Holding precious metals for this shit?

[pellius]

I currently work at TD Ameritrade and up until our office close last week we were swamped with people coming in with large checks depositing into their accounts. They are sure the market is going to go back up and they're buying stocks at bargain-basement prices. Oil is said to get as low as $25 a barrel and there is no way that is not going to go up eventually.

[Mayday]

They are sure the market is going to go back up and they're buying stocks at bargain-basement prices.

It's week 2 (or 3?) of closures of an 8-12 week period and they think tbis is the bottom.

That's pretty keen.....

[SOMEPARTS]

I did physical silver many years ago during that silver/gold spike. I see the same stuff written today as i did a decade ago but it will turn out the same.

There was a split between physical and paper. It came back together. Physical was only good providing you sold before the peak. If you hold it after, you end up paying a premium to buy but sell for spot.

Metals will do a run up but you need to wait for the markets to play out and stabilise before the run up begins.

The run should last as long as QE does.

You can bet that up until the very end of the petrodollar system that two categories of people will be destroyed over and over again....savers and metals holders.

[pellius]

It's week 2 (or 3?) of closures of an 8-12 week period and they think tbis is the bottom.

That's pretty keen.....

Well, we did have record high. Who knows, I'm. I expert but I see how much these "keen" people are worth in their accounts and they have to be doing something right. We are routinely taking a couple of million everyday just on walk ins.

[Mayday]

Well, we did have record high. Who knows, I'm. I expert but I see how much these "keen" people are worth in their accounts and they have to be doing something right. We are routinely taking a couple of million everyday just on walk ins.

QE money has started to hit, stabilising things for a time but the futures are showing it will be butchered.

Unemployment and consumer market closure along with all the corporate loans isn't yet factored yet because those are lagging factors.

This is way worse than the GFC. If the market only loses 30% on the biggest financisl crisis in our lifetime, that will be worthy of making a religion out of.

[Thin Lizzy]

I currently work at TD Ameritrade and up until our office close last week we were swamped with people coming in with large checks depositing into their accounts. They are sure the market is going to go back up and they're buying stocks at bargain-basement prices. Oil is said to get as low as $25 a barrel and there is no way that is not going to go up eventually.

That these people are still using paper checks as opposed to transferring money into their accounts tells me they are unsophisticated investors who will eventually get their asses handed to them.

Just because they’re good at what they do for a living doesn’t mean they’re good at the stock market.

[Tapeworm]

Whiskey it is then!

If I don't swap it I can drink it.

[Mayday]

That these people are still using paper checks as opposed to transferring money into their accounts tells me they are unsophisticated investors who will eventually get their asses handed to them.

Funny, just as i opened up my browser now, there was an article saying google were concerned over the huge trend in 'how to buy stocks' searches.

These people buy in now, the 2nd wave hits and it starts to crumble, they bail out and lose a bundle.

I have had a few non-financial wary people tell me they are going to buy shares. Ok, no prob, good luck.

Be patient. Wait.

[Thin Lizzy]

Funny, just as i opened up my browser now, there was an article saying google were concerned over the huge trend in 'how to buy stocks' searches.

These people buy in now, the 2nd wave hits and it starts to crumble, they bail out and lose a bundle.

I have had a few non-financial wary people tell me they are going to buy shares. Ok, no prob, good luck.

Be patient. Wait.

There is no better indicator of when not to buy than when the unsuspecting public is buying.

The crash this most closely resembles is 1987 which was also accompanied by a health scare, aids. While there was some bounce back and rallies, the market did not break out from the former high until five years later in 1992. I suspect that’s going to be the case here.

Regarding oil, it’s currently at $20 a barrel down from a recent high of 60. Anyone familiar with percentages knows that is 66% drop takes a two hundred percent rise just to get back to even. Anything is possible but it’s highly unlikely.

Insiders go by percentages. So, purchase price doesn’t really matter. With the same amount of money to put to work, oil going from 20 to 30 is the same as it going from 100 to 150. Same deal with stocks.

[pellius]

That these people are still using paper checks as opposed to transferring money into their accounts tells me they are unsophisticated investors who will eventually get their asses handed to them.

Just because they’re good at what they do for a living doesn’t mean they’re good at the stock market.

Again, I'm no expert but why is that?

[pellius]

There is no better indicator of when not to buy than when the unsuspecting public is buying.

The crash this most closely resembles is 1987 which was also accompanied by a health scare, aids. While there was some bounce back and rallies, the market did not break out from the former high until five years later in 1992. I suspect that’s going to be the case here.

Regarding oil, it’s currently at $20 a barrel down from a recent high of 60. Anyone familiar with percentages knows that is 66% drop takes a two hundred percent rise just to get back to even. Anything is possible but it’s highly unlikely.

Insiders go by percentages. So, purchase price doesn’t really matter. With the same amount of money to put to work, oil going from 20 to 30 is the same as it going from 100 to 150. Same deal with stocks.

But isn't it more likely that oil will go from 20 to 30 than 100-150? Oil is not going to stay at 20 forever.

[loco]

That these people are still using paper checks as opposed to transferring money into their accounts tells me they are unsophisticated investors who will eventually get their asses handed to them.

Just because they’re good at what they do for a living doesn’t mean they’re good at the stock market.

Possibly, or they could be wealthy, sophisticated, passive, technology challenged, old fart investors who had plenty of cash sitting around for an opportunity like this.

