Author Topic: Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss  (Read 584243 times)

TheGrinch

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2000 on: March 25, 2020, 12:28:33 PM »
Garcetti ain't fckin around

Mayor Garcetti announces water and power will be shut off for nonessential L.A. businesses that don’t close

https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/mayor-garcetti-expected-to-hold-daily-briefing-on-l-a-s-covid-19-response/

NarcissisticDeity

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2001 on: March 25, 2020, 02:13:19 PM »
 :)

Army of One

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2002 on: March 25, 2020, 02:17:17 PM »
:)

Deeply flawed study by Oxford that is getting torn to shreds all over the world at this point.

Flexacon

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2003 on: March 25, 2020, 02:41:37 PM »
Deeply flawed study by Oxford that is getting torn to shreds all over the world at this point.

What about it is flawed?

Moontrane

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2004 on: March 25, 2020, 02:41:50 PM »
Garcetti ain't fckin around

Mayor Garcetti announces water and power will be shut off for nonessential L.A. businesses that don’t close

https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/mayor-garcetti-expected-to-hold-daily-briefing-on-l-a-s-covid-19-response/


While LA's homeless are still allowed to "shelter" in place.


Twaddle

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2006 on: March 25, 2020, 02:55:11 PM »
What about it is flawed?

Results

"Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness."


The entire study is based on an "assumption".  

Teutonic Knight 1

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2007 on: March 25, 2020, 03:04:57 PM »
Germans are very robust people


Not today's generation, total softcocks  >:(

Flexacon

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2008 on: March 25, 2020, 03:08:58 PM »


https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552

It's a model. You need to assume the value of p (percentage of infected needing critical medical assistance)

They went with what looks like unrealistic percentages in their paper. 1% and 0.1% which gave headline grabbing outcomes/borderline fake news, but their model also mirrored the actual death rate data when p was 10% and 3%

You can't say it's flawed unless you know the actual value of p and are able to run the model against the actual figures of a country which didn't take any measures to slow down the virus

Mayday

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2009 on: March 25, 2020, 03:15:51 PM »
Gyms have been closed for at least 6 months.

Typo dude. Gyms only just closed ;)

My gym shut on the 23rd March.

Army of One

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2010 on: March 25, 2020, 03:18:37 PM »
It's a model. You need to assume the value of p (percentage of infected needing critical medical assistance)

They went with what looks like unrealistic percentages in their paper. 1% and 0.1% which gave headline grabbing outcomes/borderline fake news, but their model also mirrored the actual death rate data when p was 10% and 3%

You can't say it's flawed unless you know the actual value of p and are able to run the model against the actual figures of a country which didn't take any measures to slow down the virus

Most on the ground and most who deal with what stats we know, when the virus started showing hospitalisations, incubation, proportion shown to be infected to not when testing etc, believe it's flawed.Marbles in a jar, wisdom of the crowd etc.Dont get me wrong I'd love for it to be true, I'd happily take shit on here for being wrong if this would all be over soon as most have become immune.But nothing points to that.

Flexacon

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2011 on: March 25, 2020, 03:32:49 PM »
Most on the ground and most who deal with what stats we know, when the virus started showing hospitalisations, incubation, proportion shown to be infected to not when testing etc, believe it's flawed.Marbles in a jar, wisdom of the crowd etc.Dont get me wrong I'd love for it to be true, I'd happily take shit on here for being wrong if this would all be over soon as most have become immune.But nothing points to that.

There is no true or false with the actual paper. It's just a model. They even make a point in the paper that they didn't use plausible values for p when talking about herd immunity.

It's an interesting paper, but it's been presented at the wrong time and publicized in a horrible way. I wouldn't write off the model completely though. The middle ground between the Oxford and Imperial papers are likely where the reality is.





friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2012 on: March 25, 2020, 03:39:01 PM »
So the US is 10 days into their 15 days to slow the spread.

665,424 infected - will pass both Italy and China before those 15 days are over.
+10,568 new cases - that's in ONE day.
1,411 in serious, critical condition.
928 total deaths.
+148 new deaths in ONE day.

Mayday

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2013 on: March 25, 2020, 04:00:36 PM »
And around 1/10th cases per million population of Switzerland and Italy.

This isn't aimed at you but i feel bad for Americans being made out like they are the problem in the world now (i am not in the US but this is how you are being portrayed now).

