Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss

[Schmoff]

meanwhile in us

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8083543/Customs-NOT-screening-passengers-coronavirus-hot-spots.html

[loco]

VIDEO: A doctor breaks down the 8 things everyone should know about coronavirus

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/doctor-breaks-down-coronavirus-203755145.html

[Army of One]

"The biggest concern right now is not the current CFR, but what the CFR will be when medical systems get overrun.
About 10% of infections need an IC bed and assisted breathing. If those IC beds and breathing machines run out, we have a serious problem and the CFR may shoot up.

We can use the growth factor of 1.2 (observed in i.e. Italy) to compute the number of days until the number of infections exceeds the number of IC beds.

# days until overrun = CEIL((log(# IC beds * (1 - % of IC beds taken)) - log(# infections))/log(growth factor))

I compute the following:
d00 - number of days until medical system overrun GIVEN 0% of beds are taken
d50 - number of days until medical system overrun GIVEN 50% of beds are taken
d75 - number of days until medical system overrun GIVEN 75% of beds are taken
d90 - number of days until medical system overrun GIVEN 90% of beds are taken

Note that d00 is the most optimistic scenario, and very unrealistic. Most countries have a shortage of IC beds on a normal day, especially in urban areas.
In the Netherlands d90 is more realistic. Friends who work in the medical sector have told me this. You can decide for yourself which estimate you find most reasonable.

Country (#infections / #beds)
>d90/d75/d50/d00

Italy (9172/8000)
>0 / 5 / 9 / 12 (Locally the medical system is already overrun. Field hospitals are being deployed)
Switzerland (374/ 1000)
>6 / 11 / 15 / 19
Sweden (248/700)
>6 / 11 / 15 / 19
Spain (1209/8000)
>9 / 14 / 18 / 22
Netherlands (321/ 2056)
>11 / 16 / 20 / 23
France (1073/5000)
>11 / 16 / 20 / 23
Belgium (239/2000)
>12 / 17 / 21 / 25
UK (321/5000)
>16 / 21 / 24 / 28
Germany (1176/25000)
>17 / 22 / 26 / 30
Luxembourg (3/200)
>24 / 29 / 32 / 36"

[a_pupil]

The media turning on the donald for this is just dumb. There's not much you can do when a new contagious disease emerges except some basic measures and hoping for the best.

It's like trying to stop billions of people from spreading the flue.

[SAMSON123]

meanwhile in us,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8083543/Customs-NOT-screening-passengers-coronavirus-hot-spots.html

Those who control the US want you all dead....

[ilalin]

“Speaking of being at risk, the president, he sleeps less than I do, and he's healthier than what I am” - US Surgeon General
 

i hope this fat bitch dies first

[Army of One]

Italy suspends mortgage payments.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexSaundersAU/status/1237314081494724609?s=19

[ilalin]

Love to know why large events in the US like SXSW are getting cancelled..

yet Universal Studios, Disney parks.. etc.. remain open?

because the dumb masses need to be extinct

[ilalin]

This guy should never, never wear white pants. They make him look like a great white whale.

Prime, that's an insult to the Great White

[ilalin]

I looked at the DNA sequence of Covid19 and compared it to the bat virus. 96% identical. Comparison to other Coronaviruses yields a lower percentage. There is also a spot at the end of the DNA sequence where the sequence differs resulting in (after sequence translation) exactly four additional amino acids in the protein chain (back to back). You will almost never see (one in a quadrillion) exactly four amino acids insertion during natural mutation.
Looking at a recently taken down scientific article from a Taiwanese scientist claiming the virus has been engineered and escaped the only Level 4 lab in China (in Wuhan, incidentally) with the person that supposedly worked on it dying from the infection, coupled with the fact that the bat's nutsack and other bat body parts are not sold on the market that was questionably the origin of infection, I believe we will never exactly know how this virus started infecting people.

[blackpele]

I looked at the DNA sequence of Covid19 and compared it to the bat virus. 96% identical. Comparison to other Coronaviruses yields a lower percentage. There is also a spot at the end of the DNA sequence where the sequence differs resulting in (after sequence translation) exactly four additional amino acids in the protein chain (back to back). You will almost never see (one in a quadrillion) exactly four amino acids insertion during natural mutation.
Looking at a recently taken down scientific article from a Taiwanese scientist claiming the virus has been engineered and escaped the only Level 4 lab in China (in Wuhan, incidentally) with the person that supposedly worked on it dying from the infection, coupled with the fact that the bat's nutsack and other bat body parts are not sold on the market that was questionably the origin of infection, I believe we will never exactly know how this virus started infecting people.

