For Italy
This was the next 6 weeks or so:
1/31/2020 2 (n.a.)
2/6/2020 3 (+50%)
2/21/2020 20 (+567%)
2/22/2020 79 (+295%)
2/23/2020 150 (+90%)
2/24/2020 227 (+51%)
2/25/2020 320 (+41%)
2/26/2020 445 (+39%)
2/27/2020 650 (+46%)
2/28/2020 888 (+37%)
2/29/2020 1,128 (+27%)
3/1/2020 1,694 (+50%)
3/2/2020 2,036 (+20%)
3/3/2020 2,502 (+23%)
3/4/2020 3,089 (+23%)
3/5/2020 3,858 (+25%)
3/6/2020 4,636 (+20%)
3/7/2020 5,883 (+27%)
3/8/2020 7,375 (+25%)
3/9/2020 9,172 (+24%)
3/10/2020 10,149 (+11%)
3/11/2020 12,462 (+23%)
3/12/2020 15,113 (+21%)
3/13/2020 17,660 (+17%)
3/14/2020 21,157 (+20%)
3/15/2020 24,747 (+17%)
3/16/2020 27,980 (+13%[ii])
Supposed to double every 2-4 days, slowing as you near the peak. At first you can see the 2 day multiple then it slows to 4 day but now it has slowed again.
Italy were deemed the worst, therefore arguably should get the highest infection rate. Lets say 80%.
Population 60M @ 80% infection is 48M.
Death rate of 2% is 0.96M
Infection of 48M vs reported 0.0028M and data showing it has slowed meaning it should be nearing the peak. That is at odds to the shutdown timing. Incubation is 2 weeks + 1 week to feel bad. The numbers should continue to increase for at least 1-2 weeks before any impact (if any) from the.shutdowns shows a slowing.
Therefore the conclusion is they are slowing down their diagnosis of the virus just like everybody else.