A number is meaningless without context.

US added 10k cases overnight on a population of 330M.

Look at all the european countries between 3% and 10% the size of the US and they are adding 3k- 7k per day.

Europe is spiralling and they are all getting sick at a much, much faster rate than the US. That should still be the main headline.


friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2014 on: March 25, 2020, 04:18:44 PM »
I don't think the US is the problem of the world, but from what I understand they're behind some of those european countries, i.e. the worst is still to come.

Also some of those european countries are pretty big.

Italy is 60 million, Spain 47 million, Germany 83 million, France 67 million.

Teutonic Knight 1

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2015 on: March 25, 2020, 04:23:29 PM »
I don't think the US is the problem of the world, but from what I understand they're behind some of those european countries, i.e. the worst is still to come.

Also some of those european countries are pretty big.

Italy is 60 million, Spain 47 million, Germany 83 million, France 67 million.


Some sparky news: ambulances & cops don't go to Paris 'No Go Zones' populated by arabs  8)

chaos

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2016 on: March 25, 2020, 04:40:10 PM »
Results

"Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness."


The entire study is based on an "assumption".  

As are the presumptions that 22.5 million Californians will get it.
Liar!!!!Filt!!!!

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2017 on: March 25, 2020, 05:05:32 PM »
I think the response should go by a State by State basis. Some States are hit much harder than others like New York and California. In Hawaii, we have 95 confirmed cases with the vast majority of 68 being on the main island, Oahu, where I live. We have zero deaths reported due to the coronavirus. There was one death reported but upon closer examination, this was found to be false. Still, we've shut down all businesses, malls, events, restaurants and fast-food drive-ins, schools, churches and places of worship, a curfew from 9 pm to 5 am, those violating the curfew can be fine up to $5,000 and a year in jail.

I think that temporarily closing our borders and the personal precautions people are already taking should be enough without having to shut down the whole State. There is already widespread testing and it's increased to six cases over the last couple of days.

Maybe another week or so to see if the amount goes up dramatically but with 68 cases in the most crowded and populated island of nearly a million people, it doesn't seem worth the cost to the livelihood of so many people. Again, I know of nobody, and know nobody that knows anybody, that has the virus, but everyone knows, including themselves, that are now without jobs and a way to support their families.

friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2018 on: March 25, 2020, 05:08:03 PM »
I can see massive testings being a problem in New York, but on an island, with closed borders, surely it must be possible to test and trace those who are infected.

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2019 on: March 25, 2020, 05:13:48 PM »
I can see massive testings being a problem in New York, but on an island, with closed borders, surely it must be possible to test and trace those who are infected.

As I mentioned in my previous post, we are already doing widespread testing. If you have any symptoms at all and a temperature you can drive up and be tested at a Walgreens.

New York is so densely populated with people from all over the world coming and going. Also, it seems in those densely populated areas it is very dirty and unsanitary.

Kwon

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2020 on: March 25, 2020, 05:42:41 PM »
Seal off Manhattan and put all affected and criminals there.


Build a wall around Manhattan!

Q

friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2021 on: March 25, 2020, 06:09:15 PM »
I think I saw that movie!

honest

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2022 on: March 25, 2020, 06:19:38 PM »
true infection rates be known the mortality rate would be very low not as low as flu maybe but who knows with scare mongering wankers running around calling the end of the world its hard to tell as they want to just bombard others with distorted figures similar to the climate change argumemt, yes the climates being impacted by us, but no the world won't end, do we need to do something about it yes.  Is this virus killing the old and weak and sometimes the young and vulnerable tragically, yes, but is it the end of the world, no its an epidemic that needs to be managed with as much compassion for life as possible but also against economic damage and the current response is economically reckless.There are far better ways of achieving a result than following the path of a bunch of dumb communists who built an economy on the back of cheap labor and stealing others countries intellectual property, as they lack the creative intelligence to invent things themselves.

Kwon

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2023 on: March 25, 2020, 06:29:54 PM »
Even if i should perish from the Corona, i must say i am glad to have been with all of you here since 2003.



Wish you all the best in this crisis, wherever you are in the world.
Q

dearth

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #2024 on: March 25, 2020, 07:10:48 PM »
Why does this dumb baby think everything is about him?