Thanks ilalin!!!........great post

[ilalin]

Thanks ilalin!!!........great post

no worries..and here is the link to the withdrawn article (just see the abstract). Something stinks here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjt65rgsZDoAhX9gXIEHb0xDDEQFjAGegQIChAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.biorxiv.org%2Fcontent%2F10.1101%2F2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0WUvEAf_dfDxu-wnu-X40L

[robcguns]

i hope this fat bitch dies first

Hahaha keep crying liberal.Boohoo I’m a little pussy.

[Army of One]

And so it begins

[BB]

Is it true that USA is sticking to it's principle "no healthcare for free" and is denying testing unless you pay 3000$?

Sort of, I forget the number, but the Corona test is between $2000 - 3000, and they were passing at least some of the cost down to citizens. But that's slowly changing, a handful of cities have ordered insurers to cover it, and many of the US's bigger insurers folded and said they'll make it a free test for all the people they cover.

I suspect in the next few days it will be a free test to all. I'm also sure the insurers will find a way to recoup the cost.

[TheGrinch]

Art imitates life?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containment_(TV_series)

[ilalin]

Hahaha keep crying liberal.Boohoo I’m a little pussy.

if you were smart, you'd realize a long time ago that trump (no, not Trump) is a lying piece of shit and a conman. I'm all for American prosperity and this bitch, has not and will never bring anything prosperous to the great American nation. In fact, I believe he would collude with any other lying piece of shit to keep himself in power.
I am not sure why I am trying to explain this to you. It's like trying to explain to a bipolar person that is in their mania portion of the disorder, that they are manic. When the depresion sets in, you will see for yourself. It might take years, though.

[Army of One]

if you were smart, you'd realize a long time ago that trump (no, not Trump) is a lying piece of shit and a conman. I'm all for American prosperity and this bitch, has not and will never bring anything prosperous to the great American nation. In fact, I believe he would collude with any other lying piece of shit to keep himself in power.
I am not sure why I am trying to explain this to you. It's like trying to explain to a bipolar person that is in their mania portion of the disorder, that they are manic. When the depresion sets in, you will see for yourself. It might take years, though.

Every politician is a lying piece of shit and a conman.You dont get anywhere in politics without being ruthless and stepping on people to get to where you want to be.You just need someone who projects strength and isn't afraid to offend people to get the job done.Apart from dropping the ball on not acting quickly enough on Corona, Trump has done this best of any president I've seen.

[ilalin]

And so it begins

Too little, too late, I think that the number of infected in the USA is already very significant. We are just not informed yet. Canada might be in the same boat.
This is due to the fact that some cases might go symptomless for up to 24 days. This, coupled with the fact that the virus is easily transmitted and might even survive on surfaces for some time, points to all of us being in danger. 3% is not very high if talking about 100,000 cases. But 3% of a million is 30,000 deaths. And that sucks.
Men have higher chances of contracting too. A good thing is that children seem to be more resistant. Lord of the Flies, baby...

[ilalin]

Every politician is a lying piece of shit and a conman.You dont get anywhere in politics without being ruthless and stepping on people to get to where you want to be.You just need someone who projects strength and isn't afraid to offend people to get the job done.Apart from dropping the ball on not acting quickly enough on Corona, Trump has done this best of any president I've seen.

i agree. It's just that he's not very smart. He might have capable people around him telling him what to do, where I'd hope he'd listen.

[Kwon]

if you were smart, you'd realize a long time ago that trump (no, not Trump) is a lying piece of shit and a conman. I'm all for American prosperity and this bitch, has not and will never bring anything prosperous to the great American nation. In fact, I believe he would collude with any other lying piece of shit to keep himself in power.
I am not sure why I am trying to explain this to you. It's like trying to explain to a bipolar person that is in their mania portion of the disorder, that they are manic. When the depresion sets in, you will see for yourself. It might take years, though.

Your brain has to be incredibly small, and you have to be incredibly gullible to believe that Trump isn't the savior and the Kwizatz Haderach US and the World needs.

In other words, you have to be just like the millions of other sheeple on social media who see something and cannot for the love of God use their little brains to do a shred of investigating before they suck the proverbial cock of fakeness down and start spreading it all over the God damned internet.

Sheep.

[Army of One]

Too little, too late, I think that the number of infected in the USA is already very significant. We are just not informed yet. Canada might be in the same boat.
This is due to the fact that some cases might go symptomless for up to 24 days. This, coupled with the fact that the virus is easily transmitted and might even survive on surfaces for some time, points to all of us being in danger. 3% is not very high if talking about 100,000 cases. But 3% of a million is 30,000 deaths. And that sucks.
Men have higher chances of contracting too. A good thing is that children seem to be more resistant. Lord of the Flies, baby...

Yup.And that 3% number goes out the window once hospitals are overloaded imho.

[Army of One]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237145452681875457

[Army of One]

Just flu, bro

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgfspi/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_hcid/

[Primemuscle]

Prime, that's an insult to the Great White

I hadn't thought of that, but you are right. Sorry all you Great White whales.