankers-will-convene-plunge-protection-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ

“Plunge Protection Team” is called in to save Markets during CRASHES.

Who knew?  

Coincidence?

Luck?

Insider?


-NT

[Necrosis]

Necrosis, if you're gonna credit Trump with the current US stock market volatility, are you going to credit him too with how well the US stock market did from the moment he was elected up until October of this year?

Also, US stocks were doing extremely well for a long time while Asian and European markets were tanking.  Whose fault was that?

The market was improving and I do give him credit initially, I think the sentiment was a business man was in office. I don't see it as black and white as I stated. However, his recent moves have not helped, they have created uncertainty. So it's not his fault per se, he is a huge reason however and I think the market needs stability right now.

Not sure on the Euro/Asian front, I don't know enough to really have an opinion.

I don't have a team but I certainly don't think the things he is doing are reasonable right now.