Trump accuses media of wanting to keep economy shut to hurt his reelection


Donald Trump has accused the media of wanting to keep the US economy shuttered during the coronavirus pandemic to undermine his chances of reelection.

The US president has been pushing to reopen swaths of the country by Easter – 12 April – despite warnings from medical experts that measures such as closing businesses and social distancing need more time to work.

“The LameStream Media is the dominant force in trying to get me to keep our Country closed as long as possible in the hope that it will be detrimental to my election success,” he tweeted on Wednesday. “The real people want to get back to work ASAP. ”

Related: US Christian leaders criticise Trump's Easter coronavirus deadline

At Wednesday’s White House coronavirus task force briefing, Trump followed up with an aggressive denial that the Easter timeline is based on his political interests. “The media would like to see me do poorly in the election,” he said.

Challenged by a reporter, Trump, who has long used the press as a punching bag, said with exasperation: “Just so you understand – are you ready? – I think there are certain people that would like it not to open so quickly. I think there are certain people that would like it to do financially poorly because they think that would be very good as far as defeating me at the polls.”

The president added: “I don’t know if that’s so, but I do think it’s so that there are people in your profession that would like that to happen. I think it’s very clear that there are people in your profession that write fake news.”

Gesturing around the briefing room with his hands, he said: “You do. She does. There are people in your profession that write fake news. They would love to see me – for whatever reason, because we’ve done one hell of a job, nobody’s done the job that we’ve done – and it’s lucky that you have this group here right now for this problem because you wouldn’t even have a country left.”

Trump has long tied his political fortunes to the economy in general and stock market in particular, but the coronavirus outbreak has wiped out the stock gains of his presidency. On Wednesday he reiterated his call for restarting the economy at Easter, even though US infections have now topped 60,000 and scientists have warned of disastrous consequences for public health.

“It’s time,” he said. “People want to get back to work. I want to get our country back.”

But he sought to provide reassurance that he would heed the advice of public health officials. “I’m not going to do anything rash or hastily, I don’t do that.”

People who return to work could still take precautions, Trump claimed. “They’re not going to walk around hugging and kissing each other in the office when they come back. Even though they may feel like it.”

The deadline goal drew criticism from Democratic front runner Joe Biden, the president’s likely opponent in the November election. “Now he’s suggesting he wants to get the country opened – back open by Easter,” Biden told reporters at a virtual press conference. “Look, we all want to get back to normal as quickly as possible, but we have a lot to do to make that possible. We have to do it in a smart way – not on some arbitrary or symbolic timeline.”

The former vice president, speaking via video link from his basement, added: “It would be a catastrophic thing to do for our people and for our economy if we sent people back to work just as we were beginning to see the impact of social distancing take hold only to unleash a second spike in infections.”

Biden’s Democratic primary with Senator Bernie Sanders has been paralysed by the crisis, denying both men political oxygen, and the long term political implications remain unpredictable. Opinion polls suggest a majority of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the crisis, despite his early downplaying of the threat.

At Wednesday’s briefing, Trump also urged Congress to pass a historic $2tn stimulus bill negotiated by his administration and Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate. “I will sign it immediately,” he said, adding that it would mark a “great day for the American worker and American families”.

The bill, delayed by bitter partisan battles, includes funding to send $1,200 cheques to many Americans, $500bn to help distressed companies, including $25bn for airlines, and $367bn in loans to sustain small businesses.

Related: US Senate leaders reach deal with White House on $2tn coronavirus package

Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, thanked Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell minority leader Chuck Schumer for their efforts. “We couldn’t be more pleased with the unprecedented response from the Senate to protect American workers and American businesses,” he told reporters.

“Our expectation is this bill passes tonight and gets to the House tomorrow. And they pass it. We need to get this money into the American economy and American workers.”

Meanwhile Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that the coronavirus could be seasonal and cyclical. “I know we’ll be successful in putting this down now,” he said. “But we really need to be prepared for another cycle.”

Trump also offered some bizarre digressions, boasting about his efforts to make Nato allies pay more, touting his “big, beautiful wall” and defending the package’s $25m funding for the John F Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington.

“This was a request from the Democrats because of the fact that they have a facility that’s essentially closed up,” he said. “If I wanted to go there tonight to look at Romeo and Juliet, I’d love to go see Romero and Juliet...”