[loco]

I would invest in a mutual fund with stocks that are more dependable and will eventually go up, or back up in the next year or so.   Having one or two stocks is more complicated at the moment vs a mutual fund, which are down at the moment.  Even if they go down a little more, they will eventually go back up.  Or stay with the banks for 1.5% interest a year.  Keep a mix of all

Ron, what do you mean by mutual fund with stocks that are more dependable?  More dependable?  Are you talking about an S&P 500 index fund, or are you talking about searching for and finding what you believe are "more dependable" funds?  Hiring a financial adviser or fund manager to do the searching for you?

"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." - John Bogle

Buy and hold, as early, as often, and as much as possible:

VTSAX (total us stock) or VFIAX (S&P 500)

and VBTLX (total us bond)

and VTIAX (total international stock)

[Rambone]

Ron, what do you mean by mutual fund with stocks that are more dependable?  More dependable?  Are you talking about an S&P 500 index fund, or are you talking about searching for and finding what you believe are "more dependable" funds?  Hiring a financial adviser or fund manager to do the searching for you?

"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." - John Bogle

Buy and hold, as early, as often, and as much as possible:

VTSAX (total us stock) or VFIAX (S&P 500)

and VBTLX (total us bond)

and VTIAX (total international stock)

And also, what banks are offering a 1.5% interest rate nowadays? None of them are. I have a cash account with Wealthfront which generally has one of the highest rates, and it went from 1.7% to around .25% after the recent rate cuts

[loco]

And also, what banks are offering a 1.5% interest rate nowadays? None of them are. I have a cash account with Wealthfront which generally has one of the highest rates, and it went from 1.7% to around .25% after the recent rate cuts

Ally bank:

https://www.ally.com/bank/online-savings-account/

[Thin Lizzy]

But isn't it more likely that oil will go from 20 to 30 than 100-150? Oil is not going to stay at 20 forever.

There’s no way to know that.

[Rambone]

Ally bank:

https://www.ally.com/bank/online-savings-account/

Wow. I wonder why all the others aren’t even close to that. Ally was one of the others I was considering before settling with Wealthfront. I might have to move it over there. Thanks

[Thin Lizzy]

Again, I'm no expert but why is that?

Because the skill sets rarely transfer over. There are a lot of things in the financial markets that seem to make sense but in reality don’t.

In fact, the people like the ones you describe walking in with a lot of money are the fish in the barrel that Wall Street likes to shoot.

The media doesn’t help either. Essentially everything they say is bullshit. So if you’re someone who goes by what you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg you will invariably be lead in the wrong direction. You want to talk about fake news. Financial media is the ultimate.

[loco]

Because the skill sets rarely transfer over. There are a lot of things in the financial markets that seem to make sense but in reality don’t.

In fact, the people like the ones you describe walking in with a lot of money are the fish in the barrel that Wall Street likes to shoot.

The media doesn’t help either. Essentially everything they say is bullshit. So if you’re someone who goes by what you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg you will invariably be lead in the wrong direction. You want to talk about fake news. Financial media is the ultimate.

Thin Lizzy ain't lying.

[loco]

Wow. I wonder why all the others aren’t even close to that. Ally was one of the others I was considering before settling with Wealthfront. I might have to move it over there. Thanks

Don't mention it.  In my opinion, Wealthfront, Citi, and others are crap when it comes to savings accounts and CDs, even if they offer a higher rate at times.  They might be good at other things, but not savings and CDs.

Ally is the best online bank in terms of customer service, ease of use, product offerings, etc., even when their rates are lower than others at times.

[IroNat]

I heard Maytag is a good stock because they are very dependable.

[pellius]

There’s no way to know that.

How about past history. Do you really think it will stay at $20/barrel?

[Thin Lizzy]

How about past history. Do you really think it will stay at $20/barrel?

The past is water under the bridge. I don’t believe you can predict future prices. I have no idea what Oil will be in a year. lt was 60 at the start of the year. Did ANYBODY predict it would drop to 20 in three months?

The problem with predicting future prices is that there are too many unknown variables and you’re always going to miss something.

[pellius]

The past is water under the bridge. I don’t believe you can predict future prices. I have no idea what Oil will be in a year. lt was 60 at the start of the year. Did ANYBODY predict it would drop to 20 in three months?

The problem with predicting future prices is that there are too many unknown variables and you’re always going to miss something.

Isn't that what is part of investing? Nobody invests in anything unless they think it's going to increase in value. Nothing is guaranteed but you take past behavior to predict future behavior. I'm not saying that one should predict what future oil prices will be but that it won't be at $20/barrel indefinitely  and the chances that it will be higher in the future is more likely than going lower indefinitely

[pellius]

Because the skill sets rarely transfer over. There are a lot of things in the financial markets that seem to make sense but in reality don’t.

In fact, the people like the ones you describe walking in with a lot of money are the fish in the barrel that Wall Street likes to shoot.

The media doesn’t help either. Essentially everything they say is bullshit. So if you’re someone who goes by what you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg you will invariably be lead in the wrong direction. You want to talk about fake news. Financial media is the ultimate.

No, I mean why is it a sign of "unsophistication" that someone uses paper checks instead of electronic transfers to fund their accounts so that they have the cash on hand to execute trades. I mean, how unsophisticated can this guy be with his finances? He was an older guy and a lot of them are just not comfortable or trust computers and the internet.

How are you doing financially? Are you able to drop million dollar checks?