US is 20.5T GDP
China is 13.5T GDP
Russia is 1.6T GDP
nobody is remotely close to replacing the US.
The QE is fine as we are in deflafion. It is standard to print like mofo to offset outflows from asset classes and everyone is doing it so we are all in the same boat.
Hyperinflation is 50% inflation per month. Majority of thr Western world sits around 1.5% per year. Even with trillions in QE we are all still around 1.5% inflation for this full year.
Interest rates correlate to inflation. Therefore if interest rate are at zero, that answers your inflation question (CPI).
Alright, let us explore some of the different ideas that you have presented here and see if they can be used to validate your claims. You threw out both micro/macroeconomic concepts and we can explore both.
US is 20.5T GDP
China is 13.5T GDP
Russia is 1.6T GDP
nobody is remotely close to replacing the US.
Addressing the
MACRO-
First, with regards to a nation replacing the US, it's difficult to even begin to fathom the idea of replacing the USA when in comparison to those two other countries when China (socialist market economy) and Russia (mixed + transition economy) have completely different types of economies. It is literally comparing apples to oranges by way of economic terms. We’re capitalists, they are not. If there was another capitalist world power working closely with both China and Russia, then maybe we would have a suitable replacement, but there isn't.
So that idea when presented as a comparison of the 3 towards probable replacement of the USA has no merit.
What we do know is that back in the late 1920s, the USA was one of its kind in terms of its economic prosperity and that didn't stop us from falling into the Great Depression. History is once again repeating itself by way of the US finding itself in a massive debt bubble that is on the verge of bursting. My original question posed in this thread was whether or not China and Russia could be collaborating towards an overthrow of the USA by way of a coup against the dollar. The bilateral foreign market trading between China & Russia has shown us that since 2015 the use of the US dollar for trade between those nations has drastically fallen from over 90% (2015) to just around 46% (2020). This shows us that while the goal might not be to replace the US with another capitalistic superpower, the goal might instead be to simply have it be crushed under the weight of its own debt and by way of de-dollarization/loss of FIAT status due to a lack of use of the USD in foreign markets.
Your comparison of nominal GDP between the US, China and Russia isn't really a great indicator of the overall economic health between the three nations. While one can argue that GDP is a good indicator of the economic health of a particular country, you're using nominal GDP, which mainly shows us that the US is a rich country. Nominal GDP can very easily fool the eyes as we saw in the roaring 1920s, when the nation experienced amazing economic growth boasting of a GDP that grew by 42% and the stock market having over 20% growth per year and then magically by 1929 we had The Great Depression of US history. What we aren't dissecting into is the real GDP per capita, which would in turn show us the true disparity between the standard of living amongst Americans, in other words the true welfare of its citizens. I think if you evaluate the real GDP per capita, you will notice that the USA has been in a rapid decline for the last 1-2 years (full 2019 - couple quarters into 2020), which further shows us that there is a growing disparity between the rich and the poor and the overall purchasing power that our various classes do or do not appreciate.
Blame it on Coronavirus if you'd like, but to have Q2 2020 (2nd) at -31.7% and previously a Q1 2020 (3rd) at -5.0% is dangerous territory. It's as if we've entered into the perfect storm and we're using Coronavirus as the wool to hide our economic downfall through.
Aside from the shortcomings of using nominal GDP as a comparison between nations, you can't forget the fact that depending on which nation you live in, GDP is nothing more than a number given that places like China can artificially increase their GDP at will by way of underhanded methods (building ghost towns, central bank providing equity to smaller companies redistributing wealth to boost GDP etc).
Again, the question raised was whether China & Russia could be collaborating towards a coup of the US dollar, which in turn could propel us towards another great depression by massive devaluation of the dollar and likely loss of our FIAT status.
Addressing the
MICRO-
The QE is fine as we are in deflafion. It is standard to print like mofo to offset outflows from asset classes and everyone is doing it so we are all in the same boat.
We are not in active deflation. The last time we were in a state of deflation was between 2007 & 2008. Please show where any US economist, the chair of the federal reserve or even our president has suggested that we are in active deflation.
That is not happening at all at this point. We could get there, but we aren’t there.
Hyperinflation is 50% inflation per month. Majority of thr Western world sits around 1.5% per year. Even with trillions in QE we are all still around 1.5% inflation for this full year.
Interest rates correlate to inflation. Therefore if interest rate are at zero, that answers your inflation question (CPI).
The idea brought forth earlier is that if our economy continues to drop and we continue to print money & pump out stimulus packages (redistribution of wealth), that we can then head into inflation territory, inflation that if left unchecked can lead us into hyperinflation. Some online have been arguing that we are very much heading towards hyperinflation given numerous factors including: our GDP shrinking by over 30% during the second quarter (even if artificially by way of covid) + a deficit to outlay ratio that is topping over 60% (when the hyperinflation threshold is more around 40%) + the obvious devaluation of the US dollar by way of continued QE and lowering of interest rates. In other words, the writing is on the wall for what our future might have in store for us.
VERY Good chat..
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P.S. Apologize for any grammatical errors or slight miscalculations within original post, as I typed this in early during my morning walk and I was still half asleep.
